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cieldumort
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IOKE NOW CAT 4 per NRL - Warnings up for Johnston Island -
      #70382 - Tue Aug 22 2006 02:25 AM

01C IOKE 115kts 945mb 135N 167W


Quote:


HURRICANE IOKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006
2100 UTC MON AUG 21 2006

AT 11 AM HST...2100Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS





Johnston Atoll - Pacific Map

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HurryCaneForm
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Re: IOKE NOW CAT 4 per NRL - Warnings up for Johnston Island - [Re: cieldumort]
      #72220 - Tue Aug 29 2006 03:11 AM

Ioke is just a monster presently or should I say a Super Typhoon! It's taking a direct aim at The Wave islands probly as a Cat 5 Or a Cat 4.!

Winds are now 130 kts with 160 kts gusts!!!

http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/satshots/wp0106sams.jpg

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My Hurricane Season 2006 : 15/7/4

Michael.



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cieldumort
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Re: IOKE NOW CAT 4 per NRL - Warnings up for Johnston Island - [Re: HurryCaneForm]
      #72270 - Tue Aug 29 2006 06:40 AM

Ioke is setting =all= kinds of records

" PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST FRI AUG 25 2006

...HURRICANE IOKE BECOMES FIFTH CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IN CENTRAL
PACIFIC AND UNOFFICIALLY HOLD THE LOWEST SEA LEVEL PRESSURE RECORD
IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...

EARLIER TODAY HURRICANE IOKE STRENGTHENED TO CATEGORY 5 INTENSITY
WITH WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 160 MPH. THIS IS THE FIFTH CATEGORY
5 HURRICANE ON RECORD IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...AND THE FIRST ONE
SINCE 1994. IOKE IS THE FIRST STORM TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC AND ACHIEVE CATEGORY 5 STATUS. JOHN...EMILIA AND GILMA
MOVED IN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC BEFORE STRENGTHENING...WHILE
PATSY CAME IN FROM THE WEST PACIFIC.

IT MUST BE NOTED THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE RECORDS IN THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC BEFORE THE EARLY 1960S ARE INCOMPLETE.

THE TOP STRONGEST STORMS ON RECORD IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC ARE
1. HURRICANE PATSY - CATEGORY 5 - 150KT/175MPH - SEPTEMBER 1959
2. HURRICANE JOHN - CATEGORY 5 - 150KT/175MPH - AUGUST 1994
3. HURRICANE EMILIA- CATEGORY 5 - 140KT/160MPH - JULY 1994
4. HURRICANE GILMA - CATEGORY 5 - 140KT/160MPH - JULY 1994
5. HURRICANE IOKE - CATEGORY 5 - 140KT/160MPH - AUGUST 2006
6. HURRICANE RICK - CATEGORY 4 - 125KT/145MPH - SEPTEMBER 1985
7. HURRICANE INIKI - CATEGORY 4 - 125KT/145MPH - SEPTEMBER 1992
8. HURRICANE FABIO - CATEGORY 4 - 120KT/140MPH - AUGUST 1988

AT THE SAME TIME...THE ESTIMATED SURFACE PRESSURE FROM SATELLITE
ANALYSIS WAS 921MB OR 27.20 INCHES.

WITH GILMA AND JOHN THERE WAS AIR FORCE RECONNAISANCE AIRCRAFT THAT
MEASURED SEA LEVEL PRESSURE. GILMA BOTTOMED OUT AT 926MB OR 27.35
INCHES AND JOHN REACHED 929MB OR 27.43 INCHES. HURRICANE INIKI WAS
AT 938MB OR 27.70 INCHES AT ITS PEAK. "

=Also=

" HURRICANE IOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006
500 PM HST SAT AUG 26 2006

HURRICANE IOKE IS ABOUT TO CROSS THE DATELINE AND BECOME TYPHOON IOKE...STILL AT CATEGORY 5 STATUS. SUBJECTIVE Dvorak ESTIMATES FOR 26/2330Z OF 7.0 FROM CPHC AND KGWC...AND 6.5 FROM SAB AND JTWC...PROMPT US TO KEEP INITIAL INTENSITY AT 140 KT. AODT FROM CPHC IS 6.9. IOKE MAINTAINS A WELL-FORMED EYE WITH A CENTRAL TEMP OF +3.8C AND A SURROUNDING CLOUD REGION TEMP OF -72.0C. IOKE APPEARS TO HAVE COMPLETED AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WITH LITTLE OR NO DECREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. "

=And=

" IOKE COULD ENTER THE RECORD BOOKS FOR LONGEVITY AS A CATEGORY 4 OR GREATER STORM. "

=And Now=
Ioke's pressure has been estimated to be down to as low as 900MB

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HurryCaneForm
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Re: IOKE NOW CAT 4 per NRL - Warnings up for Johnston Island - [Re: cieldumort]
      #72450 - Tue Aug 29 2006 05:34 PM

HONOLULU, Hawaii (AP) -- The U.S. military has evacuated 200 people from Wake Island before the arrival of Typhoon Ioke, the strongest Central Pacific hurricane in more than decade.

Classified as a Category 5 "super typhoon," Ioke is expected to extensively damage the U.S. territory when it hits Wednesday with 155-mph winds, said Jeff Powell, lead forecaster for the National Weather Service in Honolulu.

"This is going to roll up a storm surge that will probably submerge the island and destroy everything that's not made of concrete," Powell said.

The evacuees, mostly American and Thai contractors, on Monday were flown to Hickam Air Force Base on the Hawaiian island of Oahu, said Maj. Clare Reed, a spokeswoman for the 15th Airlift Wing.

The contractors work at a civilian base, Reed said. No other permanent residents live on the tiny island, she said.

Ioke had winds of 160 mph and gusts up to 185 mph on Monday, Powell said.

The storm was 560 miles southeast of Wake Island and on track for a direct hit, according to the forecast.

Wake Island is 2,300 miles west of Honolulu and 1,510 miles east of Guam. The storm is expected to strike at 8 p.m. ET on Wednesday, or noon Thursday on the island.

Copyright 2006 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.


Well, I'm glad that they took the warnings seriously. Who wouldn't? After a Cat.5 is fuming towards you.

--------------------

My Hurricane Season 2006 : 15/7/4

Michael.



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vpbob21
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Re: IOKE NOW CAT 4 per NRL - Warnings up for Johnston Island - [Re: HurryCaneForm]
      #72667 - Wed Aug 30 2006 01:58 AM

this has been an amazing storm ... GFS model has it passing near or over Japan around Sept. 7. If it gets there it will have covered about 4200 miles in a little less than 3 weeks

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Storm Cooper
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Re: IOKE NOW CAT 4 per NRL - Warnings up for Johnston Island - [Re: vpbob21]
      #72685 - Wed Aug 30 2006 02:41 AM

Last advisory issued...



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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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cwilLR5
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Re: IOKE NOW CAT 4 per NRL - Warnings up for Johnston Island - [Re: cieldumort]
      #73094 - Fri Sep 01 2006 01:02 PM

Does anybody know how Wake Island is doing today?? I understand the highest point of elev. was 18 ft and they were expecting storm surges of over 40ft. Also there was one meter. staying behind to record data so I was just seeing what has happened to Wake Island???

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vpbob21
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Re: IOKE NOW CAT 4 per NRL - Warnings up for Johnston Island - [Re: cwilLR5]
      #73108 - Fri Sep 01 2006 03:19 PM

According to Masters' blog the automated station reported winds to 78 mph gusting to 100 mph and a pressure of 934 mb before it failed. The storm passed north of Wake so the surge probably wasn't as bad as it could have been.

Currently Ioke is down to 115 kts. ... weakest it has been in over a week. Next dot of land in its path is Minami Tori Shima ... should pass north of there in about 36 hrs. JTWC forecast track puts it SE of Tokyo at 120 hrs. moving NW. Winds still expected to be 100 kts. by then.


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cieldumort
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Re: IOKE NOW CAT 4 per NRL - Warnings up for Johnston Island - [Re: cwilLR5]
      #73122 - Fri Sep 01 2006 07:15 PM

I wouldn't think that Wake took on 40 foot storm surge - this would be a bit of a stretch in any tropical cyclone, let alone being on the western quadrants.
Here are some amazing 3D-enhanced and close-up images of Ioke passing Wake.

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LaVidaCyclone
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Re: IOKE NOW CAT 4 per NRL - Warnings up for Johnston Island - [Re: cieldumort]
      #73140 - Sat Sep 02 2006 02:08 AM

Wow, Ioke has been a crazy one.

Sat. image plus track all one one:: http://www.angelfire.com/planet/sieklone06/ioke-sat-track.htm

I can't believe how far it's come already. Looks like it wants to pay JPN a visit before it's all said and done.

---

WTPN31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/

1. TYPHOON 01C (IOKE) WARNING NR 052
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 22.4N 160.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT


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vpbob21
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Re: IOKE NOW CAT 4 per NRL - Warnings up for Johnston Island - [Re: LaVidaCyclone]
      #73164 - Sun Sep 03 2006 02:17 AM

Looks like the end of the road is finally in sight. The forecast calls for the storm to recurve around 145 E, a couple hundred miles east of Japan. Winds down to 110 kts. and expected to slowly spin down. Still an impressive journey.

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cieldumort
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Re: IOKE NOW CAT 4 per NRL - Warnings up for Johnston Island - [Re: vpbob21]
      #73257 - Mon Sep 04 2006 07:29 AM

Ioke is now expected to transition into a very powerful 965mb extra-tropical cyclone and impact the Aleutians and southern Alaska.

NWS Anchorage:

MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH NEXT STORM TO IMPACT THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN
WED/THU. THE GFS IS BY FAR THE FASTEST OF SOLUTIONS WHERE ECMWF IS
MUCH SLOWER BEYOND WED NIGHT (07/12Z). PRESSURES APPEAR TO BE WITHIN
THE BALLPARK. SINCE THIS SYSTEM HAS TROPICAL ORIGINS...AM FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THIS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT STORM...BUT POSITIONING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM. FOR NOW WILL NUDGE WINDS UP IN EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIODS AND WATCH SYSTEM AS IT EVOLVES.

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cieldumort
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Re: IOKE NOW CAT 4 per NRL - Warnings up for Johnston Island - [Re: cieldumort]
      #73458 - Wed Sep 06 2006 05:49 PM

Quote:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT WED SEP 6 2006
.DISCUSSION...

...THE FEATURE THAT IS RAPIDLY BECOMING THE DOMINANT WEATHER SYSTEM IN
THE AREA IS THE LOW WEST OF THE ALEUTIANS...WHICH CONTAINS THE
REMAINS OF FORMER SUPER TYPHOON IOKE. THIS LOW WILL BOMB OUT TODAY
OVER THE BERING SEA. CENTRAL SURFACE PRESSURE WILL BOTTOM OUT AT
AROUND 963 MB EARLY THURSDAY. BEING A FORMER TYPHOON...THIS LOW
CONTAINS COPIOUS MOISTURE AND WILL BRING DECENT AMOUNTS OF RAIN OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO THE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA ALONG WITH
STRONG WINDS. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA IT
WILL FINALLY KICK OUT THE GULF LOW THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THEN CROSS
THE AKPEN AND DROP INTO THE GULF SATURDAY TO TAKE ITS PLACE. THE
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE ABOVE SCENARIO THROUGH
ABOUT SUNDAY.





Current Hazards from NWS Alaska Region

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cieldumort
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Re: IOKE NOW CAT 4 per NRL - Warnings up for Johnston Island - [Re: cieldumort]
      #73569 - Sun Sep 10 2006 01:15 AM

TWC has some new video (VOD) showing a close-up pass over Wake Island - as well as a satellite history of Ioke from west of Hawaii all the way to Alaska.

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