CoconutCandy
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Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii
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Even as the Atlantic Basic is starting to percolate with rapidly developing Invest 99L and the christening of Tropical Storm Chantel just moments ago, so too, are the Pacific Basins becoming increasingly active.
Typhoon USAGI, which formed just north of the Marianas and might well be the Regenerated Cosme Remnant from the EastPac after it crossed over the International Date Line and into warmer waters, continues to intensify as it closes in on Japan.
Instead of recurving off towards the NE before making landfall in Japan, as earlier forecast, it now seems to be headed for a landfall in extreme SW Japan as a powerful 115 Kt. typhoon, and perhaps even affecting South Korea.
The weakness in the ridge forecasted several days ago was not as pronounced as earlier modeled, and each successive run showed Usagis' track more and more to the left, bringing it over mainland Japan. At least Tokyo and Kyoto are now no longer expected to feel the worst, as earlier anticipated.
Judging from several good consecutive overpasses from microwave imaging satellites, Usagi appears to be undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, before making it's bid to become a major typhoon as it churns on it's way towards SW Japan. You may view the *attachment* (above) for an excellent microwave view of the eyewall contracting as it continues to rapidly intensify.
As I speculated in my last post, the 'potent' appearance of what was then a minimal tropical storm, with it's very impressive feature was, indeed, the precursor of an 'explosive deepening' cyclone, just as I had surmised.
It took Usage just 6 (!) hours in strengthening from a 35 Kt. Tropical Storm to a 65 Kt. Typhoon. It's now up to 90 Kts., on its' way to a forecasted maximum of 120 Kts., which I suspect might be still a bit conservative. You know how tricky intensity forecasting can be at times; one of the real remaining challenges in predicting hurricanes / typhoons.
For the latest info / images / track of what could well become a Major Typhoon, please view the website at ...
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom.../track_vis/dmsp
... and, of course, the (Joint Typhoon Warning Center), now located in Honolulu, at ...
https://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc.php ...
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PS: For the latest NEWS on Usagi, I suggest going to Google News (use the 'News' link on the main Google page) and typing 'Typhoon Usagi' as your keywords. I'm sure you'll continue to get lots! more hits in the coming days.)
Here's a few, for starters:
http://www.reuters.com/article/environmentNews/idUST901920070731
http://www.estripes.com/article.asp?section=104&article=47762 (interesting military perspective)
http://www.saipantribune.com/newsstory.aspx?newsID=70874&cat=1
and http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/T296815.htm
... but keep checking for the latest news as Usagi nears landfall and the aftermath.
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PSS: Latest developments before I sign off: Usagi was just upgraded to 105 Kts. Apparently, the eyewall replacement cycle, mentioned above, has completed and the newly-organized inner core convective ring (eyewall) has just substantially lowered the minimum central pressure sufficiently to cause an additional 15 Kt. increase in sustained winds.
(View the attachment above, taken a few hours before eyewall replacement completed. Note the new eyewall contracting and replacing the old one.)
At this rate, I don't think that 'Super-Typhoon' strength is out of the question, before all is said and done.
Keep an eye on Powerful Usagi to see what happens in Japan and, perhaps, South Korea as well. 
Edited by CoconutCandy (Wed Aug 01 2007 12:03 PM)
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FLFrench
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Thank you for the information. My parents are living in Seoul and are visiting Japan for the next few weeks and I was having a hard time finding information on Usagi. My daughter will be traveling to Tokyo to visit with them on August 6th but from what I can tell Usagi should be on it's merry way before she is due to fly in. Again thanks for the links.
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CoconutCandy
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Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii
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Quick update on Typhoon USAGI. It appears the cyclone has reached it's maximum intensity of 120 Kts. (140 mph), or of Catagory 4 strength, and has fully matured. The satellite presentation is quite dramatic. The once large, cloud-filled eye has totally cleared out and contracted smaller, a sign of rapid strengthening.
You may follow along on the Navel Research Labs' great Tropical Cyclone website at:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom.../track_vis/dmsp
... for the latest track info and a huge selection of still and animated satellite imagery, for those not yet familiar with this great site.
The track has been shifted slightly to the right and it now looks like it will make landfall *just* to the left of the channel *between* the islands of Kyushu and Shikoku, for those of you familiar with the layout of the islands.
Please view the provided *attachment* for an excellent view of Japan from the space shuttle, with the major islands labeled and the track of Usegi shown clearly in red.
As this 'Cat 4' typhoon approaches these islands, it's most dangerous part, the infamous 'right-front quadrant' with its' 120 Kt. winds, will be generating a tremendous storm surge into the numerous bays and waterways that are just to the north of Shikoku Island.
A quick view of the attached photo and you will realize what a huge problem this will create for this area.
A -like storm surge will surely ensue in some areas if Usagi stays on it's projected path (recurving red arrow) and its' potent right-front quad traverses the channel (Blue letter 'C' in the photo) between Kyushu and Shikoku, pushing a huge surge into the inland waterways and bays and onto the coastlines.
I'm sure you'll hear a lot more about Usagi and its' destruction and misery inflicted on Japan in the international news in the coming days, before all is said and done. This will be significant, even for Japan, a country very well prepared for the destructive effects of major typhoons.
As an aside, after doing a little research using 's amazing website and other sources, I've confirmed what I had suspected in my last post.
Typhoon Usegi is, indeed, the Regenerated Hurricane Cosme remnant circulation, after it crossed over the dateline and into much warmer waters and reduced shear, which were factors in it's earlier demise as it approached and passed south of the Hawaiian Islands 10 or so days ago. Very Interesting. I've seen this happen more than a few times over the years. And sometimes waves originating off the coast of Africa make it all the way into the Eastern or even the Central Pacific before cyclogenesis occurs. The various basins are more connected than you might think. Food for thought. 
More on Usegi later. Be sure to check Google News (or whatever) for the latest scoop on what is likely to be a *very nasty* typhoon for southern Japan !!
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