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The well-defined Tropical Low (98L) continues producing heavy training rain with isolated tornadoes also possible today in S TX
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 335 (Nicholas) , Major: 351 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1405 (Michael) Major: 1405 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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GuppieGrouper
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Re:immediate will not survive, weak might [Re: SirCane]
      #69923 - Wed Aug 09 2006 05:51 PM

Quote:

If something like this can't develop in August then this season is going to be weak-like 1997. We're due for a weak one.




It is a shame that Hurricanes do not operate on the logic of humans If P>Q= No hurricane. Unfortunately logic has little to do with it. I hope that the hurricane season will conform to no dangerous storms

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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meto23
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Re:immediate will not survive, weak might *DELETED* *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: SirCane]
      #69924 - Wed Aug 09 2006 06:10 PM

This post deleted for breaking posting rule: - Public Personal attacks on other users will not be permitted.

Please read rules before posting..
Click here for rules

Thank you

Edited by John C (Wed Aug 09 2006 06:45 PM)


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sara33
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Re:immediate will not survive, weak might [Re: meto23]
      #69925 - Wed Aug 09 2006 06:28 PM

Sorry Mods,,,
I would have PM'd but the user is unregistered.

I disagree 100%, as I have read all of the posts and I find them very helpful! Just because someone is sharing an opinion does not mean that it is not meaningful.

Just another thank you to everyone for sharing all of your insight , opinions, and knowledge with us!!

Christine


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SebastianLou
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Re:immediate will not survive, weak might [Re: sara33]
      #69930 - Wed Aug 09 2006 07:20 PM

I think 91L is going too fast to do anything, this sure aint last year when it seemed as though everything developed.
I'm not sure, but isn't it that if 91L slows down, it would be more likely to develope? Everything seems relatively quiet in the tropics other than this feature, am I correct?


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Storm Hunter
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Re:immediate will not survive, weak might [Re: SebastianLou]
      #69931 - Wed Aug 09 2006 07:50 PM

like how SFWMD updated there graphics some.. new color's, look, and more models, etc.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_91.gif

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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allan
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Re:immediate will not survive, weak might [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #69932 - Wed Aug 09 2006 08:07 PM

Ya and I also see they are pointing the storm to the Carribean. Thats a NO NO for us. Looks like we'll be talking about 91L for a long time. Like we have'nt already lol. Now thats it's going to go under the UUL we may see a Debby out of this. Tom Sorals (Central Florida Channel 6 Meteorologist) who is great on predicting storms says that we could still be looking at a TD or Debby in 24 hours. Especially when it's entering a dry but still a very good area for development. Please keep that on mind.
" Don't forget now that the strongest storm ever in the Atlantic Basin developed in the western Carribean"

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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dem05
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Re:immediate will not survive, weak might [Re: allan]
      #69938 - Wed Aug 09 2006 08:47 PM Attachment (480 downloads)

Hi Folks,
I've been monitoring the posts through the day. I have a different take on this sytem than most, so I'd ask you to review the attatchment and use the bullets below as a reference. The attatchment is somewhat busy, but I'd like for you to visualize another possibility...that91L is not in that bad of shape...in fact, it is slowly setting up to get going. We shall see, for now...this is a different viewpoint.

1.) 91L today is not actually the original 91L. Last night, the surface circulation of it died. More so than the dry air and shear, it was the east-west elongation that killed it off...It just stretched itself to death. If you were up early this morning, you would know that the 91L we see today is more so the child of 91L. This area sprang into action on the front running portion of the old circulation (about 200 miles or so west of old 91L).
2.) The mid level system remains well in tact tonight.
3.) Low to mid level moisture channels are in place to the SE and SW.
4.) All Season we tracked carts before the horse...low level systems entering dry air and being chased by their t-storms that were behind it to the east. Today, T-storms raced ahead to the west. Realistically, this isn't a bad thing for this systems future. Like a team of football lineman, the t-storms have actually interrupted the downstream a bit and offered a more favoable moisture laden atmosphere to run in. These t-storms are about to run into a convergance zone, don't expect them to get much further than that (The convergance zone should act like the defensive lineman). These t-storms should fade in the coming hours leaving the mid level feature as the best game in town for t-storm development as the nocturnal-diurnal pattern sets in.
5. That convergence zone, along with the setup from todays t-storms may set up to have placed the system in the rocking chair...It's own environment where it can do what it wants for now if it chooses to organize. Once again...we'll see.


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allan
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Re:immediate will not survive, weak might [Re: dem05]
      #69939 - Wed Aug 09 2006 08:52 PM

I agree with you, I believe that a new low is currently developing and that could mean business for the Carribean. It skipped to the south of all the shear. The only thing that will prevent it from doing it's thing is dry air. Which may or may not lighten up. Tommorrows gonna be another interesting day for us trackers. I have a feeling that a blow could occur as early as tommorrow morning or tonight and possibly create Debby! Though it may not do anything at all. Storms have a mind of there own these days.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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Hugh
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Re:immediate will not survive, weak might [Re: allan]
      #69940 - Wed Aug 09 2006 09:07 PM

Well, 91L is now visible on the long range radar out of San Juan, and there is a bit of a twist in the radar presentation, but not much of one. Of course, the low center (be it at the upper levels or the lower levels) is a long way from the radar and so the rotation may be more than is evident. The system has completely moved past the floater on SSD, but NRL still shows it. Unfortunately NRL does not have a working animation right now (only a single image).

If a LLC forms, I'd guess it will be near the convection south of Puerto Rico, rather than near the Lesser Antilles. It will be interesting to see what tomorrow brings, but I wouldn't be surprised if it never closed off the LLC.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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dem05
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Re:immediate will not survive, weak might [Re: Hugh]
      #69941 - Wed Aug 09 2006 09:16 PM

What you have referenced is not totally out of the realm of possibility either. There was a "kink" in the convergence zone earlier today, right about where the heaviest thunderstorms are right now. It's not impossible that the mid level was just left behind. However, I think the primary area to focus on for now is the mid level low over by the central leewards. Even though the heaviest t-storms are south of Puerto Rico, I don't expect that to last and I think the focus will come back to the mid level feature. In fact, some new t-storms are starting to fire to the north and southwestern outsirts of that area now. Also, I don't see anything on radar that is too alarming for the area referenced south of PR...And it's lookking well above the surface from that far out. As far as the floater, I don't know what happened...it was right over 91L til about an hour ago. It has been refocused further east. Maybe they know something we do not.

Edited by dem05 (Wed Aug 09 2006 09:18 PM)


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Storm Hunter
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Re:immediate will not survive, weak might [Re: dem05]
      #69945 - Wed Aug 09 2006 10:41 PM

looks like this one is going to be a cane down the road? IF IT DEVELOPES!!! which i think it has a good chance... THIS ONE (91L) needs to be watched... things could get interesting this weekend... While right now the wave looks pretty bad.... but that could change in the near future!
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/intensity1.png
they ran Tropical Runs at 00tuc
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/RMTC_BAR_2km_ir2.html

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Wed Aug 09 2006 10:54 PM)


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scottsvb
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Re:immediate will not survive, weak might [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #69947 - Wed Aug 09 2006 11:35 PM

What I see happening to the overall pattern is that there are many areas of Dry air associated with higher then normal pressures throughout the Atlantic basin......A strong surge from a ridge to 91Ls north is pushing it along near 20kt......development if any will be by Friday closer to Jamaica.......but I still say its doubtfull.

I been doubtfull on alot of stuff this year...the dry air and upper lows with the higher then normal pressures for this time of year is really taking it toll....especially the high pressures and upper lows.... but I see a pattern change in a couple weeks....best chance to get anything going will be maybe something coming down not into the gulf ( since the ridge is and will be dominite for the next 2-3 weeks over the southern 1/3rd but maybe coming off the east coast.....break away system may rotate sw or then west feeling the southern ridge and maybe challenging forecasters for Florida or the SE coast to NC in a week or 2.... There is nothing in the models showing a Named system coming ashore or anything...just looking at data that may develop...

I need to learn like the NHC and many forecasters on how to predict a storms intensity without guessing and getting it right.....but Im pretty accurate on where systems go.....there just hasnt been anything out there except the A storm to forecast.....the other 2 were obvious to most on direction... interesting thing on Chris was how the models showed the weakening and I saw it with the dry air and upper low influence.....but never thought it would be 60mph.....

Anyways if Im wrong then so be it..but conditions off the Se coast should be favorible in the next week.


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dem05
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Re:immediate will not survive, weak might [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #69948 - Wed Aug 09 2006 11:37 PM Attachment (433 downloads)

Some time has passed and I have a follow up attatchment for you.Here's some notes to go along with it...On a side note, remeber it's not 2005, systems may evolve slower than last year,

1.) Mid level Low is now near St, Lucia and still holding it's own in relative terms.
2.) The Football Lineman analogy I made seems to be holding for now with one exception...The t-storms on the northern end are dying out on the convergence, bit the ones to the west keep going. I don't expect this to last all night, but it is expanding the area ahead of 91L for now and there is something going on at upper levels too (next point).
3.) Upper levels (Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html ) , a cuttoff (upper low) is north of barely north of the virgin Islands. 91 L is moving south of it...shear not as bad as could have been. The westerly flow may be providing difluence to the linebackers to the west of 91L, but as they are moving west, the TUTT seems to be too in the Carribean. The TUTT and the Upper Low should seperate, upper level dynamics have a potential of improving by morning or there after.
4.) Also, upper air dynamics will give weather to PR and the V.I. (per 10:30 TWO), but expect the monitor area to be further south.
The linemen t-storms are establishing a slightly better playing field than I expected in that they have punched further west. There system may slowly gather more tomorrow, the environment may increase in "friendliness", and don't be surprised if the flight is not cancelled in the afternoon and they find something.

Edited by dem05 (Wed Aug 09 2006 11:44 PM)


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dem05
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Re:immediate will not survive, weak might [Re: dem05]
      #69949 - Wed Aug 09 2006 11:49 PM

P.S. Gang...I did want to say, if the t-storms south of PR do not die off, then my analysis may not be totally wrong, but any call for development would be a bust. There would be too much going on too close for anything concentrated to get together. That would be a game breaker for the next day or so.

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danielwAdministrator
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91L [Re: dem05]
      #69951 - Thu Aug 10 2006 12:10 AM

Good reading material here. You all are hard at it.

I'm with you on the Mid-level circulation. (Although I haven't looked at the latest sat shots).

San Juan VAD Profiler indicates somewhat of a Low pressure system passing through to the South of Puerto Rico at this time.
Over the last hour. Winds have veered from NE at 20kt to ENE at 20kts. Max wind of 27kts at 4000ft above the surface. I have discovered the San Juan-JUA radar is high on a mountain. So the actual surface winds are not being sampled. (I'll have to check the airports, buoys and Cman stations for that.)
Just West of due South at 100nm, radar is indicating echo tops max at 57,000ft. Impressive wave!
San Juan Long range radar loop-gif format
The 1045AM EDT RECON Plan of the Day for Aug 11th, indicates NHC is still in the 50/ 50 mode on this system.
Recon is tasked with
. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT ONE........................FLIGHT TWO
A. 11/0000Z........................A. 11/1200Z
B. AFXXX 03DDA INVEST.......B. AFXXX 0404A CYCLONE
C. 10/2300Z........................C. 11/1000Z
D. 15.5N 67.0W....................D. 16.0N 70.5W
E. 10/2300Z TO 11/0300Z......E. 11/1100Z TO 11/1500Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT.............F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Notice the change from INVEST to CYCLONE. That would indicate a closed Low Pressure system. Of at least Tropical Depression status. (Depends on the wind speeds also.)


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Genesis
Weather Guru


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Re:immediate will not survive, weak might [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #69952 - Thu Aug 10 2006 12:22 AM

Quote:

looks like this one is going to be a cane down the road? IF IT DEVELOPES!!! which i think it has a good chance... THIS ONE (91L) needs to be watched... things could get interesting this weekend... While right now the wave looks pretty bad.... but that could change in the near future!
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/intensity1.png
they ran Tropical Runs at 00tuc
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/RMTC_BAR_2km_ir2.html



I really don't like that Canadian Clipper..... and the bad news is that its been reasonably right often enough to bother me.

The "easy" models are usually untrustworthy, and its interesting that none of the other globals are finding any staying power on this thing.

If you look at the WV loop at http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html there's an obvious ULL in the gulf roughly south of the AL/MS line by a couple hundred miles, moving to the NNW and losing some of its definition. If that thing was to drill down it could be trouble - what's keeping it from doing so is the STRONG high to the north of it. The convergence is what kicked off the severe storms near us today, and might tomorrow - but then its outta here it appears..... That suits me just fine, as I don't think anyone down here wants to see anything get organized south of NO!

There's a slug of dry air over Hispanola right now, but that appears to be moving off to the west and looks to be far enough in front of our wave that its not going to "prong" it like happened to Chris. Interestingly enough it looks like the wave has been impacted by this however, in that the last few frames of the IR loop seem to show a flattening (more westward) movement - althought that may be illusory and just where the convection is heaviest.

This thing is really CRANKING along. It has to slow down some if its going to have time to get more vertically organized, but by being relatively shallow it also misses the ULL's "spike" effect - so its a mixed bag. I also don't see much rotation - that's a good thing for the time being....

Tomorrow should tell the tale. If its going to get TUTTed, that should be when it happens. I'd put the odds at 50/50 on it being able to stay far enough east of the influence, and for the inhibiting factors to clear west of it - which would allow it to deepen and develop rotation. Its over warm water now and absent active disruption we'd have a good storm going already.

The high that is over the TN/AL/GA border area looks to be moving slowly ESE, and this is not good news. If that comes off the coast and allows what could be "D" to ride up to its west, things could get quite interesting....... this looks to be what the clipper is seeing..... right now the pattern in front of this thing is quite complex, but that looks to be clearing off to a large degree over the next couple of days......

Will be watching it tomorrow... and hoping its a bust, as the last thing I want is this thing getting into the gulf with all the current inhibitors off the playing field in front of it and 85F+ water underneath it!


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: 91L [Re: danielw]
      #69953 - Thu Aug 10 2006 12:24 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
603 PM AST WED AUG 9 2006

...PER TPC/NHC...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT COULD NOT CLOSE OFF A SURFACE CIRCULATION THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AS IT MOVES STEADILY OFF TO THE WEST OR WEST NORTHWEST. ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productviewnation.php?pil=SJUAFDSJU&version=1&max=25
*****************
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A * SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR THE... CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

* UNTIL 130 AM AST (0530Z~danielw)

* AT 1122 PM AST (0322Z) ...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS.
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND SQUALLS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH WINDS OF AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY ROUGH AND CHOPPY SEAS.

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS...HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING... AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL THIS STORM PASSES.
LAT...LON 1798 6564 1708 6494 1704 6753 1786 6736
(this isn't exactly on topic. Posted to indicate the current surface conditions~danielw) 0424Z


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danielwAdministrator
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GOM ULL [Re: danielw]
      #69954 - Thu Aug 10 2006 12:36 AM

Quote:
..."If you look at the WV loop at http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html there's an obvious ULL in the gulf roughly south of the AL/MS line by a couple hundred miles, moving to the NNW and losing some of its definition. If that thing was to drill down it could be trouble - what's keeping it from doing so is the STRONG high to the north of it."

That ULL is stirring up plenty of trouble around MS/LA.
Gulfport reported the Highest 1 day rainfall since Hurricane Katrina. Over 3 inches. Some remote areas of the MS Gulf Coast received 4-5inches.

Terra, one of the Flhurricane members in Mandeville,LA received 3.98inches. With 3.18inches of rainfall in 1 hour!

A week of sunshine is needed to dry up the grround before Any Tropical System approaches the Northern Gulf Coast. I believe that areas of Southern and Northwestern Florida are in the same boat. No pun intended!


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cieldumort
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Re: 91L [Re: danielw]
      #69955 - Thu Aug 10 2006 01:10 AM

At this hour nearly all of the deep convection has raced along far ahead of whatever is left of a mlc - best I can tell, 91L is now a nice Inverted V easterly wave - with a lot of forward momentum - I see close to zero chance for development over the next 12 hours if this trend continues. It looks like an arrow shooting across the Caribbean tonight, leaving mere feathers of "convection" in it's wake.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-ir2.html


At any rate, whatever is left of it might have a deeper fetch of tropical moisture to draw from, as well as even warmer SSTs, once whatever is left gets in to the central and western Carib.


I'll amend that observation to say that the MLC is actually still visible near St. Lucia - and is still attempting to re-fire convection tonight ... so, that is where I would consider 91L to "be." However, 91L's synoptic environment is one of being a part of a larger entity - just an open wave - However, I suppose that I tend to see this very similarly to the way Dem does - that the arrow racing ahead is clearing out much of that dry air! So, net-net, I suppose this could ultimately be a positive for the MLC to fight off future attacks and close something off downstairs.

Any way you cut it, we are still chit-chatting over a system of very limited capacity right now. Quite possibly it was a depression a few days ago, but since then it has been a ghost of it's former self most of the time.

Edited by cieldumort (Thu Aug 10 2006 02:00 AM)


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HanKFranK
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status quo [Re: danielw]
      #69956 - Thu Aug 10 2006 01:23 AM

91L hasn't made any inroads to development since around noon today. a mid-level vorticity center developed in the convective burst, while a weak anticyclone began to build aloft, around which time the speeding system reoriented to something more like a squall line, with turning of the wave still present, but nearly all of the convection out on the leading edge. not the sort of profile you'd look for with a healthy system. i don't see a whole lot to slow 91L down. don't think it can develop for that reason. the trades are doing a great job keeping the deep tropics on standby.
further east the wave trailing 91L has a convergence line strung along its western ITCZ frontage. it may help focus a vorticity center and convective region, or may just be one of those features passing waves do generate without consequence...
probably the latter.
surface low in the northeast atlantic (sw of the azores) still not doing anything. didn't have the kind of focal mechanism that a single deep cutoff vortex with a good cold pool aloft could create... all it has managed so far has been a surface trough with a weak low.
scott has an interesting idea with a close-in feature getting splitting off of a trough and getting trapped under the continental ridge. thus far none have been deep enough to do more than drop in and push convection offshore.... just that mcc last weekend really crosses my memory. essentially a zonal type pattern with little amplification is driving the train... the onset of early fall type amplifications... and whatever meridional wave action in the tropics attends it (to create those logjam situations where the trade blitzkrieg is jumbled and energy amasses)... that stuff ought to be needed to break the generally hostile pattern in the tropics. maybe some sneaky/longshot type tropical activity before then.. but between the big blow that breaks the heat over the middle of the continent, and the arrival of whatever westerly lower-tropospheric MJO anomalies can be had.. right around then things should really be cranking.
late august, sometime. probably.
HF 0523z10august


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