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Archives 2000s >> 2003 Storm Forum

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Claudette - Where will she go?
      #7077 - Tue Jul 08 2003 09:51 PM

Tropical Storm Claudette is now gaining strength in the central Caribbean Sea and moving to the west northwest. Forward speed has slowed to about 20kts. I think that the circulation finally closed off at 14Z this morning and that the system attained TS strength an hour later at 15Z. I also can believe that the recon indeed had trouble finding a circulation center given that the forward speed of the system was at least 25kts at the time. Since 21Z the center has been fairly easy to locate on satellite imagery. At 00Z I placed the center at 15.3N 72.4W and believe that the sustained wind had increased to 50kts with a central pressure around 1004mb (recon has since reported an estimated pressure of 1003mb at 2340Z). Intensification was rapid this afternoon and there was even a hint of a small CDO on the last visible satellite images.

Where will Claudette go? Well, I don't care too much for the model solutions (what else is new), but here's why:
The upper level low that has been moving in tandem with Claudette seems to have slowed on its westward journey. In fact, yesterday evening it was to the west of the wave however tonight it is to the west northwest (almost northwest) of the cyclone. The evidence of the slowdown can be seen on the west side of Claudette with some blocking shear - but this would be expected. Outflow to the west is somewhat restricted, but outflow to the northwest through northeast is impressive. The circulation around the upper low should have some impact on the future track of Claudette and actually help to nudge the tropical storm into a more northwesterly track. That strong outflow bothers me a bit too - it tells me that the strong blocking ridge to the north of Claudette may not be as strong as previously advertised and thus provide yet another factor for a more northwesterly track. Right now I'm just not convinced that the center of Claudette will ever reach the Yucatan - but she certainly seems destined for the Gulf of Mexico. A slowdown in forward speed seems likely, and so does eventual hurricane status.

For those that plot the formative history of these things, here are my past position estimates, but note that they do not always coincide with NHC Advisory information:
05/00Z 9.8N 41.0W 20G30kts 1010mb
05/06Z 9.9N 42.6W 20G30 1010
05/12Z 10.0N 44.2W 20G30 1010
05/18Z 10.1N 45.8W 20G30 1009
06/00Z 10.2N 47.3W 20G30 1009
06/06Z 10.3N 48.8W 25G35 1009
06/12Z 10.6N 50.2W 25G35 1009
06/18Z 10.8N 52.0W 25G35 1009
07/00Z 10.9N 53.6W 30G40 1008
07/06Z 11.0N 55.5W 30G40 1008
07/12Z 12.0N 57.5W 30G40 1009
07/18Z 12.8N 60.0W 30G40 1009
08/00Z 13.0N 63.0W 30G40 1009
08/06Z 13.5N 65.0W 30G40 1009
08/12Z 14.0N 67.0W 30G40 1009
08/15Z 14.5N 68.5W 35G45 1008
08/18Z 14.8N 70.0W 40G50 1007
08/21Z 15.0N 71.3W 45G55 1006
09/00Z 15.3N 72.4W 50G65 1004

Thats it for tonight - I'll try to throw in my two cents worth again late tomorrow evening.
Cheers,
ED


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Claudette - Where will she go?
      #7307 - Thu Jul 10 2003 08:14 PM

Decided to stick with this thread for an update. Last night I began to waiver on my earlier thoughts that Claudette would not strike the Yucatan, but knowing that your first forecast is usually your best forecast, I've admonished myself throughout the day for the weak moment of indecision I believe that Claudette will pass through the Yucatan Channel without the center touching land...and I use the term 'center' carefully. Last night I think that I may have used the term 'eye' when I meant to say 'center' and I was properly corrected for that mistake as well (too many long hours). I guess that the old adage still is true, i.e., "its not an eye until you can see the sky".

At 10/23Z I placed the exposed center at 19.1N 84.6W and I'd be surprised if the winds were any stronger than 50kts (although they were certainly stronger than that earlier today). I'm sure that the central pressure has increased considerably as well, perhaps up to 1006mb, but a recon will be giving us an update on that shortly. Claudette was moving to the northwest at about 14mph as stated in the latest Public Advisory from NHC.

I feel that Claudette will regenerate again and by the time that she gets to somewhere between 24N and 25N she'll be a hurricane...moving north...slowly.

Many of you have shared some of your favorite links on the Main Page, and great links they are. Here is one that I like to use:

http://virga.sfsu.edu/gif/jetstream_h24_00.gif

http://virga.sfsu.edu/gif/jetstream_h48_00.gif

Cheers,
ED


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