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Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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dkblostnottinghamsmoney
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 5
Loc: Bradenton, Fl
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: Hugh]
      #71346 - Sun Aug 27 2006 10:02 AM

Is it just me or does Ernie have to make almost a left turn to follow the NHC's projectd track??? The Dr. Steve Lyons is going to be right.

Nottingham where are you :?:

Edited by dkblostnottinghamsmoney (Sun Aug 27 2006 10:06 AM)


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Alabama
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: Hugh]
      #71347 - Sun Aug 27 2006 10:03 AM

I doubt they will shift it to much it at 11. May wait until the 12Z run before any shifting occurs.

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Genesis
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 125
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: Hugh]
      #71348 - Sun Aug 27 2006 10:07 AM

Hugh, this is exactly what I was talking about last night.

It appeared to me from both the WV and IR imagery that the storm would likely brush the very edge of Hispanola. That was a major departure from the original forecast track. In terms of miles, its not really big, but in terms of degrees of error 5-6 days out, its enormous!

Yesterday I "bought" the jet-induced ridge fracture, and its presence (and continued heatlh) was IMHO what put the LA/TX border (and a bit west to perhaps Galveston or even Corpus) to the panhandle under the gun. With the ridging eroding and a quite-heavy dig of the jet, you're going to get a recurve.

And now here we are with the scenario setting itself up. The model guidance on the SWWMD (http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_05.gif) site is all clustered between the mid-keys (e.g. Marathon) and Appalachicola, with the left outlier being the AVNO.

The smart thing to do is the prog the center of the line right up where the center of the cone is, which is just north of Tampa. Yes, that's going to freak out plenty of people, and it either is or should, but the really bad news is that a shift just a tad east puts Key West in the maw of a really ugly situation Wednesday early morning - three days from now! As it stands the warning window for people living there is perilously tight now given what has to happen if it comes their way. The trend has been solidly eastward on the models for the last two days, and now they're starting to cluster up a bit.

On the WV you can see the trough pressing east. It does indeed look like its coming, driven by the jet, and in the last six hours or so is starting to accelerate a bit eastward, while actually digging a bit more. That's what the models are looking at.

The ULL is nearing the Belize border, and is off the table. Outflow channels look to be establishing themselves as was noted, and the ULL is going to provide nice ventilation for at least the next day, and perhaps furhter on.

I think the track shift is solid; it may come back west SOME, and I wouldn't call the western panhandle (which is where I am!) out of the woods by any means, but it is looking increasingly likely to be a west florida peninsula or big bend event, and quite possibly a really big one, given the gulf water temperatures.

Up near us, down to 50-60' water temps are well north of 80F. The thermocline a week ago while diving about 20nm offshore didn't show up until around 60-70', and even then, it was only 3 degrees or so. That's unusually deep around here and indicative of a lot of available heat.


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AgentB
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: Alabama]
      #71349 - Sun Aug 27 2006 10:08 AM

The most important information I took from Masters' blog was :

"The NOAA jet is scheduled to fly tonight, so we'll have our first set of higher-reliability model runs Monday morning. The NOAA P-3 gets its first action Monday morning, and will fly their SFMR instrument that measures surface winds over the entire area."

We've seen over the past two seasons how imperative it is to have as much atmospheric data as possible. I think that once this information gets collected the track will become a bit more concrete.

For plotting lat/long I've installed Google Earth.

--------------------
Check the Surf


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JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 422
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: Ron Basso]
      #71350 - Sun Aug 27 2006 10:11 AM

I'm sticking with my prediction from last night (as posted on the other thread): Ernesto moves over Cuba weakens to a TS or minimal Cat 1 then pops out on the other side of Cuba in a different location due land interaction making the true center hard to find. From there it gains strenght to Cat 2/3 (maybe higher if it slows) before making a quick NE turn ala Charley.

The big quesiton is WHEN and WHERE does this turn occur, right now the NHC / models say somewhere north of Tampa. However an early turn makes this a Wilma like event (been there done that, no thanks) or does it get further north up the coast similar to Ivan. Once again I'm most worried about the "jump" over Cuba, over land I doubt we'll see an eye thus the storm might get "lost", at that point in time we'll just be tracking a blob of heavy rain, once this mess regroups it could be very close to S FL. By then there will not be alot of warning time (6-10 hours?) before landfall. Note the large cone of error during the Tuesday PM time frame - this will be the critial time/location at which all preprations in S FL must be completed.

Similar to Charley - a storm tracking N along the west coast of FL is very hard to predict when it comes to exact landfall, it could to the west of the cone for days or it could move only a few degrees E and come ashore within hours. I don't want to scare people... just keep in mind the two main players here that will effect it's track (and thus landfall): 1) location of true after crossing Cuba and 2) when the NE turn begins.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: AgentB]
      #71351 - Sun Aug 27 2006 10:12 AM

I keep hearing reference to Charlie. If you would like to see the NHC animated forecast track of Charlie, click the following link. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/CHARLEY_graphics.shtml This shows the NHC forecast and adjustments. As you can see it was kinda back and forth for a while.

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Hurricane Ernesto - Florida on Notice [Re: danielw]
      #71352 - Sun Aug 27 2006 10:15 AM

I would be surprised to see anything other than a minor change in official forecast path at 11:00. After such a radical switch earlier, they are going to want to maintain some consistency. Plus, if they think there is a chance at Tampa, at this point, I think it might be wise to keep the official forecast nearby. With such a small and compact system, it is going to be interesting to see what happens with land interaction down the road.

--------------------
Jim


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Genesis
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 125
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #71353 - Sun Aug 27 2006 10:16 AM

On the west coast VERY small errors in track result in HUGE landfall changes as a consequence of the impact angle being so oblique.

This is what happened with Charlie, and its extremely dangerous because you can go from being on the "clean" side of a storm with relatively light effects to being nailed with the eyewall with very little notice.


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Sheeper
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 62
Loc: Vero Beach, FL
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: AgentB]
      #71354 - Sun Aug 27 2006 10:19 AM

Right now the question for us in florida will be the impact of Cuba on Earnesto. The models certainly seem to indicate that it will not spend enough time over Cuba for a major impact. Also, after Cuba the storm will likely re-intensify with the warm SSTs in the GOM.

GFDL this morning indicate the storm will hug the west cost and cross the state well north of tampa though other model runs are pointing to a close to tampa event, exiting around Jax.

In any event, this will most likely be a major hurricane at Cat3 and i'll echo the warnings....pay attention, be careful, evacuate early and most of all...BE SAFE!

--------------------
Emergency Management Consultant & Trainer


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Lysis
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #71356 - Sun Aug 27 2006 10:24 AM

Referencing not Charleyís track, but more rather that particular stormís size, Ernesto is a rather small stormÖwith a big swath of landfall real-estate.

The next two days are going to be critical; as was mentioned earlier, this presents a pickle for high risk evaq zones such as the keys.

Question: would history show such storms susceptible to explosive deepening? And what of changes to internal structure? The formative and reorganization stages are always the most delicate, and a center 'jump' such as we saw yesterday would really shake things up a bit after the initial landfall.

--------------------
cheers

Edited by Lysis (Sun Aug 27 2006 10:26 AM)


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dredlox
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 5
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: Lysis]
      #71357 - Sun Aug 27 2006 10:34 AM

Wow, great site. I just found it. I have been doing ad hoc cane tracking and forecasting since AC; After Charley. What a rude awakening that was. Looks like lots of knowledgable people and intelligent discussion. Just what I was looking for.

Maybe it is wishful thinking being in tampa, but the track has consistently shifted right as the models have gotten more data on the projected shortwave. I think you'll see another small shift to the west on this at 11 shortly, and more later today.

It's definitely popping FL somewhere on the peninsula, and i cant imagine lower than cat 3. Hopefully it doesnt have time to build up one of those monster wind fields.


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: dredlox]
      #71362 - Sun Aug 27 2006 10:43 AM

11 am still has it as a hurricane at 75 mph..but a speed of only 9mph.....with recon still 3 hours out..probably not much change..discussion not up yet

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: pcola]
      #71363 - Sun Aug 27 2006 10:44 AM

Looks like the 11 AM track remains basically as it did before.

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4426
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: dredlox]
      #71364 - Sun Aug 27 2006 10:44 AM

Apologies for the false positive of the Cyclone Special update on the front page, working on the problem now.

Feel free to post interesting links regarding Ernesto, I'm in the process of gathering some now for the main page.

This week is going to be busy, folks along the west coast need to watch this storm.


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FlaRebel
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 59
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #71365 - Sun Aug 27 2006 10:49 AM

Quote:

Looks like the 11 AM track remains basically as it did before.




First post this season. The 11 AM track had a significant shift east. Compare the two!


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: dkblostnottinghamsmoney]
      #71366 - Sun Aug 27 2006 10:52 AM

It would have to make a right-hand turn..ala, the NE curvature the models are predicting. A left hand turn would take it to TX or LA.
You can see in the WV loops what is going to cause that Northeastern turn.

I'm not all that sure that I would count on Ernesto staying a small storm. He has a lot of water to work with after he gets away from Hispaniola and depending on how long he spends over Cuba and where will be key in where he ends up.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: Lysis]
      #71367 - Sun Aug 27 2006 10:59 AM

Quote:

Referencing not Charleyís track, but more rather that particular stormís size, Ernesto is a rather small stormÖwith a big swath of landfall real-estate.





A smaller storm makes it even MORE vulnerable to "do a Charley" and get sucked up into Charlotte Harbor.

I woke up this morning with a horrible feeling of deja vu about all of this. Already gassed up both cars, the genny, and my extra cans. Have water, food, et. al.

We'll have to wait until it crosses Cuba to know for sure where it's going to go -- the further west it gets before it's northern jog, the better for SWFL and the worse it is for Tampa and points north.

But the bottom line is, if you're in FL, you need to be at a gas station this am getting filled up -- there's already lines in our neck of the woods. (Charlotte county)

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.


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hope
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: madmumbler]
      #71370 - Sun Aug 27 2006 11:08 AM

The NHC stated that the 11am was put a bit to the eat to be closer to the majority of the 06Z runs. However, most of the runs I have seen are shifting back to the Wast a bit.

[image]http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=05[/image]


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: FlaRebel]
      #71371 - Sun Aug 27 2006 11:08 AM

Yes, the 11am track does not have Ernest making such a sharp right-hand turn...it looks like the Keys would be impacted more and it also looks Tampa Bay would basically have the center in it; however, it looks as though it would exit around the same area--Jax. These will shift back and forth over the next day or so -- and everyone in the cone (or near it) needs to keep a sharp eye on it.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track [Re: hope]
      #71372 - Sun Aug 27 2006 11:18 AM

I am looking at this site for model runs; if anything, it appears to me that the models are more in line at 1200 UTC then 0600UTC.

1200 UTC Model Plots

Maybe I'm incorrect, I don't know. Anyone feel free to correct me if I'm wrong....

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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