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General Discussion >> Hurricane Ask/Tell
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hustler
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Newbie has a question
      #73554 - Sat Sep 09 2006 01:09 AM

Hello
I dont know if this has been asked before, but i have a question. How did forecasters know that the 2006 storm season was going to have most Hurricanes hitting the eastern coast (Carolinas) more than Florida? How'd they know the general path of hurricanes so early--and they are right, most are headed in that direction---and do they have predictions on 2007 yet?
Thanks

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hustler
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Re: Newbie has a question *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: hustler]
      #73570 - Sat Sep 09 2006 09:53 PM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

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cieldumort
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Re: Newbie has a question [Re: hustler]
      #73571 - Sat Sep 09 2006 11:18 PM

First, the meat of these long-range forecasts tended to include Florida:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Pre-season_forecasts

If you would like to read their reasoning, it can be found here:

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2005/dec2005/

Also, Accuweather made some pretty wild forecasts for this year, which I personally would not exactly call "accurate," but which did favor the "east coast" over some other areas. You can read some of their reasoning here in their preseason forecast:

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/promo-ad.asp?partner=accuweather&dir=aw&page=hurr2006

As for North Carolina, that state sticks out of like a sore thumb, and as such, is easily whacked by any cyclones being drawn north or northeast. However, there has only been one official North Carolina landfall this season, so far, which is hardly a "trend" worth noting, IMHO. You can see this plainly for yourself, here:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2006/index.html

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