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TD#2 forming off the coast of North Carolina, moving away, advisories to begin at 11AM EDT.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 228 (Zeta) , Major: 291 (Laura) Florida - Any: 977 (Michael) Major: 977 (Michael)
35.0N 73.7W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1006mb
Moving:
Ne at 21 mph
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Archives 2000s >> 2006 Forecast Lounge

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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Hurricane Ernesto Midday
      #71452 - Sun Aug 27 2006 02:03 PM

I think that we will see Ernesto stay status Quo intensity wise for a good part of the day...There is no relocation that I can see, but the northern-more northwestern inflow is probably being interrupted by the Mtns. of Hispanola. As the system moves furth wnw-nw...this will start to change about the time the system reaches close to the tip of Haiti. From there until Cuba...it will have more energy to feed on and will have a chance to get better organized.

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SirCane
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday [Re: dem05]
      #71457 - Sun Aug 27 2006 02:06 PM

Folks,

Will there be any difference in track if Ernesto is weaker than expected as it moves over Cuba and enters the Gulf?

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dem05
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday [Re: SirCane]
      #71461 - Sun Aug 27 2006 02:09 PM

This intensity change will likely not have much impact on the track. It the top of the system got lopped off and it was a depression, then yeah...it would. Considering that the system remains stacked and in a favorable pattern (outside of land interactions)....any weakening or strengthening will likely have no major affect outside of what the models portray.

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