Hmmm ... Interesting. While it's been so quiet in the Atlantic basin recently, things are beginning to pick up in the East / Central / West Pacific, largely attributed, to what I've just recently learned, as the cycle. (Intraseasonal Tropical Oscillation Cycle). Thanks to Ed for the tipoff. Always learning something new!
For you Mets and Teckie types, who love reading and learning, here's a few excellent links I've discovered to give you a good grounder why the Atlantic basin has been so quiet (and the EastPac getting active) since Barry's departure.
http://envam1.env.uea.ac.uk/mjo.html <--- Well written article with excellent animations!
Climate Prediction Center's FAQ re: the phenomena
Quite topical for the 'Other Basins' forum, too, helping to put things in a larger perspective.
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Now Then: Invest 94E, a very broad and large, elongated low pressure area oriented SW to NE has been smoldering the last few days a few hundred miles SW of Baja with multiple LLC's embedded within the overall convective mass.
Finally, Sunday night (Hawaii time) the deepest convection consolidated near the strongest LLC and the began issuing advisories on newly formed TD-4E, but none of the models intensified it to TS strength.
During the daylight hours, as is often typical with weak systems, the convection died down considerably and it looked like TD-4E was quickly headed towards it last advisory.
But again tonight (Hawaii time), during the maximum diurnal convective cycle, very deep, cold convection has again flared up, with tight wrapping around the NW semi-circle. It appears to me that TD-4E is, perhaps, 'maxing out' before moving over cooler SST's and increasingly hostile upper winds later on Tuesday.
The thunderstorms are still building as I write (2:30am Hawaii time, 8:30am Florida time), with convective turret penetrations colder than -80 showing up on IR satellite images.
We'll just have to wait and see if deep convection is capable of lowering pressures enough and increasing the winds just enough to make it to TS (named) status before beginning it's dissipation later Tuesday and into Wednesday.
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Of much greater significance, recently upgraded Typhoon Man-Yi is heading NW and on it's way to a forecasted 115 Kt strength in the direction of the island of Naha, on it's way towards a recurvature just parallel to, and SE of, Japan. Of course, it's eventual track will change to some degree in the coming days and the folks in Japan may well have a good blow with their first typhoon of the season.
Here's a link to 's (latest) 1Km Color Enhanced IR image.
MAN-YI
Pretty impressive already. And, although it's inner convection hasn't yet (as I write this) closed off to form a complete eyewall, the 37 GHz passive Microwave sensor on the F-14 satellite clearly depicts an 'eyewall-like' structure forming, which relates to water and moisture content lower in the storms' structure.
This pic is 'time-sensitive', so I added it as an attachment to this post. Click the attachment link at the top of the post to view this pretty cool microwave image.
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And Finally. An EastPac Invest that crossed over 140W into the Central Pacific last night is now making a bee-line towards the Big Island of Hawaii.
Although no longer classified as an invest, and no TC development is expected of it, thankfully, it may very well bring some much needed rains to the parched Big Island.
Warm Aloha from Honolulu, - Norm
(Off-topic material removed)
Edited by danielw (Wed Jul 11 2007 11:41 PM)
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