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MikeCAdministrator
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Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean
      #70762 - Fri Aug 25 2006 04:05 PM

7 AM Update 8/26

Ernesto has made it through the night, and probably some of the worst shear it will encounter, which leaves just a bit more shear today and tomorrow, but gradually upper level high pressure will build over it, giving it the potential to become a major hurricane as it nears Cuba and eventually into the Gulf of Mexico.

Overall Ernesto became more organized overnight.



For Jamaica, currently it is forecast to be a stronger Tropical Storm as it approaches the island. A tropical storm watch remains up for the island, if Ernesto were to strengthen more than forecast in the short term, it may be possible to see a hurricane warning or watch as well.

Beyond Jamaica things begin to be interesting, the western tip of Cuba likely will be impacted from this system, by then most likely a hurricane. Beyond Cuba, it is currently forecast to be in the Central Gulf of Mexico, which I don't like to see as it puts a very large area of coastline under the gun at least for future track. Anywhere in the cone needs to be on the watch for this system. As far west as Texas, and east as Florida. The models have trended more east overnight too, but I'm waiting to see if this persists through the day to bank on that. Unforunately, conditions are setting up to allow the system to become a strong hurricane in the Gulf.

Midnight Update
Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued from the Haiti-Dominican Republic Border westward to the Southwestern tip of Haiti.
A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Jamaica

Interests in the Cayman Islands and Cuba should monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Ernesto.

4:40PM Update
Tropical Storm watches are up for southwest Haiti, and Tropical storm watches are also up for Jamaica.

Original Update
From Recon Reports and observations, it is apparant that Tropical Storm Ernesto has formed, and the next advisory should reflect this.

The center of circulation may be a bit ahead, but the storm still has reached enough strength to be considered a tropical storm.



More to come soon.


Event Related Links
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Ernesto

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
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Hawkeyewx
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #70767 - Fri Aug 25 2006 04:33 PM

It appears the shear has lessened a bit over the surface vortex and that has enabled new convection to fire up on its eastern side. If the western Caribbean upper low continues to pull the shear zone back to the north and west the convection could really get going directly over the vortex once again. If the shear continues to slowly lessen overnight then Ernesto could have the green light to rev up.

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Cat 5orBust
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #70768 - Fri Aug 25 2006 04:35 PM

awaiting the 5 pm discussion, but just another side note and i dont want to make anything of it, but i just saw joe bastardi on a cable news network and he talked briefly about Ernesto and then pointed out the area just off the soutehast coast (GA) and said he is keeping an eye on that area for "backyard" development. if that continues to persist that could be our next area.

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parrishNfl
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean [Re: Hawkeyewx]
      #70772 - Fri Aug 25 2006 04:44 PM

I am still wondering about the bundle of activity in the GOM...Have any of the variables changed in the last day that are going to make a difference on steering once Ernesto is in the Gulf? Thanks so much.

tohidu - Peace


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hurricaneguy
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean [Re: Cat 5orBust]
      #70773 - Fri Aug 25 2006 04:44 PM

Well we now have Ernesto, not suprised at all. It looks like the storm is still holding together, a little spilt up though, but the NHC has the storm gaining strength still. Plus Max Mayfield just announced his retirement from the NHC. He will be missed and I want to say thanks for a great 6 years of forecasting!

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Steve H1
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #70775 - Fri Aug 25 2006 04:46 PM

Hawkeyewx made an excellent post in the previous thread regarding the convection moving back toward the LLC and the ULL tracking west at a good pace away from Ernesto. This should cause the shear to subside gradually and convection to return over the LCC. If/when this occurs Ernie should begin a deepening process. Eventually, the ULL will get to a position where it will be west of the system and may induce a more WNW motion.

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johnnyg
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: hurricaneguy]
      #70776 - Fri Aug 25 2006 04:47 PM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

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pcola
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean [Re: johnnyg]
      #70777 - Fri Aug 25 2006 04:51 PM

The fact that they have the system slowing dramatically in the Gulf is of concern. It looks like they are not sure about the strength of the ridge, whether it turns north or continues northwest. That area is not a good one to slow down in, especially if there is no shear. It will definately be an interesting 48 hours.

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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johnnyg
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean [Re: pcola]
      #70778 - Fri Aug 25 2006 04:53 PM

Wow, that was a pretty onimous discussion at 5pm!!! we still need to wait another 12-24hrs before we can tell what's going to happen to Ernesto in the future, but reading that discussion makes me think that the NHC are getting a little concerned for the Gulf coast. Especially if 1 of the computer models stall the storm in the Central Gulf of Mexico..

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TampaRand
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #70779 - Fri Aug 25 2006 04:56 PM

Just noticed NHC has moved the official track further right-closer to GFDL and NOGAPS. The center still looks a lot exposed and does it seem to anyone else that the circulation has shifted a bit northwards?

--------------------
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Cat 5orBust
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #70781 - Fri Aug 25 2006 05:01 PM

it doess look like a little bit more of a northerly component, but until this thing consolidates well wait and see. it is interesting looking at the visible the convection trying to "catch up" with the circulation that is ahead of it. if a slightly more northern track takes place then at 11 we ill see a ne cane shifting a bit more to the right. south florida might be coming into the picture more as time goes on.

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WeatherNLU
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean [Re: TampaRand]
      #70782 - Fri Aug 25 2006 05:03 PM

Looking good as far as the center not forming under the convection. The LLC seems to be holding and the convection remains off to its east. This sadly might be our only chance to avoid a major hurricane making landfall in the United States come the end of next week.

I am off to work, so I will check back in when I get home in the wee hours of Saturday morning.

Sending all the voodoo from New Orleans down to the Caribbean that I can!

--------------------
I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!


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StPeteBill
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean [Re: TampaRand]
      #70783 - Fri Aug 25 2006 05:10 PM

I know it is very early in the game here but does anyone think that Ernesto could pull a Charlie and curve back towards the west coast of Florida. I quote .....

Colorado meteorologists predict 2006 hurricane season
By SUZETTE PORTER

PINELLAS COUNTY - Experts say there is a 64 percent chance that at least one major hurricane will hit the Florida Peninsula during the 2006 season.

http://www.tbnweekly.com/special_section...son-predict.txt

think the reporter got it wrong. 64% chance of the east coast + florida peninsula, not FL alone. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Aug 25 2006 05:42 PM)


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anastasia
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean [Re: StPeteBill]
      #70784 - Fri Aug 25 2006 05:16 PM

what are the corridnates i need them for homework asap

left side of the screen. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Aug 25 2006 05:40 PM)


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wxman007
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Fujiwara?? [Re: StPeteBill]
      #70785 - Fri Aug 25 2006 05:17 PM

If the 18Z NAM is right...maybe...

18Z NAM SLP Loop

That being said, I have very little faith in the NAM these days....even less than before.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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sara33
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean [Re: StPeteBill]
      #70786 - Fri Aug 25 2006 05:22 PM

Please correct me if I am wrong, but isn't Ernesto coming up against some pretty strong wind shear. I could be reading this wrong, but it looks that way to me
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/archive/wg8shr-1.html
Christine


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cieldumort
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean [Re: sara33]
      #70788 - Fri Aug 25 2006 05:28 PM

That shear is being induced by the ULL to Ernesto's west, that is forecast to pull west or southwest, itself - and stay "ahead" of Ernesto. Essentially, it is expected to break free of the TUTT. Ergo, marginally favorable shear while Ernesto is in the Carib is expected to continue - more or less -

What could be much, much worse, would be for the ULL to close off as it pulls away from the TUTT, and help induce a strong outflow channel for Ernesto. This is essentially what happened with Katrina last year as she was heading into east Florida.

--------------------
Fully vaccinated as of May 2021
(Moderna x2)


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TampaRand
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Re: Fujiwara?? [Re: wxman007]
      #70789 - Fri Aug 25 2006 05:28 PM

Quote:

If the 18Z NAM is right...maybe...

18Z NAM SLP Loop

That being said, I have very little faith in the NAM these days....even less than before.




This is what I have been bloging. The door is going to be kicked open for whatever this becomes to enter the GOM. And I can see that being the West Central Gulf. That ridge is going to recede. If this ever gets it's act together the door will be wide open.

--------------------
Amateur Weather Prognosticator and Cane Junkie.
www.hurricanewx.net


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SHush
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #70791 - Fri Aug 25 2006 05:37 PM

I know this is unlikely to happen, but Ernesto almost looks like it is heading right towards HISPANOLA, if it takes a more northerly path and is near hispanola the MOUNTAINS could diffenently have an impact on the system's circulation

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HanKFranK
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future [Re: WeatherNLU]
      #70792 - Fri Aug 25 2006 05:38 PM

the track clustering is fairly good through 3-4 days, but gets sketchy after that (after cuba). it's reasonable to assume that the track through that period is good.. the intensity is reasonable as well due to land interaction (i.e., it may be a little stronger, but probably not a large hurricane until right before or right after it gets into the gulf).
in the gulf is where things get really interesting. the globals are showing that the ridging over the southeast weakens/gets squashed by another dip in the jet going into early next week... at this point i can see three basic options:
1) the system is strong enough (i.e., major hurricane) and the trough is strong enough to recurve it... but it will be recurving through a ridge, slowing down.. and more or less aimed at the florida panhandle. it would likely contact the westerlies and be spinning down some at landfall. it might also get dropped by the shortwave and stuck over the southeast to drift slowly and rain on everyone like hell over labor day weekend. it could potentially be a viable system near the carolina coast after labor day, under this speculative path. something like the mobile hurricane in 1852.
2) the middle option... the storm feels the shortwave but just so.. and the slows down over the central gulf to near a crawl as the ridge builds back... and has enough time over the gulf to go through multiple eyewall cycles... basically it is one hellish hurricane.. but moves slowly as it gnaws away at the ridge and keeps trying to insert itself into the weakness. ends up in louisiana-alabama and also has time to spin down prior to landfall. might get stuck inland in the southeast and rain itself out. not sure of an analog, which may represent a flaw in my speculation. georges, 1998, loosely?
3) go west, young man. the ridging is stronger, the trough doesn't provide much of a snag, and the storm keeps up the pace more westerly, and is a texas/western louisiana threat. this storm could potentially come in at a faster clip. dependent on whether it's just gone through an eyewall cycle or is going into a deepening phase, possibly presents the chance of the largest amount of wind damage. the 1865 hurricane, or maybe that God-forsaken indianola monster in 1886 would serve as analogs.

safest bet right now is that if something like the NHC official pans out, the storm will become a major hurricane over the gulf, but at landfall would likely be in the cat 2-3 range as most are. not going to lean towards south texas or mexico as much anymore, but if the system is still a tropical storm and hovering near the yucatan in 3-4 days, that is still in play.
it's really down to these options, the way i see it. i don't really have a strong leaning towards any one right now. Ernesto still finds a way to die in the next day or so, or it hits the gulf coast as a hurricane (good possibility a major) some time late next week. most likely thursday-saturday.
HF 2138z25august


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TampaRand
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Re: future [Re: HanKFranK]
      #70793 - Fri Aug 25 2006 05:47 PM

I am in pretty close agreement with that, the one kicker being that if the ridge does build back in and it heads towards Texas, it will have to cross the cooler Gulf Loop Current and then starts replacing eyewall. Seems like cooler water always tends to make them do that due to cross turbulence at the eyewall. I wonder why that is.Maybe just coincidental, but it seems as though they do a lot of those cycles when substantially cooler temp water is passed over. Moist convection? Any ideas? Not wanting to hijack the thread, but if anybody has a good answer to that please PM me.

--------------------
Amateur Weather Prognosticator and Cane Junkie.
www.hurricanewx.net


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anon tiger
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Re: future [Re: HanKFranK]
      #70794 - Fri Aug 25 2006 05:53 PM

Is it me or has the thunderstorms caught back up to the LLC?

Looking at the visibles and the AVN it appears the high clouds are now over the LLC>

Anyone else seeing the same thing?


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Tak
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean [Re: StPeteBill]
      #70795 - Fri Aug 25 2006 05:53 PM

Go to this site for specific lanfall probabilities

http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane/welcome.html


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Lysis
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Re: future [Re: HanKFranK]
      #70796 - Fri Aug 25 2006 06:00 PM

Camille, Gilbert, Allen…
While not necessarily analogous to Ernesto, there are lots of doomsday scenarios ripe for blossoming considering the timetable we are in –this could be an interesting week.

Nice analysis Hank.

As long as you stay past 80W…
perhaps Frederic (79’), Eloise (75') for the middle analogue?
There are a lot of interesting Gulf recurvatures in the otherwise comparatively inactive late 60’s/70’s.

Edited by Lysis (Fri Aug 25 2006 06:17 PM)


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GuppieGrouper
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Re: future [Re: Lysis]
      #70797 - Fri Aug 25 2006 06:15 PM

Another track that sort of looks similar is Abby in 1960. It seems to be ever so close to the same area as Ernesto is now and at about the same intensity give or take a few knots.

--------------------
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pcola
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Re: future [Re: Lysis]
      #70798 - Fri Aug 25 2006 06:15 PM

The center looks to be tracking north of the NHC forecast points, and convection is getting closer. ems the shear, at least temporarily, is lessening. The track of Ernesto so far is very similiar to Dennis last year.

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: future [Re: pcola]
      #70799 - Fri Aug 25 2006 06:24 PM

Herei is a map that contains Dennis, Ernesto, and Abby, mentioned above as well as Gilbert and Ivan.

Link to Map

I'm concerned a bit about the further north movement for now, but want to see how it persists through the night. I'll try to get something new around 11AM tomorrow on it.


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Random Chaos
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Re: future [Re: MikeC]
      #70800 - Fri Aug 25 2006 06:27 PM

It's hard to tell whether it's jogging north or not. The convection appears to have reformed north of where it had been within the last 2-3 hours, which may visually disturb our nice strait track without actually shifting the vortex center north. Check out the IR loop on GHCC: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html

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weather_wise911
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Re: future [Re: Random Chaos]
      #70801 - Fri Aug 25 2006 06:32 PM

I have plotted the track on the visible loop, and the LLC is indeed on a WNW track--though, yes--it does appear to have a more northerly component to it.


WW-911


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Ryan
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Ernesto [Re: weather_wise911]
      #70802 - Fri Aug 25 2006 06:45 PM

i cannot believe Ernesto could be a hurricane in the gulf a year after Katrina was. this is a very scary thought.

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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Hugh
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Re: Ernesto [Re: Ryan]
      #70803 - Fri Aug 25 2006 07:19 PM

Scary, indeed. I've said for two days, I've got a bad feeling about Ernesto. I've seen very little today, beyond the shear which now appears to be subsiding, to change my bad feeling.

Reading HF's scenarios, I can readily see two of the three coming to pass. Maybe it's just that I've got it in for myself, but I tend to favor the FL Panhandle to Louisiana scenario rather than the "Go West" one. Just can't see a powerful hurricane NOT moving poleward, and I think Ernesto could potentially be a powerful hurricane in the Gulf (I'm thinking at least a strong Cat 2).

Feels alot like deja vu.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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SirCane
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Re: Ernesto [Re: Hugh]
      #70804 - Fri Aug 25 2006 07:24 PM

A CAT 2 in the Gulf would be a whole lot better of a situation than the CAT 5 Katrina and that deadly CAT 5 surge. Not a good one, but still not as bad. I couldn't believe last year getting hit by Dennis ONLY 9 months after getting hit by Ivan. The tropics are so unpredictable.

I expect that the forecast track is going to change. I just hope for the best. This area from West Louisiana to around Destin, Florida has had ENOUGH after the last 2 seasons.

--------------------
Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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hawg92
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Re: Ernesto [Re: SirCane]
      #70805 - Fri Aug 25 2006 07:30 PM

Does it look like an eye is forming in the latest infrared loop? This thing could intensify faster than they expect.

--------------------
We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence then, is not an act but a habit - Aristotle


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nc_tropical_wx79
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Re: Ernesto [Re: hawg92]
      #70806 - Fri Aug 25 2006 07:32 PM

Now can a mod/met and anyone tell me is Ernesto moving nw or is it a jog or an illusion? I see what looks like a NW movement but am not sure if it is a jog, or really moving, or an illusion because of convection.

--------------------
W.D. Duncan

Edited by nc_tropical_wx79 (Fri Aug 25 2006 07:33 PM)


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Hugh
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Re: Ernesto [Re: SirCane]
      #70807 - Fri Aug 25 2006 07:32 PM

I completely agree, we've had way too many. Hopefully Ernesto won't get any stronger than a Cat 2. One thing that I find at least a bit "comforting" if such can be said about the potential for a hurricane hitting, is that the last several hurricanes that have impacted here have been weakening as they came onshore. Dennis was powerful, but very small (we didn't even get much rain here in Valp.). Ivan was a different story of course.

You're right, the forecast will change. Which way it changes will be very interesting.

Quote:

Does it look like an eye is forming in the latest infrared loop? This thing could intensify faster than they expect.




No, that's not an eye. That's a black area which represents a colder cloud top than the red around it. I do think that the LLC has moved to under the CDO, though. We'll see what the intermediate advisory says and what the next recon finds, but I suspect IF the shear lets up significantly, Ernesto will become the season's first hurricane by Sunday morning.


--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Fri Aug 25 2006 07:35 PM)


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rmbjoe1954
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Re: Ernesto [Re: hawg92]
      #70808 - Fri Aug 25 2006 07:32 PM

Ernesto is entering hostile territory with that upper low to its west- but I understand the low is also moving west -and an equally hostile environment to its north. If it veers NW it may stand a chance- but will know enough tomorrow.

Edited by rmbjoe1954 (Fri Aug 25 2006 07:35 PM)


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GuppieGrouper
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Re: Ernesto [Re: hawg92]
      #70809 - Fri Aug 25 2006 07:35 PM

There is no eye. There is a center of circulation which shows up on colorized satellite pictures some times. However, sometimes there are other spots that are intense temperatures that show up darker as well and they are not centers. Sometimes a category one does not have an obvious eye on satellites especially infrared colorized shots. Visable is the best way for the non-experts to spot the eye and it is still guess work without the equipment that recon and NHC has. But guessing is fun.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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weather_wise911
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Re: Ernesto [Re: nc_tropical_wx79]
      #70810 - Fri Aug 25 2006 07:38 PM

I posted earlier that I plotted the COC, and did notice a SLIGHT jog to the NW, but it only lasted about 30 minutes, or so.

The forward motion is WNW---NOT NW---


WW-911


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wereallgonnadie
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Re: Ernesto [Re: Hugh]
      #70811 - Fri Aug 25 2006 07:39 PM

Being in Northern Walton County certainly don't want that to happen and don't expect it will. Hopefully it'll be a little Dennis wherever it hits.

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Clark
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Re: Ernesto [Re: nc_tropical_wx79]
      #70812 - Fri Aug 25 2006 07:46 PM

Ernesto is jogging around, going from west to northwest, with an average motion of about west-northwest. It's racing along though; the 5p advisory speed of 16mph is probably 5-10mph too slow for what has been seen over the past 8 hours or so. The convection continues to play catch up with the LLC and is now currently just over the LLC, but it's going to race right into that shear zone and kill itself if it doesn't slow down...and quick.

The upper low to the west is moving west-southwest, but nowhere near as fast as is Ernesto. Let's see what happens overnight with the storm, as I have a feeling the next 18-24hr are going to tell us a lot as to whether or not we'll have a significant feature to track into the Gulf into next week. Best bet is that overnight, the system slows and reorganizes near or under the deepest convection, then becomes sheared again into tomorrow before conditions progressively become more favorable in 2-3 days or so. Models are starting to pinpoint the northern Gulf coast for an eventual target, but that's just idle speculation right now. Let's see whether or not Ernesto slows down and stays away from the shear zone overnight.

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dem05
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Re: Ernesto [Re: wereallgonnadie]
      #70813 - Fri Aug 25 2006 07:54 PM

Folks...Folks...I'm not a moderator here, but living in Charlotte County I feel the same way as do many people along the Gulf Coast...So it's a bit of a given that I can sympathize with, but it's too early to call a gulf coast landfall and we need to be mindfull of Gulf Coast residents, with a lesser understanding of the weather, but a desire to know where this is going may be looking at this site for info...Comments maybe misconstrued as an indication of where this is going, and while nobody knows, this could cause uneccessary concern for some. Please be mindful of that. Maybe it's best to stick to the here and now through 5 days in our discussions.

In the mean. Yes...right up to sunset, it did appear that Ernesto was slightly north of the forecast track. However, I would not say it was a northwestmotion either. Jaimaica is a long island, but very narrow from north to south. These subtle changes could be the difference between something that moves right over the isladn to something that threads the needle between Jaimaica and Hospanola.

Upper air...I just can't get a firm feel for the future by looking at the water vapor. The upper low to the west is indeed dropping southwest, and the one to the north is moving west. The two are interconnected by the shear zone to the SW of each. There is some indication of a split going on which would give an favorable atmosphere, but then again...a bit of a trough (looking feature) is dropping southward from the upper low to the north. On one hand, this could help to create the split and develop an outflow channel to the north. On the other hand...it could drop to far south and the shear axis could survive between the two upper lows. At this time, it's beyond my understanding of meteorology and to tough for me to call.

Edited by dem05 (Fri Aug 25 2006 07:55 PM)


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SirCane
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Re: Ernesto [Re: Clark]
      #70814 - Fri Aug 25 2006 07:58 PM

I was watching the news and they said the shear to Ernesto's west is supposed to relax in the next 24 hours. I didn't like the sound of that. Once it gets past that area of shear, there is going to be prime conditions in the West Caribbean for Ernesto to develop.

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Tak
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Re: Ernesto [Re: Clark]
      #70815 - Fri Aug 25 2006 08:00 PM

Looks like Ernesto is leaving an area of 10 kt shear and approaching an area of 40-50 kt wsw shear. Clark, if that is from the upper level low, question is how long that will be in place.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html


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CoalCracker
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Re: Ernesto [Re: Clark]
      #70816 - Fri Aug 25 2006 08:01 PM

Interesting how the latest GFDL has moved left and close to NHC's track (check the SFWMD plots or the Skeeto tracking map once it's updated). Having tweaked the track at 5PM, my take is we'll see little if any track change until the next recon reports back early tomorrow. Not trying to imply anything except that it's still too early to tell what Ernesto will be and where he'll go. Way too many variables right now. Stay infomed and semper paratus.

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wereallgonnadie
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Re: Ernesto [Re: Clark]
      #70817 - Fri Aug 25 2006 08:05 PM

Anyone remember Earl?

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Genesis
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Re: Ernesto [Re: Hugh]
      #70818 - Fri Aug 25 2006 08:14 PM

I've been staring at the upper level winds for a couple of days now, consulting my divining rod and looking at the weather this summer - which has been, well, somewhat odd around here (Panhandle) in an attempt to get a handle on this thing.

Here's my analysis thus far, as best I can see it...

1. The ULL is clearly pulling away to the west. And its boogieing too. 12 hour loop on the WV shows it from roughly the eastern tip of Cuba almost to the midsection and slightly south of where it was 12 hours back. At the same time, Ernesto has moved a SMALLER distance westward over the same 12 hours. In other words, it does NOT appear that Ernesto is going to get TUTTed like our "C" storm did.

2. We've had this very odd (for this time of year) pattern over the panhandle the last few days with a stationary front sitting over the area, firing off nasty convection pretty much nonstop, both over land and water. The WV loop shows what appears to be some buckling setting up over that boundary, but whether it really happens or gets repelled - as it has for the last few days - is going to be pivotal. It is that dry/cold : moist warm interface that has been kicking off all the convection around here, and that sort of stability over a multi-day period is pretty extraordinary in these parts. I don't recall anything quite like it in August going back several years.... There's a surface low and trough pushing eastward that looks to be disrupting this frontal boundary - finally!

3. The gulf itself is ripe and low-shear once that ULL clears out, and it sure looks like its going to. There's really nothing out there in the gulf itself to hinder this thing from going "boom" once it reaches the gulf waters. That's not good.

The current boundary that is after the stationary front will go through before Ernesto can get on the field in the Gulf, so that one is not a factor. Driving that is an impulse from the Jet, which, if it stays far enough south, could present the troughiness to break up the ridging and result in the poleward turn.

I don't see the Florida West Coast / up the East Coast scenario here. I see the danger zone as more from roughly Appalachicola westward to Corpus, which is a hell of a lot of real estate.... .then again we're talking about something nearly a week out - and this assumes that we don''t get a breakdown in steering flows. If the pattern we have had the last few days in the gulf were to re-establish itself, this thing may come up in the center of the gulf and basically stall, waiting for a break in the ridging before it makes its move... that could put the entire gulf in play quite easily.


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sara33
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Re: Ernesto [Re: wereallgonnadie]
      #70819 - Fri Aug 25 2006 08:15 PM

Is the GFDL usually pretty conservative with the storm intensity? Just curious because I have only been storm watching for about a year?? Also, Doesn't NHC favor GFDL over other models?
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/ ( early cycle intensity guide frame 1)

Thanks,
Christine


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Daniel294
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Re: Ernesto [Re: sara33]
      #70820 - Fri Aug 25 2006 08:21 PM

Actually it's the exact opposite. GFDL tends to be rather agressive with intensity when it develops a storm.

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ShanaTX
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Re: Ernesto [Re: dem05]
      #70821 - Fri Aug 25 2006 08:26 PM

Exactly... I don't think anyone can predict with any degree of accuracy what's going to happen with Ernesto after (if) he gets into the Gulf.

Heck he hasn't even made it past Jamaica - and Jamaica causes all kinds of wobbles in hurricane paths.....


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hurricaneguy
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Re: Ernesto [Re: ShanaTX]
      #70822 - Fri Aug 25 2006 08:32 PM

Wow talk about a huge blow up of conection around the center. This storm is taking advantage of the low shear enviroment. Now the question is, how will the stronger shear in the western Caribbean affect Ernesto?

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Random Chaos
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Re: Ernesto [Re: hurricaneguy]
      #70823 - Fri Aug 25 2006 08:49 PM

Yeah, very strong convective core firing up now. If it can sustain it, we could see rapid intensification. I remember our W did something similar last year.

You can really see it here: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-jsl.html

Edited by Random Chaos (Fri Aug 25 2006 08:53 PM)


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Hugh
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Re: Ernesto [Re: Random Chaos]
      #70824 - Fri Aug 25 2006 08:57 PM

Quote:

Yeah, very strong convective core firing up now. If it can sustain it, we could see rapid intensification. I remember our W did something similar last year.





Something similar? I hope this isn't something similar. Wilma went from a tropical storm, to a major hurricane the next day, to He** on Earth the next morning as a plane found the most intense hurricane on record in the Gulf.

This isn't going to do that, not yet anyway (hopefully, not ever!)

Edit: I just loaded the JSL loop (had been looking at the AVN loop). Very impressive indeed!
Edit 2: Now the AVN image has that look too...and I can see how someone might think it looks like Wilma did. This isn't Wilma, but I do believe the winds will be up at 10pm, and that this will be a 'cane sooner, rather than later.


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Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Fri Aug 25 2006 09:45 PM)


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hawg92
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Re: Ernesto [Re: Hugh]
      #70825 - Fri Aug 25 2006 08:59 PM

Quote:

No, that's not an eye. That's a black area which represents a colder cloud top than the red around it. I do think that the LLC has moved to under the CDO, though. We'll see what the intermediate advisory says and what the next recon finds, but I suspect IF the shear lets up significantly, Ernesto will become the season's first hurricane by Sunday morning.




That may not be a fully developed eye, but it is still intact and I believe it is going to become the eye. Ernesto appears to have intensified quite a bit in the last couple of hours.

Jack

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Random Chaos
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Re: Ernesto [Re: hawg92]
      #70826 - Fri Aug 25 2006 09:02 PM

We're two hours off the next advisory...we'll see what is says when it comes. That said, the 18Z run of GFDL has a stready strengthening of the storm through it's life to Cat 3 surface (Cat 4 elevated) before landfall on the gulf coast (too far out to even guess where). This compares to the 12Z GFDL run that had only weak strengtening over the next 5 days.

Edit: Hugh, interestingly the coldest cloud tops correspond to the estimated center on SSD's site (click the track estimate on the JSL image loop). That thing's sitting over the vortex core. If it was out swirling around, it wouldn't be quite so menacing. I'm waiting for NRL to get an 85GHz pass on the system - then we'll see what it's internal structure is.

Edit 2: NRL just updated their site to list Ernesto instead of Storm 5. Now they have to regenerate their overpass estimates before I have an idea when the 85GHz will appear

--RC

Edited by Random Chaos (Fri Aug 25 2006 09:07 PM)


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dem05
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Re: Ernesto [Re: Hugh]
      #70827 - Fri Aug 25 2006 09:02 PM

That convection is firing...but it's not over the center...it is displaced to the SE of the center. You can see the center is on the NW edge of the deep convection via the shortwave loop. Here ya go: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html
With that said, it's pretty darn good convection and keeping the life in Ernesto, but I doubt we are about to see any rapid intensification tonight. However, strengthening could happen if the activity gets itself poinsed directly over the center.

Edited by dem05 (Fri Aug 25 2006 09:03 PM)


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Clark
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Re: Ernesto [Re: hawg92]
      #70828 - Fri Aug 25 2006 09:03 PM

Apperances can be deceiving. Based off of the warmer cloud top motions in IR imagery, Ernesto's center is still on the far NW edge of the convection, though does appear to be continuing to slide a bit into the convection. With the amount of shear still in the environment -- though starting to lessen -- I don't think rapid intensification is a threat for the immediate future. Intensification in general? Possible.

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Beaumont, TX
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Re: future [Re: HanKFranK]
      #70830 - Fri Aug 25 2006 09:08 PM

All three tracks are possibilities at this point.
I think the third one is the one our local meteorologist is most concerned might happen. I remember reading about the
1865 hurricane. Not good.


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Random Chaos
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Re: future [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #70833 - Fri Aug 25 2006 09:13 PM

Quote:

All three tracks are possibilities at this point.
I think the third one is the one our local meteorologist is most concerned might happen. I remember reading about the
1865 hurricane. Not good.




For those wondering, here's the 1865 hurricane track:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1865/index.html
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at1865.asp


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grimreaper
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Re: future [Re: Random Chaos]
      #70835 - Fri Aug 25 2006 09:44 PM

As far as comparisons of past storm paths, isn't Ernesto taking a very similar path to that of Ivan during the 2004 season?


If I remember correctly, Ivan was a Hurricane much earlier than this storm though.


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Hugh
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Re: future [Re: grimreaper]
      #70836 - Fri Aug 25 2006 09:47 PM

Quote:

As far as comparisons of past storm paths, isn't Ernesto taking a very similar path to that of Ivan during the 2004 season?
If I remember correctly, Ivan was a Hurricane much earlier than this storm though.




Yes, the tracks are very, very similar. Ivan was a Cat 5 near this location.

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Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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sara33
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Re: future [Re: Hugh]
      #70837 - Fri Aug 25 2006 09:55 PM

Will there actually be recon info at the 11:00 update?

Thanks,
Christine

Nope...recon is not in there now...JK

Edited by wxman007 (Fri Aug 25 2006 09:58 PM)


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wereallgonnadie
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Re: future [Re: sara33]
      #70839 - Fri Aug 25 2006 10:05 PM

Hmmm our friend the GFDL is at it again predicting a Cat 5 in the gulf. Interesting that it is coming into line with the other models. I believe this is a hurricane model and not just a general forecast model(ala GFS)?

I is a tropical model but it has had its issues and still does.... I would not put too much into it...

Edited by Storm Cooper (Fri Aug 25 2006 10:15 PM)


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West FL Jess
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Re: future [Re: wereallgonnadie]
      #70841 - Fri Aug 25 2006 10:14 PM

the NOGAPS has Ernesto going towards FL, how long will this prediction last?

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SirCane
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Re: future [Re: wereallgonnadie]
      #70842 - Fri Aug 25 2006 10:17 PM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

Looking at this loop, it kinda looks like Ernesto is kinda shoving that shear ahead of it aside. Doesn't seem like it's going to affect Ernesto that much.

You all are right about the Gulf. I could see anywhere from about Houston to Apalachicola, FL as a final destination. I sure hope it can peak as a CAT 1 or 2 and not become a major.

--------------------
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Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
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TampaRand
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Re: future [Re: Hugh]
      #70843 - Fri Aug 25 2006 10:18 PM

I have a hard time with comparisions for past histories. To be nearly the same track, the exact weather patterns would have to be set up and that is random chaotic-ness at best. It would be a near mathematic anomaly to be similar. My observations have been that there is little to be learned from past storm tracks because of the randomness of patterns that influence these storms.We all need to step back a bit, see what the next 24 hours gives us. The shear does appear to be in retrograde and I do not think that 40-50mph shearing is going to persist, but I HAVE been mucho WRONG before, but I have also been much right, too, as in Rita last year calling the thing 6 days out within 15 minutes and 15 miles of landfall,but that was,in my estimation,a no-brainer. This system is still challenged and I believe that we will just have to see what the next 12-24hours brings.Let'snot get our panties too wadded up before we see what the next data returns are.

One reason I got involved with canes was because of the hype of the local weather guys on TV here in Tampa. If there is one remotely close then we must start calling FEMA immediately and studying evac routes and jamming highways. If nothing else, people like us are keeping these guys a little bit honest. We need to see what REAL data is being returned.

I worked a satellite truck during Wilma last year and keeping Sarasota News Network up and feeding hype to the networks last year and I set them up a new weather set repleat with the software, interface to Master Control, etc., etc, in fact, I did their whole system design and integration in a brand new digital facility. Don't be deceived, in TV weather, especially in FL., cane weather is the ultimate nut for the networks and local stations. So, let's be sensible here and see what we're really looking at in 24 hours and not out-hype ourselves with this. JMO, and it ain't necessarily right

--------------------
Amateur Weather Prognosticator and Cane Junkie.
www.hurricanewx.net


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SirCane
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Re: future [Re: Hugh]
      #70844 - Fri Aug 25 2006 10:18 PM

It's also in a similar spot as Hurricane Dennis was.

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Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
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bravzfan
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Re: future [Re: SirCane]
      #70846 - Fri Aug 25 2006 10:25 PM

Any thoughts concerning Ernesto being shoved back to the east
with an eventual backdoor track through N. Fla/ S. Ga?


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TampaRand
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Re: future [Re: sara33]
      #70850 - Fri Aug 25 2006 10:31 PM

Quote:

Will there actually be recon info at the 11:00 update?

Thanks,
Christine

Nope...recon is not in there now...JK




Recon runs again at 1800Z tomorrow the 26th-1pm EDST for flight 1 and again at 7pm EDST. Flight 2 will be on the 27th at 0600 and 1200 UTC (Zulu) respectively.That's the P.O.D for. now

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dem05
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Re: future [Re: wereallgonnadie]
      #70853 - Fri Aug 25 2006 10:36 PM

Just a quick backtrack to this gentleman's comments on the GFDL... The GFDL has gone intensity buck wild in general in the last run or two...It's too early to believe it. As a tie in, I must cross the line and temporarily move into another basin to make the point.... On the 12Z, the GFDL took Ioke (Central Pacific) to 879 mb and 210 MPH. This breaches the limits of any pressure reading seen on a model from anybody I've ever talked too. Ioke on the 18Z runs does not get a pressure that low, but once again...it shows a hurricane with a massive category 5 windfield. Granted, that storm is a cat 5 now, but even with an eyewall replacement, the storm can't do it for that long. Likewise, I notice the intensity referenced on the 18Z GFDL of Ernesto, but the pressure would have to be lower on this storm to get those kind of wind speeds. 940mb is not that low for a cat 5. Granted, Charley pulled it off as a strong cat 4 at 941 mb, but he was compact like a tornado and that created a very tight pressure gradient that enhanced the windfield. I currently would have to dismiss the intensity forecast of the 18Z GFDL for Ernesto at this point.

Edited by dem05 (Fri Aug 25 2006 10:40 PM)


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Random Chaos
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Re: future [Re: wereallgonnadie]
      #70856 - Fri Aug 25 2006 10:40 PM

Quote:

Hmmm our friend the GFDL is at it again predicting...




Experiencially, the models don't start solidifying track or intensity until a storm has been a medium Tropical Storm for at least 12-24 hours. So I wouldn't expect any "good" model runs to arrive until midday tomorrow (the 06Z run). However, GFDL is nothing to ignore. It's not perfect, and has been far from accurate at times, but it's shown itself to be very good other times.

However, the 18Z run isn't showing Cat 5. It's showing Cat 4 at 800mb, which generally downsamples to Cat 3 at the surface.

--RC


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danielwAdministrator
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Ernesto [Re: bravzfan]
      #70857 - Fri Aug 25 2006 10:44 PM

Based on Dvorak analysis loop through 0115Z. It appears that the shear may be decreasing. The Final ADT postion has been creeping closer and closer to the colder CDO clouds.
JAVA Dvorak loop
At 0115Z the Final position is just inside the western edge of the 'bright white' CDO.

The dark area, near the Center of the CDO, that was mentioned several posts back. Appears to be Convective Towers in the Center of Ernesto.
The Dvorak and JSL Enhancements indicate this area has colder temperatures than the surrounding cloud area. Which is normally associated with higher cloud tops.
An "Eye" area should/ would display a 'warmer region' of cloud top temperatures.
There might be a depressed area of cloud tops near the center. But based on the Current Dvorak intensity, there's very little probability of Ernesto forming an Eye anytime soon.


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TampaRand
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Re: future [Re: dem05]
      #70858 - Fri Aug 25 2006 10:45 PM

I like GFDL a lot, but I think they have had some intialization problems ( I think they all have because of the COC problems earlier) and sometimes that model does get carried away with intensity. Track is pretty awesome, but I think we are looking at two separate algorithms with the two. It went way under for a while with Wilma last year, but nailed the track, as they almost always do. NHC will eventually justify to that track, if the Geophysics guys get it right and they usually do for tracking, or at least reasonably close). I'm going to go play with the FSU super-ensemble for a while, see what it's doing with this.

Edited by TampaRand (Fri Aug 25 2006 10:48 PM)


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dhsfireman
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Re: future [Re: Random Chaos]
      #70859 - Fri Aug 25 2006 10:47 PM

Well if it means anything at all after the year we had last year FEMA is already sitting in stand-by response mode. FEMA is making a better attempt to be ready to go. And the mapping folks at FEMA HQ are looking at Ernest in the gulf west of N.O. possible Cat 2-3.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: future [Re: Random Chaos]
      #70860 - Fri Aug 25 2006 10:50 PM

Quote:

[However, the 18Z run isn't showing Cat 5. It's showing Cat 4 at 800mb, which generally downsamples to Cat 3 at the surface.
--RC




The 18Z 25 Aug 2006, FSU GFDL model that I'm using is indicating a 942mb, 127kt (146mph), at 35meters (115ft above sea level) at 00Z on 31 August. (Tuesday evening)
18Z GFDL Run. Ernesto05L

The question of the hour. Is...Will the trough over N Texas, that's depicted in the above model, pull Ernesto toward Texas, or deflect it onshore into Louisiana.

Edited by danielw (Fri Aug 25 2006 10:53 PM)


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Hugh
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TS Warnings issued [Re: dhsfireman]
      #70861 - Fri Aug 25 2006 10:52 PM

at 11pm AST.. the tropical storm watch has been upgraded to
a Tropical Storm Warning along the southwestern peninsula of Haiti.
A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect from the Haiti-Dominican
Republic border westward to the southwestern tip of Haiti.

Winds up to 45 mph. Long range track looks similar to Rita to me (TX/LA border).

EDIT TO ADD RECON:
An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate Ernesto overnight.



--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Fri Aug 25 2006 10:55 PM)


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SirCane
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Re: TS Warnings issued [Re: Hugh]
      #70862 - Fri Aug 25 2006 10:55 PM

That track is going to flip flop a lot I'm sure. You usually see that a lot with a developing system.

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Ryan
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Re: Ernesto [Re: danielw]
      #70863 - Fri Aug 25 2006 11:00 PM

im thinking Ernesto will some what follow GFDL's path taking it toward the TX/LA border, maybe a little more into LA as a category 3 or 4. I just hope it stays clear of New Orleans and coastal Mississippi. Well one thing is for sure, the tropics are heating up. Also, how coicidental that a year after Katrina there could be a major hurricane in the Gulf, again. I hope this isn't an annual occasion.

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dem05
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Re: TS Warnings issued [Re: Hugh]
      #70864 - Fri Aug 25 2006 11:03 PM

I'm interested in the discussion to see what they say. In the mean time, some folks mentioned recon would not be out until the late morning hours...The public discussion reflects that recon is on it's way for some overnight passes. So I don't know if they've taken off or are getting ready too. Our Recon Guru on this site is DanielW so I hope he might not have gone to bed and can keep us posted (Sorry to put you on the hook DW ) Anyhow, that public advisory has mentioned the south coast of Hispanola more than Jaimaica, in reality, they are pretty darn close, but we may see something headed more toward Haiti over time. Ahh, who know's right?

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SirCane
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Re: Ernesto [Re: Ryan]
      #70865 - Fri Aug 25 2006 11:04 PM

Check out NOGAPS. Puts Ernesto into the Big Bend of FL. That's crazy.

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pcola
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Re: Ernesto [Re: SirCane]
      #70866 - Fri Aug 25 2006 11:07 PM

link to the latest NOGAPS cane? I think mine is old.

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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SirCane
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Re: Ernesto [Re: pcola]
      #70867 - Fri Aug 25 2006 11:09 PM

http://i.flhurricane.com/images/2006/storm5/plot25082006-2209.gif

Check out the light blue line.

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TampaRand
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Re: Ernesto [Re: SirCane]
      #70868 - Fri Aug 25 2006 11:10 PM

Quote:

Check out NOGAPS. Puts Ernesto into the Big Bend of FL. That's crazy.




Not too crazy, I been looking at some massive recurvature for like all day. The receding ridge opens that door right up. But that being siad, I still trust the GFDL on tracking. They just don't handle intensity and shear real well,but tracking has always been a big plus.

Also seeing they are going to send a flight in tonight. Must be some intense emotions down there at NHC right now. All of a sudden there's a different level of interest.

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Edited by TampaRand (Fri Aug 25 2006 11:12 PM)


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pcola
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Re: Ernesto [Re: SirCane]
      #70869 - Fri Aug 25 2006 11:11 PM

Thanks. To all< I can't remember all the models being this far apart after 72 hours, all over the place..

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Ernesto [Re: pcola]
      #70870 - Fri Aug 25 2006 11:15 PM

NOGAPS may be reading a weakness in the ridge or a shortwave moving through.
One of the 18Z models did have a weakness in the 500mb ridge. I wish I could remember which one it was.


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scottsvb
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Re: Ernesto [Re: danielw]
      #70875 - Fri Aug 25 2006 11:43 PM

Nogaps is jumping like all of them...I already have seen the NOGAPS 0z run and it keeps it weak and into the central gulf towards Mobile....

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TampaRand
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Re: Ernesto [Re: danielw]
      #70876 - Fri Aug 25 2006 11:46 PM

Here's a pretty good model I just snagged for the shear figures. Doesn't indicate anything destructive:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc2...;hour=Animation

Actually looks pretty favorable for lessening of shear, although still in the non-conducive range currently, but looks to escape that soon.

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Edited by TampaRand (Fri Aug 25 2006 11:47 PM)


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Genesis
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Re: Ernesto [Re: danielw]
      #70877 - Fri Aug 25 2006 11:48 PM

NOGAPS is seeing a break in the ridge that I was talking about being possible back a couple of pages.

I discount it for a number of reasons, the most important of which being the stability of the pattern in this area over the last week or two. While it is POSSIBLE for that sort of a break to occur, its not terribly likely.

With that said, I do see where it can happen and how. There's a buckle in the jet out west - if that comes eastward sufficiently and stays south far enough, it could fracture the ridge sufficiently to cause this sort of a recurve.

IF that sort of situation is going to set up we should know sometime on Sunday, and Ernesto will pass well east over Cuba of its current progg'd path. The WV Sunday should also show the jet buckle by that point on the playing field.

I don't put much stock in that solution as things sit right now - it still looks to me like the most likely path is somewhere between Corpus and Applach, with a bias towards the western half of that area, although I wouldn't rule out a recurvature until later this weekend.


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TampaRand
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Re: Ernesto [Re: Genesis]
      #70879 - Sat Aug 26 2006 12:03 AM

Yes, that is probably pretty correct. I am leaning strongly around Biloxi and have been struggling with that for a while. I see some recurvature, but not as drastic as NOGAPS makes it but certainly more poleward than the official track.

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dem05
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Conditions right now [Re: Genesis]
      #70880 - Sat Aug 26 2006 12:09 AM

In general, something is going on right noe that I can't put a finger on...The forward progress of thunderstorm activity in the mean thunderstorm complex has recently stopped like it hit a brick wall on IR... Even though the tops are still spreading west on the vapor loop. As best I can tell from upper wind profiles...this shouldn't be from shear. But it has stopped. Likewise, outer banding on the NE side is progressing and banding o the SW side seems to be trying to get better defined. Additionally, looking at the water vapro, the dryer air pocket to the west is going bye, bye something fast and winds are trying set up in a ridge pattern in the upper levels from what I can tell. Maybe Ernesto is holding back a touch, or slowing down, or reforming a bit east. I can't tell...but the infered, shortwave, and water vapor are getting to be an interesting point of short term discussion tonight.

Edited by dem05 (Sat Aug 26 2006 12:10 AM)


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TampaRand
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Re: Conditions right now [Re: dem05]
      #70881 - Sat Aug 26 2006 12:16 AM

Yeah I just saw that and another curious thing is the shearing winds have been drastically increasing to 40-50kts and spread out like a 1000 miles or more-that is a suddenlycurious thing that just came in. I am starting to have some serious doubts about this system's survivability over the next 24 hours as it exists. It looked promising for development for a bit, but now have some serious questions. Here's what I am talklng about:


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

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nc_tropical_wx79
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Re: Conditions right now [Re: TampaRand]
      #70882 - Sat Aug 26 2006 12:20 AM

Hurricane Hunters will fly out at 0600 UTC to Ernesto.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Conditions right now [Re: dem05]
      #70883 - Sat Aug 26 2006 12:20 AM

I noticed the cirrus 'fingers' on the western half of the storm. I agree on the 'running into a wall'. It appears to be an elevated wall...but I haven't been able to determine which level.
It's looking to be mid level or higher though. As the lower clouds out west of the center are maintaining their appearance for the most part.

Looking at the AVN color enhancement. There doesn't appear to be much shear on the Western Half of the main storm.
Cirrus fingers. Central and NW Convective towers going up.
Also notice the increase in the inflow from South America.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn-l.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/sloop-avn.html

Edited by danielw (Sat Aug 26 2006 12:27 AM)


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dem05
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Re: Conditions right now [Re: TampaRand]
      #70884 - Sat Aug 26 2006 12:27 AM

The map you have posted was a +3 hour forecast that was issued some time ago (Should update sometime soon). A thousand miles is a bit broad for what the map is showing...it's more like a few hundred at the most. I think your link came from this UWisc website. Actually, what is more important on that link is the tool bar at the top, click on shear tendancies...It shows they are dropping pretty good up to when the map you posted. I bet they are still dropping a bit. For those that do not have this link, here it is: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html

Thisis another piece to the puzzle to my previous post, I'm not finding any great shear when cloud tops are expanding west...maybe there is a little undercutting going on in the mid levels though. I am uncertain of that, but the mean cloud mass has slowed in it's forward progress for now. Maybe we see a little reformation tonight, but that is highly speculative.


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amonty
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Re: Conditions right now [Re: dem05]
      #70885 - Sat Aug 26 2006 12:32 AM

The LLC is slipping further away from the center again. It's "hop scotching" is what I call it. I did it earlier today and yesterday. We'll see it die down a little until the convection gets a better grip on the LLC. Then it'll blow up again, and inevitably the NHC will adjust the forecast accordingly. It isn't moving in a fluid direction, it's jumping stopping spinning up. Then jumping again.

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TampaRand
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Re: Conditions right now [Re: dem05]
      #70886 - Sat Aug 26 2006 12:33 AM

You are right and it shows a steady decrease, already the latest model has de-intensified a lot-maybe a bit of an anomaly. I'm curious about those cirrus fingers, also. Has to be upper level stuff cruising with the wind. Probably not mid-level-more like floating ice.

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danielwAdministrator
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Satellites [Re: TampaRand]
      #70887 - Sat Aug 26 2006 12:39 AM

Goes East should be in an Eclipse from 0415Z to 0615Z.
Please check the time on your satellite images. As they should stop updating shortly.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SATS/GOES/EAST/FL06-G12-Rout.html

We'll find out a bit more about Ernesto just shortly. Recon is airborne as of about 23 minutes ago.

Edited by danielw (Sat Aug 26 2006 12:40 AM)


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TampaRand
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Re: Satellites [Re: danielw]
      #70888 - Sat Aug 26 2006 12:42 AM

With that wind analysis, though,the upper level barbs are still pretty strong to the east, probably what those cirrus fingers are traveling with. Also, I'm just three miles north of where hte Hunters take off, sometimes we get to see those guys going down to look at the systems, but not tonight.

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Edited by TampaRand (Sat Aug 26 2006 12:46 AM)


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dem05
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Re: Conditions right now [Re: TampaRand]
      #70890 - Sat Aug 26 2006 12:51 AM

You are right with the floting ice in the upper layer...You will get ice and Super cooled water droplets up there when t-storm cloud tops are as cold as they are (-80 and etc.). Daniel brings up an unfortunate point about the satellite eclipse coming up...Just went to the NASA website. Another massive t-storm complex is going up right about in the center of that brick wall I was talking about earlier. Here's the link there, it will by you one or two extra frames and updates more frequently than the floater. If you have never been there, use the interactive buttons for zooming in and animating. Link: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

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dem05
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Re: Satellites [Re: TampaRand]
      #70891 - Sat Aug 26 2006 12:52 AM

Rand, the Hurricane Hunters are also stationed in St. Croix for Carribean systems.

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TampaRand
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Re: Conditions right now [Re: dem05]
      #70892 - Sat Aug 26 2006 12:56 AM

Wow, that was a real big bloom of convection at the end of that loop-Impressive!!! Thanks for the link. I didn'tknow they had a St. Croix stationing also. Nice to know they are close by there.

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Edited by TampaRand (Sat Aug 26 2006 01:00 AM)


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nc_tropical_wx79
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Re: Conditions right now [Re: dem05]
      #70893 - Sat Aug 26 2006 12:59 AM

I asked a Met on another site about your previous post and here's what he had to say about it:

"the next 24 to 36 hours are crucial. If it survives, then we are in trouble. What you are seeing is the Westerly shear. Its running into that wall of shear still. It is surviving currently because it is just East of the worse shear. We will see what happens the next 24 hours."

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HurryCaneForm
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Re: Conditions right now [Re: nc_tropical_wx79]
      #70895 - Sat Aug 26 2006 01:17 AM

I've checked some buoy's(below) and TS Ernesto is heading into some hot sea water and that means trouble if shearing environment is improving.

Near Jamaica the waters are near 82 Degrees celcius and near western cuba it's about 85 Degrees celcius.

I'll be ready for it.... No Doubt about that...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/West_Caribbean.shtml


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EugeneF
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Re: Conditions right now [Re: nc_tropical_wx79]
      #70896 - Sat Aug 26 2006 01:17 AM

@5:05Z 08/26/06

During reconnaissance of tropical system Ernesto a maximum sustained wind speed of 53 mph at 4790 feet, and a maximum wind gust of 54 mph at 4797 feet, were found by the government plane.


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Doombot!
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Re: Conditions right now [Re: HurryCaneForm]
      #70897 - Sat Aug 26 2006 01:25 AM

Quote:

Near Jamaica the waters are near 82 Degrees celcius and near western cuba it's about 85 Degrees celcius.

I'll be ready for it.... No Doubt about that...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/West_Caribbean.shtml




I suspect you mean 82-85 degrees F; 82-85 C would kill all the fish and lead to a Cat 13+ hurricane!


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Ron Basso
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Re: Ernesto [Re: danielw]
      #70898 - Sat Aug 26 2006 01:26 AM

Quote:

NOGAPS may be reading a weakness in the ridge or a shortwave moving through.
One of the 18Z models did have a weakness in the 500mb ridge. I wish I could remember which one it was.




Here is what the NOGAPS and now GFS are responding to - a break in the upper ridge in the central GOM which will allow the storm to move northward. This from the 00Z GFS run. The culprit may be an upper level low/through that migrates from CO through the plains and eventally over KY/TENN in the next 4-5 days. It may have just enough punch to weaken the ridge. The latest GFS run shows the storm stalling off p'cola and drifting south and then east similar to what Elena did back in 1985. Sure hope that doesn't pan out as a large portion of the Gulf Coast will suffer for many days with this storm. I just don't see anything in the next 7-10 days to drive this storm too far northward into the continental US so if this becomes a major hurricane and it stalls & meanders, that would truly be a very bad situation.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_144s.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/index_slp_s_loop.shtml

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Colleen A.
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Model Runs [Re: Genesis]
      #70899 - Sat Aug 26 2006 01:29 AM

I watched the 11pm update and it seems to me that some of the models have recurved a little to the right -- it may have only been 2 & and they didn't say which ones they were but they had changed since 5pm. However, I don't see this in the 11pm update on Skeetobite's model plot...so are these outliers or is it possible that the conditions could indeed recurve it?
Would a weakness in that 500mb ridge allow this to happen?

One thing that I hate the most: that the models project a storm to go west and slowly but surely the track begins to bend back to the east; vice versa. Guess we'll find out soon enough.

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HurryCaneForm
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Re: Conditions right now *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: Doombot!]
      #70900 - Sat Aug 26 2006 01:30 AM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

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Ron Basso
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Re: Model Runs [Re: Colleen A.]
      #70902 - Sat Aug 26 2006 01:42 AM

Colleen, the weakness in the 500 mb ridge is where the storm will travel (path of least resistance). The global models (NOGAPs, GFS) have shifted the farthest to the east - these are not included on Skeeterbites map. Here are the latest 00Z runs. This one doesn't include the latest GFS which I posted earlier. Right now, the area of greatest concern would be the north-central gulf coast - but it will no doubt change as we're 5-6 days out.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

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RJB


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Colleen A.
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Re: Model Runs [Re: Ron Basso]
      #70903 - Sat Aug 26 2006 01:53 AM

Thanks, Ron. That exactly what I saw earlier and what had me concerned. You are right, it will change in the next week ... and I guess that will all depend on that 500mb ridge and whatever other factors come into play. Thanks again.

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hurricaneguy
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Re: Model Runs [Re: Colleen A.]
      #70904 - Sat Aug 26 2006 02:01 AM

We have to keep the hope alive that the shear ahead of Ernesto will stay strong and cripple the system. The Weather Channel still has high hopes that the storm might get ripped apart durning the next 24hrs however TWC has always been very conservative with these storms this year. Only time will tell but this time tomorrow I think we will be waiting on the next storm to form in the Atlantic or be talking about how GOM is in really big trouble.

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hurricaneguy
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Re: Model Runs [Re: hurricaneguy]
      #70905 - Sat Aug 26 2006 02:04 AM

REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...14.7 N...69.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.

Nooooooo! The storm is slowing down, the best case for Ernesto not us. Plus pressure is falling! We need some shear and we need some fast.

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Texas Cane Tracker
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Re: Model Runs [Re: hurricaneguy]
      #70906 - Sat Aug 26 2006 02:07 AM

WTNT35 KNHC 260557
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM Ernesto INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
200 AM AST SAT AUG 26 2006

...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS A BETTER ORGANIZED Ernesto...

Looks like Ernesto is pulling itself together this early morning. If shear to the west relaxes as forecasts, there won't be much in it's way to deter strengthening over the next few day.


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JustMe
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Re: Model Runs [Re: hurricaneguy]
      #70907 - Sat Aug 26 2006 02:22 AM

does this mean that Erensto will survie the shear and amke it into the GOM

--------------------

I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,


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dem05
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Re: Model Runs [Re: JustMe]
      #70908 - Sat Aug 26 2006 02:39 AM

Satellite eclipse is over, 6:15 and 6:31 UTC image is up....KA BOOM!!! Ernesto is getting better organized for sure! It's not up on floater yet, so here's the NASA link again...click the animate radio button, then click right over Ernesto.
Link: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

Edited by dem05 (Sat Aug 26 2006 02:40 AM)


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hurricaneguy
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Re: Model Runs [Re: JustMe]
      #70909 - Sat Aug 26 2006 02:41 AM

Quote:

does this mean that Erensto will survie the shear and amke it into the GOM




It looks like it will but there still some shear to the west of the storm don't start the evacuations just yet. We need to pray for shear.

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Ryan
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Re: Model Runs [Re: hurricaneguy]
      #70910 - Sat Aug 26 2006 03:25 AM

Quote:

Quote:

does this mean that Erensto will survie the shear and amke it into the GOM




It looks like it will but there still some shear to the west of the storm don't start the evacuations just yet. We need to pray for shear.




i think someone said or else i read this somewhere that the shear will be there if the storm continues to move fast, but the storm will slow down near Cuba and miss the shear, unfortunatley. I read this somewhere im goin to try and find the link.

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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

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hurricaneguy
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Re: Model Runs [Re: Ryan]
      #70911 - Sat Aug 26 2006 03:54 AM

During a reconnaissance of tropical system Ernesto a maximum sustained wind speed of 60 mph was found at 4797 feet. Storm is gaining wind speed fast.

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GuppieGrouper
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Re: Model Runs [Re: hurricaneguy]
      #70912 - Sat Aug 26 2006 04:32 AM

Don't get too excited too soon. Storms like these always look healthy at night. Then as the day comes on, they die down. There are exceptions to the rule. The thing that has me worried is that there has not been even one hurricane yet this season, to simmer down the water or to stir the pot. Katrina year had several bloomers before she took center stage. Earnesto seems more put together than all the rest combined this year. Hopefully he will find a deserted island to aggravate.

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cieldumort
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Re: Model Runs [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #70916 - Sat Aug 26 2006 05:26 AM

Morning

Some very key things to take note of this early -

First, from the 5AM update: "ALL GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER Ernesto..." (NOT at all a good thing if you were hoping and expecting Ernesto to get killed dead or at least drastically hampered by shear) ..

Second, a counterpoint - While it is clear to this viewer that Ernesto already has the ULR building on top of him, his western half is starting to feel a little extra pinch from that southwesterly shear - will want to watch this for signs of possible deep erosion as the day continues. However, if such deep erosion does not occur, especially if/while the ridge becomes even more pronounced, I believe we can pretty much kiss the chances of Ernesto kicking the bucket goodbye - and start to count on something else.

Ernesto has now dropped to 999mb - and has developed a significant temperature gradient between his embryonic eye and the surrounding environment. Taken together with the building upper level protection, should the ULL pull far enough out of his way, it is this observer's opinion that we could easily be looking at Hurricane Ernesto by this time Sunday morning. Which takes me to the next point -

NHC is now officially forecasting 100 knots on Day 5 - and - as if to make matters worse, has pulled the cone in, in response to an anticipated significant slowdown of forward speed. Ergo, 100 knots may even be conservative should such a scenario play out and a fully-stacked and healthy Hurricane Ernesto be cooking over that Loop Current Eddy.

There is still plenty of time for the models and NHC to be getting this wrong. The ULL may not play along, and still beat Ernesto down to the ground. The ULL further to the north (NE of Cuba) may decide to help produce a nasty shear zone. Unforeseens may arise. However, by all accounts, the time left for these things to do their thing on Ernesto before he starts calling the shots is running out.

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Tak
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Re: Model Runs [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #70917 - Sat Aug 26 2006 05:29 AM

Yeah, it definitely looks like it went through its diurnal convective max cycle.
Those 850 mb flight level winds typically translate to 80% of that at the surface. And the 5 am update keeps it at 40 kts - 46 mph or 80% of those 60 mph flight level winds.


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danielwAdministrator
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Satellite and Center [Re: Tak]
      #70918 - Sat Aug 26 2006 05:49 AM

By coincidence the GHCC lat/ long are nearly over the RECON Center of Ernesto.
You can see how the shear is skewing the storm toward the East.



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Rich B
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Pressure [Re: danielw]
      #70919 - Sat Aug 26 2006 06:02 AM

Latest vortex takes pressure down to 997mb, a 2mb drop in just a few hours. Looks like Ernesto is getting ready to go, especially with an expected improvement in upper-level conditions.

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cieldumort
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Re: Pressure [Re: Rich B]
      #70920 - Sat Aug 26 2006 06:13 AM

I would conclude the same without hesitation were it not for the "V" appearance of the convection at this hour - indicative of the shear, the V notch is getting so pronounced right now that this looks more like what one would want to see of a healthy supercellular mesoscale convective system in the upper midwest, than of an about-to-be rapidly intensifying tropical cyclone. I guess from our standpoint here, it's "Go shear! Go!!!"

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swimaway19
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Re: Pressure [Re: cieldumort]
      #70921 - Sat Aug 26 2006 06:39 AM

I'm not sure if I'm looking at it right, but does the GFS refuse to develop Ernesto at all?

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craigm
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Re: Pressure [Re: swimaway19]
      #70922 - Sat Aug 26 2006 07:03 AM

Good Morning everyone! here is a nice overlay of the 00Z run of the GFDLwith SST's,dates and forecast pressures.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfdl/ernesto05l/fcst/archive/06082600/1.html#track

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Storm Hunter
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Re: Pressure [Re: craigm]
      #70923 - Sat Aug 26 2006 07:39 AM

hmm... first few vis... kinda interesting.... i don't see the center..or atleast at this point.... vis shot thinking it may be trying to tuck back under the center of convection....

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ElizabethH
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Re: Pressure [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #70924 - Sat Aug 26 2006 07:46 AM

It's a definite possiblity that we could see the convection getting around what was an almost completely exposed center of circulation just 18 hours ago. Also, the pressure continues to drop 997mb (already posted). Ernesto has picked up speed again this morning to 14 kts/15 mph, but I don't think forward speed is really going to be much of a factor with this guy. He still have some shear to get through, and I think Ernesto will make it through "unfavorable" conditions.

The NHC track does have the center coming extremely close to Jamaica, but at the same time becoming a Cat 1.. If land doesn't weaken it, not sure what will!

Looks like all eyes along the Gulf Coast need to monitor this one closely... Hurry up and wait!


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Storm Cooper
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Re: Pressure [Re: ElizabethH]
      #70925 - Sat Aug 26 2006 07:59 AM

Although this is something the entire gulf coast needs to watch, this time yesterday I was not real concerned about my area being impacted but this morning some rather slight changes in modeling has my attention. It is not going to ruin my weekend but will be a part of it.

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Hugh
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Re: Pressure [Re: ElizabethH]
      #70926 - Sat Aug 26 2006 08:01 AM

It's the end of the 1st quarter... current score: Ernesto 1, Shear 0, with the real potential loser being the central or east-central Gulf Coast... again.

The ULL to the west appears to be moving out on the JSL loop. Whether Ernesto actually crosses Jamaica or goes just to the south or north of it is not significant in the long term (except of course to people on the island). Any loss of strength that Ernesto might encounter would likely be regained in very short order. It's getting a comma-like look, and pressures are dropping steadily. Watch, wait, and root for shear.

It's curious, though... yesterday the NHC was decidedly un-bullish on what would become Ernesto. Now the official forecast puts the Louisiana coast under the gun for another major hurricane just days after the anniversary of Katrina. It could all change again today, for the better or worse.

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ElizabethH
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Re: Pressure [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #70927 - Sat Aug 26 2006 08:03 AM

Yeah something to consider is this storm looks to impact Labor Day weekend somewhere along the coast.. This isn't good news since many tourists come to the Gulf coast and spend their money... Areas all over FL , AL, MS, and LA will be getting lots of cancellations here in the next few days if this track holds...

*I know I know, off topic*

Like Cooper said, yesterday wasn't concerned, today he is. Many people will pay a little more attention to Ernesto as time rolls on... It's a tropical cyclone, things can change within a days time...


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Pressure [Re: Hugh]
      #70928 - Sat Aug 26 2006 08:16 AM

looks like recon want be there til lunch time today... after that then every six hours til it gets close to US coast. then its every three hours.. Think the research flights from NOAA will start tommorrow....will know around 11am when recon plan of day is updated....NOAA flights will greatly help the models, i think in the short term.... Then only thing i see possible weaking it right now is the ULL to the west.. but its moving away and Ernesto i think will slow down in forward speed in the next 24-48hrs... which should allow for him to get stronger... guess its now time to start looking at the loop current and its forecast.... NOWS A GOOD TIME TO CHECK TO MAKE SURE YOUR SUPPLY KIT, ETC. is ready just incase Ernesto makes a visit to the Gulf Coast.... The one thing that really sucks... GOM oil rigs are going to take another hit...and we all know what that means.... Looks like the SE labor day weekend is going to keep people from making too much of a travel plan. Til lunch time or unless there's a ship nearby, we want know whats going on with the system, will have to go by sats.

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madmumbler
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Re: Pressure [Re: ElizabethH]
      #70929 - Sat Aug 26 2006 08:17 AM

Quote:

Yeah something to consider is this storm looks to impact Labor Day weekend somewhere along the coast.. This isn't good news since many tourists come to the Gulf coast and spend their money... Areas all over FL , AL, MS, and LA will be getting lots of cancellations here in the next few days if this track holds...

*I know I know, off topic*

Like Cooper said, yesterday wasn't concerned, today he is. Many people will pay a little more attention to Ernesto as time rolls on... It's a tropical cyclone, things can change within a days time...




I'm in SWFL, and i'm not panicking, just concerned and watching and waiting.

We're still so gun-shy from Charley's curve that until a storm is far enough west before it starts curving to the north that we have our boards waiting in the wings to go up. *LOL*

I feel a little better for us (here in SWFL) this morning after seeing the 8am track, but I'm still not relaxing until it's well past Cuba.

If I lived somewhere in that current cone of anxiety, I would be heading to the store this weekend ot beat the rush however. Now's the time to get supplies and wood, not at the last minute when a watch/warning is declared. If you don't need it, at least you've got it.

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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dizzy9479
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Re: Pressure [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #70930 - Sat Aug 26 2006 08:22 AM

Take a look at this ship report.............52.1 knots? How accurate do these ship reports tend to be?

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.p...ot=A&time=3


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GuppieGrouper
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Re: Pressure [Re: madmumbler]
      #70931 - Sat Aug 26 2006 08:31 AM

ALthough Tampa Bay usually does not end up in the cone of insanity, I am already ready. I have three bags of Cat littler in my car trunk, and I plan to get gasoline this week before the prices sky=rocket next week. I will have to drive conservatively in order to maintain a 3/4 tank so that I can go most any place in Florida without having to find gasoline. The shelves have been stocked and I found out what my family likes out of the first set of supplies I bought, *they can not refrain from trying them out each season, so I learned to bring home a little and then if they like it, go buy more and hide it.*
So I really need to buy one more small animal carrier to accomodate the six cats who are placed in the carriers when our County is under hurricane warning within 3-4 hours. It makes life more comforting for them and me. So praying that the ULL gets it and brings on a summer shower only. This is the last post I will make on this subject so that the experts can bring us the most important information.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.

Edited by GuppieGrouper (Sat Aug 26 2006 08:36 AM)


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Steve H1
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Re: Pressure [Re: dizzy9479]
      #70932 - Sat Aug 26 2006 08:32 AM

06z GFDL is on the bottom of the main page now and shows Ernesto nearing the FLorida panhandle east of Pensacola at about 140 mph.

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SebastianLou
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Re: Pressure [Re: madmumbler]
      #70935 - Sat Aug 26 2006 08:39 AM

Not sure what to make of my observation; Since at least 30 hours ago, the official location of the storm has been at the northern most model prediction point for that update, or just north of all the animated model plots, each and every time. Is it fair to extrapolate this to the future path, and stick to the models that favor a right bias to the storm path? Something like, the storm crossing Cuba not at the west tip, but more east, and bending towards Florida. Well, just an observation, and question. Any way you cut it, looks like this storm will bring problems to too many folks, just a matter of who, and that SU-KS!

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pcola
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Re: Pressure [Re: SebastianLou]
      #70937 - Sat Aug 26 2006 08:48 AM

It seems most of the models agree that any break in the ridging to the north will not have a big effect until Ernesto gets to 25N...after that it will just depens on how much of a wekness in the ridge there is..we have seen storms simply go on a due north (Katrina) or north then north east (Ivan) or northeast....it will be interseting to see what track adjustments are made at the next advisory...wild swings happen 5 days out..Ivan models started in the Big Bend..ended up near Biloxi..and the storm came 100 miles east...alot of people will be watching..good thing is that all over the TV is Katrina Anniversary coverage so Ernesto will be getting extra-special airtime..not a bad thing to help people prepare...

Sorry about typos..not enough coffee

Edited by pcola (Sat Aug 26 2006 08:50 AM)


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Cat 5orBust
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #70938 - Sat Aug 26 2006 08:50 AM

i also thought i was noticing that the storm was on the northern edge of the plots that were being used in the middle of the forecast cone. unless it bends a little more back to the west i think that this might end up crossing cuba a bit further east and may ultimately have more of an impact on the south florida area. i remember vividly last year with Wilma tha the models were in agreement bringing it through the Yucatan and then came the shift where all the models agreed on it being picked up and then they had it turning back east to south florida. not saying that this will be a south florida storm, but i certainly would not be surprised to see a bit more of a shift to the east as we progress, and that wouldn't be a bad thing necessarily because i certainly would not want to see a monster get out into the gulf and threaten that coastline again.

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Geoff
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean [Re: Cat 5orBust]
      #70940 - Sat Aug 26 2006 09:06 AM

The last few frames of the floater loops appear to show better outflow developing.

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SirCane
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #70941 - Sat Aug 26 2006 09:14 AM

I don't like these model runs this morning at all. This week is looking like it's going to be nuts.

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Local
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean [Re: SirCane]
      #70942 - Sat Aug 26 2006 09:20 AM

aka: Beach

Like I said yesterday morning.
It wouldn't suprise me if Ernesto passes Jamacia to the North
cutting through Central or Eastern Cuba.


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Wxwatcher2
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean [Re: Local]
      #70946 - Sat Aug 26 2006 09:42 AM

Judging from the Satellite pictures only, I agree that Ernesto is staying on the Northern edge of the forecast track. I'm not sure what this means a few days out but I would make a future track noticably more to the East if a weakening in the ridge should occur.

Glad to see everyone onboard and monitoring this one. Let's see where we are Monday morning. I think we'll know a lot more by then.


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SirCane
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean [Re: nl]
      #70949 - Sat Aug 26 2006 10:13 AM

Go Auburn! I'm just hoping Ernesto stays a smaller storm no matter how strong it gets. I don't want to see another Katrina or Ivan that hurts a large area. Dennis was a small Hurricane so the damage was limited to a smaller area. That would be better.

--------------------
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RevUp
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #70950 - Sat Aug 26 2006 10:16 AM

Yesterday I suspected that #5 (Ernesto) would be a lot worse off - it's held together remarkably well. That being said, any speculation about the Gulf is just that. Jamaica is under the gun once again and west Cuba after that. As exhibited in the changes since yesterday, there is still a lot of variability in the model output once this thing reaches the Gulf (could even stall in the central Gulf for a couple days!). It's going to be one wild ride over the next week.

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nc_tropical_wx79
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean [Re: RevUp]
      #70951 - Sat Aug 26 2006 10:22 AM

from looking at the short wave loop it would almost appear that the COC has reformed further E in the heart of the CDO
This is possible in response to the shear impinging the W flank
Anyone have a view on this ??

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TampaRand
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms in the East Caribbean [Re: RevUp]
      #70952 - Sat Aug 26 2006 10:22 AM

From my first blog this morning:

Ernesto has survived and strengthened during the night. The system faced heavy shearing winds and those winds are now in retrograde from an Upper Level Low to the west, which is now moving west. The last model runs are indicating a CAT 3-4 event with eventual landfall somewhere around Panama City FL to Pensacola. The NHC official track remains substantially unchanged from last night. The track usually exhibits errors around 220nm per day, so I would not get to interested in the "where" at this point. The trending for recurvature is something I commented on a while back, seeing a lessening of a ridge of High Pressure that will move ENE late in the forecast. I still believe that to be true and the models are responding to that also. I was seeing this trend looking at some of the 192 hour models and see no reason to change that right now. The convection in the storm appears to be wrapping around the LLC and central pressure is dropping now to 997 Mb, but there is still a moderate level of shear to the west of the system preventing it from a full wrapup of convection. When that happens the central core of the storm will develop rapidly. Yesterday at this time the Center of Low Pressure was outrunning the convection due to the shear, but that is lots less pronounced today. Make no mistake, the northern Gulf Coast is at great risk, especially the panhandle of FL to New Iberia, LA. There are still some challenges this storm faces like a possible move across the Cuban mountains and other land interactions, but when it enters the Gulf, the only thing it will face is extremely warm water to throw gas on the fire. Needless to say, TODAY is no better day to make early preparations if you believe yourself to be at risk. There is time to prepare. Stay aware and prepare!

--------------------
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madmumbler
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Re: Pressure [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #70953 - Sat Aug 26 2006 10:26 AM

Quote:

ALthough Tampa Bay usually does not end up in the cone of insanity, I am already ready. I have three bags of Cat littler in my car trunk, and I plan to get gasoline this week before the prices sky=rocket next week. I will have to drive conservatively in order to maintain a 3/4 tank so that I can go most any place in Florida without having to find gasoline. The shelves have been stocked and I found out what my family likes out of the first set of supplies I bought, *they can not refrain from trying them out each season, so I learned to bring home a little and then if they like it, go buy more and hide it.*
So I really need to buy one more small animal carrier to accomodate the six cats who are placed in the carriers when our County is under hurricane warning within 3-4 hours. It makes life more comforting for them and me. So praying that the ULL gets it and brings on a summer shower only. This is the last post I will make on this subject so that the experts can bring us the most important information.




Cone of insanity -- hand't heard that one, but I like it!

It's still too soon to tell how this will turn. So far, the path hasn't been creeping closer to FL, but that can obviously change. I'm hoping it's going to stay west of the west coast, which isn't good news for everyone else, but as you said would just bring us gusty wind and rain, nothing major. It could however, depending on how close to the coast it comes, bring us higher than normal tides, possibly tornados.

Again, it's still too soon to tell.

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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madmumbler
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Re: Pressure [Re: SebastianLou]
      #70954 - Sat Aug 26 2006 10:30 AM

Quote:

Not sure what to make of my observation; Since at least 30 hours ago, the official location of the storm has been at the northern most model prediction point for that update, or just north of all the animated model plots, each and every time. Is it fair to extrapolate this to the future path, and stick to the models that favor a right bias to the storm path? Something like, the storm crossing Cuba not at the west tip, but more east, and bending towards Florida. Well, just an observation, and question. Any way you cut it, looks like this storm will bring problems to too many folks, just a matter of who, and that SU-KS!




It will bounce back and forth for a while. Until it gets to around Cuba, the path is going to be hard to tell. Charley taught us that. Even then if it's close to FL, it could be hard to tell.

The larger it gets, the easier it will be to tell where it's going at that point, because the smaller storms get buffeted around more easily, or sucked up harbors (aka Charley *LOL*). The bad thing is, it would be a larger storm.

I have a feeling from what I'm seeing that it may get to be a larger storm.unless the shear can hold out long enough to keep knocking it back. Which I don't think is going to happen.

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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TampaRand
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Re: Pressure [Re: madmumbler]
      #70955 - Sat Aug 26 2006 10:40 AM

Yes, the shear is defintely receding from the ULL movement west. This storm is starting to really get it's act together. I was just looking at the shortwave imagery and water vapor. It's actually a pretty good looking storm right now and I don't see much to impede it's progress now. It appears to be wrapping up it's convection and has decent outflow, except in the SW quad, which appears to be under some very moderate shear-nothing like yesterday.

--------------------
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madmumbler
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Re: Pressure [Re: TampaRand]
      #70956 - Sat Aug 26 2006 10:44 AM

I was just running through all the GOES floater views, and is it me or does it look like it's pushing a little northward? I'm not sure where the COC is, but that sw-ne flow in front of it, is it bouncing it further north?

I do realize that they will bobble. I'm NOT panicking. *LOL* What I'm trying to determine is this just normal "squishing" of the storm and it's not effecting the track, or is it a wobble, or is it a movement trend starting, OR am I just reading the satellite views incorrectly?

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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Hugh
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Re: Pressure [Re: TampaRand]
      #70957 - Sat Aug 26 2006 10:44 AM

11am Advisory is out... What I consider a significant change in the forecast track in Day 4/5.... whereas at 5am the track was headed west of New Orleans toward Grand Isle (to my eye, anyway), the new track has a decidely Katrina-like look to it... with the bullseye on New Orleans.

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Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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EugeneF
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Re: Pressure [Re: TampaRand]
      #70958 - Sat Aug 26 2006 10:45 AM

New 11am EDT NHC advisory up 20 minutes early...

Note that this information can be found on the Main Page...

Edited by Storm Cooper (Sat Aug 26 2006 10:48 AM)


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zacros
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East Coast Swirl [Re: madmumbler]
      #70959 - Sat Aug 26 2006 10:45 AM

Interesting low pressure forming off of the SC/GA coast today. Weather in Charleston has been rainy for the past two days, not it looks like a low is forming. May not amount to much, but the water in the area of the low is in the upper 80s. Looks like the low is forming along the frontal boundary that extends out toward Bermuda. Swirl is clearly evident on the Long Range Rader and on the visible satellite loop. Will anything develop out of this?

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TampaRand
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Re: Pressure [Re: Hugh]
      #70960 - Sat Aug 26 2006 10:53 AM

Not only that, but there is an anticyclonic ridge beginning to form above Ernesto This does not bode well for any lessening of this system. It's looking very favorable for a major cane at this point.

The storm off SC is a feature I have been keeping an eye on, but not excited yet. Also Africa shot off another pretty good looking wave in the last 12 hours, but that is way early to get excited about.

--------------------
Amateur Weather Prognosticator and Cane Junkie.
www.hurricanewx.net

Edited by TampaRand (Sat Aug 26 2006 10:56 AM)


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pcola
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Re: East Coast Swirl [Re: zacros]
      #70961 - Sat Aug 26 2006 10:53 AM

NHC is buying into the global models..and moving the track 5 days out farther east...looking more and more like the central and eastern gulf will be under the gun..Dr Lyons made this observation this morning also..hope things chank..i would like to get Clarks take on the globals and the weakness in the ridge

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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TampaRand
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Re: East Coast Swirl [Re: pcola]
      #70963 - Sat Aug 26 2006 10:59 AM

Yep, with good reason. I think there's some early convergence that's very good,but NOGAPS started trending that early and GFDL responded also. Look at that ridge about 96 -120 hours and you'll see what I've been saying and the models have been trending.

--------------------
Amateur Weather Prognosticator and Cane Junkie.
www.hurricanewx.net


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Lysis
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Re: East Coast Swirl [Re: TampaRand]
      #70967 - Sat Aug 26 2006 11:09 AM

The variability here is already stifling... as usual!

Forgive my ingnorance, but a quick question: How does intensity (that is, intensity of the cyclone, not the ridge) translate into the eventual track of Ernesto as it begins to recurve? Just in terms of simple interaction, a stronger storm bodes worse for those in the east?..west?

Thanks.

Edited by Lysis (Sat Aug 26 2006 11:11 AM)


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Kevin
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Re: East Coast Swirl [Re: Lysis]
      #70970 - Sat Aug 26 2006 11:15 AM

Quote:

The variability here is already stifling... as usual!

Forgive my ingnorance, but a quick question: How does intensity (that is, intensity of the cyclone, not the ridge) translate into the eventual track of Ernesto as it begins to recurve? A stronger storm bodes worse for those in the east?

Thanks.




On a very basic level, stronger storms tend to "feel" more of what is going on in the upper-levels of the atmosphere. So, stronger storms (tropical cyclones) are more susceptible to changes in steering patterns. Changes in the upper-levels tend to be more pronounced for strong hurricanes than for week ones. If Ernesto was forecast to remain a weak tropical storm thorugh the forecast, it is unlikely that any official forecast would show it making a sharp curve.

Clark could offer you a more precise, technical description.


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Kevin
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Re: East Coast Swirl [Re: pcola]
      #70971 - Sat Aug 26 2006 11:17 AM

Quote:

NHC is buying into the global models..and moving the track 5 days out farther east...looking more and more like the central and eastern gulf will be under the gun..Dr Lyons made this observation this morning also..hope things chank..i would like to get Clarks take on the globals and the weakness in the ridge




The NHC is still a good deal left of the global consensus. If the agreement between the global models continues, then NHC will need to shift the track even more the right.


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Mike Gaynor
Unregistered




Re: Ernesto [Re: Lysis]
      #70973 - Sat Aug 26 2006 11:20 AM

Deleted by Moderator

Edited by Storm Cooper (Sat Aug 26 2006 12:02 PM)


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GuppieGrouper
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Re: Ernesto [Re: Mike Gaynor]
      #70974 - Sat Aug 26 2006 11:21 AM

For blob watchers to put things into perspective:

http://www.baynews9.com/Doppler9000.html

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Hugh
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Re: Ernesto [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #70975 - Sat Aug 26 2006 11:30 AM

Looking at the current AVN loop... Ernesto is still encountering alot of shear it seems. What was earlier a nice round BLOB looks a bit like a fried egg on its side now. Given the obstacles that this storm has already overcome, it will probably shove it out of the way in a few hours, but it's interesting to watch.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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SirCane
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Re: Ernesto [Re: Mike Gaynor]
      #70976 - Sat Aug 26 2006 11:42 AM

I don't like the way the models keep shifting to the East. It's not too cool.

--------------------
Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
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Ron Basso
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Re: East Coast Swirl [Re: Kevin]
      #70977 - Sat Aug 26 2006 11:42 AM

I copied my post from another forum. What the GFS, GFDL, & NOGAPS models are keying on is obviously a weakness in the upper ridge. I have included a series of model time slice plots to show the evolving weakness forecasted by the 06Z GFS. What's a little disturbing is that once the break in the ridge develops, the eastern portion shows a SW-NE orientation which is allowing the storm to start recurving (albeit slightly) to the N-NE. By Friday night, the ridge over FL completely collapses with the portion over TX remaining intact. If this verifies, I think Texans could breathe a little easier - However, I'm more concerned now for the FL panhandle and NE GOM in general then yesterday. Again, this is what is forecast today - everyone is correct in that these conditions can change in 4-5 days time.

Thursday night 8 PM

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_500_138s.gif

Friday morning 8 AM

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_500_150s.gif

Friday night 8 PM

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_500_162s.gif

--------------------
RJB


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Colleen A.
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Re: Pressure [Re: Hugh]
      #70978 - Sat Aug 26 2006 11:48 AM

Keep in mind that the cone is there to encourage people not to follow the black line. If one looks at the cone, they will see that there is a wide area being covered right now, including Texas, MS, AL and FL. It is entirely too early to speculate that New Orleans is in the bullseye right now. This track can and will change as factors such as shear, forward speed, ridges breaking down, etc. set in.
As far as I can tell, the cone has been shifting east -- albeit very subtly -- over the last 2 days. EVERYONE from Texas to Florida needs to watch this storm....and if residents living along the Gulf Coast have not gotten their supplies together, now would be a good time to do so.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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HanKFranK
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ivan/dennis wannabe? [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #70979 - Sat Aug 26 2006 11:50 AM

stuff from yesterday... looks like the eastern/central gulf options are becoming more favored by the models and officially by the NHC. the uncertainties remain in how much the ridge decays to let the storm up (not much run to run consistency on that point), and a new one today: why is intensity guidance weakening the storm over the central gulf? i think that may be a model fluke with the upper ridging (i.e., the storm will be generating a good bit) and exactly where the upper low to the west ends up after tailing into the western gulf.
the only good thing i can see in the long range is that while Ernesto may become quite powerful as it crosses the high heat region in the central gulf, there's a lot of zonal shear over the u.s. and it extends down very close to the coast. again, it may or may not be a fluke, but the GFS pushing the ridging away and developing southwesterly shear over the region the storm would be in could signify another instance (like with Katrina, Ivan, etc..) where shear helps spin down an intense hurricane to where the winds aren't strong enough to totally demolish structures.. but that doesn't do much for surge potential.
with more of the models showing a weakness over the southeast i'm more comfortable degrading the threat to areas further west, i.e. texas and the western half of louisiana. still don't see any reason it would curve sharply enough to impact peninsular florida. i can't really say anything makes sense besides the area shown in the NHC cone. noticed their late trend in the last advisory is to turn the storm more sharply near the end of the run.. and they usually drag the forecast track over gradually, which implies they might take it a little further later today (unless a bunch of models flip back further west).
i'll set my first thrat swath from grand isle to cedar key. the region of emphasis is the florida panhandle. likely threat range is a category 2-3 hurricane at landfall. time centered during the afternoon on friday, september 1.
elsewhere...
that little low on the decaying front off georgia is still there today. in a shear zone and not serving as much of a convective focal point right now... upper ridging should dominate the area by tomorrow, so if it keeps popping convection, might merit more interest. probably won't move much... out to sea is most likely in the long run.
debby is now forecast to die before being absorbed by a front. might make a little resurgence, but never got near as strong as i thought it would.
low from a washed out tropical wave moving off africa is broad but well defined. going to move through a fairly dry area with marginal SSTs.. not likely to do much developing for the next couple days. if it can maintain definition further west, could enter the mix as something down the road. tis the season.
another decent wave will come off sunday or monday.
HF 1550z26august


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Doughboy
Unregistered




Re: Pressure [Re: Colleen A.]
      #70980 - Sat Aug 26 2006 11:50 AM

would this mean the East Coast of Florida to?? Just in case if it does a Charley? Should I prepare?

prolly not. there isn't a huge trough digging down to the northern gulf in any of the models, like there was with Charley. keep an eye on it, in case something changes. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Sat Aug 26 2006 11:58 AM)


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amazon
Registered User


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Re: Ernesto [Re: SirCane]
      #70981 - Sat Aug 26 2006 11:54 AM

Quote:

I don't like the way the models keep shifting to the East. It's not too cool.




My best guess is that the 6-9 month ridge over the gulf stays intact and the furthest north this system may head is Corpus Christi.. most likely Brownsville south.
However if it were to move more north east of Houston, as an aside could we finally get a more prolonged colder winter(a pause in this whole global warming excitement) if a pattern of early season troughs were strong enough to break the ridge down???
Anyhow - should be interesting to see if Ernesto can overcome the inhibiting factors that have not allowed a hurricane much less a strong hurricane to develope this year...


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Cash
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Re: Ernesto [Re: Mike Gaynor]
      #70984 - Sat Aug 26 2006 12:00 PM

On behalf of the citizens of New Orleans, I'd like to express my thoughts on the unregistered Mr. Gaynor's post at the bottom of page 8, but decorum and civility standards on this forum prevent me from adequately and satisfactorily doing so.

Suffice it to say I think that knuckleheaded drive-by commentary sucks eggs. It's simplistic, inflammatory, and betrays an obvious lack of depth of consideration. Never mind the stupidity of a casual dismissal of a major American city, its residents, and its vital port.

And beyond that, model guidance and forecasting skill at days 4 and beyond are such that a very large swath of the gulf coast is vulnerable and the notion that this thing is in any way certain to hit New Orleans (or any other area) is absurd.

That said, given that on the anniversary of the day my home flooded with 11.5 feet of Lake Pontchartrain we're going to have a hurricane entering the gulf, and given that by a day after that we'll be 48 hours from landfall with likely at least a small chance of south Louisiana impact, we're all likely to be evacuating again come Wednesday/Thursday of this coming week. It's a joy to be a New Orleanian, I tell you.

Cash


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madmumbler
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Re: Pressure [Re: Colleen A.]
      #70986 - Sat Aug 26 2006 12:02 PM

Quote:

Keep in mind that the cone is there to encourage people not to follow the black line. If one looks at the cone, they will see that there is a wide area being covered right now, including Texas, MS, AL and FL. It is entirely too early to speculate that New Orleans is in the bullseye right now. This track can and will change as factors such as shear, forward speed, ridges breaking down, etc. set in.
As far as I can tell, the cone has been shifting east -- albeit very subtly -- over the last 2 days. EVERYONE from Texas to Florida needs to watch this storm....and if residents living along the Gulf Coast have not gotten their supplies together, now would be a good time to do so.




I have a feeling it will keep shifting east. I don't think it's going to make a west coast hit, but I have a strong feeling from the trends we're looking at that we'll be seeing the track focus in somewhere on the Panhandle.

I just went out and started my generator to make sure it's working. *LOL*

Just in case.

New Thread Started...

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.

Edited by Storm Cooper (Sat Aug 26 2006 12:03 PM)


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WeatherNut
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Re: Ernesto [Re: Hugh]
      #70987 - Sat Aug 26 2006 12:03 PM

found this interesting link that updates the shear flow and speed every 3 hours. I've not had time to really figure out how to read it completely...but it looks like the shear is less over Ernesto now...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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Clark
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Re: Ernesto [Re: WeatherNut]
      #70990 - Sat Aug 26 2006 12:07 PM

New thread up on the main page.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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