ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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I sure hope something can get cranking in the central or western gulf this weekend because we are now about 13 inches below normal in these parts.I'm glad to see you in Florida getting some because I know you all needed it ,too.Can you send some our way now? 
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Joe
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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A look at 12Z models shows the upper level trof weakening and moving west. So Florida rain chances will decrease although will get back into a more typical thunderstorm pattern as week goes along.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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I got this little tidbit off of the Hurricanehollow.com message board. Our chat site links up with them and Hurricanecity.com. This from TropicalWeatherWatcher (a good ole' LA boy) by way of the Brownsville NWS:
AVN PLACES A CLOSED SFC LOW OVR SRN CAMPECHE FRI
THRU 7 PM SAT...WITH ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE ALOFT. A NEED FOR
CONTINUED ATTENTION TO THIS AREA A MUST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL RUNS
Stil, I'm looking at the Carribean wave riding westward around the base of a major High Pressure that will be forming along the east coast this week. Watch for it to bring some rain on into the Gulf.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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>>>>Well the little low in the Gulf that every one was making a big deal about yesterday that lasted for about 3 hours really was bad.
I didn't make a big deal out of it. This is what I said:
"I agree with you on that Rich. There is even an 'eye-type' appearance in the visible. There is a good closeup of it on Fox8live.com - click on "weather" then click on Visible Sattelite and you can see the feature - whatever it is - pretty well. "
"Whatever it is" is hardly a ringing endorsement, but it was cool to watch for those 3 hours :0
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Things may be quiet now here in mid June,but it is mearly the calm before the storm, because it is my firm belief that this is the year of"THE BIG ONE".
It will approach from the eastern horizon in August or September,moving West or West-Northwest much like Floyd did in 1999,as strong or stronger than Floyd,this one will not play games with SE coastline,for it will have its sight set on a location in Florida most likely from Vero Beach to Marathon Key will be its destination,moving slowly but steadily those in its path must not & will not take this lightley,as it will soon be evident,as plain as day, that they are in the path of "THE BIG ONE",Hugo & Andrew will have to take a backseat to this one as winds gusting to 180 MPH & a storm surge of 18 feet & higher devastate the once serene coastline,inland locations are not spared from the wrath of the destructive fury of the winds,as it slowly moves across the state it does weaken some due to its slow movement,but the damage will have been done it will emerge in the Gulf of Mexico & turns its attention to the Mississippi-Louisianna coastline.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Lotta votes for "The Big One." Of course it goes without saying that "I got yo' big one, right hea'". 
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Greyman
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 32
Loc: Miami,Fla.
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I must say that is a pretty good post,it gets me into the mude of all the fear,anticipation and excitement that goes along with a approaching Hurricane,I do have a slight problem with the poll because right now who is to know if a big one will hit or not,back in June of 1992 nobody knew that Andrew was just 2 months away,the same could be said for other years when a Hurricane did or did not hit,none of us know what is going to happen in the future whether you vote yes or no.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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lol Steve..i have been predicting the BIG ONE for 3 years now.(my wife is tired of waiting)  I figure if i root for no storm to hit , then it will after all the remodeling i've done so i keep saying the big one is coming.Vero Beach up through St Cloud with 20 inches of rain 120 mph winds sounds kewl 
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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The local weathermen here said that it was the convection coming north off of central america right now that was what would get into the gulf and maybe be the mischief that the models are jumping on.I guess we will just have to wait and see.So far,though,the models have been off during this early part of the season.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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That thing is a little buzzsaw and has the best IR signature of anything so far this year. It's probably just a blob, but I haven't tracked it to see if it was an earlier wave or born in South America.
Steve
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Check out the loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
It definetly looks like some circulation forming around 62/20.
Does anyone think it has a chance of developement?
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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You people jump all over any little sprinkle you see,are you that desperate.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Steve, ya telling me more information than I need to know... hehe (funny though)
The swirl around 20N and 62W is an upper level feature with no convection and significant dry air on it's west side. Little chance for this thing to do anything IMO.
Our little blob coming off Central America appears to be weaking a little tonight, convection not as deep as earlier today. Not uncommon for these things to flare up and then weaken... persistence is the key....
Be that as it may, pressure on Roatan Honduras, located on the island north of the mainland, is pretty low at 1008 mb with east winds at 22 mph. This might be the only thing to watch over the next several days... if it survives and gets into the GOM....
Finally, there will be no BIG ONE on the MS coast... we had ours about 33 years ago... and should not get another one for 67 more.... now the New Orleans area may be a different story... they are way overdue.....
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
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Ooops forgot to logon... response to Steve and comments on Central American blob by yours truly...
Frank P
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Rad
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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Track the "BIG ONE " here at . in memory of John Hope . http://www.weather.com/downloads/trackingtheeye/ ..not for MACS though.
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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>>You people jump all over any little sprinkle you see,are you that desperate.
Not me and no. But uh, it is a tropical weather board.
Steve
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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more than half the month gone, and still nothing. typical june. been very quiet all around the world, actually... southern hemisphere and over in the westpac. two super typhoons earlier in the year and little since. not the usual el nino vigor, maybe that says something as to the effect is having. eastpac pretty normal so far, though a bit on the slow side. what this means for the atlantic i have no idea.
noticed all of you florida folks jumping about rain yesterday, but nothing doing here in the interior south. clouds hung around all day but never did anything. been very few months since mid 1998 that we've gotten average or above average rainfall, expecting saguaro cactus to start growing in the back yard any day now.
and how about the big one? well, best not to speculate. its sort of like predicting when the next major global terrorism event will happen. though intrigued, i don't feel at all jipped when a borderline cat 5 floyd aimed at east florida turns out to be a cat 2 rainstorm in north carolina. just blink and go back to the vigil. its the old question of where us weather aficionados need to draw the line between being low key adrenaline junkies and rubberneckers at the death and ruin.
well, just over two weeks into the season, but still about eight weeks from the start of the thick part. ya know, june and july never really give us anything major. look back over the years of records.. the only thing that really stands out against this rule is audrey in 1957. lesson being, unless youre that cajun guy from cameron la who posts here, you dont have good reason to worry before august.
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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more model blips today, but still nothing steadily pinging on the radar screen. bastardi covered one nicely on his daily piece, that fearsome 1020 mb low that looms in the future for the north carolina coast. basically the thing is supported by an upper system and wedged in between two merging highs, so it has the potential to bring gradient type onshore winds and precip that spreads inland as the upper system pulls west. maybe it will rain here for a change. the disturbed weather wedge lingers and pulls slowly south on some models, as by the weekend the ridge to the north is depressed. probably nothing, but in trudging june it's news.
other thing of interest is eastpac/boc. theres a healthy wave/complex coming off central america right now that might become cristina in a few days, and some models insisting on unsettled weather in the boc. whether this is one of those eastpac reflections or a pattern induced thing, or just mumbo jumbo i don't know.. but for some reason i think the two are related. on the other hand, with the upper system splitting and pulling across the southeast, the upper SW jet in the area will probably keep cranking. more so if something gets going south of mexico.
thats the long version of the usual line for this time of year: tropical development is not expected through thursday.
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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This is whats happening in Cocoa Beach...
The satellites show the streams of moisture coming from the SW. But now there is a strong wind blowing out of the NE
(about 20 mph) Will this spark off storms having the cooler NE air colliding with the warmer moist air.?
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