weather_wise911
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Indeed the banding features have--but it's still not the amount, or the organization of convection I'd like to see with a tropical--or subtropical--storm.
Still think we just need to monitor this one a little while longer before we "pull the trigger."
WW-911
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hurricaneguy
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Loc: Greeneville, TN
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Couldn't agree more. I strongly feel if this system holds together like it is now that we will have Andrea by tomorrow. Several meteorologists here at the NWC all agree this is a strong scenario. This is indeed an interesting start to the 2007. The latest SST from LSU is attached.
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hurricaneguy
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Loc: Greeneville, TN
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000
WONT41 KNHC 082003
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM EDT TUE MAY 8 2007
A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS...HAS BEEN
MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THE LOW IS PRODUCING
GALE-FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COASTS OF NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH
CAROLINA...AND GEORGIA. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THIS
MORNING...AND NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. THE LOW IS
BEING MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL
BE AVAILABLE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW MORNING...IF
NECESSARY.
INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICES. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN ALSO BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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thanks for the heads up and seems for now it's a waiting game.
great pic of john hope, thanks hurricaneguy
watching it on invest and have seen models... pretty amazing as it's the beginning of may
-------------------- http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Hmm IMHO What we have out there is now already a subtropical storm, but not yet named, and may not be until post-season reanalysis. But... thinking, as others have opined, that if it holds at it's current intensity and structure - or, improves some more - not only is recon a sure bet, but so would be the naming, by noon Wednesday. For whatever it's worth, the system meets the basic definition of a subtropical storm already. Andrea works for me!
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madmumbler
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Well, at least our westerly sea breeze finally kicked up -- I can actually SEE clear, blue skies outside without a hint of smoke.
What do the sea breezes do to a system like this? Will it just barrel through them, do they steer it, or do nothing, etc.?
And any ideas what to expect if this gets into the GOM?
-------------------- Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.
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Lamar-Plant City
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Loc: Plant City, Florida
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Looking at Savannah radar, there is some SOLID rain bands headed into there in the next 6 hours or so and they are growing as they near the coast.....looks MUCH more impressive than it did this morning. This storm seems to be ramping up as far as the rain and banding go. I just hope the ridge in that high pushes it far enough south to bring solid moisture into central florida. The smoke is choking me!! it may not get the NAME of a tropical system, but those along the coast in its immediate past better make the same preparations as if there was a strong TS headed their way....ESPECIALLY if they are in mobiles!!
-------------------- If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
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Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
better make the same preparations as if there was a strong TS headed their way....ESPECIALLY if they are in mobiles!!
That is actually some good advice. I do not really believe there is a lot of merit is "arguing" about whether or not this is or is not tropical, subtropical or just a 'storm', the fact remains that it *is* a storm and has the potential to cause damage to the unprepared. Those along the coast, especially, should always take storms, no matter what their classifications or names or lack thereof, seriously and prepare as if it was a tropical cyclone capable of damaging their property or causing them or their family harm.
-------------------- Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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vineyardsaker
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Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
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I am looking out of the window on the Turnbull Bay Creek (in New Smyrna Beach, south of Daytona) and the tide is higher than it has been in many months. We had, alas, almost no rain in Volusia County (all the wet stuff passed north, south and southwest of us) and now this amazing tide (at least a full foot higher than usual). Could there be a storm surge effect from this system?
Current conditions here are very windy but sunny. Great - cool weather. I wish I was sailing...
Yesterday night the entire county was stinking of smoke because of the many brush fires here. Can we hope for some good rain from this system?
How much of a storm should we prepare for?
Cheers,
VS
-------------------- Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma, Ian (eyewall), Nicole, Helene
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Ricreig
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Quote:
How much of a storm should we prepare for?
Far be it for me to provide that kind of advice....but.... I rather doubt your location is in real danger other than more of what you are seeing now. That said, you would be prudent to keep touch with your local official weather sources, and of course, keep your eye on the information that can be gleaned through this board as well. Obviously, your first source is the . The operative word is 'prepared', not just for this storm, for all of them.
-------------------- Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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A quick look at the latest visible imagery shows the system looks to be getting better organised with increasing convection now popping up, and wrapping closer to the centre. Could we see Andrea before recon goes out??
-------------------- Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Lamar-Plant City
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Loc: Plant City, Florida
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Quote:
I am looking out of the window on the Turnbull Bay Creek (in New Smyrna Beach, south of Daytona) and the tide is higher than it has been in many months. We had, alas, almost no rain in Volusia County (all the wet stuff passed north, south and southwest of us) and now this amazing tide (at least a full foot higher than usual). Could there be a storm surge effect from this system?
Current conditions here are very windy but sunny. Great - cool weather. I wish I was sailing...
Yesterday night the entire county was stinking of smoke because of the many brush fires here. Can we hope for some good rain from this system?
How much of a storm should we prepare for?
Cheers,
VS
on the question of a storm surge....that may not be what to worry about, but I just saw a news reports (Channel 13 in Tampa) of massive beach erosion all the way down in Jupiter which is northern Palm Beach county. They showed a boat house leaning toward the water and reported 100 feet of beach lost in some places. If you are on the coast, keep an eye on the sand under your house and the surf working its way toward you.
-------------------- If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
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vineyardsaker
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Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
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Quote:
Quote:
How much of a storm should we prepare for?
Far be it for me to provide that kind of advice....but.... I rather doubt your location is in real danger other than more of what you are seeing now.
Oh, I was not worried about any danger from this one, rather I was *hopeful* that this system would deliver plenty of water on Volusia county, but in this case should I worry about a possible storm surge effect from combined rainfall and a surge?
Could it be that I am already observing a surge?
-------------------- Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma, Ian (eyewall), Nicole, Helene
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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru
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Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
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Quote:
If you are on the coast, keep an eye on the sand under your house and the surf working its way toward you.
no, I will be fine from any beach erosion, we are off the bay which itself is off the Intercoastal River. But flooding is a real possibility.
However, the rest of New Smyrna is in huge danger I suppose, as our beachside has yet to recover from the battering it took from a chunk of in 2004 which broke of and sent huge waves which really messed up our beaches. For a while it looked like New Smyrna Beach would be renamed New Smyrna Shores, but then we got some of it back, but there is still plenty of sand missing.
When I arrived in New Smyrna, in 2002, it had what I thought were the most beautiful beaches on the entire Atlantic coast of Florida, but now they have shrunk by a lot. I dread to think at what our beaches will look like if we get even more erosion.
-------------------- Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma, Ian (eyewall), Nicole, Helene
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Lamar-Plant City
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For New Smyrna, I wouldn't THINK that you would get any major storm surge with the storm in this location. In fact, if it continues westward, you may begin to see the water recede a bit when the wind shifts to the west. The beaches are gonna still get battered by pretty good waves, but storm surge is usually worst on the north and northwest side of a westward moving storm.
-------------------- If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
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nc_wx_watcher
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Has the "Low" shifted track? is it moving North East now or what direction is it going in?
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Has the "Low" shifted track? is it moving North East now or what direction is it going in?
Looks like it's moving due northwest to me.
Edit: Looks now like the image just jumped from one frame to the next. The actual LLC is still moving due west.
-------------------- Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Tue May 08 2007 07:06 PM)
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nc_wx_watcher
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Wanted to check in before i hit the sack so is our low maintaining strength, weakening, or getting stronger? What's going on out there with it and why?
Edited by MikeC (Tue May 08 2007 09:18 PM)
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cieldumort
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GFDL has been run on the system, and takes it to high-end TS/ virtually minimal hurricane strength before making landfall and weakening. is often a bit generous with new systems, so I would not put all my eggs in that basket, but it does suggest that at least some potential for an intensifying storm does exist. Really, this *is* already a subtropical storm by all reasonable academic measures. Whether names it or not, is another story. Perhaps they only add it post-season. My own opinion is naming now does a greater public service. Regardless of what it's called or not called, current effects are very similar to an offshore TS coming onshore, but perhaps not quite as wet, and without as much risk of serious damage.
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MikeC
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The system is getting a bit better organized, but there still lacks any real convection around the center. It's just going to run out of time I think, before hitting land in Georgia. So Andrea or not really depends on what state the system is in next morning.
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