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TD#2 forming off the coast of North Carolina, moving away, advisories to begin at 11AM EDT.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 228 (Zeta) , Major: 291 (Laura) Florida - Any: 977 (Michael) Major: 977 (Michael)
35.0N 73.7W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1006mb
Ne at 21 mph
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Archives 2000s >> 2006 Forecast Lounge

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Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Hurricane Ernesto Midday
      #71452 - Sun Aug 27 2006 02:03 PM

I think that we will see Ernesto stay status Quo intensity wise for a good part of the day...There is no relocation that I can see, but the northern-more northwestern inflow is probably being interrupted by the Mtns. of Hispanola. As the system moves furth wnw-nw...this will start to change about the time the system reaches close to the tip of Haiti. From there until will have more energy to feed on and will have a chance to get better organized.

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Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday [Re: dem05]
      #71457 - Sun Aug 27 2006 02:06 PM


Will there be any difference in track if Ernesto is weaker than expected as it moves over Cuba and enters the Gulf?

Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph

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Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday [Re: SirCane]
      #71461 - Sun Aug 27 2006 02:09 PM

This intensity change will likely not have much impact on the track. It the top of the system got lopped off and it was a depression, then would. Considering that the system remains stacked and in a favorable pattern (outside of land interactions)....any weakening or strengthening will likely have no major affect outside of what the models portray.

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