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Archives 2002-2009 >> 2006 Forecast Lounge
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allan
Weather Master


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Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Quiet Time Interrupted?
      #74118 - Fri Nov 03 2006 02:08 PM

Looks to me the center of what I still believe is Tropical Deppression 10, has jumped back out in the sea. Interesting storm. I do believe this was a unamed Tropical Storm with winds of around 40 mph at one point yesterday. Just look at the observations from yesterday. It had to be. Though the new 12 CMC model takes this and brings it up the yucatan penninsula and blows it up to a full force Hurricane in the gulf and headed to right around where Wilma hit last year. Though... instead of booting out to see. This model shows (Joyce?) next to the Carolinas at a pressure around cat. 2 or 3 force. Heads it up to NY. Classic yes.. I do not think this is a Nor'easter. From where it shows it blowing up.. thats not a normal low. Some thing to watch. CMC is the only player for now. Lets not forget it predicted Alberto a week before the other models did.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cg...;hour=Animation

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Allan Reed - 18,9,5

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Clark
Meteorologist


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Re: Quiet Time Interrupted? [Re: allan]
      #74120 - Sat Nov 04 2006 05:32 PM

How did it "have to be?" No, it really didn't. If it doesn't meet the definition of being a classified tropical system, it simply isn't.

What the Canadian model is showing is baroclinic development in 2 and a half days and beyond -- in other words, not of 93L -- and not of a tropical nature.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmcglb/fcst/archive/06110412/100.html
and
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmcglb/fcst/archive/06110412/124.html

That is more typical of a warm-seclusion development with a broadening wind field.

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Clark
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Re: Quiet Time Interrupted? [Re: allan]
      #74121 - Sat Nov 04 2006 05:34 PM

Also, the Canadian model had some wholesale changes implemented into it at the start of the month with two goals:

1) Improve the horizontal resolution (now global at 33km, not shabby)
and
2) Reduce the number of false alarms with tropical development and, overall, improve tropical cyclone forecasting (particularly as it relates to the speed of motion)

The CMC's GEM model was notorious for overdeveloping and overaccelerating tropical cyclones. Just because it got one right out of 100 wrong doesn't make it worth watching just because of the one that it did get right. That principle is why so many people have a problem with Accuweather, but that's another topic for another day and another forum.

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