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97L dropped to no chance for development over the next 5 days. Rest of Atlantic Quiet at the moment.
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Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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sara33
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: St. Pete,
Re: future [Re: Hugh]
      #70837 - Fri Aug 25 2006 09:55 PM

Will there actually be recon info at the 11:00 update?

Thanks,
Christine

Nope...recon is not in there now...JK

Edited by wxman007 (Fri Aug 25 2006 09:58 PM)


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wereallgonnadie
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 22
Loc: nw fla
Re: future [Re: sara33]
      #70839 - Fri Aug 25 2006 10:05 PM

Hmmm our friend the GFDL is at it again predicting a Cat 5 in the gulf. Interesting that it is coming into line with the other models. I believe this is a hurricane model and not just a general forecast model(ala GFS)?

I is a tropical model but it has had its issues and still does.... I would not put too much into it...

Edited by Storm Cooper (Fri Aug 25 2006 10:15 PM)


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West FL Jess
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 50
Loc: Tampa Bay
Re: future [Re: wereallgonnadie]
      #70841 - Fri Aug 25 2006 10:14 PM

the NOGAPS has Ernesto going towards FL, how long will this prediction last?

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SirCane
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
Re: future [Re: wereallgonnadie]
      #70842 - Fri Aug 25 2006 10:17 PM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

Looking at this loop, it kinda looks like Ernesto is kinda shoving that shear ahead of it aside. Doesn't seem like it's going to affect Ernesto that much.

You all are right about the Gulf. I could see anywhere from about Houston to Apalachicola, FL as a final destination. I sure hope it can peak as a CAT 1 or 2 and not become a major.

--------------------
Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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TampaRand
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 76
Loc: Tampa FL
Re: future [Re: Hugh]
      #70843 - Fri Aug 25 2006 10:18 PM

I have a hard time with comparisions for past histories. To be nearly the same track, the exact weather patterns would have to be set up and that is random chaotic-ness at best. It would be a near mathematic anomaly to be similar. My observations have been that there is little to be learned from past storm tracks because of the randomness of patterns that influence these storms.We all need to step back a bit, see what the next 24 hours gives us. The shear does appear to be in retrograde and I do not think that 40-50mph shearing is going to persist, but I HAVE been mucho WRONG before, but I have also been much right, too, as in Rita last year calling the thing 6 days out within 15 minutes and 15 miles of landfall,but that was,in my estimation,a no-brainer. This system is still challenged and I believe that we will just have to see what the next 12-24hours brings.Let'snot get our panties too wadded up before we see what the next data returns are.

One reason I got involved with canes was because of the hype of the local weather guys on TV here in Tampa. If there is one remotely close then we must start calling FEMA immediately and studying evac routes and jamming highways. If nothing else, people like us are keeping these guys a little bit honest. We need to see what REAL data is being returned.

I worked a satellite truck during Wilma last year and keeping Sarasota News Network up and feeding hype to the networks last year and I set them up a new weather set repleat with the software, interface to Master Control, etc., etc, in fact, I did their whole system design and integration in a brand new digital facility. Don't be deceived, in TV weather, especially in FL., cane weather is the ultimate nut for the networks and local stations. So, let's be sensible here and see what we're really looking at in 24 hours and not out-hype ourselves with this. JMO, and it ain't necessarily right

--------------------
Amateur Weather Prognosticator and Cane Junkie.
www.hurricanewx.net


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SirCane
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
Re: future [Re: Hugh]
      #70844 - Fri Aug 25 2006 10:18 PM

It's also in a similar spot as Hurricane Dennis was.

--------------------
Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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bravzfan
Unregistered




Re: future [Re: SirCane]
      #70846 - Fri Aug 25 2006 10:25 PM

Any thoughts concerning Ernesto being shoved back to the east
with an eventual backdoor track through N. Fla/ S. Ga?


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TampaRand
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 76
Loc: Tampa FL
Re: future [Re: sara33]
      #70850 - Fri Aug 25 2006 10:31 PM

Quote:

Will there actually be recon info at the 11:00 update?

Thanks,
Christine

Nope...recon is not in there now...JK




Recon runs again at 1800Z tomorrow the 26th-1pm EDST for flight 1 and again at 7pm EDST. Flight 2 will be on the 27th at 0600 and 1200 UTC (Zulu) respectively.That's the P.O.D for. now

--------------------
Amateur Weather Prognosticator and Cane Junkie.
www.hurricanewx.net


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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: future [Re: wereallgonnadie]
      #70853 - Fri Aug 25 2006 10:36 PM

Just a quick backtrack to this gentleman's comments on the GFDL... The GFDL has gone intensity buck wild in general in the last run or two...It's too early to believe it. As a tie in, I must cross the line and temporarily move into another basin to make the point.... On the 12Z, the GFDL took Ioke (Central Pacific) to 879 mb and 210 MPH. This breaches the limits of any pressure reading seen on a model from anybody I've ever talked too. Ioke on the 18Z runs does not get a pressure that low, but once again...it shows a hurricane with a massive category 5 windfield. Granted, that storm is a cat 5 now, but even with an eyewall replacement, the storm can't do it for that long. Likewise, I notice the intensity referenced on the 18Z GFDL of Ernesto, but the pressure would have to be lower on this storm to get those kind of wind speeds. 940mb is not that low for a cat 5. Granted, Charley pulled it off as a strong cat 4 at 941 mb, but he was compact like a tornado and that created a very tight pressure gradient that enhanced the windfield. I currently would have to dismiss the intensity forecast of the 18Z GFDL for Ernesto at this point.

Edited by dem05 (Fri Aug 25 2006 10:40 PM)


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: future [Re: wereallgonnadie]
      #70856 - Fri Aug 25 2006 10:40 PM

Quote:

Hmmm our friend the GFDL is at it again predicting...




Experiencially, the models don't start solidifying track or intensity until a storm has been a medium Tropical Storm for at least 12-24 hours. So I wouldn't expect any "good" model runs to arrive until midday tomorrow (the 06Z run). However, GFDL is nothing to ignore. It's not perfect, and has been far from accurate at times, but it's shown itself to be very good other times.

However, the 18Z run isn't showing Cat 5. It's showing Cat 4 at 800mb, which generally downsamples to Cat 3 at the surface.

--RC


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Ernesto [Re: bravzfan]
      #70857 - Fri Aug 25 2006 10:44 PM

Based on Dvorak analysis loop through 0115Z. It appears that the shear may be decreasing. The Final ADT postion has been creeping closer and closer to the colder CDO clouds.
JAVA Dvorak loop
At 0115Z the Final position is just inside the western edge of the 'bright white' CDO.

The dark area, near the Center of the CDO, that was mentioned several posts back. Appears to be Convective Towers in the Center of Ernesto.
The Dvorak and JSL Enhancements indicate this area has colder temperatures than the surrounding cloud area. Which is normally associated with higher cloud tops.
An "Eye" area should/ would display a 'warmer region' of cloud top temperatures.
There might be a depressed area of cloud tops near the center. But based on the Current Dvorak intensity, there's very little probability of Ernesto forming an Eye anytime soon.


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TampaRand
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 76
Loc: Tampa FL
Re: future [Re: dem05]
      #70858 - Fri Aug 25 2006 10:45 PM

I like GFDL a lot, but I think they have had some intialization problems ( I think they all have because of the COC problems earlier) and sometimes that model does get carried away with intensity. Track is pretty awesome, but I think we are looking at two separate algorithms with the two. It went way under for a while with Wilma last year, but nailed the track, as they almost always do. NHC will eventually justify to that track, if the Geophysics guys get it right and they usually do for tracking, or at least reasonably close). I'm going to go play with the FSU super-ensemble for a while, see what it's doing with this.

Edited by TampaRand (Fri Aug 25 2006 10:48 PM)


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dhsfireman
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 12
Loc: WV
Re: future [Re: Random Chaos]
      #70859 - Fri Aug 25 2006 10:47 PM

Well if it means anything at all after the year we had last year FEMA is already sitting in stand-by response mode. FEMA is making a better attempt to be ready to go. And the mapping folks at FEMA HQ are looking at Ernest in the gulf west of N.O. possible Cat 2-3.

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: future [Re: Random Chaos]
      #70860 - Fri Aug 25 2006 10:50 PM

Quote:

[However, the 18Z run isn't showing Cat 5. It's showing Cat 4 at 800mb, which generally downsamples to Cat 3 at the surface.
--RC




The 18Z 25 Aug 2006, FSU GFDL model that I'm using is indicating a 942mb, 127kt (146mph), at 35meters (115ft above sea level) at 00Z on 31 August. (Tuesday evening)
18Z GFDL Run. Ernesto05L

The question of the hour. Is...Will the trough over N Texas, that's depicted in the above model, pull Ernesto toward Texas, or deflect it onshore into Louisiana.

Edited by danielw (Fri Aug 25 2006 10:53 PM)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
TS Warnings issued [Re: dhsfireman]
      #70861 - Fri Aug 25 2006 10:52 PM

at 11pm AST.. the tropical storm watch has been upgraded to
a Tropical Storm Warning along the southwestern peninsula of Haiti.
A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect from the Haiti-Dominican
Republic border westward to the southwestern tip of Haiti.

Winds up to 45 mph. Long range track looks similar to Rita to me (TX/LA border).

EDIT TO ADD RECON:
An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate Ernesto overnight.



--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Fri Aug 25 2006 10:55 PM)


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SirCane
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
Re: TS Warnings issued [Re: Hugh]
      #70862 - Fri Aug 25 2006 10:55 PM

That track is going to flip flop a lot I'm sure. You usually see that a lot with a developing system.

--------------------
Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: Ernesto [Re: danielw]
      #70863 - Fri Aug 25 2006 11:00 PM

im thinking Ernesto will some what follow GFDL's path taking it toward the TX/LA border, maybe a little more into LA as a category 3 or 4. I just hope it stays clear of New Orleans and coastal Mississippi. Well one thing is for sure, the tropics are heating up. Also, how coicidental that a year after Katrina there could be a major hurricane in the Gulf, again. I hope this isn't an annual occasion.

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: TS Warnings issued [Re: Hugh]
      #70864 - Fri Aug 25 2006 11:03 PM

I'm interested in the discussion to see what they say. In the mean time, some folks mentioned recon would not be out until the late morning hours...The public discussion reflects that recon is on it's way for some overnight passes. So I don't know if they've taken off or are getting ready too. Our Recon Guru on this site is DanielW so I hope he might not have gone to bed and can keep us posted (Sorry to put you on the hook DW ) Anyhow, that public advisory has mentioned the south coast of Hispanola more than Jaimaica, in reality, they are pretty darn close, but we may see something headed more toward Haiti over time. Ahh, who know's right?

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SirCane
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
Re: Ernesto [Re: Ryan]
      #70865 - Fri Aug 25 2006 11:04 PM

Check out NOGAPS. Puts Ernesto into the Big Bend of FL. That's crazy.

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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Ernesto [Re: SirCane]
      #70866 - Fri Aug 25 2006 11:07 PM

link to the latest NOGAPS cane? I think mine is old.

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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