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Models are starting to notice trof in the Gulf. Could become yet another TD-like system this weekend, even if not named. #txwx
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 333 (Nicholas) , Major: 349 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1403 (Michael) Major: 1403 (Michael)

General Discussion >> The Tropics Today

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Weather Analyst

Reged: Sat
Posts: 355
Loc: Southeast, FL
Bay of campeche
      #75904 - Tue Jul 24 2007 07:23 PM

Hey Anyone Checking out what coming up from mexico into the bay of campeche looks like a well defined surface trough to me. Seems to have origonated on land. There is also that tropical wave now entering the picture there, but seems like there is sheer over it, but if it drops it wouldent suprise me to see something come of it. whats evryone's else take on it i havent checked out any models or surface maps today but im gonna go check em out now.

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Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Bay of campeche [Re: Robert]
      #75908 - Wed Jul 25 2007 01:56 AM

I noticed several of the tropical models were indicating an "area of disturbed weather", for lack of a better phrase, in the NW Yucatan / Bay of Campeche.
Through out the next several days. Last nights models were indicating the possibility of two separate 'systems'.
The present system near the Yucatan Peninsula and a second system was progged to move 'over' Lower Mexico from the E Pacific.

I haven't checked the updates. But the pressures in the BOC area, last check, were near 1013mb or sea level pressure.

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Reged: Mon
Posts: 2135
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Bay of campeche [Re: danielw]
      #75909 - Wed Jul 25 2007 05:10 AM

I don't have time to go into all of my reasoning right now - but a readers digest of some of it - very juicy air, very warm and some fairly deeply warm SSTs, reduced shear to under 25 knots over a very large area and under 15 in a considerable area, a little difluence, a noticeable perturbation if not gentle cyclonic turning in and around 850mb.. and maybe lower, generally supportive sea level pressures, etc. This bubbling-up has many potential makings of a new Invest on the way, should current trends continue for a while longer, and frankly, I find the couple of model runs turning this into a tropical cyclone or near-tropical cyclone entirely plausible.

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Veteran Storm Chaser

Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Bay of campeche [Re: cieldumort]
      #75912 - Wed Jul 25 2007 10:32 AM

watching... but it seems to be moving too fast to really do anything.

it needs to sit and spin vs being blown off too fast to develop but worth watching

got nothing better to do may as well watch it.. looks almost like something you would expect to see there in June


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