swimaway19
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 32
Loc: Safety Harbor, FL
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NWS posted this a few minutes ago, strong cells moving through SE FL
"BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1107 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.
UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
AT 1105 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
POSSIBLE TORNADO OVER CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...OR ABOUT 15 MILES
NORTHWEST OF HOMESTEAD...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.
THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
RURAL CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY
RURAL NORTHERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY
THIS STORM WILL LIKELY CROSS HIGHWAY 41 BY 1130 PM."
Edited by swimaway19 (Fri Jun 01 2007 11:27 PM)
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Bev
Weather Guru
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Posts: 132
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ...
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Tampa Bay 10 meteorologist Dick Fletcher predicting 3-6 inches of rain for the Tampa Bay area and storm surge of 3-5 feet. Wouldn't surprise me, we've had 1.3 inches already in Cortez, S. of Tampa and it just started coming down hard again as I type. Localized coastal flooding is also predicted.
This is a good start to the season, perhaps this TS will serve to remind people to stock up, make plans, and prepare for what is supposed to be a very active season. It's harder to get into hurricane mode when the sun is shining and we're in the middle of a drought.
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Survived Charley at Cat 4 under a staircase. Won't do that again. I watch SW Florida and Abaco primarily.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Actually alot did speculate it had a good chance.. me included. I stated last night recon will check it out and there was a good chance it should be Barry..but it was up to the data the recon showed.Barry I still feel will be south of the s landfall from Ft Myers-just north of Tampa Bay (Pasco) The storm is not purely tropical anymore...its last breathe was this evening....it should hold its own or strengthen more..but as a extra-tropical baroclinic low...as i feel its been transforming now. Still nonetheless....winds of 50-60mph near the landfall and squalls later on Saturday especially over S florida and eastern florida with the S and SW flow. Tornados are likely south of I-4 with a slight chance north. Rainfall amounts will range from near 1-2 inches in N central florida...to 6-8 inches in parts of S florida and along the west coast to TampaBay.
This was a nice start to the hurricane season...and florida needed this rainfall.
scott
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madmumbler
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
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I'm on the Cape Haze peninsula in w. Charlotte county. I'm guessing a good 10 kn steady breeze at least, with gusts a lot higher. It's heavy overcast. My son was supposed to have a track meet this morning in Tampa, and I'm not driving up there in this. Especially with that area that looks like it's moving into Tampa right now.
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Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.
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Ronn
User
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Posts: 115
Loc: Seminole, FL
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Barry is now an system, although the will probably maintain the tropical designation until landfall for the sake of public awareness. The center of circulation is stretching out SW to NE and most of the heaviest rain is in a single band along the west coast of Florida northeast of the center.
*Surface circulation is no longer defined at 9:00am.
Edited by Ronn (Sat Jun 02 2007 09:04 AM)
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charlottefl
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 94
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Pressure here in Port Charlotte is 995.8mb. is reporting the MCP on Barry as 997.
Just thought it was interesting to note. I know a lot of times they estimate MCP so that
may be what the deal is. It's calm almost no wind.
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ChessieStorm
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 49
Loc: Spring Hill, Fla. (Hernando C...
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In looking at the Tampa Radar loop it looks like two centers swirling out there. One is "Barry" near Sarasota moving northeast and the other is out in the Gulf about 100 miles off Hernando/Citrus County. Is the second one the mid or upper level low that moved into the western Gulf on Thursday that is pushing Barry along?
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allan
Weather Master
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Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
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Quote:
Barry is now an system, although the will probably maintain the tropical designation until landfall for the sake of public awareness. The center of circulation is stretching out SW to NE and most of the heaviest rain is in a single band along the west coast of Florida northeast of the center.
*Surface circulation is no longer defined at 9:00am.
Nope not yet, he's still got some good flare ups near the center before making landfall... I still say there's an outside chance of him gaining 60 mph. winds if the convection could blow up more. He's still at least Sub-tropical.
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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madmumbler
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
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TWC said a while ago that the center was down near Sarasota...um...what's his name... I can't remember the meteorologist's name.
He pointed out that about an hour ago.
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Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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It looks to me, based upon the Tampa radar loop, that the actual LLC of what is left of Barry is just offshore, and moving up the coastline, north of Tampa. Either that, of the LLC is due north of Tampa, onshore. The thing is so disorganized now that I can't determine which quasi-spin I'm seeing is really what is left of the LLC.
If I go to the Tallahassee radar I see what appears to be a broad circulation moving onshore SSE of Perry. In the end it's really not important, because the whole area is getting drenched with much-needed rain. Those of us west of Panama City are getting hung out to dry, though.
Edit: 11am advisory confirms position of the now-downgraded TD Barry as north of Tampa, onshore.
All watches and warnings (other than tornados, of course) have been discontinued.
Edit2: Interesting bit from the discussion.. Barry and Barbara made landfall within about an hour of each other.
Any chance that the remnants of Barbara could sneak into the Bay of Campeche and reform?
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Sat Jun 02 2007 10:51 AM)
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ChessieStorm
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 49
Loc: Spring Hill, Fla. (Hernando C...
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I think the LLC went ashore near Sarasota near 10:30 or so. There wasn't much to it.
The other feature you're seeing is probably that low that entered the Gulf on Thursday off of Texas and Mexico.
Right now the low out there now has shifted winds to the southwest here. If Barry had been more organized we would have a northeast wind since he went in south of here, but that didn't happen.
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HanKFranK
User
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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barry's center became elongated in the early morning hours and it is steadily undergoing transition. the deep convection bursting (maybe due to increased friction at the coast) this morning probably helped stay any itchy trigger fingers at the to call it .. recon still shows it as weak warm-cored for now. my folks are taking a beach trip to pawley's island, and it just figures that after weeks of dry, warm (but not really hot) weather an ex-tropical storm is going to shellack them on day one. barry's legacy will be mostly favorable, with a decent rainfall blanketing some of the most parched areas in the southeast, and a quick advance precluding the kinds of problems a slow moving tropical storm can cause. might be a few severe cells in the right front quad with daytime heating and the clear dry air intrusion into the core across north florida today, but probably nothing else of note. the folks on the carolina beaches will need to be wary in the surf, though.
barbara is fairly weak and coming in with little momentum... i greatly doubt that anything of the center will survive across central america. the system is fairly small and the threat of severe rainfall should also be limited. the guys already noted a tilt with height, so it'll probably just decouple and wash out fairly quickly. the conditions on the atlantic side would be fairly favorable, but there isn't a strong convergence point or disturbance there to take advantage of things, as barry took most of the good low-level dynamics out with it.
next chance of anything interesting is the next northward moisture surge from the western caribbean, scheduled for about mid-month, which the keeps insisting will happen run-to-run. considering it's overall long-range performance with barry, i'd say there's a reasonable chance we'll be watching another feature of interest around about june 13-15.
the pattern is de-amplifying, so there isn't much else of a chance of more tropical development.
HF 1611z02june
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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru
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Posts: 152
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
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its actually *sunny* in New Smyrna Beach, Volusia County, and we still would need some good downpours of rain. Looks to me from here that Barry is fizzling out...
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Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma, Ian (eyewall), Nicole, Helene, Milton
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Im not going to add more then what Hank just added. Barry came ashore near TampaBay-Sarasota as a TD. Weakened alittle faster due to some dry air. Infact...most were hoping for more rain today from this. Barry peaked out yesterday evening and then took in some drier air from the western gulf..and also started its transition to extra-tropical.
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nc_wx_watcher
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 14
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I know Barry is gonna be extra tropical when it gets to SC/NC and it's moving fast but could it possibly strengthen even as an E.T. system. I'm in NC and my local news website has this about the waters off of our coasts. see the attached file. [image]http://wect.com/Global/story.asp?S=5227117[/image]
Edited by nc_wx_watcher (Sat Jun 02 2007 01:17 PM)
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cieldumort
Moderator
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Posts: 2484
Loc: Austin, Tx
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The official forecast calls for it to increase to a 40 knot -fully- storm as it scoots northeast
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/1500Z 28.0N 82.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 30.5N 81.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 03/1200Z 33.5N 79.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 04/0000Z 36.0N 76.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 04/1200Z 39.5N 73.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 05/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER LOW
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/PROENZA
(LINK)
5-Day "Cone" Link
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nc_wx_watcher
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 14
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As of right now at 4pm where exactly is the "center" of Barry located? I'm tracking the strm (or at least calling myself tracking it).
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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The new (likely final?) advisory on Barry will be out within the hour, so that will tell you exactly where its remnant low is. On the visible satellite I see a spin offshore, but on the radar it looks like it's nearing the Jacksonville area.
Edit: Advisory was indeed the final one on now-Extratropical storm Barry, and it was indeed located near Jacksonville.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Sat Jun 02 2007 05:49 PM)
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Well, Barry did what we expected in the end, and that's bring some needed rains to parts of SE Georgia and the Florida peninsula. General totals will be in the 2-3" range with a few spots closer to 5-6", it appears, without really any flooding concerns. All in all, a needed soaking rain.
Looking back on it, out of all of the available model guidance, the did the best with this one. It was largely consistent on a track near or just north of Tampa throughout most of its runs over the past several days. The was probably next best; not nearly as consistent but did better toward landfall. It also showed the mid-level and surface circulations being decoupled from one another, which actually did happen. Every time convection flared, a new mid-level center would get shot off to the north while the surface circulation turned more northeasterly. Most of the rains in my neck of the woods came from one of the mid-level centers, in fact. Good call by the there, even in the face of some signs to the contrary at times.
The didn't do awful with this system, but it had the wrong idea in keeping the storm vertically coherent in the face of the strong vertical shear across the Gulf. If the system had stayed upright and vertically coherent, it likely would have made landfall near where the suggested -- further north and west -- but alas, it did not. Not sure what part of the analyses you can chalk that up to, but I'm guessing to a tendency to overdo warm core structure nowadays.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
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Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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Well, here in Atlanta it seems we have been right on the edge of the rain all day...but not a drop here in the city. The air has just been so bone dry the precip isn't making it all the way down. At least the fires in SE GA will be put out by Barry so we wont wake up to the "smoke fog" thats been in the air for the past couple of weeks. I'm sure several locations will be thankful for that. Hats off to the firefighters in FL/GA. This has to be a blessing to them
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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