********* PREFACE ************
The following post was written overnight (Hawaii time), while 'exAlvin' was getting it's act together. Now I see, as of 4AM Hawaii time (10 AM East coast time), that the has bumped up the winds again, now to 30 Kts. Doesn't that qualify as an automatic TD status, if I remember? Or does the 'T-Number' have to be a certain value? Please inform.
Also, in Miami, after pretty much writing it off their last few EastPac outlooks, now say that it has some potential for further development. It'll be interesting to see what kind of spin they put on it, if it does regenerate. And interesting to see what Alvin will be up to the next few days, now that it seemingly has a new lease on life.
The following is my original post ...
Morning All,
As a resident of Hawaii, (but a former Coconut Grove, Florida resident too), during hurricane season, I'm always checking out the Central and Eastern Pacific for storm development. A good number of storms that form in the EASTPAC sometimes cross over into the Central Pacific (140 degrees west) and become the responsibility for the CPHC (Central Pacific Hurricane Center), a team of skilled meteorologists, seperate from the team in Miami.
Well, as it sometimes happens, a storm (TS or hurricane) that attains a name in the eastern pacific, but then is downgraded to a remnant low after it's life as a storm due to shear or whatever will sometimes, when moving further west in the 'trade flow', find a more favorable environment and warmer SST and will undergo a blowup of deep convection near the remnant LLCC (low level circulation center), and persist long enough to again begin to lower the pressure near the center, and Viola! We have a REGENERATED storm.
If it's still in the Eastpac, as exAlvin is, when the upgrade to cyclone status occurs, it's given it's eastpac name again; if regeneration occurs after it's crossed over 140 into the Central pacific, it is assigned a new, Hawaiian name.
Such appears to be the case this morning with ex-Alvin, which has been slowly drifting westward for days now since being sheared and downgraded to a remnant low several days ago, but is now re-developing deep convection near it's center.
A really nice convective flareup is occuring, in both the NW and SE quads (as I write this), with convective banding beginning to wrap around the south semi-circle, with cloud top temps as low as -80 and -90 degrees.
And, most importantly, it appears to be in a much more favorable environment than a few days ago, with a nice diffluent outflow channel developing towards the NE and outflow occuring towards the south, as well. It essence, it appears to be moving under a nice upper-level anti-cyclone. (Please download the attached graphic.) Without that, I doubt we'd be seeing the convective flareup we're seeing. However, regeneration, if it does occur, could be short lived, as the shear ahead of it seems to be stronger, from the SW direction.
Although has dropped ex-Alvin as a 'floater' on their satellite imagery, is still carrying it, an even bumped up the winds from 20 kts to 25 kts a few hours ago. Just a little more deepening due to the intense, extremely cold thunderstorms near the LLCC, and we just might have a regenerated Tropical Depression Alvin. ALVIN! (Remember Alvin and the Chipmonks? LOL.)
Actually, the visible loop yesterday afternoon depicted another, weaker vorticity swirl a hundred miles towards the west, that might just get 'entrained' into exAlvin and the 2 LLCC's will merge into one. Rather unlikely, but not out of the realm of possibilities. It's that blob of convection to the west, but in the daylight loops, you'd see a little LLCC, spinning very noticably.
Even though the , issuing the Tropical Weather Outlook for the Eastpac, still seems to feel the T-Storms remain disorganized, and that " ... regeneration seems unlikely", I hazard to speculate that, *if* the current trends continue, we just might see regeneration to depression or storm status again.
Then again, I've seen many times where we have a huge convective bursting at night, only to fizzle with the dawning of the new day. And sometimes the thunderstorms will 'fight' with each other, instead of organizing, and effectively snuff each other out, resulting in a huge mass of debris cirrus drifting away from the scene of the previous nights' 'fight'. Like the Wicked Witch of the West melting down to nothing. LOL. This is entirely possible, too.
Just keep in mind that ex-Alvin is about 5 hours *behind* east coast time, so if you're reading this, try to realize that while you're having breakfast there, the remnant low is entering it's greatest 'flareup' time. This just might be interesting.
I'm *not* trying to make a big deal out of this; I just think it's interesting. And, if I may indulge in a bit if 'wishcasting', I hope it somehow ends up making a visit to Hawaii as a low-end tropical storm or depression or even an extra-juicey remnant low.
Sometimes, a remnant low, passing through the islands, will come under an upper level trough and T-Storms will break out and we'll have a good rain event from the low's passage.
That is exactly the kind of situation we need. Hawaii is in a drought, too, especially Maui and the Big Island. The recent moderate El Nino episode of this past winter (now totally gone, heading for a La Nina), has left the Islands with way below normal annual rainfall, as is typical in Hawaii with El Nino. An increased risk of Hurricanes, especially late season ones, (ie: Iwa in '82 and Iniki in '92), but always a much dryer winter in the Islands, otherwise.
As an aside, we too recently had Hurricane Preparedness Week drills, and there has been a new study and model simulation of what would happen if (perish the thought!) a cat 4 goes right into Pearl Harbor. I totally cringe at the thought of it. For those interested in viewing the article from the Honolulu Adveriser, dated May 22nd, 2007, here is the link:
http://www.honoluluadvertiser.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=2007705220345
Please understand that I'm not trying to be alarmist here. And, as a 25 years plus resident, it's hard to envision such a catastrophy, but as a responsible state and local government and citizenry, we must prepare, in as much as possible, for just such an unlikely(?) event.
Try Google-ing 'Iniki'. It happened on Kaua'i, a mere 90 miles away. Had it been O'ahu ... I hate to think. But just as New Orleans' luck had finally run out, someday too, O'ahu will not be so lucky. I just hope it doesn't happen for another 500 years!
We've been so blessed in the past. Let's just hope and pray that that 'tradition' will continue. But let's all be prepared too, if the unthinkable should happen. Sorry to be so 'heavy', but it's rational and pragmatic.
So Alvin, if you're 'listening', please follow Barry's good example and please bring us some beneficial rains!
PS: Major Cyclone 'Gonu' in the Arabian Sea is looking mighty powerful. But thankfully, it'll be down to a cat 1 by the time it makes landfall. Have a peek at:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
Let's hope we don't have too many of these monsters roaming the Gulf, Caribbean and Atlantic this season!
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