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Antigua, Barbuda under a Tropical Storm watch as Philippe gets close enough to bring flooding rain to the Leeward Islands overnight.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 33 (Idalia) , Major: 33 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 33 (Idalia) Major: 33 (Idalia)
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cieldumortModerator
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Major Hurricane John Setting Sights on Baja - Several top models shift hard right
      #73089 - Fri Sep 01 2006 03:17 AM

Hurricane John, who has recently been a Charley-like Cat. 4 and brushed along the western coast of central Mexico, does now have his sights on the tip of Baja. Many models have shifted more and more to the right, and several now in fact clearly suggest a trip up along the western coast of Baja California.

As of this post update (2:40 AM CDT) Navy at 115MPH Cat 3
SSD CI 5.5 117MPH
Raw CIMSS ADT 6.l 134MPH





Cabo Radar Site

Wunderground model plots page for John

Wunderground historical track plots of similarly located tropical cyclones



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vpbob21
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Re: Major Hurricane John Setting Sights on Baja - Several top models shift hard right [Re: cieldumort]
      #73137 - Fri Sep 01 2006 07:25 PM

Track looks like it's going well east of the NHC projected ... moving NNW. Looks like it may just graze the eastern shore of the southern Baja and move up into the Gulf of California.

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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Major Hurricane John Setting Sights on Baja - Several top models shift hard right [Re: vpbob21]
      #73139 - Fri Sep 01 2006 10:00 PM

Lots of reasons to argue that the weakness in the High will allow him to move more NNW or NW than WNW or W, and possibly even make a right at some point. For now, his track appears to be generally on a level very similar to 2003's Marty.

NWS offices in Arizona are already including special verbiage to account for the possibility of thunderstorms with heavy rain. After 1997's Nora PR disaster, it would seem that everyone is treading carefully, of course.

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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Major Hurricane John Setting Sights on Baja - Several top models shift hard right [Re: vpbob21]
      #73169 - Sun Sep 03 2006 03:37 AM

models have again shifted (flip-flopped) well to the right (north and north-northeast) of ofci -- think NHC will have their hands forced if just one more run comes in with several models showing an intact closed low crossing into arizona.

(The above models plotted on wunderground include the GFS(avn), ukmet, bam medium, NOGAPS & GFDL. )

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