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The well-defined Tropical Low (98L) continues producing hvy rain, wind and tstorms over N MX and SW TX. Atlantic waking up.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 337 (Nicholas) , Major: 352 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1406 (Michael) Major: 1406 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Next up, Debby
      #69598 - Sun Aug 06 2006 09:01 AM

Hi folks.
Chris washed out yesterday, and will have a hard time recovering (but the remnant low will get a couple days across the Gulf). There are several other areas of interest that have appeared since Friday, and one now is taking the forefront. Deep out in the Atlantic a new invest took shape overnight, 91L, the 12th of the year. It is about 600-700 miles WSW of the Cape Verde Islands, between 30-35W. The circulation is broad but has become detached from the ITCZ since yesterday, and it has some deep convection near the center as well. The upper air environment looks good for it to track WNW and intensify... usually a system at this stage out there is between 12-36 hours from classification, dependent on how quickly the convection can organize around the center. So, later today or tomorrow it is likely we'll see TD 4 and Debby.
Meanwhile there is more going on closer to home. The remnants of Chris, after an impressive convective burst in the evening, are over Western Cuba and in the Florida Straits. The remnant low is now essentially a surface trough, but is tracking WNW and in a more favorable environment than two days ago. It has some chance of redevelopment, but they're not great.
Further northwest, off the Louisiana coast, a broad surface circulation and mid-level low are attended by a persistent area of convection, with a decent upper environment here too. The system is close to the coast and has little time to develop (maybe a day before it moves west and inland over Texas), but has shown quite a bit of resilience for a former mesoscale thunderstorm complex. It also does not have great chances, but combined with those of erstwhile Chris it would not be surprising to see a weak but active system over the Gulf somewhere tomorrow.
Last but not least are three minor features. A well-defined wave nearing the Caribbean has a weak rotation far to the south on its axis--west of Trinidad. It has scant chances. An old frontal boundary is dying off the east coast and has spawned thunderstorms the last two days as it stalls and fades, though nothing currently indicates it will develop a low. Another upper low with two related surface lows are out in the northeastern Atlantic and unlikely to threaten anywhere, but may further develop as a hybrid system over the next few days.
There is maybe only one guaranteed system out there right now, but given the way things look it wouldn't be a huge surprise if we have more even more 'business' to deal with this week.



The features in the Gulf.



And those in the open Atlantic.

AL912006:

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of system

Early dynamic/statistical runs on Invest 91L.

Various Links:
NRL Monterrey
RAMSDIS Satellite Imagery
NASA GHCC Satellite Imagery
Skeetobite's Page
SFMWD Page
MOE Models from FSU
Recent NCEP Model Runs
ECMWF Model

Edited by MikeC (Tue Aug 08 2006 09:13 PM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Next up, Debby [Re: HanKFranK]
      #69604 - Sun Aug 06 2006 09:46 AM

well the GFDL takes 91L up the scale.... gets stronger with time.... Up to NEAR Hurricane in a couple of days...
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.c...;hour=Animation Here are the other runs... Hank can throw them up
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_91.gif

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Aug 06 2006 10:40 AM)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Next up, Debby [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #69605 - Sun Aug 06 2006 10:16 AM

Looking at the morning visible loop, I really don't see what is preventing the NHC from pulling the trigger. There appears to be alot of convection around the LLC (much moreso than Chris had for several days). Could be that there is no LLC and what I'm seeing is just at the mid and upper levels, but it sure looks impressive.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
Re: Next up, Debby [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #69606 - Sun Aug 06 2006 10:21 AM

You guys need to learn how to read Models, The GFDL Model take 91L run 006Z to 66 Miles per hour.

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Next up, Debby [Re: Old Sailor]
      #69607 - Sun Aug 06 2006 10:28 AM

Quote:

You guys need to learn how to read Models, The GFDL Model take 91L run 006Z to 66 Miles per hour.




The model output shows 85.2 knots at 950mb on 00Z11Aug06. Using the standard 80% reduction, that yields 68.16knts at the surface, or 78.38mph.

Well the latest TWO still says development is possible over the next couple of days... considering how long the NHC held onto Chris, they're taking their time with 91L.


--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Sun Aug 06 2006 11:24 AM)


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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
Re: Next up, Debby [Re: Hugh]
      #69610 - Sun Aug 06 2006 10:32 AM

See attached Chart of latest runs.

euler.atmos.colostate.edu


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Next up, Debby [Re: Old Sailor]
      #69611 - Sun Aug 06 2006 10:39 AM

oh...my bad.... i must of missed read this... i thought that this was up or near Hurricane Status on the GFDL? GFDL 114hrs i do notice that this model jumps around in track and intensity... need more runs to see if this can hold.. most of the models do hold a gradual increase in strength... but this was only the first run... lets see what the next 3-4 runs hold.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Aug 06 2006 10:40 AM)


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Cat 5orBust
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 90
Re: Next up, Debby [Re: HanKFranK]
      #69613 - Sun Aug 06 2006 12:48 PM

i know figuring out what the weather pattern will be like in several days is impossible to judge, but with what may soon be debby, wouldn't the blocking high be in place for a while and keep it on a wnw track? i would think that if it were to recurve in the atlantic that it wouldn't do so until it is fairly close to the coastline. ( that is if it doesnt stay south and enter the caribbean) any thoughts or indications on how strong the high will be in place during the next week or so?

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SirCane
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
Re: Next up, Debby [Re: Cat 5orBust]
      #69614 - Sun Aug 06 2006 12:58 PM

I have a feeling we will be tracking this soon-to-be Debby for a long time.

--------------------
Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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Black Pearl
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 32
Loc: Mobile Bay
Re: Next up, Debby [Re: SirCane]
      #69616 - Sun Aug 06 2006 01:50 PM

Floater 2 is now on 91L.

Floater 2

Edited by Black Pearl (Sun Aug 06 2006 01:54 PM)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Next up, Debby [Re: Black Pearl]
      #69617 - Sun Aug 06 2006 02:01 PM

Quote:

Floater 2 is now on 91L.

Floater 2




Not nearly as impressive now as it was earlier today.

Edit: Some deep convection has now formed near the apparent LLC, though... but there appears to be a good deal of shear.

Edit 2: Now, I'm not so sure about the shear. In fact, in the latest IR loop (19:15 UTC) I can almost detect a hint of a circulation. It'll be interesting to see what the next TWO says about this, assuming they don't pull the trigger (which doesn't look likely since NRL hasn't posted it).

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Sun Aug 06 2006 04:00 PM)


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Myles
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 80
Loc: SW FL
Re: Next up, Debby [Re: Hugh]
      #69618 - Sun Aug 06 2006 02:32 PM

Thunderstorms have dimished a bit, but they appear to be popping up again around the west side of the circulation. The center is very broad and disorginized, but I think if some good convection could fire up around the center of 91L then we could see our next TD soon. The dry air to the north could inhibit the build up of convection though, so nothing appears certain right now.

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Randrew
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 109
Loc: Stuart, Florida
Re: Next up, Debby [Re: Hugh]
      #69620 - Sun Aug 06 2006 04:13 PM

91L is appearing much more together this afternoon than earlier. I would suspect tonight will reveal what could be a TD by midday Monday.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: Next up, Debby [Re: Randrew]
      #69621 - Sun Aug 06 2006 04:36 PM


I think the circulation is right of the burst. It's actually a defined circulation on the Rainbow IR. Go check it out.
If it continues the process tonight then it should be classified as TD by tommorrow or Tuesday.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rb.html

Looks like it is getting better organized. I think it will be well organized into a TD tommorrow afternoon. Lets see if it holds.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5

Edited by allan (Sun Aug 06 2006 05:17 PM)


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weather_wise911
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 82
Re: Next up, Debby [Re: Randrew]
      #69622 - Sun Aug 06 2006 05:21 PM

Actually...... in my opinion....... its about the same. Possibly even a bit less organized than this morning.

Convection is located more to the west of the low (which is still very braud), and it seems wind shear will persist through at least tomorrow.

I think it will be at least 36 HRS. before we have a Tropical Depression.


Have a good evening.

WW-911

Edited by weather_wise911 (Sun Aug 06 2006 05:23 PM)


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: Next up, Debby [Re: weather_wise911]
      #69623 - Sun Aug 06 2006 05:35 PM

Little note on X-Chris... is not expected to emerge in the gulf anymore. Words from the NHC. So we're all good for now till Debby comes into play this week. Model trends are showing it moving into the Carribean... no shear and very warm waters. So a hurricane is deffinatly likely if it takes that direction though if it moves north of the Islands it may be some time till we see a hurricane because of these big ULLs and high pressures. .

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Next up, Debby [Re: weather_wise911]
      #69625 - Sun Aug 06 2006 06:14 PM

To be honest, I wished it was developing faster. The GFDL has depicted a weakness that may allow 91L to be fish. If it develops slowly then its less likely that a developing 91L would make that connection.

At minimum, that could equal trouble for our friends in the islands.

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


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samiam
Unregistered




Re: Next up, Debby [Re: stormchazer]
      #69626 - Sun Aug 06 2006 06:26 PM

what just happened there. This morning NHC was saying how this storm is 650 miles away from Cape Verde now its 800 miles which should develop.. Is this storm moving east or are there storms 200 miles apart from one another... This is confusing.. I thought 91L was 650 miles away this morning..

Edited by Storm Cooper (Sun Aug 06 2006 06:39 PM)


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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Next up, Debby [Re: samiam]
      #69627 - Sun Aug 06 2006 06:51 PM

Quote:

what just happened there. This morning NHC was saying how this storm is 650 miles away from Cape Verde now its 800 miles which should develop.. Is this storm moving east or are there storms 200 miles apart from one another... This is confusing.. I thought 91L was 650 miles away this morning..




It makes sense to me. Remember that the Cape Verdes are just off Africa. 91L is moving west away from Africa so it it stands to reason that the distance is greater this afternoon then it was this morning.

Are you getting the CV mixed up with the Leewards or Antilles by chance?

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Next up, Debby [Re: samiam]
      #69628 - Sun Aug 06 2006 06:52 PM

91L is same system...butmoving away from the Verde's...It was already west of those islands and moving to the west.

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