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Invest 97L has dropped to 30% chance of development over the next 5 days. Watching as it rapidly moves west over the Atlantic.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 330 (Nicholas) , Major: 345 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1399 (Michael) Major: 1399 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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nc_tropical_wx79
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 123
Re: Conditions right now [Re: dem05]
      #70893 - Sat Aug 26 2006 12:59 AM

I asked a Met on another site about your previous post and here's what he had to say about it:

"the next 24 to 36 hours are crucial. If it survives, then we are in trouble. What you are seeing is the Westerly shear. Its running into that wall of shear still. It is surviving currently because it is just East of the worse shear. We will see what happens the next 24 hours."

--------------------
W.D. Duncan


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HurryCaneForm
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 50
Loc: Baton Rouge, Louisiana.
Re: Conditions right now [Re: nc_tropical_wx79]
      #70895 - Sat Aug 26 2006 01:17 AM

I've checked some buoy's(below) and TS Ernesto is heading into some hot sea water and that means trouble if shearing environment is improving.

Near Jamaica the waters are near 82 Degrees celcius and near western cuba it's about 85 Degrees celcius.

I'll be ready for it.... No Doubt about that...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/West_Caribbean.shtml


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EugeneF
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 9
Re: Conditions right now [Re: nc_tropical_wx79]
      #70896 - Sat Aug 26 2006 01:17 AM

@5:05Z 08/26/06

During reconnaissance of tropical system Ernesto a maximum sustained wind speed of 53 mph at 4790 feet, and a maximum wind gust of 54 mph at 4797 feet, were found by the government plane.


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Doombot!
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 160
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
Re: Conditions right now [Re: HurryCaneForm]
      #70897 - Sat Aug 26 2006 01:25 AM

Quote:

Near Jamaica the waters are near 82 Degrees celcius and near western cuba it's about 85 Degrees celcius.

I'll be ready for it.... No Doubt about that...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/West_Caribbean.shtml




I suspect you mean 82-85 degrees F; 82-85 C would kill all the fish and lead to a Cat 13+ hurricane!


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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: Ernesto [Re: danielw]
      #70898 - Sat Aug 26 2006 01:26 AM

Quote:

NOGAPS may be reading a weakness in the ridge or a shortwave moving through.
One of the 18Z models did have a weakness in the 500mb ridge. I wish I could remember which one it was.




Here is what the NOGAPS and now GFS are responding to - a break in the upper ridge in the central GOM which will allow the storm to move northward. This from the 00Z GFS run. The culprit may be an upper level low/through that migrates from CO through the plains and eventally over KY/TENN in the next 4-5 days. It may have just enough punch to weaken the ridge. The latest GFS run shows the storm stalling off p'cola and drifting south and then east similar to what Elena did back in 1985. Sure hope that doesn't pan out as a large portion of the Gulf Coast will suffer for many days with this storm. I just don't see anything in the next 7-10 days to drive this storm too far northward into the continental US so if this becomes a major hurricane and it stalls & meanders, that would truly be a very bad situation.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_144s.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/index_slp_s_loop.shtml

--------------------
RJB


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Model Runs [Re: Genesis]
      #70899 - Sat Aug 26 2006 01:29 AM

I watched the 11pm update and it seems to me that some of the models have recurved a little to the right -- it may have only been 2 & and they didn't say which ones they were but they had changed since 5pm. However, I don't see this in the 11pm update on Skeetobite's model plot...so are these outliers or is it possible that the conditions could indeed recurve it?
Would a weakness in that 500mb ridge allow this to happen?

One thing that I hate the most: that the models project a storm to go west and slowly but surely the track begins to bend back to the east; vice versa. Guess we'll find out soon enough.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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HurryCaneForm
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 50
Loc: Baton Rouge, Louisiana.
Re: Conditions right now *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: Doombot!]
      #70900 - Sat Aug 26 2006 01:30 AM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: Model Runs [Re: Colleen A.]
      #70902 - Sat Aug 26 2006 01:42 AM

Colleen, the weakness in the 500 mb ridge is where the storm will travel (path of least resistance). The global models (NOGAPs, GFS) have shifted the farthest to the east - these are not included on Skeeterbites map. Here are the latest 00Z runs. This one doesn't include the latest GFS which I posted earlier. Right now, the area of greatest concern would be the north-central gulf coast - but it will no doubt change as we're 5-6 days out.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

--------------------
RJB


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: Model Runs [Re: Ron Basso]
      #70903 - Sat Aug 26 2006 01:53 AM

Thanks, Ron. That exactly what I saw earlier and what had me concerned. You are right, it will change in the next week ... and I guess that will all depend on that 500mb ridge and whatever other factors come into play. Thanks again.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Happy Birthday hurricaneguy
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 80
Loc: Greeneville, TN
Re: Model Runs [Re: Colleen A.]
      #70904 - Sat Aug 26 2006 02:01 AM

We have to keep the hope alive that the shear ahead of Ernesto will stay strong and cripple the system. The Weather Channel still has high hopes that the storm might get ripped apart durning the next 24hrs however TWC has always been very conservative with these storms this year. Only time will tell but this time tomorrow I think we will be waiting on the next storm to form in the Atlantic or be talking about how GOM is in really big trouble.

--------------------


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Happy Birthday hurricaneguy
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 80
Loc: Greeneville, TN
Re: Model Runs [Re: hurricaneguy]
      #70905 - Sat Aug 26 2006 02:04 AM

REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...14.7 N...69.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.

Nooooooo! The storm is slowing down, the best case for Ernesto not us. Plus pressure is falling! We need some shear and we need some fast.

--------------------


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Texas Cane Tracker
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 21
Loc: Tomball, TX
Re: Model Runs [Re: hurricaneguy]
      #70906 - Sat Aug 26 2006 02:07 AM

WTNT35 KNHC 260557
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM Ernesto INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
200 AM AST SAT AUG 26 2006

...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS A BETTER ORGANIZED Ernesto...

Looks like Ernesto is pulling itself together this early morning. If shear to the west relaxes as forecasts, there won't be much in it's way to deter strengthening over the next few day.


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JustMe
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 128
Loc: Orlando, Florida
Re: Model Runs [Re: hurricaneguy]
      #70907 - Sat Aug 26 2006 02:22 AM

does this mean that Erensto will survie the shear and amke it into the GOM

--------------------

I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,


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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Model Runs [Re: JustMe]
      #70908 - Sat Aug 26 2006 02:39 AM

Satellite eclipse is over, 6:15 and 6:31 UTC image is up....KA BOOM!!! Ernesto is getting better organized for sure! It's not up on floater yet, so here's the NASA link again...click the animate radio button, then click right over Ernesto.
Link: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

Edited by dem05 (Sat Aug 26 2006 02:40 AM)


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Happy Birthday hurricaneguy
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 80
Loc: Greeneville, TN
Re: Model Runs [Re: JustMe]
      #70909 - Sat Aug 26 2006 02:41 AM

Quote:

does this mean that Erensto will survie the shear and amke it into the GOM




It looks like it will but there still some shear to the west of the storm don't start the evacuations just yet. We need to pray for shear.

--------------------


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: Model Runs [Re: hurricaneguy]
      #70910 - Sat Aug 26 2006 03:25 AM

Quote:

Quote:

does this mean that Erensto will survie the shear and amke it into the GOM




It looks like it will but there still some shear to the west of the storm don't start the evacuations just yet. We need to pray for shear.




i think someone said or else i read this somewhere that the shear will be there if the storm continues to move fast, but the storm will slow down near Cuba and miss the shear, unfortunatley. I read this somewhere im goin to try and find the link.

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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Happy Birthday hurricaneguy
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 80
Loc: Greeneville, TN
Re: Model Runs [Re: Ryan]
      #70911 - Sat Aug 26 2006 03:54 AM

During a reconnaissance of tropical system Ernesto a maximum sustained wind speed of 60 mph was found at 4797 feet. Storm is gaining wind speed fast.

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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Model Runs [Re: hurricaneguy]
      #70912 - Sat Aug 26 2006 04:32 AM

Don't get too excited too soon. Storms like these always look healthy at night. Then as the day comes on, they die down. There are exceptions to the rule. The thing that has me worried is that there has not been even one hurricane yet this season, to simmer down the water or to stir the pot. Katrina year had several bloomers before she took center stage. Earnesto seems more put together than all the rest combined this year. Hopefully he will find a deserted island to aggravate.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2133
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Model Runs [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #70916 - Sat Aug 26 2006 05:26 AM

Morning

Some very key things to take note of this early -

First, from the 5AM update: "ALL GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER Ernesto..." (NOT at all a good thing if you were hoping and expecting Ernesto to get killed dead or at least drastically hampered by shear) ..

Second, a counterpoint - While it is clear to this viewer that Ernesto already has the ULR building on top of him, his western half is starting to feel a little extra pinch from that southwesterly shear - will want to watch this for signs of possible deep erosion as the day continues. However, if such deep erosion does not occur, especially if/while the ridge becomes even more pronounced, I believe we can pretty much kiss the chances of Ernesto kicking the bucket goodbye - and start to count on something else.

Ernesto has now dropped to 999mb - and has developed a significant temperature gradient between his embryonic eye and the surrounding environment. Taken together with the building upper level protection, should the ULL pull far enough out of his way, it is this observer's opinion that we could easily be looking at Hurricane Ernesto by this time Sunday morning. Which takes me to the next point -

NHC is now officially forecasting 100 knots on Day 5 - and - as if to make matters worse, has pulled the cone in, in response to an anticipated significant slowdown of forward speed. Ergo, 100 knots may even be conservative should such a scenario play out and a fully-stacked and healthy Hurricane Ernesto be cooking over that Loop Current Eddy.

There is still plenty of time for the models and NHC to be getting this wrong. The ULL may not play along, and still beat Ernesto down to the ground. The ULL further to the north (NE of Cuba) may decide to help produce a nasty shear zone. Unforeseens may arise. However, by all accounts, the time left for these things to do their thing on Ernesto before he starts calling the shots is running out.

--------------------
Fully vaccinated as of May 2021
(Moderna x2)


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Tak
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 41
Loc: Altamonte Springs, FL
Re: Model Runs [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #70917 - Sat Aug 26 2006 05:29 AM

Yeah, it definitely looks like it went through its diurnal convective max cycle.
Those 850 mb flight level winds typically translate to 80% of that at the surface. And the 5 am update keeps it at 40 kts - 46 mph or 80% of those 60 mph flight level winds.


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