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Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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TampaRand
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 76
Loc: Tampa FL
Re: future [Re: HanKFranK]
      #70793 - Fri Aug 25 2006 05:47 PM

I am in pretty close agreement with that, the one kicker being that if the ridge does build back in and it heads towards Texas, it will have to cross the cooler Gulf Loop Current and then starts replacing eyewall. Seems like cooler water always tends to make them do that due to cross turbulence at the eyewall. I wonder why that is.Maybe just coincidental, but it seems as though they do a lot of those cycles when substantially cooler temp water is passed over. Moist convection? Any ideas? Not wanting to hijack the thread, but if anybody has a good answer to that please PM me.

--------------------
Amateur Weather Prognosticator and Cane Junkie.
www.hurricanewx.net


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anon tiger
Unregistered




Re: future [Re: HanKFranK]
      #70794 - Fri Aug 25 2006 05:53 PM

Is it me or has the thunderstorms caught back up to the LLC?

Looking at the visibles and the AVN it appears the high clouds are now over the LLC>

Anyone else seeing the same thing?


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Tak
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 41
Loc: Altamonte Springs, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean [Re: StPeteBill]
      #70795 - Fri Aug 25 2006 05:53 PM

Go to this site for specific lanfall probabilities

http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane/welcome.html


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Lysis
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: future [Re: HanKFranK]
      #70796 - Fri Aug 25 2006 06:00 PM

Camille, Gilbert, Allen…
While not necessarily analogous to Ernesto, there are lots of doomsday scenarios ripe for blossoming considering the timetable we are in –this could be an interesting week.

Nice analysis Hank.

As long as you stay past 80W…
perhaps Frederic (79’), Eloise (75') for the middle analogue?
There are a lot of interesting Gulf recurvatures in the otherwise comparatively inactive late 60’s/70’s.

Edited by Lysis (Fri Aug 25 2006 06:17 PM)


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: future [Re: Lysis]
      #70797 - Fri Aug 25 2006 06:15 PM

Another track that sort of looks similar is Abby in 1960. It seems to be ever so close to the same area as Ernesto is now and at about the same intensity give or take a few knots.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: future [Re: Lysis]
      #70798 - Fri Aug 25 2006 06:15 PM

The center looks to be tracking north of the NHC forecast points, and convection is getting closer. ems the shear, at least temporarily, is lessening. The track of Ernesto so far is very similiar to Dennis last year.

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4426
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: future [Re: pcola]
      #70799 - Fri Aug 25 2006 06:24 PM

Herei is a map that contains Dennis, Ernesto, and Abby, mentioned above as well as Gilbert and Ivan.

Link to Map

I'm concerned a bit about the further north movement for now, but want to see how it persists through the night. I'll try to get something new around 11AM tomorrow on it.


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: future [Re: MikeC]
      #70800 - Fri Aug 25 2006 06:27 PM

It's hard to tell whether it's jogging north or not. The convection appears to have reformed north of where it had been within the last 2-3 hours, which may visually disturb our nice strait track without actually shifting the vortex center north. Check out the IR loop on GHCC: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html

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weather_wise911
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 82
Re: future [Re: Random Chaos]
      #70801 - Fri Aug 25 2006 06:32 PM

I have plotted the track on the visible loop, and the LLC is indeed on a WNW track--though, yes--it does appear to have a more northerly component to it.


WW-911


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Ernesto [Re: weather_wise911]
      #70802 - Fri Aug 25 2006 06:45 PM

i cannot believe Ernesto could be a hurricane in the gulf a year after Katrina was. this is a very scary thought.

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Ernesto [Re: Ryan]
      #70803 - Fri Aug 25 2006 07:19 PM

Scary, indeed. I've said for two days, I've got a bad feeling about Ernesto. I've seen very little today, beyond the shear which now appears to be subsiding, to change my bad feeling.

Reading HF's scenarios, I can readily see two of the three coming to pass. Maybe it's just that I've got it in for myself, but I tend to favor the FL Panhandle to Louisiana scenario rather than the "Go West" one. Just can't see a powerful hurricane NOT moving poleward, and I think Ernesto could potentially be a powerful hurricane in the Gulf (I'm thinking at least a strong Cat 2).

Feels alot like deja vu.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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SirCane
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
Re: Ernesto [Re: Hugh]
      #70804 - Fri Aug 25 2006 07:24 PM

A CAT 2 in the Gulf would be a whole lot better of a situation than the CAT 5 Katrina and that deadly CAT 5 surge. Not a good one, but still not as bad. I couldn't believe last year getting hit by Dennis ONLY 9 months after getting hit by Ivan. The tropics are so unpredictable.

I expect that the forecast track is going to change. I just hope for the best. This area from West Louisiana to around Destin, Florida has had ENOUGH after the last 2 seasons.

--------------------
Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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hawg92
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 14
Loc: Flagstaff, AZ
Re: Ernesto [Re: SirCane]
      #70805 - Fri Aug 25 2006 07:30 PM

Does it look like an eye is forming in the latest infrared loop? This thing could intensify faster than they expect.

--------------------
We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence then, is not an act but a habit - Aristotle


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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 123
Re: Ernesto [Re: hawg92]
      #70806 - Fri Aug 25 2006 07:32 PM

Now can a mod/met and anyone tell me is Ernesto moving nw or is it a jog or an illusion? I see what looks like a NW movement but am not sure if it is a jog, or really moving, or an illusion because of convection.

--------------------
W.D. Duncan

Edited by nc_tropical_wx79 (Fri Aug 25 2006 07:33 PM)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Ernesto [Re: SirCane]
      #70807 - Fri Aug 25 2006 07:32 PM

I completely agree, we've had way too many. Hopefully Ernesto won't get any stronger than a Cat 2. One thing that I find at least a bit "comforting" if such can be said about the potential for a hurricane hitting, is that the last several hurricanes that have impacted here have been weakening as they came onshore. Dennis was powerful, but very small (we didn't even get much rain here in Valp.). Ivan was a different story of course.

You're right, the forecast will change. Which way it changes will be very interesting.

Quote:

Does it look like an eye is forming in the latest infrared loop? This thing could intensify faster than they expect.




No, that's not an eye. That's a black area which represents a colder cloud top than the red around it. I do think that the LLC has moved to under the CDO, though. We'll see what the intermediate advisory says and what the next recon finds, but I suspect IF the shear lets up significantly, Ernesto will become the season's first hurricane by Sunday morning.


--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Fri Aug 25 2006 07:35 PM)


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 426
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
Re: Ernesto [Re: hawg92]
      #70808 - Fri Aug 25 2006 07:32 PM

Ernesto is entering hostile territory with that upper low to its west- but I understand the low is also moving west -and an equally hostile environment to its north. If it veers NW it may stand a chance- but will know enough tomorrow.

Edited by rmbjoe1954 (Fri Aug 25 2006 07:35 PM)


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Ernesto [Re: hawg92]
      #70809 - Fri Aug 25 2006 07:35 PM

There is no eye. There is a center of circulation which shows up on colorized satellite pictures some times. However, sometimes there are other spots that are intense temperatures that show up darker as well and they are not centers. Sometimes a category one does not have an obvious eye on satellites especially infrared colorized shots. Visable is the best way for the non-experts to spot the eye and it is still guess work without the equipment that recon and NHC has. But guessing is fun.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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weather_wise911
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 82
Re: Ernesto [Re: nc_tropical_wx79]
      #70810 - Fri Aug 25 2006 07:38 PM

I posted earlier that I plotted the COC, and did notice a SLIGHT jog to the NW, but it only lasted about 30 minutes, or so.

The forward motion is WNW---NOT NW---


WW-911


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wereallgonnadie
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 22
Loc: nw fla
Re: Ernesto [Re: Hugh]
      #70811 - Fri Aug 25 2006 07:39 PM

Being in Northern Walton County certainly don't want that to happen and don't expect it will. Hopefully it'll be a little Dennis wherever it hits.

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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Ernesto [Re: nc_tropical_wx79]
      #70812 - Fri Aug 25 2006 07:46 PM

Ernesto is jogging around, going from west to northwest, with an average motion of about west-northwest. It's racing along though; the 5p advisory speed of 16mph is probably 5-10mph too slow for what has been seen over the past 8 hours or so. The convection continues to play catch up with the LLC and is now currently just over the LLC, but it's going to race right into that shear zone and kill itself if it doesn't slow down...and quick.

The upper low to the west is moving west-southwest, but nowhere near as fast as is Ernesto. Let's see what happens overnight with the storm, as I have a feeling the next 18-24hr are going to tell us a lot as to whether or not we'll have a significant feature to track into the Gulf into next week. Best bet is that overnight, the system slows and reorganizes near or under the deepest convection, then becomes sheared again into tomorrow before conditions progressively become more favorable in 2-3 days or so. Models are starting to pinpoint the northern Gulf coast for an eventual target, but that's just idle speculation right now. Let's see whether or not Ernesto slows down and stays away from the shear zone overnight.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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