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Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Ernesto [Re: wereallgonnadie]
      #70813 - Fri Aug 25 2006 07:54 PM

Folks...Folks...I'm not a moderator here, but living in Charlotte County I feel the same way as do many people along the Gulf Coast...So it's a bit of a given that I can sympathize with, but it's too early to call a gulf coast landfall and we need to be mindfull of Gulf Coast residents, with a lesser understanding of the weather, but a desire to know where this is going may be looking at this site for info...Comments maybe misconstrued as an indication of where this is going, and while nobody knows, this could cause uneccessary concern for some. Please be mindful of that. Maybe it's best to stick to the here and now through 5 days in our discussions.

In the mean. Yes...right up to sunset, it did appear that Ernesto was slightly north of the forecast track. However, I would not say it was a northwestmotion either. Jaimaica is a long island, but very narrow from north to south. These subtle changes could be the difference between something that moves right over the isladn to something that threads the needle between Jaimaica and Hospanola.

Upper air...I just can't get a firm feel for the future by looking at the water vapor. The upper low to the west is indeed dropping southwest, and the one to the north is moving west. The two are interconnected by the shear zone to the SW of each. There is some indication of a split going on which would give an favorable atmosphere, but then again...a bit of a trough (looking feature) is dropping southward from the upper low to the north. On one hand, this could help to create the split and develop an outflow channel to the north. On the other hand...it could drop to far south and the shear axis could survive between the two upper lows. At this time, it's beyond my understanding of meteorology and to tough for me to call.

Edited by dem05 (Fri Aug 25 2006 07:55 PM)


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SirCane
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
Re: Ernesto [Re: Clark]
      #70814 - Fri Aug 25 2006 07:58 PM

I was watching the news and they said the shear to Ernesto's west is supposed to relax in the next 24 hours. I didn't like the sound of that. Once it gets past that area of shear, there is going to be prime conditions in the West Caribbean for Ernesto to develop.

--------------------
Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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Tak
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 41
Loc: Altamonte Springs, FL
Re: Ernesto [Re: Clark]
      #70815 - Fri Aug 25 2006 08:00 PM

Looks like Ernesto is leaving an area of 10 kt shear and approaching an area of 40-50 kt wsw shear. Clark, if that is from the upper level low, question is how long that will be in place.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html


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CoalCracker
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 96
Loc: Cape Coral, FL
Re: Ernesto [Re: Clark]
      #70816 - Fri Aug 25 2006 08:01 PM

Interesting how the latest GFDL has moved left and close to NHC's track (check the SFWMD plots or the Skeeto tracking map once it's updated). Having tweaked the track at 5PM, my take is we'll see little if any track change until the next recon reports back early tomorrow. Not trying to imply anything except that it's still too early to tell what Ernesto will be and where he'll go. Way too many variables right now. Stay infomed and semper paratus.

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wereallgonnadie
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 22
Loc: nw fla
Re: Ernesto [Re: Clark]
      #70817 - Fri Aug 25 2006 08:05 PM

Anyone remember Earl?

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Genesis
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 125
Re: Ernesto [Re: Hugh]
      #70818 - Fri Aug 25 2006 08:14 PM

I've been staring at the upper level winds for a couple of days now, consulting my divining rod and looking at the weather this summer - which has been, well, somewhat odd around here (Panhandle) in an attempt to get a handle on this thing.

Here's my analysis thus far, as best I can see it...

1. The ULL is clearly pulling away to the west. And its boogieing too. 12 hour loop on the WV shows it from roughly the eastern tip of Cuba almost to the midsection and slightly south of where it was 12 hours back. At the same time, Ernesto has moved a SMALLER distance westward over the same 12 hours. In other words, it does NOT appear that Ernesto is going to get TUTTed like our "C" storm did.

2. We've had this very odd (for this time of year) pattern over the panhandle the last few days with a stationary front sitting over the area, firing off nasty convection pretty much nonstop, both over land and water. The WV loop shows what appears to be some buckling setting up over that boundary, but whether it really happens or gets repelled - as it has for the last few days - is going to be pivotal. It is that dry/cold : moist warm interface that has been kicking off all the convection around here, and that sort of stability over a multi-day period is pretty extraordinary in these parts. I don't recall anything quite like it in August going back several years.... There's a surface low and trough pushing eastward that looks to be disrupting this frontal boundary - finally!

3. The gulf itself is ripe and low-shear once that ULL clears out, and it sure looks like its going to. There's really nothing out there in the gulf itself to hinder this thing from going "boom" once it reaches the gulf waters. That's not good.

The current boundary that is after the stationary front will go through before Ernesto can get on the field in the Gulf, so that one is not a factor. Driving that is an impulse from the Jet, which, if it stays far enough south, could present the troughiness to break up the ridging and result in the poleward turn.

I don't see the Florida West Coast / up the East Coast scenario here. I see the danger zone as more from roughly Appalachicola westward to Corpus, which is a hell of a lot of real estate.... .then again we're talking about something nearly a week out - and this assumes that we don''t get a breakdown in steering flows. If the pattern we have had the last few days in the gulf were to re-establish itself, this thing may come up in the center of the gulf and basically stall, waiting for a break in the ridging before it makes its move... that could put the entire gulf in play quite easily.


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sara33
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: St. Pete,
Re: Ernesto [Re: wereallgonnadie]
      #70819 - Fri Aug 25 2006 08:15 PM

Is the GFDL usually pretty conservative with the storm intensity? Just curious because I have only been storm watching for about a year?? Also, Doesn't NHC favor GFDL over other models?
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/ ( early cycle intensity guide frame 1)

Thanks,
Christine


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Daniel294
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 5
Re: Ernesto [Re: sara33]
      #70820 - Fri Aug 25 2006 08:21 PM

Actually it's the exact opposite. GFDL tends to be rather agressive with intensity when it develops a storm.

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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
Re: Ernesto [Re: dem05]
      #70821 - Fri Aug 25 2006 08:26 PM

Exactly... I don't think anyone can predict with any degree of accuracy what's going to happen with Ernesto after (if) he gets into the Gulf.

Heck he hasn't even made it past Jamaica - and Jamaica causes all kinds of wobbles in hurricane paths.....


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hurricaneguy
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 80
Loc: Greeneville, TN
Re: Ernesto [Re: ShanaTX]
      #70822 - Fri Aug 25 2006 08:32 PM

Wow talk about a huge blow up of conection around the center. This storm is taking advantage of the low shear enviroment. Now the question is, how will the stronger shear in the western Caribbean affect Ernesto?

--------------------


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Ernesto [Re: hurricaneguy]
      #70823 - Fri Aug 25 2006 08:49 PM

Yeah, very strong convective core firing up now. If it can sustain it, we could see rapid intensification. I remember our W did something similar last year.

You can really see it here: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-jsl.html

Edited by Random Chaos (Fri Aug 25 2006 08:53 PM)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Ernesto [Re: Random Chaos]
      #70824 - Fri Aug 25 2006 08:57 PM

Quote:

Yeah, very strong convective core firing up now. If it can sustain it, we could see rapid intensification. I remember our W did something similar last year.





Something similar? I hope this isn't something similar. Wilma went from a tropical storm, to a major hurricane the next day, to He** on Earth the next morning as a plane found the most intense hurricane on record in the Gulf.

This isn't going to do that, not yet anyway (hopefully, not ever!)

Edit: I just loaded the JSL loop (had been looking at the AVN loop). Very impressive indeed!
Edit 2: Now the AVN image has that look too...and I can see how someone might think it looks like Wilma did. This isn't Wilma, but I do believe the winds will be up at 10pm, and that this will be a 'cane sooner, rather than later.


--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Fri Aug 25 2006 09:45 PM)


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hawg92
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 14
Loc: Flagstaff, AZ
Re: Ernesto [Re: Hugh]
      #70825 - Fri Aug 25 2006 08:59 PM

Quote:

No, that's not an eye. That's a black area which represents a colder cloud top than the red around it. I do think that the LLC has moved to under the CDO, though. We'll see what the intermediate advisory says and what the next recon finds, but I suspect IF the shear lets up significantly, Ernesto will become the season's first hurricane by Sunday morning.




That may not be a fully developed eye, but it is still intact and I believe it is going to become the eye. Ernesto appears to have intensified quite a bit in the last couple of hours.

Jack

--------------------
We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence then, is not an act but a habit - Aristotle


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Ernesto [Re: hawg92]
      #70826 - Fri Aug 25 2006 09:02 PM

We're two hours off the next advisory...we'll see what is says when it comes. That said, the 18Z run of GFDL has a stready strengthening of the storm through it's life to Cat 3 surface (Cat 4 elevated) before landfall on the gulf coast (too far out to even guess where). This compares to the 12Z GFDL run that had only weak strengtening over the next 5 days.

Edit: Hugh, interestingly the coldest cloud tops correspond to the estimated center on SSD's site (click the track estimate on the JSL image loop). That thing's sitting over the vortex core. If it was out swirling around, it wouldn't be quite so menacing. I'm waiting for NRL to get an 85GHz pass on the system - then we'll see what it's internal structure is.

Edit 2: NRL just updated their site to list Ernesto instead of Storm 5. Now they have to regenerate their overpass estimates before I have an idea when the 85GHz will appear

--RC

Edited by Random Chaos (Fri Aug 25 2006 09:07 PM)


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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Ernesto [Re: Hugh]
      #70827 - Fri Aug 25 2006 09:02 PM

That convection is firing...but it's not over the center...it is displaced to the SE of the center. You can see the center is on the NW edge of the deep convection via the shortwave loop. Here ya go: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html
With that said, it's pretty darn good convection and keeping the life in Ernesto, but I doubt we are about to see any rapid intensification tonight. However, strengthening could happen if the activity gets itself poinsed directly over the center.

Edited by dem05 (Fri Aug 25 2006 09:03 PM)


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Ernesto [Re: hawg92]
      #70828 - Fri Aug 25 2006 09:03 PM

Apperances can be deceiving. Based off of the warmer cloud top motions in IR imagery, Ernesto's center is still on the far NW edge of the convection, though does appear to be continuing to slide a bit into the convection. With the amount of shear still in the environment -- though starting to lessen -- I don't think rapid intensification is a threat for the immediate future. Intensification in general? Possible.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: future [Re: HanKFranK]
      #70830 - Fri Aug 25 2006 09:08 PM

All three tracks are possibilities at this point.
I think the third one is the one our local meteorologist is most concerned might happen. I remember reading about the
1865 hurricane. Not good.


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: future [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #70833 - Fri Aug 25 2006 09:13 PM

Quote:

All three tracks are possibilities at this point.
I think the third one is the one our local meteorologist is most concerned might happen. I remember reading about the
1865 hurricane. Not good.




For those wondering, here's the 1865 hurricane track:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1865/index.html
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at1865.asp


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grimreaper
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1
Re: future [Re: Random Chaos]
      #70835 - Fri Aug 25 2006 09:44 PM

As far as comparisons of past storm paths, isn't Ernesto taking a very similar path to that of Ivan during the 2004 season?


If I remember correctly, Ivan was a Hurricane much earlier than this storm though.


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: future [Re: grimreaper]
      #70836 - Fri Aug 25 2006 09:47 PM

Quote:

As far as comparisons of past storm paths, isn't Ernesto taking a very similar path to that of Ivan during the 2004 season?
If I remember correctly, Ivan was a Hurricane much earlier than this storm though.




Yes, the tracks are very, very similar. Ivan was a Cat 5 near this location.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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