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danielwAdministrator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Hurricane Ernesto - Florida on Notice
      #71281 - Sun Aug 27 2006 05:39 AM

12:45 PM EDT Sunday Update
Several of our resident meteorologists have chimed in with their thoughts on Ernesto this early afternoon...

Rich B: at this post
HF: at this post
Clark: at this link or accessible below this main article here on the front page

More throughout the day as events warrant.

10:50 AM EDT Sunday Update
The forecast track remains much the same as earlier but further east, giving more risk to the Keys.

Again, it vital not to concentrate exactly on the point of landfall on the projection maps. Either way north or south is vulnerable to a hit. Use the cone rather than the points.

Hurricane or Tropical Storm watches may go up for the lower Florida keys later today.



Cuba has issued hurricane warnings for Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Cgranma, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Camaguey provinces.

A warning also remains for southern Hati,

More to come....

Links

Where do you thiink Ernesto will go? Let us know here


9:30 AM EDT Sunday Update

Hurricane Ernesto, a minimal hurricane has caused a large shift in intensity and track for the National Hurricane Center overnight, model trends kept on pusing east, and now forecast the storm to cross Cuba, and then enter the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The shortwave in the western US, may force the recurvature,putting us in Central Florida at most risk. It will be over cuba, but likely not long enough to significantly affect it





However, conditions seem to favor redevopment when it enters the Gulf. This means the entire west coast of Florida (still including the Panhandle, but mostly the peninsula) should be watching this system.

If it were to make landfall, it would be very late Wednesday through very early Friday, barring any suprises or slowdowns. Be aware that the hurricane center is forecasting a major hurricane in the Eastern Gulf. As the system is not over cuba yet, I would advise calm, right now, but if you haven't now would be a good time to get a few supplies if you have forgotton if you are along the west coast of Florida.

The angle of approach will likely be a very oblique one (somewhat like Hurricane Charley was two years ago), so it's very difficult to pinpoint an absolute landflal location now. Anywhere at and directly south of the center will feel the most issues of the storm.

504 AM EDT-Sunday
NHC has upgraded Tropical Storm Ernesto to a Category 1 Hurricane.
"Recent dropsonde and flight-level wind data from an Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds in Tropical Storm Ernesto have increased to 75 mph. This make Ernesto a Category 1 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale."

Forecaster Stewart issued the 5 AM Discussion on Ernesto and is quoted with... " Now for the really bad news...the Official Forecast track has been shifted significantly to the right or East of the previous track...Especially at 96 and 120 hours..."

"All of the global and regional models now agree on recurvature over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico around 96 hours...and take Ernesto Northeastward across the Central or Northern Florida Peninsula by 120 hours. The Official Track is similar to but a little West of the consensus Models."

Remember to check for updated Advisories and Bulletins from your local NWS Office and/ or the National Hurricane Center~danielw

Event Related Links
StormCarib - Reports from the Caribbean Islands
Caribbean Weather Observations



Guantanamo Bay Radar

Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa, FL Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar

Emergency Management/County info
Florida County Websites (South to North along the West Coast):
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
Collier County, FL (Naples)
Lee County, FL (Ft. Myers)
Charlotte County, FL
Sarasota County, FL
Manatee County, FL
Pinellas County, FL (St. Petersburg)
Hillsborough County, FL (Tampa)
Paso County, FL
Hernando County, FL
Citrus County, FL
Levy County, FL

Other Florida County Emergency Management Websites

State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne
Tallahassee

"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh

Local Newspapers/Websites
Naples News
St. Petersburg Times (Tampabay.com)
Florida Today (Brevard County)
Orlando Sentinel
Tampa Tribune
Palm Beach Post
Miami Herald
Daytona Beach News Journal
News Press (Southwest Florida)

Storm Animation of what a storm passing just north of Tampa would do to Tampa Bay


Web based Video and Audio
Many websites require realplayer for video and audio, you can get real player here or an alternative real media player here (Ie WinXp64)

Jim Williams, from Hurricane City and West Palm Beach, will likely be doing his live audio show as Ernesto approaches on hurricanecity. Listen here He usually starts at 8PM eastern and runs until the 11PM advisory comes out.

Marc Sudduth over at hurricanetrack.com is usually on the road heading toward the storms to provide reports and video and data from the storms. see some of his live streaming video and audio here

Hurricanenow - Former CNN hurricane Reporter Jeff Flock reports from the storm with video updates and live streaming
Weathervine.com storm chasers/video/audio
radioNHCWX (not affiliated with the real NHC)
Barometer Bob

Reply and let us know of other links.


Ernesto

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
More model runs on Ernesto from Jonathan Vigh's page
Google Map Plot of Ernesto
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of Ernesto


Debby

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
More model runs on Debby from Jonathan Vigh's page
SFWMD Model Plot
Google Map Plot of Debby
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of system

Edited by Clark (Sun Aug 27 2006 12:46 PM)


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2114
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Hurricane Ernesto [Re: danielw]
      #71284 - Sun Aug 27 2006 05:47 AM

Might be a blessing for Florida if Cuba takes a pounding. However, with outflow channels setting up shop in just about all quadrants, and being built to stay that way at this time, Ernesto could turn out to be one of those rare TCs only slightly affected by a trip over a relatively narrow swath of land, and once in the GOM, bombs. I believe this is what concerns NHC most at this time - upper levels so favorable that Cuba doesn't do the trick - and once back out into that toasty water, the potential for a Charley-like rapid strengthening.

--------------------
Fully vaccinated as of May 2021
(Moderna x2)


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Tampa_met
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Ernesto [Re: cieldumort]
      #71285 - Sun Aug 27 2006 05:51 AM

Crap im in tampa. Is this recurvature a sure thing?

Unfortunately, NHC doesn't issue bad forecasts~danielw

Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 27 2006 05:54 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Reged: Wed
Posts: 3524
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Hurricane Ernesto [Re: cieldumort]
      #71286 - Sun Aug 27 2006 05:56 AM

With outflow channels like that, I'm not so sure that the topography will have a huge effect on Ernesto.

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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: Hurricane Ernesto [Re: Tampa_met]
      #71287 - Sun Aug 27 2006 06:01 AM

hi guys,
looks like Ernie is really going for it like many of us feared. Reckon we'll see him at Cat 2 with 100 mph winds before he reaches the southern coast of Cuba later. In fact, with multiple outflow channels and an increasingly supportive upper-level environment, as well as a well organised core, Ernie could deepen exceptionally quickly. A major threat to Haiti, Cuba, and increasingly so to Florida.

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3524
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Hurricane Ernesto [Re: Rich B]
      #71288 - Sun Aug 27 2006 06:03 AM

Rich, shouldn't the pressure at 700mb be lower than normal?
This is from the 08Z Vortex report.
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700 Millibars: 3052 Meters (Normal: 3011 Meters)


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2114
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Hurricane Ernesto [Re: danielw]
      #71289 - Sun Aug 27 2006 06:03 AM

Agreed. It's my opinion that should the outflow channels now coming together hold, Cuba may not have any appreciable weakening effect on Ernesto, at all. Of course, this depends on the ifs: If the outflow channels are not disrupted, if the trip over Cuba does not occur at a snail's pace and/or down the middle of the entire island more or less, and if the hurricane can avoid ingesting some of that dry air that is still floating around (although in far less quantities than just a week ago).




--------------------
Fully vaccinated as of May 2021
(Moderna x2)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Hurricane Ernesto [Re: cieldumort]
      #71290 - Sun Aug 27 2006 06:18 AM

I must be asleep still. Ernesto doesn't look appreciably better organized to me on either AVN or overnight visible imagery. I'm sure it is, though.

As for the forecast track shift... Models have been shifting all over the place for the last day or so. I'm going to hold out until the next set of models are run before I start breathing a sigh of relief. 24 hours ago, the NHC forecast was for the system to hit central Louisiana, and now it's forecast to hit near the Big Bend. Model guidance currently supports the forecast, but what will the next model runs show? Time will tell.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: Hurricane Ernesto [Re: danielw]
      #71292 - Sun Aug 27 2006 06:22 AM

Dan,
now im not sure on this but would the higher than normal 700mb heights be a possible indicator of upper-level ridging / high pressure / upper-level anticyclone forming? this was indicated to develop by some models, and with upper-level conditions improving, it could be the case.

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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danielwAdministrator
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Reged: Wed
Posts: 3524
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Hurricane Ernesto [Re: Rich B]
      #71293 - Sun Aug 27 2006 06:26 AM

Thanks Rich,
The anticyclone answer was what I was thinking, but I was hoping I was wrong. That might account for the outflow channels were are seeing. Nearing a worst case scenario for the Western Greater Antilles.


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danielwAdministrator
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Reged: Wed
Posts: 3524
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Hurricane Ernesto [Re: danielw]
      #71294 - Sun Aug 27 2006 06:31 AM

URNT12 KNHC 271012
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/09:57:30Z
B. 17 deg 15 min N
073 deg 06 min W
C. 700 mb 3068 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg 000 nm
F. 134 deg 067 kt
G. 043 deg 012 nm
H. EXTRAP 995 mb
I. 6 C/ 3061 m
J. 13 C/ 3055 m
K. 9 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF303 0505A Ernesto OB 23
MAX FL WIND 69 KT NW QUAD 08:32:00 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB


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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: Hurricane Ernesto [Re: danielw]
      #71295 - Sun Aug 27 2006 06:55 AM

OMG! I'm I still dreaming - what a nightmare to wake up to I can only hope that the storm gets significantly disrupted over Cuba. We residents along the west coast of FL now have that dreadful foreboding of watching every wobble and shift for the next 4-5 days - and planning for the worst. Another charlie situation and a forecasting nightmare for the NHC. Ughh!

--------------------
RJB


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LadyStorm
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 153
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Hurricane Ernesto & eddies [Re: danielw]
      #71296 - Sun Aug 27 2006 06:56 AM

There were 2 warm water eddies in the
gulf. 1 in the northern central gulf and the other to the west. If
these eddies are still active then the fuel for a major hurricane is present. I did check buoy temps and the gulf is very warm. 86-87 water temps on the west central coast of FL.

I remember reading on how Rita and Katrina rapidily intensified due to eddies. Does anyone here have anymore info, such as to the location of these eddies if they still exist?

--------------------
"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"

..........Albert Einstein


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2114
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Hurricane Ernesto & eddies [Re: LadyStorm]
      #71297 - Sun Aug 27 2006 07:03 AM

Loop Current Eddies, or LCEs, last for months, not days or weeks. Yes, they are still in play, but generally along the western fringe of Ernesto's latest forecast track. However, it is important for you to know that much of the Atlantic basin right now will support intensification to Cat 5, temperature-wise, and yet, we haven't even had a hurricane until today. Thus, it is not only all about water temperature. If you want a better idea of why NHC now predicts intensification to major hurricane with or without a trip over the LCE, to quote Dr. Lyons, "look up, way up!"

--------------------
Fully vaccinated as of May 2021
(Moderna x2)


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lcbj68c
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1
Loc: Sarasota, FL
Re: Hurricane Ernesto & eddies [Re: cieldumort]
      #71298 - Sun Aug 27 2006 07:08 AM

Hey guys, I've read on here for some time, but now I'm going to make my first post. I've watched this thing with great interest here from Bradenton, FL and I've just had that gut feeling that the ridge was going to move off rapidly and this thing was gonna do a Charley. Bradenton is usually relatively safe as hurricanes almost have to perfectly do one of these curvature numbers to be anything close to a direct hit. I'm a police officer here and now the rumblings of worry are begining. Looking forward to talking with you guys more often in the coming days.

--------------------
If a hurricane must come, please not on softball nights...we hate rainouts.


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Marknole
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 45
Loc: Wacissa, FL
Re: Hurricane Ernesto [Re: Ron Basso]
      #71299 - Sun Aug 27 2006 07:18 AM

Yikes Ron - Hernando Bch?

I'm surprised by the the 5 AM discussion that stated, "THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO BUT A LITTLE WEST OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS." Three of the models show a Nature Coast (Levy/Dixie/Taylor County) landfall, but the NHC track shows closer to your area. With the continued, and now dramatic eastwards shifts, you would expect the forecaster bias to continue to move right. (Remember Charlie; Tampa, Tampa, Tampa, then a sharp turn into Charlotte Harbor).

We're still seeing a large interaction over Cuba, and despite the impressive outflow mentioned by the met's, I can't see how it can strenghten, much less not get torn apart. Best case (yes, wishcasting), has it continuing to trend east, going over east-central Cuba, then (before it has a chance to strengthen too much), moving into the 'Glades and up the Peninsula as a Cat. 1 or less...


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tornado00
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 85
Loc: Maitland, Florida, USA
Re: Hurricane Ernesto [Re: Marknole]
      #71300 - Sun Aug 27 2006 07:24 AM

At the moment it looks like it is taking a NW jog, and the center may pass over the west end of Haiti. It could possible go up the spine of Cuba, or even possibly go north of it and then recurve for a more southerly landfall in Florida. In addition to that opinion, remember that over the last thirty years hurricane trajectories have became much more accurate, but hurricane intensity forcasts haven't improved all that much. When this storm gets into that really warm water in the southeastern Gulf, anything in intensity could happen in the time provided. My advice is to start getting anything you need early so that you will avoid the rush of people who aren't prepared, (i.e. gasoline for the generators, water, etc...) Hopefully Cuba will help rip this thing apart a little and prevent it making landfall as a major hurricane on the west coast of Florida. We'll just have to wait and see because this is a forcasting nightmare due to the dependency of the track on so many different things happening in the atmosphere.

--------------------
Derek Sutherland


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hope
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Ernesto [Re: danielw]
      #71301 - Sun Aug 27 2006 07:31 AM

The 006 GFS has shifted back to the w/nw with landfall in the big bend area again.

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Clark
Meteorologist


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Re: Hurricane Ernesto [Re: danielw]
      #71302 - Sun Aug 27 2006 07:33 AM

I am somewhat surprised, maybe stunned actually, at how far the official track shifted with the 5am package. That is rare for the NHC, particularly when the models are still all over the place. In fact, the 06Z GFS came in with a landfall in the Panama City-Apalachicola area in the central Florida panhandle. The 06Z GFDL, hot off of the presses, is very similar, accelerating the storm due north practically along 85W. Fact is, the models are still changing from run to run as they do not have a great handle on the ultimate track of this storm.

Do not be surprised if the NHC track requires future adjustment back to the west at later time periods, not just from what the models say, but also if Ernesto does stay over land longer than anticipated and is significantly affected by it. There is simply not enough confidence in the model guidance or in much of anything else right now to continue to slide the track in between the model guidance every 6 hours. People from Baton Rouge east along the entire Gulf coast still need to watch this thing!

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Storm Cooper
User


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Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Hurricane Ernesto [Re: hope]
      #71303 - Sun Aug 27 2006 07:35 AM

Although there has been a major shift both in the official track and modeling...expect more of the same for the next few days. We have a ways to go yet so don't focus on every little (or big) shift this early.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1

Edited by Storm Cooper (Sun Aug 27 2006 07:36 AM)


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