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The well-defined Tropical Low (98L) continues producing heavy training rain with isolated tornadoes also possible today in S TX
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 335 (Nicholas) , Major: 351 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1405 (Michael) Major: 1405 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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cieldumort
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Re: Nothing Immediate [Re: Clark]
      #69993 - Fri Aug 11 2006 06:36 PM

I wasn't attempting to suggest that it is nothing more than a curiosity for having ::drum-roll:: held in there, for so long - seeming to die - rebirth - die - rebirth - all the action in the Atlantic narrowed down to one persistent, but persistently innocuous, wave, that refuses to give up the ghost time and time again

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wereallgonnadie
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Re: Nothing Immediate *DELETED* [Re: cieldumort]
      #69995 - Fri Aug 11 2006 08:36 PM

Post deleted by Ed Dunham

Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Aug 11 2006 10:52 PM)


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Storm Cooper
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Re: Nothing Immediate [Re: wereallgonnadie]
      #69996 - Fri Aug 11 2006 08:42 PM

To be really honest this post should be moved but you do make a vague point and things are slow so I'll let another power move this... but the song I think is "Wake me up when September ends"...

September is on the way and things may change rather rapidly so enjoy the slow time.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1

Edited by Storm Cooper (Fri Aug 11 2006 08:55 PM)


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sara33
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Re: Nothing Immediate [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #69997 - Fri Aug 11 2006 10:01 PM

Is 91L non existant as far as the NHC goes? NRL does not have it listed anymore nor does NHC (just on floater 2)? Just curious.
WOW, could we be so lucky to get through August with no storms( sorry, knock on wood!) ? I sure hope so!! Last year and as I recall, the year before, there were a ton of waves blowing off of Africa at this time. It seems so quiet..Yeah!!

probably not, considering we've already had chris in august. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Sat Aug 12 2006 12:19 AM)


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Lee-Delray
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Re: Nothing Immediate [Re: MikeC]
      #69998 - Fri Aug 11 2006 10:15 PM

It was great reading the 5:30PM today, but the "meat" of the season is coming. I remember everyone breathing a sigh of relief last October, then Wilma came.

It only takes a storm; any storm to make it a bad season. Please, please stay ready.


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BillD
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Re: Nothing Immediate [Re: sara33]
      #69999 - Fri Aug 11 2006 10:24 PM

91L is no more, read Clark's post just a few above. No circulation at all at any level.

I think all of us are relieved that this season has not produced what we saw the last couple of years. This is not to say that later on is going to be quiet. But so far all the waves that have come off Affrica have not been able to develop. They continue to come, it isn't that they are not there, it is that the envrionment is not there for them develop into anything.

Bill


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cieldumort
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Re: Nothing Immediate [Re: BillD]
      #70001 - Sat Aug 12 2006 12:00 AM

Actually, that would be incorrect.

Here, the 8PM TWD gives a stong hint that NHC is still monitoring this wave closely.

"A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 72W S OF 21N
MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE LOOKS A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE TODAY
THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 70W-73W. THE STRUCTURE OF THIS WAVE HAS
ALSO IMPROVED SLIGHTLY WITH SOME LOW-MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING
EVIDENT NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS DO NOT APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS AN UPPER LOW IS LOCATED 300
NM TO THE NE OF THE WAVE AND WILL BE MOVING WWARD IN TANDEM."

Here are the key phrases in there:
THIS WAVE LOOKS A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE TODAY
THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION

THE STRUCTURE OF THIS WAVE HAS ALSO IMPROVED SLIGHTLY

SOME LOW-MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING
EVIDENT NEAR THE WAVE AXIS.

UPPER LEVEL WINDS DO NOT APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT

--------------------
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HanKFranK
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stuff that probably doesn't matter... [Re: cieldumort]
      #70002 - Sat Aug 12 2006 12:28 AM

noticed that one of the pulses on the leading edge of that trough in the western atlantic, up north/northeast of bermuda... got a nice little convective flare on it. SSTs in the subtropics are quite warm (compared to avg/below average in the lower latitudes).. with all the troughing off the east coast and energy being pushed offshore, could mean a little bit of activity. pretty much all modeling shows areas of low pressure out there with no real development, and little bits getting left behind as shortwaves clip by. deeper down in the tropics, there's a weak low/trough with some anticyclonic rotation aloft on the periphery of the ITCZ maybe 700-800 miles east of barbados. very weak, something of a longshot, but a bit of a convective flare tonight. with the big trough off the east coast, it the gate is closed for any development to come west anyway.
the wave in the caribbean, erstwhile 91L, still has a decent signature and some upper ridging ahead... trades aren't quite as fast as earlier, but it will probably do little and run out of real estate in a couple of days.
waiting around for something to break the pattern of the subtropical ridge being around 24N, the weakness in the western atlantic and rex block in the eastern atlantic. not to mention the associated fast trades and active TUTT. it's persisting later into the summer this year.. need some amplification and surges of fall to crack this nut open and get the tropics active again.
i reckon that whenever fall starts pushing into the midwest and northeast, the ridging shifts offshore and to the west coast, and the MJO trade wind logjam gets situated around central america/the caribbean... we'll be back in business.
two/three weeks.
HF 0428z12august


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cieldumort
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Re: stuff that probably doesn't matter... [Re: HanKFranK]
      #70003 - Sat Aug 12 2006 02:57 AM

Watching this stuff and attempting to give it any kind of credibility for future development has certainly been a challenge.

I've noticed that the next wave up (the one right behind 91L) does have an associated well-defined low level cyclone with it - however, very dry, and as such, extremely shallow and weak.

I don't know about that stuff over the Gulf Stream. The front is not exactly stalled, and while Scat really clearly shows off the low level circs, they are still entirely too much a part of the front to impress me much, just yet.

After all of these recent years, it would be incredible to see us get our first hurricane of the season sometime in September.

--------------------
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Ed in Va
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Re: stuff that probably doesn't matter... [Re: cieldumort]
      #70004 - Sat Aug 12 2006 01:05 PM

Just amazing...might as well be looking at a mid-winter sat view of the Atlantic.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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HurryCaneForm
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Re: stuff that probably doesn't matter... [Re: cieldumort]
      #70008 - Sat Aug 12 2006 04:24 PM

You could be right cieldumort, we might as well have all the action in September. I've heard that when the Pacific has storms more frequently, the Atlantic tends to be more quiet which is what I'm seeing this season. The Pacific already has 7 named storm(One which reached Cat.4 Status) and in The Atlantic only 3 & all of em only reach TS.
Anyway, we should not let our guard down no matter what.


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danielwAdministrator
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NCEP Discussion roundup-early [Re: HurryCaneForm]
      #70014 - Sat Aug 12 2006 09:53 PM

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1000 AM EDT SAT AUG 12 2006 (edited~danielw)

VALID 12Z WED AUG 16 2006 - 12Z SAT AUG 19 2006

...ANOTHER AREA OF INTEREST WAS OFF THE SE COAST OF THE CONUS WHERE THE 00Z/12 GFS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ITS 06Z COUNTERPART...DEVELOP A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROF FOR MID-AUGUST.

WE THINK THAT THE ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN MODELS MAY BE MORE REALISTIC WITH THE UPPER PATTERN OFF THE SE COAST NEXT THU-SAT.
THE 00Z AND 06Z/12 RUNS OF THE GFS...AND ESPECIALLY THE 06Z/12 DGEX...IMPLY TROPICAL ACTIVITY OFF THE E COAST DAYS 6-7 THAT WE ARE NOT HONORING AT THIS TIME.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/preepd/preepd.html
***********************************************

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
240 PM EDT SAT AUG 12 2006 (edited~danielw)

VALID 12Z TUE AUG 15 2006 - 12Z SAT AUG 19 2006

...EAST OF THE MS RIVER...

WEAK SURFACE LOW FORMING WELL E OF FL NEXT FEW DAYS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY WWD DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE.
LOW CONFIDENCE. OTHERWISE FOLLOW TPC OUTLOOKS AND OUTLOOKS ON THIS SYS.Bold Emphasis added~danielw
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html
*******************************************************

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
601 PM EDT SAT AUG 12 2006

FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 13/0000 UTC THRU AUG 16/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR (edited~danielw)

...DAY 3...
SOUTHEAST...
ANOMALOUS PWS(preciptable water) CONTINUE OVER MOST OF REGION THIS PERIOD WITH 15/16 GEFS MEMBERS SUPPORTING AT LEAST .5" AMNTS THIS PERIOD OVER SRN FLORIDA. IN ADDITION...OP 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED HEAVIER WITH QPF(Quantative Precipitation Forecast) THIS PERIOD COMPARED TO THE 0ZZ RUN. WILL USE GFS MAINLY THIS PERIOD WITH IDEA THAT SOME LL(Low Level) CIRCULATION MAY DEVELOP NEAR SE COAST BY END OF PERIOD.
LIGHT AMBIENT WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR SEABREEZE
COLLISIONS ONCE AGAIN.
(edits by danielw)
QPF- areas expected to receive 1/4 inch(>0.25"/ >6.35mm) or more precipitation during a 24-hour period.


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Randrew
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NWS [Re: danielw]
      #70016 - Sun Aug 13 2006 12:27 AM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC


LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE TUE. THE
FRONT STALLS OVER THE REGION FOR A COUPLE DAYS ON THE GFS...BEFORE
ANOTHER CAD EVENT DRIVES THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. NCEP IS GOING
WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH THE FIRST FRONT. THE GFS ALSO
DEVELOPS A LOW OFF THE SE COAST THAT STRONGLY HINTS OF TROPICAL
ORIGINS. HOWEVER...NCEP IS ALSO DISCOUNTING THIS FEATURE AS OTHER
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH IT/S DEVELOPMENT.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC

MODELS HAVE NOW BACKED DOWN FROM THEIR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENTS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. CENTER OF SFC HIGH TO MIGRATE OFF THE
CAROLINAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALLOWING FOR VEERING IN THE SFC WIND
FIELDS. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS FROM THE HIGH IS PROGGED TO STAY EITHER
ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE ILM WATERS AS THE UPPER LONGWAVE TROF
FILLS IN SOMEWHAT.

What I am seeing is a model data input regarding the upper low still north of Hispaniola that is expanding. This feature could or could not make the trip close enough to South Florida to influence a potential low formation off the south east US coast. If it does then a more westerly track for the potential low would be a possibility. My personal thinking is that the upper low will not have an impact should there even be anything to impact and regardless of climactics I suspect any formation would be directed eastward in some fashion.


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cieldumort
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Re: NWS [Re: Randrew]
      #70018 - Sun Aug 13 2006 03:16 AM

Well, the two long-shots of the weekend are looking slightly less improbable this late Saturday night.

Feature 1) Surface low pressure just off the southeast coast - although, still largely attached to a stalling-out front. Deeper convection has been underway for a few hours, along with what appears to be a possible attempt at coalescing about a general center.
Floater 1 over the Gulf



Feature 2) Tropical Wave approaching the Lesser Antilles - has had a very weak and dry surface low associated with it for several days. Somewhat deep convection has now been underway for many hours, and it appears tonight that it is possibly attempting to mesh somewhat with that formerly very dry low level swirl of a low pressure center.
Floater 2 over the Caribbean

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Randrew
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Cent Atl. [Re: cieldumort]
      #70019 - Sun Aug 13 2006 04:47 AM

The wave moving into the Windwards has shown a respectable flare on the sats. Fortunately all that is mostly caused by a convergence with the ITCZ. I see no future development with this one at that low an elevation. But there is always 12-24 hrs from now that could show a completely different picture.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Cent Atl. [Re: Randrew]
      #70020 - Sun Aug 13 2006 09:50 AM

looking at the same wave... while it looks nice... it doesn't look like it will hold together... nice VIS sat of this wave coming across the islands. It appears that it is getting sheared apart.

--------------------
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2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Aug 13 2006 09:51 AM)


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Ron Basso
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Re: NWS [Re: Randrew]
      #70021 - Sun Aug 13 2006 10:10 AM

Interesting forecast the next 72-96 hrs. The UKMET, NOGAPS, CMC, & NAM models all develop low pressure east of FL and move it west across the peninsula into the GOM by Wednesday next week. The GFS has a stronger low NE of the state and sorta splits this energy with one lobe heading NE and another moving SW across FL. None of the models (except NAM) develop the low into a strong feature but given the time of year and the warm Atlantic and GOM waters - this definitely bears watching - especially with so much model support. The low would form from the remnants of an old front off the east coast of FL.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cg...;hour=Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc2...;hour=Animation

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/nam/06/index_slp_s_loop.shtml

--------------------
RJB


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sunnygm
Unregistered




Re: Cent Atl. [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #70022 - Sun Aug 13 2006 10:42 AM



From 0 to 2 in nothing...NRL has 92L and 93L up


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recmod
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Re: Cent Atl. [Re: sunnygm]
      #70023 - Sun Aug 13 2006 10:56 AM

Quote:



From 0 to 2 in nothing...NRL has 92L and 93L up




Why, if we have two invests out there, does the NHC's Tropical Weather Outlook read as follows:

Quote:

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.




This seems a bit contradictory. Shouldn't features that warrant being labeled an invest at least be discussed in the NHC's tropical outlook?

--Lou


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GuppieGrouper
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Re: Cent Atl. [Re: recmod]
      #70024 - Sun Aug 13 2006 11:03 AM

The Navy is interested because the storms will affect naval operations, boats etc. The NHC will get interested if it starts to effect land.Can't remember which form of those two words are correct so I used one each(e, a)ffect.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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