bamffl
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 20
Loc: Tampa, FL
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Maybe I'm just getting jaded or something, but it's May 31st and we already have people talking like there's something big on the horizon. I originally came here a few years ago (but only registered a couple ago, I think) and was very impressed with the analysis and discourse here. To be honest, the vast majority of the discussions are way over my head (with respect to the wx side) but I always had a good time skimming the posts. And once in a while I'd see a name that I trusted that would boil down the previous long technical post into a few short sentences which was *way* cool. Generally the "heavies" on the board do the same thing too, which is very much appreciated.
Okay, so what's my B*tch? Even I, an admitted wx idiot (but an afficionado) know that not every system or *potential* system is going to be a big deal. I've personally learned the names to trust and the ones to take with a grain of salt, but I'd imagine it'd be a daunting task for a newb to get on here and learn not to panic when someone throws out a prediction with nothing to back it up.
Sorry guys, I'm venting a little but it's a bit early in the season for doom and gloom. Well reasoned opinions are one thing, but gut feelings and storm-wishing need to go in the Tarot forum.
That said, I *DO* hope West-Central Florida gets a dousing this weekend, but I'm not going to take the seals off my bomb shelter or safe room. I also pledge to donate to CFCH again this year if we get rain this weekend. ;-)
Cheers!
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Excellent comment about the 'believability factor' facing a new site User - I'll give this some thought...
ED
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audienceofone
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 19
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I can understand completely what you're saying, but I do think that people can easily go lax after a below average 2006. I think the early storms and discussion are at least a good kick in the shorts to make sure people are preparing themselves for the possibility of the big one. I agree that every storm should not be labeled as such, especially by educated individuals, but people in the area should be prepared as if every storm carried the potential to be the worst of the year. Good comment though on the possibility of frightening people for no reason. People shouldn't be worried, just aware.
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"I can see from your zombie stare that you don't understand technical talk. Let me try it in a language I call, 'Liberal Arts Major.' It's blue."
2007 forecast as of 5-1-07, 16/9/5
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bamffl
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 20
Loc: Tampa, FL
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@audienceofone:
I *absolutely* agree about being prepared for each and every season. Every year we make sure we have everything packed in a big chest. It goes back to my military days and having a deployment bag. Something you can grab and know that everything you need is in it. My problem wasn't with preparedness, rather it was with spinning up every storm as if it would become something it won't. The problem I see with that, IMHO, is that if newer members come on here and stress out at (some) of the alarmist reactions to low-risk storms, they'll eventually get numbed. I think there's huge value in giving the *appropriate* amount of attention and respect to each storm, and I believe that there's an enormous downside to treating every storm as a cat 5. I'm obviously exaggerating a bit, but you get my point.
Anyway, it sounds like we're on the same page. I'm just happy to get some much needed rain.
Cheers!
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
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In response to the comment about some things being way over your head wx-wise, if that's the case with anything I (or even another person) says, please feel free to ask for clarification within the thread -- so everyone can learn -- or via PM if you think it's nothing significant. We're more than happy to help you all learn by passing along our knowledge and, at least for myself, despite my best efforts the terminology and weatherspeak I used isn't always on a level that everyone can understand. Please let me know when that's the case! 
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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CoconutCandy
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Posts: 245
Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii
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>> " ...we already have people talking like there's something big on the horizon."
I've been reading these forums extensively the past week or so, and IMHO, no one, really, that I can see, was "talking like there's something big on the horizon."
A lot of discussion on whether the area of disturbed weather in the SW Caribbean would develop into a tropical or sub-tropical storm. But no one was talking like it was "something big on the horizon". Just alot of excitement and interest that we should have a possibly developing system to watch so early in the season.
>> " ... a bit early in the season for doom and gloom."
And no one, *at all*, was talking 'doom and gloom'. Quite the opposite: Most were saying that this (developing storm situation) could be a very good thing for parched Florida and maybe even put out the fires. Can you quote me a single posting were someone was talking of 'doom and gloom' ??
>> Well reasoned opinions are one thing, but gut feelings and storm-wishing need to go in the Tarot forum."
Per the forum rules:
- Wishcasting and alarmist posts are prohibited. Gut feeling posts without any explanation are not allowed on the news talkbacks, they will be moved to the forecast lounge. Alarmist posts will be graveyarded.
Again, I didn't see anything in the realm of 'Wishcasting", other than wishing Florida gets a good rain.
>> " ... I'd imagine it'd be a daunting task for a newb to get on here and learn not to panic when someone throws out a prediction with nothing to back it up."
Ditto the above forum rules regarding wishcasting and alarmist postings. Besides, there is a very noticable disclaimer at the bottom of each page:
"Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources."
Anyone who reads something 'alarmist' (prohibited) in these posts and goes into a 'panic', without even so much as viewing the local news, or checking 's bulletins, etc., is very shallow person, news-wise.
Please don't take this as a personal attack, but what's with your sexist avatar? Is that really appropriate for these forums?
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bamffl
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 20
Loc: Tampa, FL
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CC, I tried to find the post that initially triggered my post, but unfortunately I was unable to find it. It wasn't on the main "Barry" thread, but I still didn't find it when I went looking for it. In any event, I see that you're relatively new here (or at least newly registered) so I think as the season goes on you'll start to see the types of posts I'm talking about. There's really very little doubt that some of the posters on here spin every system up. You'll see...
Apparently I hit a nerve or came off wrong with you. If you took my post as a personal attack, that certainly wasn't the intention. If that's the way you took it, please accept my apologies. For the record, you weren't the one I was referencing. ;-)
As for the avatar, it's a long story. I didn't think it was sexist or inappropriate, but if *even one* of the mods wants to PM me, I'd be more than happy to change it if there's even the *slightest* reason to do so.
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audienceofone
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 19
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I do agree that we're on the same page about being prepared and such. As earlier stated though, this site is filled with weather enthusiasts and hobbyists. People get excited, especially with so much activity so early in the season. Everyone wants to be the first to notice something that nobody else picked up on and forecast the track more accurately. I think this kind of excitement about forecasting and improving our own techniques differs greatly from a doom and gloom approach. I think the mods on the site to a fabulous job of removing material that has no basis or reason. At the very least, they place it in the appropriate forum and anyone browsing those forums is responsible for understanding the content they are subjecting themselves to. I do think that this thread has reminded the mods of the possibility of panic from certain topics though, so thank you for that. Now it's up to the mods to do their part in continuing to keep the content appropriate.
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"I can see from your zombie stare that you don't understand technical talk. Let me try it in a language I call, 'Liberal Arts Major.' It's blue."
2007 forecast as of 5-1-07, 16/9/5
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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No, a reminder to the Mods was not really necessary. We anticipate it, expect it, and it always happens every year - and the Mods here are all seasoned and handle those circumstances quite well.
Just like anything else in life, the real task is learning who to put your faith in and who to disregard. We have a partial solution that I will be implementing soon.
Cheers,
ED
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CoconutCandy
User
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Posts: 245
Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii
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>> CC, I tried to find the post that initially triggered my post, but unfortunately I was unable to find it. It wasn't on the main "Barry" thread, but I still didn't find it when I went looking for it.
Thanks for making the effort to look for it. I didn't realize that it was a specific post that 'triggered'; I just thought you were talking about everyone's buzz in general.
>> In any event, I see that you're relatively new here (or at least newly registered) so I think as the season goes on you'll start to see the types of posts I'm talking about. There's really very little doubt that some of the posters on here spin every system up. You'll see...
Yup. I'll bet I'll see alot of it, especially when the 'canes start coming, from what you and others have mentioned.
>> Apparently I hit a nerve or came off wrong with you. If you took my post as a personal attack, that certainly wasn't the intention. If that's the way you took it, please accept my apologies. For the record, you weren't the one I was referencing. ;-)
Thanks for your assurances, and apologies accepted, but not necessary. Your original post in this thread was not taken personally; I just thought that you were over-reacting to the postings on Barry in general. Again, I didn't realize it was a specific post you were refering to. MY apologies to you on that one!
>> As for the avatar, it's a long story. I didn't think it was sexist or inappropriate ...
Sorry you took exception with what I said or implied. I now regret saying it at all. My heartfelt apologies to you on that 'bad'.
I would have PM'ed you these sentiments, but since you replied to me, I thought I'd reply to you and 'clear the air' all around. Thanks for listening.
Moving right along ......
>> To be honest, the vast majority of the discussions are way over my head (with respect to the wx side) but I always had a good time skimming the posts.
>>>> (Clark's Response) In response to the comment about some things being way over your head wx-wise, if that's the case with anything I (or even another person) says, please feel free to ask for clarification within the thread -- so everyone can learn -- or via PM if you think it's nothing significant. We're more than happy to help you all learn by passing along our knowledge and, at least for myself, despite my best efforts the terminology and weatherspeak I used isn't always on a level that everyone can understand. Please let me know when that's the case!
Nice response; really shows Clark cares about everyone. However, I don't think every discussion by the meteorologists should be 'boiled down' to simplified terms "on a level that everyone can understand." Alot of folks in these forums, I can imagine, like reading these very insightful long-winded descriptions with much meteorological knowledge imparted.
And it's just *perfect*, it seems to me, that the 'trusted heavies' should then follow up and provide that simplified discussion that *everyone* can understand. You see: It's the best of both worlds! Everyone can have their curosities quenched, even the technically inclined and other meteorologists, and we seem to have quite a few of those, from what I've seen so far.
So please, Clark and the others, keep the techie discussions coming! You're doing a great job. I'm learning alot, already. These forums are great! Can you say 'EduTainment" ?
I'm pretty jazzed up about joining up and becoming a member, as you maybe can tell from my prolific postings, and look forward to making new friends here and sharing with everyone my takes on EastPac and CenPac storms this season from my Hawaiian perspective. (Check out "Alvin Regenerating ??" in the "other basins" forum.)
And, as a former Coconut Grove resident, (hence my ScreenName) I have more than a passing interest in the storms in that part of the world, too; and I'll chime in when I might have something to add or questions I'd like to have answered by those 'in the know'.
For example, can anyone reply about *what I was* that I was noticing clearly rotating thru southern Georgia in the last post under the "Re: Barry Conditions in Your Area" thread? I'd be interested in hearing some meteorologists take on my observations.
Thanks to all. Really happy to be part of these way-cool forums. Hats off to all the folks and mods and contributors that make all this possible.
Many Mahalos from Hawaii - CoconutCandy
"Rules ?!! Hell, there are no rules here! -- We're trying to accomplish something!"
- Thomas Edison, during an interview, when asked what 'rules' he uses to run his invention factory.
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madmumbler
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
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One thing I would appreciate is when one of the mets (and yes, I REALLY do appreciate their expertise and willingness to spend time here with us) puts up a really "met-speak" post (there's one up now in the current talkback thread) and posts a BUNCH of techno-weather-terms that leave me wondering if they're even speaking English, I wish at the end of their post they would summarize it in "plain English."
For example, after they get done talking about mesowhatsis impacting with boundary lines and floohahs and whatnot for five or ten paragraphs, to boil it down at the end and say, "The bottom line is _____."
I appreciate that they're helping. But I'm a reasonably intelligent person (I write software tutorials for crying out loud) and by the time I get done reading one of those, I feel like a moron.
I can go onto the HPC or and read techno-babble-weather-speak (and still feel like a moron), but it would be nice if here we could also get a Cliff Notes version. *LOL*
Again, I'm NOT griping that they took the time to put out a well-thought (I'm assuming it's well-thought -- with all the jargon I honestly don't know if it is or not) technical posting. I'm glad they did. But if they could add an extra sentence or two at the end to say, "This means ___." Or, "This means don't worry." Or, "...And this is a good thing." Or whatever. Sometimes I'll read a technical post and have NO clue if what they just posted is a good or bad thing.
Or...is it just me? *LOL* 
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Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.
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Ricreig
User
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
Again, I'm NOT griping that they took the time to put out a well-thought (I'm assuming it's well-thought -- with all the jargon I honestly don't know if it is or not) technical posting. I'm glad they did. But if they could add an extra sentence or two at the end to say, "This means ___." Or, "This means don't worry." Or, "...And this is a good thing." Or whatever. Sometimes I'll read a technical post and have NO clue if what they just posted is a good or bad thing.
<grin>
Well, in the main page there is a 'General Info' section on the left side that has quite a few useful definitions, however one thing you could do would be to compose a list of terms you still don't understand and send them to the author (Clark, Ed, et al) in a PM and I betcha the General info section would get updated so we all would have the terms for future reference. .... but I do like your 'super summary' mode suggestion at the end of your post also.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I'm not seeing a link to this page. I know it's there... but I can't find it.
(First line under 'CONTENT' - just scroll down when you get there - ED)
This is new for 2007. A flhurricane Wiki.
Check it out and bookmark it.
http://flhurricane.com/wiki/
Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Jun 06 2007 09:51 PM)
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