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The well-defined Tropical Low (98L) continues producing hvy rain, wind and tstorms over N MX and SW TX. Atlantic waking up.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 337 (Nicholas) , Major: 352 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1406 (Michael) Major: 1406 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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JOC
Unregistered




Re: 91L [Re: Margie]
      #69782 - Tue Aug 08 2006 08:28 AM

I just noticed again that the Dvorak t# is now 1.5! After reading all the post and observations plus Dr. Lyons comments from last night, it appeared to be losing it tropical characteristics even on what I could see on sat. presentations. My question is am I/we missing something or is it getting better organized?

JOC


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Steve H1
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Re: 91L [Re: JOC]
      #69786 - Tue Aug 08 2006 10:02 AM

Looks like the environment around 91L has settled down. There is still dry air shown on the WV loop, but I believe as this area encounters warmer SSTs we will see convection begin to build, and a TD, eventually Debby will come out of this. It is showing convection over the LLC, and it has slowed its forward movement. I really don't see any reason for this not to develop as it moves west. Cheers!!

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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
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Re: 91L [Re: Steve H1]
      #69787 - Tue Aug 08 2006 10:26 AM

Dr Lyons is a great Hurricane Expert but I think he was a bit wrong on the speed of the mid level spin disturbance. It has now slowed down enough for 91L to catch it this morning, convection is doing its things around the center again... Comeback? Maybe so. It is still an area of interest. It could still become a TD later today and from what i'm seeing it is organizing again.
Heres the Rainbow IR
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rb.html
See how its catching up with the mid level spin?

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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cuidado
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
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Loc: Sarasota, FL
Re: Next up, Debby [Re: HanKFranK]
      #69788 - Tue Aug 08 2006 10:28 AM

RE: The feature you describe as "off the Louisiana coast, a broad surface circulation and mid-level low ... attended by a persistent area of convection, with a decent upper environment ... has shown quite a bit of resilience for a former mesoscale thunderstorm complex" in my memory developed from a cold core low that passed over the state of FL from the Bahamas late last week. I think it was the third or fourth CCL I've watched (in amazement) this season. Most have formed over the islands ahead of the end of a cold front pushing into the Atlantic. One hung stationary then literally zipped straight south to Cuba and seemed to "bounce" straight back north, then wandered westward over the keys into the Gulf. Another, much earlier in the season, maintained its integrity for more than a week as it moved south and west into the Bay of Campeche before it bestirred itself and moved north to come ashore near the TexMex border. The cores of these lows seem to be drier than dust. On this am's water vapor image (GOES) there appeared another trough that seemed ripe to repeat, but now appears to be filling in rather than breaking off. I've lived in SW FL for a long time and have never noticed any similar repetitive occurance of such an unusual phenomenon - have you?

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HanKFranK
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stuff [Re: cuidado]
      #69792 - Tue Aug 08 2006 11:21 AM

if by cold core low you mean upper lows.. then yeah, they back westward across the gulf all summer. nothing unusual.
91L's T# popped back up to 1.5, because of a convective burst on its western side. those T#s are very convection dependent... and don't really account for how well organized the circulation is, just the convection.
it looks about like yesterday, really. same basic synoptic situation, just slightly warmer SSTs. surface circulation is still a closed low. if enough convection is added, it becomes a depression (and maybe starts some convective feedback and starts to strengthen). otherwise it continues westward and spins down.
anybody who hasn't taken a look at the westpac ought to. they had three systems develop almost simultaneously earlier, and a huge easterly surge is creating tons of convection over there. if this is migratory MJO activity, we may be due for a very active turning of the month.
HF 1521z08august


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SirCane
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 249
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Re: stuff [Re: HanKFranK]
      #69793 - Tue Aug 08 2006 11:32 AM

91L does look better this morning. It will be interesting to see what happens.

--------------------
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MapMaster
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 138
Re: 91L...L as in eLongated [Re: HanKFranK]
      #69794 - Tue Aug 08 2006 11:34 AM

I think sometimes we all (including me) just parrot what we see other people saying on the board. It just gets repeated and repeated...may have once been correct, but over time....

The current case relates to the statements of how " well organized" 91L is. I say not. It's been elongated, mostly east-west, since yesterday. This is obviously interfering in it's development and is evidence of shear (from the east). It's almost opened up into a wave a couple of times.

NRL may say 1.5, but as HF said, that relates more to convection, as opposed to structure. Anyway, it is trying for a burst now, if it doesn't make it by this evening, absent of an unforseen environmental change, "it's a deader".

MM


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stormtiger
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
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Loc: Baton Rouge, La.
Re: 91L is getting ready to be hammered from the SE again. [Re: SirCane]
      #69795 - Tue Aug 08 2006 11:35 AM

Dry air and SE flow are coming back. I suspect this afternoon will be a replay of yesterday afternoon.

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI1_wv_loop.gif

cooltiger


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doug
Weather Analyst


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Posts: 1006
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Re: stuff [Re: HanKFranK]
      #69796 - Tue Aug 08 2006 11:36 AM

The timing of the upsurge in MJO would be about right on schedule...always gets active around Sept 1...
TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) still posts as of 8/4 prediction for above normal activity 16/8/3-4. We will have lots to watch over the next month and a half or so if the numbers of all the experts pan out.

91L has too much southerly shear to hold up...looks poor to me.

--------------------
doug

Edited by doug (Tue Aug 08 2006 11:40 AM)


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
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Re: stuff [Re: doug]
      #69797 - Tue Aug 08 2006 11:45 AM

Much well organized than yesterday night where we almost wrote it off. Convection is slowly bursting near the center. If it wraps around like HF says we will most deffinatly have a TD. Which I think may be happening today. The NHC still says it is a well defined circulation and could be a TD in later today. Outflow is ragged looking but before TDs develope you see this alot. So I don't know about you guys but I deffinatly will eye this thing the whole day and see what happens tonight.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
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Re: stuff [Re: doug]
      #69798 - Tue Aug 08 2006 11:46 AM

Anybody have any thoughts on this activity off the NC coast?
One of the NC early morning NWS discussions talked about a retrograde to the coast.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
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Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: stuff [Re: Ed in Va]
      #69799 - Tue Aug 08 2006 11:50 AM

Naa probably one of those bursts the dissipate stuff. Well.. keep an eye on it but I don't think we'll have anything out of that. Though Beryl developed out of something like that so just watch it. What was Chris looks a bit impressive enough to maybe be classified as a TD near Mexico
heres the image...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/vis-l.jpg
Well probably not a TD but i'm surprised it gathered that much convection...

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
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Re: stuff [Re: Ed in Va]
      #69800 - Tue Aug 08 2006 12:36 PM

I don't believe I've been parroting anybody. I really don't have time to read many posts. But regardless, I still believe the environment, although not great, is not terribly negative for development; some dry air, a little shear, but the shears let up a bit. Could be just that its not the right timing. I still give this Invest a better than even chance as it migrates west. I think you're onto something HF. I was looking at the NRL site when I saw the Pacific cyclones you were mentioning backed up to each other. We essentially "missed" the last MJO pulse in the Atlantic due to the hostile environmental conditions. The Pacific activity may well be a prelude to what begins here in the next couple of weeks, and if teleconnections have any merit, ridging in the western Atlantic may be strong. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Cheers!!

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hurr789
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 2
91l [Re: Steve H1]
      #69801 - Tue Aug 08 2006 01:12 PM

do you all think 91l going to be TD soon i notice dry air might be moving alway from 91l or this this area going have same fate as chris

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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
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Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: 91l [Re: hurr789]
      #69802 - Tue Aug 08 2006 01:21 PM

I do see convection trying to wrap around again though not strengthening. It looks more defined since Sunday... I think by 5 or 8 a TD will be announced. If it continues what it's doing at least. Big computer models tear it apart while other models make a strong TS or Hurricane and heads it to Florida by next week. Something to watch. So far it's doing an Irene and constantly blowing up and dying out. Though Irene was a TS by that time. Still something to watch
New rainbow IR...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rb.html
Look closely at the last frame... see a swirl of green clouds??

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5

Edited by allan (Tue Aug 08 2006 01:23 PM)


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harmlc.ath.cx
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 54
Loc: Longwood
Re: 91l [Re: hurr789]
      #69803 - Tue Aug 08 2006 01:37 PM

The conditions in the surrounding area and impeding path of 91L is conducive for development, but 91L lacks one element that is preventing it from being named a Tropical Depression, and that's strong convection near the center of circulation. The best time for 91L to develop into a TD would be now, as its encountering high SSTs and shear is minimal. There is some dry air impeding 91L from gathering convection however. Further down the road the environment will begin to become more hostile to 91L, with wind shear picking up due to an upper-level trough situated over Puerto Rico that should cause some strong upper-level westerly winds.

Edited by harmlc.ath.cx (Tue Aug 08 2006 01:41 PM)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: 91l [Re: harmlc.ath.cx]
      #69804 - Tue Aug 08 2006 01:49 PM

The system east of the windward islands shows no sign of getting better organized...infact its pressures are up to 1011mb from 1009 and more convection 2 days ago....... Some dry air and high pressures surrounding the system is making anything in the Atlantic difficult to develop.

The season as been stuck with upperlows.....dry air...and unseasonably higher pressures in the Atlantic waters.


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stormtiger
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 73
Loc: Baton Rouge, La.
Re: There is little left to develope [Re: scottsvb]
      #69805 - Tue Aug 08 2006 02:00 PM

Much like yesterday afternoon what thunderstorm activity 91L had has been blown NW. 91L is not getting into a more favorable environment, the environment ahead is just is bad. Southerly shear and dry air South and to a lesser extent the West aren't doing 91L any favors.

91L has a long gauntlet to run, but I can't see much happening unless it gets into the Western Carribean, but I think it is going to be too far North for that to happen.

I think Scott is right on, too much dry air, too many ULLs, and high pressures across the Atlantic are sifling any kind of development. If thinks don't improve, MJO or no MJO, august won't be very active.

Hopefully all this will mean another lowering of projections next go round. That would be most welcome at the gas pumps, across the GOM and Florida. We need a rest.


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hurr789
Registered User


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Re: There is little left to develope [Re: stormtiger]
      #69806 - Tue Aug 08 2006 02:09 PM

so 91l wont be TD4 any time soon or never?

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stormtiger
Weather Hobbyist


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Loc: Baton Rouge, La.
Re: Yesterday morning I thought we'd have one today. [Re: hurr789]
      #69807 - Tue Aug 08 2006 02:16 PM

but dry air and southerly shear knocked it back and it's less organized than it was yesterday. Today I saw a slight comeback that under better conditions would allow for slow development, but once again the same pattern as yesterday has appeared.

Looking at the visible and AVN floater along with various water vapor loops and you can see all the problems around 91L.

I see liitle chance of a TD any time soon.


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