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Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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SirCane
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
Re: Ernesto [Re: pcola]
      #70867 - Fri Aug 25 2006 11:09 PM

http://i.flhurricane.com/images/2006/storm5/plot25082006-2209.gif

Check out the light blue line.

--------------------
Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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TampaRand
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 76
Loc: Tampa FL
Re: Ernesto [Re: SirCane]
      #70868 - Fri Aug 25 2006 11:10 PM

Quote:

Check out NOGAPS. Puts Ernesto into the Big Bend of FL. That's crazy.




Not too crazy, I been looking at some massive recurvature for like all day. The receding ridge opens that door right up. But that being siad, I still trust the GFDL on tracking. They just don't handle intensity and shear real well,but tracking has always been a big plus.

Also seeing they are going to send a flight in tonight. Must be some intense emotions down there at NHC right now. All of a sudden there's a different level of interest.

--------------------
Amateur Weather Prognosticator and Cane Junkie.
www.hurricanewx.net

Edited by TampaRand (Fri Aug 25 2006 11:12 PM)


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Ernesto [Re: SirCane]
      #70869 - Fri Aug 25 2006 11:11 PM

Thanks. To all< I can't remember all the models being this far apart after 72 hours, all over the place..

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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Ernesto [Re: pcola]
      #70870 - Fri Aug 25 2006 11:15 PM

NOGAPS may be reading a weakness in the ridge or a shortwave moving through.
One of the 18Z models did have a weakness in the 500mb ridge. I wish I could remember which one it was.


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: Ernesto [Re: danielw]
      #70875 - Fri Aug 25 2006 11:43 PM

Nogaps is jumping like all of them...I already have seen the NOGAPS 0z run and it keeps it weak and into the central gulf towards Mobile....

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TampaRand
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 76
Loc: Tampa FL
Re: Ernesto [Re: danielw]
      #70876 - Fri Aug 25 2006 11:46 PM

Here's a pretty good model I just snagged for the shear figures. Doesn't indicate anything destructive:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc2...;hour=Animation

Actually looks pretty favorable for lessening of shear, although still in the non-conducive range currently, but looks to escape that soon.

--------------------
Amateur Weather Prognosticator and Cane Junkie.
www.hurricanewx.net

Edited by TampaRand (Fri Aug 25 2006 11:47 PM)


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Genesis
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 125
Re: Ernesto [Re: danielw]
      #70877 - Fri Aug 25 2006 11:48 PM

NOGAPS is seeing a break in the ridge that I was talking about being possible back a couple of pages.

I discount it for a number of reasons, the most important of which being the stability of the pattern in this area over the last week or two. While it is POSSIBLE for that sort of a break to occur, its not terribly likely.

With that said, I do see where it can happen and how. There's a buckle in the jet out west - if that comes eastward sufficiently and stays south far enough, it could fracture the ridge sufficiently to cause this sort of a recurve.

IF that sort of situation is going to set up we should know sometime on Sunday, and Ernesto will pass well east over Cuba of its current progg'd path. The WV Sunday should also show the jet buckle by that point on the playing field.

I don't put much stock in that solution as things sit right now - it still looks to me like the most likely path is somewhere between Corpus and Applach, with a bias towards the western half of that area, although I wouldn't rule out a recurvature until later this weekend.


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TampaRand
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 76
Loc: Tampa FL
Re: Ernesto [Re: Genesis]
      #70879 - Sat Aug 26 2006 12:03 AM

Yes, that is probably pretty correct. I am leaning strongly around Biloxi and have been struggling with that for a while. I see some recurvature, but not as drastic as NOGAPS makes it but certainly more poleward than the official track.

--------------------
Amateur Weather Prognosticator and Cane Junkie.
www.hurricanewx.net


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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Conditions right now [Re: Genesis]
      #70880 - Sat Aug 26 2006 12:09 AM

In general, something is going on right noe that I can't put a finger on...The forward progress of thunderstorm activity in the mean thunderstorm complex has recently stopped like it hit a brick wall on IR... Even though the tops are still spreading west on the vapor loop. As best I can tell from upper wind profiles...this shouldn't be from shear. But it has stopped. Likewise, outer banding on the NE side is progressing and banding o the SW side seems to be trying to get better defined. Additionally, looking at the water vapro, the dryer air pocket to the west is going bye, bye something fast and winds are trying set up in a ridge pattern in the upper levels from what I can tell. Maybe Ernesto is holding back a touch, or slowing down, or reforming a bit east. I can't tell...but the infered, shortwave, and water vapor are getting to be an interesting point of short term discussion tonight.

Edited by dem05 (Sat Aug 26 2006 12:10 AM)


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TampaRand
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 76
Loc: Tampa FL
Re: Conditions right now [Re: dem05]
      #70881 - Sat Aug 26 2006 12:16 AM

Yeah I just saw that and another curious thing is the shearing winds have been drastically increasing to 40-50kts and spread out like a 1000 miles or more-that is a suddenlycurious thing that just came in. I am starting to have some serious doubts about this system's survivability over the next 24 hours as it exists. It looked promising for development for a bit, but now have some serious questions. Here's what I am talklng about:


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

--------------------
Amateur Weather Prognosticator and Cane Junkie.
www.hurricanewx.net


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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 123
Re: Conditions right now [Re: TampaRand]
      #70882 - Sat Aug 26 2006 12:20 AM

Hurricane Hunters will fly out at 0600 UTC to Ernesto.

--------------------
W.D. Duncan


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Conditions right now [Re: dem05]
      #70883 - Sat Aug 26 2006 12:20 AM

I noticed the cirrus 'fingers' on the western half of the storm. I agree on the 'running into a wall'. It appears to be an elevated wall...but I haven't been able to determine which level.
It's looking to be mid level or higher though. As the lower clouds out west of the center are maintaining their appearance for the most part.

Looking at the AVN color enhancement. There doesn't appear to be much shear on the Western Half of the main storm.
Cirrus fingers. Central and NW Convective towers going up.
Also notice the increase in the inflow from South America.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn-l.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/sloop-avn.html

Edited by danielw (Sat Aug 26 2006 12:27 AM)


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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Conditions right now [Re: TampaRand]
      #70884 - Sat Aug 26 2006 12:27 AM

The map you have posted was a +3 hour forecast that was issued some time ago (Should update sometime soon). A thousand miles is a bit broad for what the map is showing...it's more like a few hundred at the most. I think your link came from this UWisc website. Actually, what is more important on that link is the tool bar at the top, click on shear tendancies...It shows they are dropping pretty good up to when the map you posted. I bet they are still dropping a bit. For those that do not have this link, here it is: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html

Thisis another piece to the puzzle to my previous post, I'm not finding any great shear when cloud tops are expanding west...maybe there is a little undercutting going on in the mid levels though. I am uncertain of that, but the mean cloud mass has slowed in it's forward progress for now. Maybe we see a little reformation tonight, but that is highly speculative.


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amonty
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 66
Loc: Clearwater, Fl
Re: Conditions right now [Re: dem05]
      #70885 - Sat Aug 26 2006 12:32 AM

The LLC is slipping further away from the center again. It's "hop scotching" is what I call it. I did it earlier today and yesterday. We'll see it die down a little until the convection gets a better grip on the LLC. Then it'll blow up again, and inevitably the NHC will adjust the forecast accordingly. It isn't moving in a fluid direction, it's jumping stopping spinning up. Then jumping again.

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TampaRand
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 76
Loc: Tampa FL
Re: Conditions right now [Re: dem05]
      #70886 - Sat Aug 26 2006 12:33 AM

You are right and it shows a steady decrease, already the latest model has de-intensified a lot-maybe a bit of an anomaly. I'm curious about those cirrus fingers, also. Has to be upper level stuff cruising with the wind. Probably not mid-level-more like floating ice.

--------------------
Amateur Weather Prognosticator and Cane Junkie.
www.hurricanewx.net


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Satellites [Re: TampaRand]
      #70887 - Sat Aug 26 2006 12:39 AM

Goes East should be in an Eclipse from 0415Z to 0615Z.
Please check the time on your satellite images. As they should stop updating shortly.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SATS/GOES/EAST/FL06-G12-Rout.html

We'll find out a bit more about Ernesto just shortly. Recon is airborne as of about 23 minutes ago.

Edited by danielw (Sat Aug 26 2006 12:40 AM)


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TampaRand
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 76
Loc: Tampa FL
Re: Satellites [Re: danielw]
      #70888 - Sat Aug 26 2006 12:42 AM

With that wind analysis, though,the upper level barbs are still pretty strong to the east, probably what those cirrus fingers are traveling with. Also, I'm just three miles north of where hte Hunters take off, sometimes we get to see those guys going down to look at the systems, but not tonight.

--------------------
Amateur Weather Prognosticator and Cane Junkie.
www.hurricanewx.net

Edited by TampaRand (Sat Aug 26 2006 12:46 AM)


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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Conditions right now [Re: TampaRand]
      #70890 - Sat Aug 26 2006 12:51 AM

You are right with the floting ice in the upper layer...You will get ice and Super cooled water droplets up there when t-storm cloud tops are as cold as they are (-80 and etc.). Daniel brings up an unfortunate point about the satellite eclipse coming up...Just went to the NASA website. Another massive t-storm complex is going up right about in the center of that brick wall I was talking about earlier. Here's the link there, it will by you one or two extra frames and updates more frequently than the floater. If you have never been there, use the interactive buttons for zooming in and animating. Link: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Satellites [Re: TampaRand]
      #70891 - Sat Aug 26 2006 12:52 AM

Rand, the Hurricane Hunters are also stationed in St. Croix for Carribean systems.

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TampaRand
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 76
Loc: Tampa FL
Re: Conditions right now [Re: dem05]
      #70892 - Sat Aug 26 2006 12:56 AM

Wow, that was a real big bloom of convection at the end of that loop-Impressive!!! Thanks for the link. I didn'tknow they had a St. Croix stationing also. Nice to know they are close by there.

--------------------
Amateur Weather Prognosticator and Cane Junkie.
www.hurricanewx.net

Edited by TampaRand (Sat Aug 26 2006 01:00 AM)


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