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The well-defined Tropical Low (98L) continues producing heavy training rain with isolated tornadoes also possible today in S TX
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 335 (Nicholas) , Major: 351 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1405 (Michael) Major: 1405 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4441
Loc: Orlando, FL
Nothing Immediate
      #69862 - Wed Aug 09 2006 07:19 AM

Update - Sunday - 08/13, 2:30PM (EDT)
Two new Invest areas are now being monitored. Invest 92L entering the eastern Caribbean Sea - primarily an upper level feature with a weak low level circulation, and Invest 93L - a weak circulation along a front off the southeast coast. Both features have a long way to go - just something to watch for now. The Skeetobyte model plots have been updated below.
ED

Original Post
There is nothing immediately set up for development right now. After Chris last week, things have been stirring, but nothing is getting together.

The system known as 91L has lost a lot of the convection it once had and is entering an area that isn't good for development, so it's more likely not to become anything, but still it's worth watching for a few days. This system is a bit more interesting this morning, but it has been going up and down for a while now. With the area ahead of it being as unfavorable as it is, development isn't all that likely.

The wave near the Bahamas isn't in a good spot to develop, and another system in the Eastern Atlantic isn't organzied enough to consider for development in the next few days, but may happen later.

This year has been quite a contrast to last year, in that systems have been slow to develop, and when they do, not holding together or becoming very strong. Lets hope this trend continues for the rest of the season.

AL922006

AL932006
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of system

Various Links:
NRL Monterrey
RAMSDIS Satellite Imagery
NASA GHCC Satellite Imagery
Skeetobite's Page
SFMWD Page
MOE Models from FSU
Recent NCEP Model Runs
ECMWF Model

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Aug 13 2006 02:38 PM)


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bhnole
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 11
Loc: Maitland, FL
Re: Nothing Immediate [Re: MikeC]
      #69863 - Wed Aug 09 2006 08:00 AM

For a system that has been on life support for days now, 91L had an impressive convective blowup overnight.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

Will be interesting to see if it can hold it's convection today.


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Nothing Immediate [Re: MikeC]
      #69864 - Wed Aug 09 2006 08:03 AM

i'll lead off by saying that for some reason 91L is flaring again this morning. couldn't see any cumulus lines last night or that earlier vortex... but there's still turning in the low level wind field down there today, 20kt SFC winds out of the convection, and ambient pressures 1011-1012 mb. i don't get this thing.
it is a little closer to the upper low to its northwest. guessing the flare is being aided by diffluence as the low is trying to pull away... but 91L has stayed on a track further south and faster than anticipated. times could easily get tougher ahead.
HF 1202z09august


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Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: Nothing Immediate [Re: HanKFranK]
      #69865 - Wed Aug 09 2006 08:50 AM

Yes i see that as well HF, there is definitely a LL circulation underneath that convection, albeit to the north side of the circulation (don't know if there's still southerly shear). But this is running south of some of the model projection. Maybe NRL was quick to take it off the Invest chart. Still is chugging along. Cheers!!

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MapMaster
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 138
Re: HUH? [Re: HanKFranK]
      #69866 - Wed Aug 09 2006 09:36 AM

I am with you HF....seems like we are back in the old NHC cycle I have talked about here before...as soon as NHC says it will develop, it doesn't...as soon as they write it off, it develops!

Is it developing???Hmmmm

I was the one saying that 91L was going down, and that seemed born out last night. What I see this morning is NOT what I expected to see based on the language on the TWO last night and this morning!

It's a conundrum, which just shows that little saying about laymen, scientists and God on the bottom of ...who is it that that puts that at the bottom of their posts?--is correct, of course! We guess, scientists predict...God commands! We can only watch the results.

In this case, we are all just watching...figuring out what will happen next, c'est impossible, fellow travellers!

MM


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: HUH? [Re: MapMaster]
      #69867 - Wed Aug 09 2006 10:00 AM

Nicole Mitchel of the Hurricane Hunters says there flying into it to see if there's another LLC. Which there may be. If thats so you deffinatly can call it a deppression. Now when it hits the Islands if they find winds higher than that should be upgraded. Funny... when I stop watching the storm it blows up again. Is'nt that weird. This blow up is the most biggest and impressive one i've seen on the invest yet.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rb.html

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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LaVidaCyclone
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 30
Loc: SW FL
Re: HUH? [Re: MapMaster]
      #69868 - Wed Aug 09 2006 10:03 AM

I see that 91L is below the SAL. Has this always been the case, or is this a new development?

Current SAL imagery:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/winds/m8split.html

--------------------
2004: Alex, Charley, Frances, Ivan, Jeanne

2005: Dennis, Katrina, Ophelia, Rita, Wilma

2006:?

Edited by LaVidaCyclone (Wed Aug 09 2006 10:03 AM)


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
Re: HUH? [Re: MapMaster]
      #69869 - Wed Aug 09 2006 10:03 AM

One of the NRL sites says 30 knots and 1009 mb this morning. The other site isnt showing 91L at all anymore. NHC says it is diminishing but has recon set for 2 pm today. Strange....

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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sara33
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: St. Pete,
Re: HUH? [Re: NewWatcher]
      #69870 - Wed Aug 09 2006 10:17 AM

When looking at the GFDL there is a "fine mesh grid" for 91L.

It reads Min. Pressure 1010.9
Max 950 MB Wind 34.9 knots

Is this an accurate reading of the pressure & wind speed right now? Just curious. I have never been able to quite understand this one.
Thanks everyone!
Christine

that's just what the GFDL model is initialized with on that run. probably not too far removed from reality. mind that those winds would be above the surface. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Aug 09 2006 10:36 AM)


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CoalCracker
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 96
Loc: Cape Coral, FL
Re: HUH? [Re: NewWatcher]
      #69871 - Wed Aug 09 2006 10:32 AM

Latest TAFB Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Danger Area shows possible development of 91L within the next 36 hours. T numbers increased from too weak to 1. Should be interesting to see what the next TWO has to say and what the status of today's scheduled recon will be. Persistent little system.

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: HUH? [Re: sara33]
      #69872 - Wed Aug 09 2006 10:34 AM

the recon was scheduled yesterday. when the plan for tomorrow comes out, it will have a tagline saying whether they called it off for today. sometimes they do that, but probably not this time.
the buoy 91L passed south of this morning has been reporting 25kt winds at intervals. it is showing a few signs of life, but has done this before and then abated. all it would really take right now is a confirmed closed low to be a depression, but hard to see more than a weak system out of this if anything... for at least the next few days.
HF 1434z09august


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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: Nothing Immediate [Re: MikeC]
      #69873 - Wed Aug 09 2006 10:35 AM

Why is the area 91L is entering not good for development? And why is it stilll keeping its convection? What is the number one reason
storms are not developing (in relation to last year)? Is it my imagination or is 91L moving along at a pretty good pace?


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: Nothing Immediate [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #69874 - Wed Aug 09 2006 10:39 AM

Quote:

Why is the area 91L is entering not good for development? And why is it stilll keeping its convection? What is the number one reason
storms are not developing (in relation to last year)? Is it my imagination or is 91L moving along at a pretty good pace?




The area that 91L was projected to move in is not favorable but the center is way south then they thought. Should be that little swirl just left of the blossom. It's very interesting. I think instead of finding TD4 they will find Debby with 40mph winds by 2 p.m.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html


--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5

Edited by allan (Wed Aug 09 2006 10:44 AM)


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
RECON NOT CANCELLED [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #69875 - Wed Aug 09 2006 10:43 AM

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED THIS
MORNING...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL
REACH THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR STORM HAS FORMED. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
something immediate? [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #69876 - Wed Aug 09 2006 10:56 AM

mind, even if this thing develops.. it's scraping along the very edge of a higher shear zone. allan is right.. if there' s a center it may have reformed early this morning (or somehow stayed concealed under the outflow decks from convective bursts last night), it is staying further to the south.
the forward speed has been increasing since yesterday and is now exceeding 20mph. this would be dangerously fast for a weak tropical cyclone. the trades are pushing it so fast that it helps increase storm relative shear and makes it difficult to remain closed.
we've seen waves in the past come barrelling into the islands (usually in july and the first half of august) during synoptic patterns like these, generating t.s. force winds but having only a vortmax aloft and a sharp windshift at the surface. 91L may be one of those... while it clearly had a closed surface low 24-72 hours ago, back then it was only doing 10-15 mph.
the upper air progs don't look very good for it. there is diffluence aloft, but it just under the base of a nike-swoosh shaped TUTT section that is weakening and reorienting as a sharp north-south upper trough... if it were just sliding along slowly this feature would likely reorient in front of 91L... not affecting it too harshly. over the next 2-3 days ridging should increase in the northern caribbean and this would create a favorable environment for the system. it has to run through an upper trough at high speed during the meanwhile though, so it's doubtful that a closed system would remain over the weekend, regardless.
gut tells me that even if recon goes in and finds a closed system or even a tropical storm... that it will tear right back open during the next day or two.
HF 1456z09august


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: Nothing Immediate [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #69877 - Wed Aug 09 2006 11:28 AM

I think I found the possible center which from here looks totaly covered with convection. It may not be the center but it's possible. Not saying it is but it's possible
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
You see the swirl in the center left part of the blob? It's in the blob but still hard to see. Gonna have to wait and see. Though thats where my opinion of the circulation is.. Anyone agree?

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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stormtiger
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 73
Loc: Baton Rouge, La.
Re:immediate will not survive, weak might [Re: HanKFranK]
      #69878 - Wed Aug 09 2006 11:46 AM

Ahead of 91L is some pretty bad stuff.

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI1_wv_loop.gif

If 91L stays weak and blast under all the upper level crap ahead and gets to an area with moister air like in the Western Carribean, there could be trouble. I can't see a TD of a TS making it that far.

The flow is more zonal than yesterday and once again for the third straight morning 91L looks like a player, but I suspect another decline after lunch (CST). It does appear more circular and the storms are forming around what we suspect to be the center, but there is still dry air getting into the circulation and some shear.

cooltiger


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Randrew
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 109
Loc: Stuart, Florida
Debby [Re: stormtiger]
      #69879 - Wed Aug 09 2006 11:52 AM

Navy has 91L now at 35kts...40mph. Pressure 1000. Recon is the only thing NHC will wait for before classifying this as Debby. Should go right to TS status if all this holds true for the flight today.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...mp;STYLE=tables


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
barbados obs [Re: stormtiger]
      #69880 - Wed Aug 09 2006 11:53 AM

over the next couple of hours.. right around the time recon is supposed to get there... the obs from the buoy east of and from barbados will probably tell us whether the system is more than a feisty wave or not. based on pressure trends and how little the winds are turning at buoys, i'd bet it isn't closed. wouldn't bet the farm yet, though.
HF 1553z09august


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re:immediate will not survive, weak might [Re: stormtiger]
      #69881 - Wed Aug 09 2006 11:57 AM

Well looking at the latest satellite images. So broad, may just be a powerfull wave for now. Thought it would be something else but new images shows not much of a circulation. It is a huge blob though. Has not weakened yet. We'll see what the Hurricane Hunters find later at 2 p.m. I could be wrong, it may be something but by the way it looks right now, pretty sick deppression if so.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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