HanKFranK
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Easy to summarize the competition results for 2006. Everybody went high. Dave Foster won with a May forecast putting the numbers at 12/8/2. We ended up seeing 10/5/2. He went near average and didn't miss the mark by much.
Go ahead and use this thread to post for the 2007 forecast. I'll attach it to whatever goes up around late spring, because nobody (especially myself) remembered to make a competition thread back in November before the Gray numbers came out. What were they anyway... something like 14/7/4? Gotta run now, maybe somebody can verify/correct that? Will tag a personal forecast on here later on...
HF 2223z20december
(pretty close - it was 14/7/3 - I did put up a Met Blog, but not a competition)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Dec 21 2006 11:19 PM)
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allan
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Hmm.. I heard that El Nino may be starting to fade away now.. Though I got that from a post so who knows? lol. I believe we will see 14 - 18 storms.. somewhere in there. 9 - 12 Hurricanes, and last but not least.. 3 - 6 Major Hurricanes.. It all depends on when the El Nino dissapears.. If it's early, possibly look at another 2004 - 2005 event. If it dissapears later, look for another average or below average season.
So heres my prediction.. 18/11/5 (2007)
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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Myles
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Expecting El Nino will disspate by May/June (maybe not a good assumption condsidering the way it started) im thinking there will be a return to normalcy as far the last 10 years have gone(barring el nino years) So im expecting about 13/7/4 for my numbers. Maybe 2 in July(1 cane), 4 in Aug(2 canes, 1 of them a major), 4 in Sept(3 canes, 2 are majors), 2 in Oct(1 cane, is a major) and 1 in Nov. Of course thats all pulling numbers out my butt, but we'll see how it goes.
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Clark
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Will wait to see how the El Nino event evolves over the next few months, but as of now I'm thinking somewhat more active than 2006 but still below the 2001-2005 average.
We'll go with 12/6/3 for now. Of the tropical storms, I'm thinking one in July, three in August, four in September, three in October, and one in November. The hurricanes should be confined to the middle of the season. There's plenty of time to work out details, though.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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My earlier Met Blog pretty much covered my early guesstimate at 11/6/2, however, a third major would certainly seem realistic for the coming season, so I may nudge that category up a notch in April.
Cheers,
ED
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Hurricane29
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On there 2 update TSR continues to forcast an active season across the Atlantic Basin. 15/8/4
TSR
Edited by Hurricane29 (Wed Jan 03 2007 11:09 PM)
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allan
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I can easily agree with there forecasts. This warming we are seeing is not good for the upcoming season, the way the high pressures are set up. The bermuda high is pushing slightly westward, looks to be more landfalling storms if it continues to either stay or push more westward by the summer. It's about the same setup as in December of 1998, which led to some landfalls in 1999. Heat leads to active Hurricane Season. I have now bumped my numbers due to the heat so early and the way the storms are going to 18/9/6 (sorry, just going by the observations). My eyes are on the Gulf of Mexico this year, something like could pop up again in the summer if things keep on going the way there going this year so far.
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
Edited by allan (Sat Jan 06 2007 01:09 PM)
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sara33
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Okay, I somewhat agree with Allan, this season has been warm, BUT, I hear of El Nino continuing( been reading up on that, thanks to all of you wonderful people for giving me the links:-) and I am going a bit lower again for the '07 season.. Really, I hope we see many more years like '06~
I am giong with 13/6/3.. I am sure that this will change.. just preminilary thoughts...
Chris
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Interesting SST forecast issued by yesterday - a complete reversal from earlier forecasts. They now expect El Nino to weaken considerably in February and to become neutral by March or April. Earlier forecasts had carried a strong El Nino through the Spring - thus one of the major suppressing factors on activity may no longer exist at the start of the season.
NWS SST Forecast
Of course next month the outlook could flip-flop again, but if it doesn't, and the upper shear relaxes, we could experience a season that would be quite a bit more active than last year.
Cheers,
ED
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Hurricane29
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 El Nino is weaking occording to the lastest BOM update.
Here is a piece of there discussion...
All the main indicators show that the El Niño event has begun to weaken. This bodes well for a switch towards wetter conditions across Australia sometime in the late summer or autumn. The timing of the weakening also fits in well with that observed during previous events, although it is still possible for there to be renewed strengthening of the El Niño event for a month or two before it finally dissipates .
Lets see how everything pans out in the coming months as we may very well be looking at an active season.
LASTEST BOM UPDATE
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allan
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I deffinatly agree, I knew EL NINO would start to weaken around this point. I expect a simuliar season like 2005. I guess the big guy up there was giving us a break last year. I think the GOM is the target thsi year and the East Coast. We'll have to see if this weakening continues, if it does.. we may have more than even 14 storms.
Edited for content in relation to Forum.
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
Edited by Storm Cooper (Wed Jan 10 2007 06:55 PM)
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Hurricane29
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Well CPC in there update today thinks different and believes El Nino will be around atleast threw may...
Here is a part of there discussion...
Most of the statistical and coupled models, including the Climate Forecast System (CFS), indicate that SST anomalies are near their peak and that decreasing anomalies are likely during February-May 2007 (Fig. 5). Recent observed trends in the upper ocean tend to support those forecasts. Decreasing upper-ocean heat content in the central equatorial Pacific has been progressing east in association with the upwelling portion of the most recent Kelvin wave. In the absence of any further Kelvin wave activity, the upper-ocean heat content should return to near average in a few months. However, there is considerable uncertainty in this outlook, given the resurgence of activity in late December 2006. It is possible that the enhanced precipitation phase of the , which is currently entering the western tropical Pacific, might trigger a more persistent pattern of cloudiness and precipitation over the anomalously warm waters of the central equatorial Pacific during the next several weeks. If that occurs, then the equatorial easterlies over the central Pacific will likely weaken possibly leading to the initiation of a fifth Kelvin wave.
TODAY'S CPC UPDATE
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ftlaudbob
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It has been in the low 80's almost the entire winter so far here in south Fl.What kind of impact could that have on the 07 cane season?People who have lived here for many years say it's the warmest winter they can remember.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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It could make a difference if the basin stays on the warm side this winter - but - last year the coldest temperatures of the winter occurred in February. We still have at least another six weeks where colder weather could lower the SSTs in the western Atlantic basin.
Cheers,
ED
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B.C.Francis
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I agree. Next 6-8 weeks could make a difference. I know one thing though, it has been a mild winter here in Indiatantic Fla. and I `m kind of enjoying it. When I can sit down at the beach in Janurary and the temp is 83 its a great thing. We`ll see what the up coming weeks have in store for us in central Florida. I`ve noticed one thing, business has been off a bit over on the island. I don`t know if this is weather related or just another twist in the economy. I haven`t seen a whole lot of snow birdies like it used be. Maybe they`re going somewhere else,or saving their pennies. Who knows.........13/5/2
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Hurricane29
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Summary: El Niño continues to weaken
There has been a sustained cooling of the equatorial Pacific since early December, with current SST anomalies now close to their El Niño thresholds. This is the clearest sign that the El Niño event is weakening and it bodes well for a switch towards average or wetter than average conditions across eastern Australia sometime in the late summer or autumn. In fact, we've already seen a southward extension of tropical moisture which resulted in heavy rain over the NT, SA and the western parts of Queensland, NSW and Victoria. This can be taken as a sign that rainfall patterns are beginning to change across Australia, the timing of which is consistent with that observed during previous events.
In addition to the surface cooling, there has been substantial cooling below the surface; a situation that is likely to promote further weakening of the surface El Niño pattern. However, the , Trade Winds and central-western Pacific cloudiness have seen their decline towards neutral values arrested somewhat during January, in association with a westerly wind burst mid-month. The westerly burst has now dissipated, so it is expected that these other indicators will continue their general trend towards neutrality over the coming months, in keeping with the weakening of the El Niño event. Furthermore, computer modelling supports the view that the El Niño will continue to decline.
Bom Update
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Hurricane29
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TSR increases there number's on there Febuary update!
January numbers-15/8/4
February numbers 16/9/4
They also mention an 81% percent chance of seeing tropical activity along the U.S. coastline.
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allan
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We *could* see a category 5 Hurricane make landfall with full power this year.. Deffinatly not going to be another quiet season because We are now out of El Nino. Which over here in Florida means less tornadoes lol. I have kept my numbers going for this year.. 18/9/6 - (i'm not crazy, I just believe it's gonna be a wild year) 2004 and 2005 seasons really pop in my mind for this year.. could we yet again reach the greek alphabet? It's gonna be a very interesting year. What are the new TSR numbers? I know they came in this morning but I get a code that I can't read lol
(Post was moved because it had nothing to do with Hurricane History)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Feb 23 2007 10:01 AM)
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madmumbler
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La Nina is already here, according to a NOAA press release today.
So I'm going to shoot for the middle: 12/8/4
And I hope none of them hit us here in Fl, because I need to get a new fuel tank for my genny!
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Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.
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jojoindian6
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I've been looking at this site for a year now and I love it!! Just thought I'd throw my thoughts out here since I finally got around to registering. I am also of the opinion that it's going to be a crazy year. Mostly, from what I understand about the weaker shear created by Nina, I would see stronger storms as opposed to a considerable increase in number. Now I don't know much about hurricanes as I'm from the, right now freezing, mid-west, but I've been involved in tracking tornadoes up here for quite a while. I'm headed down to LA in a couple weeks for my third trip since rebuilding houses. God forbid that happen again anytime soon, but I'm thinking there will be one Cat 5 at landfall. My prediction is 13/8/4.
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