MikeC
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8:35 AM EDT Aug 2007 Update
Tropical Depression #5 is looking much better organized this morning, recon flights are scheduled to go out and take readings on this system. Those in Texas will want to watch this system.
6:55 AM EDT 15 Aug 2007 Update
Dean is beginning to enter an area with slightly more favorable shear conditions and gradually increasing water temperatures, so the intensity forecast shows it growing in strength, slowly, and steadily throughout the next day or two.
TD#5 is still rather ragged, but starting to become more organized. It still may become a Tropical Storm before landfall in south Texas.
More to come later,
11:45 PM EDT 14 Aug 2007 Update
The disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico has been upgraded to TD#5 this evening. Tropical Storm Watches are now up from Freeport, Texas southward to Rio San Fernando, Mexico. The 's intensity forecast takes the system to Tropical Storm intensity by landfall late Thursday. If it becomes a tropical storm, the name would be Erin. Meanwhile, Dean is slowly becoming better organized in the Central Atlantic, now with winds of 50mph. Slow strengthening is forecast for the next day or so before more substantial strengthening as it nears the Lesser Antilles late in the week.
9:45 PM EDT 14 Aug 2007 Update
Tropical Depression #5 has formed in the Gulf of Mexico, the first advisories should begin at 11PM EDT.
Tropical Storm Warnings/Watches are likely at 11PM EDT (10PM CDT) for the southern Texas and northern Mexican coastlines.
8:30 PM EDT 14 Aug 2007 Update
91L in the Gulf still is a bit too disorganized to be called a depression, but may be later tonight. It'll be a rainmaker at least, but it is running out of room to intensify, thankfully, all that much. Recon is flying through it again tonight, so we should know soon.
Dean's models have shifted back west, and the model consensus now is back to being a Caribbean storm, and the agrees. Those in the Leewards need to be prepared for this system.
During the day Dean got torn up a bit by the shear, but the low level circulation center of it remained solid, and poised to restrengthen, even tonight it's firing off a bit. This scatterometer image below indicates how solid the center of circulation is.
3:24 PM EDT 14 Aug 2007 Update
91L doesn't seem to be organized enough yet for the hurricane hunters to issue a center fix, or what is referred to as a Vortex message. Winds are rough 20-25MPH around what could be considered the low level circulation. It will mostly be a judgement call at the to issue advisories for a depression or not at 5PM. It may not be until later tonight.
3:16 PM EDT 14 Aug 2007 Update
Recon is in 90L (The system in the Gulf) right now. We should know more soon.
Original Update
and other agencies have decided to upgrade Tropical Depression 4 to Tropical Storm Dean.
Advisories on Dean will likely begin at 11AM EDT
More to come soon....
Earlier Updates
8:50 AM EDT 14 Aug 2007 Update
Caribbean disturbance (90L) is still getting its act together and may become a depression later today, recon is going out later today as well.
TD#4 is a bit better looking this morning, and models are trending back west a bit, once again increasing chances that the storm could affect the leeward islands.
Beyond that, still too early to tell, but it would be prudent to watch it.
It is very likely we will see TD#4 become a Tropical Storm late today, but right now numbers (Satellite windspeed estimates) do not support a tropical storm.
More to come later.
2:45 AM EDT 14 Aug 2007 Update
Neither system has developed much more since yesterday, although potential for 91L to develop today (the 14th) is still there. TD#4's convection hasn't been around the center of circulation lately, so it's further development is in check. The forecast track has shifted slightly north, reducing the potential impact in the Leeward islands, but the errors are still large.
Beyond the islands, it's still much too early to call. The best case would still be a curve away from land, and it is looking less likely this system will go into the Caribbean now. Still those in the area will want to watch because of the possibility for track errors at that range.
We will continue watching the progress on it.
91 didn't have enough last night to make it into a depression or storm, but it is looking better on satellite in the early morning hours. Chances are still high that it will develop sometime later today. Track thoughts haven't changed much on it either.
1:20 PM EDT Update
A Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert has been issued for 91L in the gulf, meaning a depression or Tropical Storm is likely to form there within 24 hours.
11AM EDT Update
Tropical Depression Four advisories are out, the is currently projecting a track through the Leeward Islands as a category 1/2 hurricane later in the week. However, the margin of error is pretty high this far out, but those in those islands should monitor this system accordingly.
Tropical Storm Dean is expected to form from TD#4 later tonight or tomorrow. (This may change to Erin depending on the status of the Gulf System)
Over in Hawaii Hurricane Flossie is projected to move south of the Islands, but a Hurricane Watch is up for the Big Island of Hawaii. More information on Flossie at and in this thread.
To reiterate as well for the system in the gulf, those along the western coast of the Gulf of Mexico should pay attention to the system developing in the Gulf (91L), it could form into a depression or more later today or early tomorrow.
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allan
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Sounds fair enough.. and if i'm not looking at things, I think I am looking at a small hole in that ball of convection. May just be me.. anyways models are in better agreement that this is a Florida or East Coast storm as I predicted when this whole thing started. Of course lots of changes can happen as the days go by and we have about a few days to watch before we worry. So lets see what happens with Dean as the days go by.
-------------------- Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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Random Chaos
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Loc: Maryland
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Dvorak estaimtes are:
2.5 for Dean
1.0 for 91L
2.5 is the cut off for Tropical Storm. This will be part of why Dean was upgraded to a Tropical Storm.
As for 91L, it sure looks to be organizing on satellite. We're at the half point between numbers - I wonder if the will upgrade it to TD 05 at 11.
Now to enter the real of real speculation:
Short term models show Dean taking a more northward drift. But the 7-9 day shows it still hitting the US. The question is whether it breaks through the high pressure ridge to it's north and goes fish spinning, or whether that ridge keeps it south and forces it into land.
Almost all the intensity models are bringing Dean to Category 3 within 5 days. Now that the system is a TS, we should have better model outputs starting in 6-12 hours, which will give us better guidance.
--RC
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OUSHAWN
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I really don't expect for to upgrade the Gulf system until has put it as NONAME. Ususally is a good indicator of what the will do next.
Shawn
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Beaumont, TX
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The system in the Gulf does look better on satellite. Good thing for us. We need rain.
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Rabbit
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i dont think theyre going to upgrade 91L just yet--there is a recon going out to investigate it at about 2pm today, they'll probably see what they find first
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hullphoto
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First posting here folks....As an avid weather observer of New England weather...and former NWS coop observer and skywarn spotter....Its pretty clear that with the extended track outlook and history of Cape verde storms..the East coast will have to watch this closely as we get into this weekend and next week. The seems that it is painting a doomsday scenerio for folks along the east coast...ie to Southern New England,earlier the took Dean into the Gulf of Mexico...Of course there will be there will be alot of model flipping here for the next 7-10 days with Dean and we need to see what transpires with his track and intensity. Will there be a weakness in the ridge of high pressure in the atlantic and advance far enough for Dean to worm his way up the East Coast..who knows...Its gonna get interesting here on the East Coast if the verifies!
Thanks for reading
Craig
hullphoto
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LisaC
Weather Watcher
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The model is very interesting indeed. Obviously without saying everyone needs to have their hurricane plan ready. Ft.Lauderdale Bob mentioned the Herbert's box in the previous thread I guess in the next 4 days we will have a better idea if Dean stays together.
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Random Chaos
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Loc: Maryland
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August storms that were near (within 400 miles) where TS Dean is now:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200704_climo.html
Other areas to watch:
Several models are developing a system just off Baja California in the Pacific. Also the wave following Dean some models are showing a chance of development.
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LisaC
Weather Watcher
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Quote:
August storms that were near (within 400 miles) where TS Dean is now:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200704_climo.html
That's a great statistical map. Now I hope Dean is gonna follow the fishspinner model and not the Andrew path
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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NHC didn't upgrade 91L, but they did say, "...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING."
They are waiting for aircraft reconnaissance.
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Steve H1
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Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Yes, I definitely don't like some of the models that I've seen for Dean. I certainly don't want to go through what we did for and Jeanne again. The models will be ping-ponging around with this storm, but the question will ultimately come down to whether there will be enough ridging in the western Atlantic to turn Dean back on a WNW track after it cuts through the islands or will the projected eastern trough stay through the week next week. The other option is if Dean stays far enuf south of the islands to remain unaffected by any weaknesss in the ridge or trof. I believe he will come toward the Greater Antilles and be in a position north of Hispaniola next week. But the key is, what is the setup to his north mid-week next week? We have a lot of time to watch this situation, but considering its the 2nd week of August I don't like the setup. If this was the second week of September, I would say this would be one for the upper east coast or the fish. Strangely enuf though, there have been numerous cold fronts coming through New England, and one is expected again on Monday. Maybe this can turn him away. We can hope
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Random Chaos
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Agreed.
Looking at the , it is showing Dean eroding the ridge as he powers through it, which doesn't make sense. Powerful hurricanes sometimes do power through, but generally prefer not to. As with most things in physics, things take the path of least energy, and pushing through a ridge is rarely a path of least energy.
The rest of the models keep Dean south of the ridge or right on the edge of the ridge, but don't have him cross the ridge. I think they make more logical sense, but there is no telling exactly how strong the ridge will be until we are closer, nor how strong Dean will be.
As long as the ridge stays intact and there is no ridging west of Dean, he's most likely to keep to the south of the ridge.
The next question is: toward the end of the period, how far west will the ridge extend? Will it allow Dean to swing north into the east coast, or will it keep Dean pushed south into Florida?
It is too far out to know any of this; it is all speculation based on the dynamical models.
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scottsvb
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Model runs change from run to run..never take 1 model and more then 1 model more then 3 days out. After that..its all speculation. 1 run might say east coast..next run will say Yucitan...and eigther or..they are many days out.
Any prediction right now is just guessing as the pattern changes and strengths of ridges..troughs upper lows pressures etc have to be aligned. Right now.. we are not 100% sure if this will hit the Leeward Islands or not..but will have a better idea after tonights 0z runs as it will then be less then 3 days out.
The Gulf system continues to be disorganized.. the recon might find winds over 30kt but right now its a elongated center of 1007mb. I would like to see a better center before I would upgrade this ..but I do feel it will become better organized this evening.
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Steve
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12z out to 204 hours (beginning of Day 9) has switched back to a southerly track and appears to be aiming for the Upper Texas Coast.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_204s.gif
This is just one of those storms that the models are having a hard time with the mid and upper levels (see scottsvb's post). We'll know more in a couple of days based on what's out there and where. JMO
Steve
-------------------- MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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javlin
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I have been looking at a little vortice out in front of Dean @ 11.5N 48w it's been moving due W for days now with Dean always behind it.Dean is still falling below the 's forcast points while yet I am sure still in the cone just the S side.The fact that Dean is moving so fast and the clouds are being pushed to the W or even slightly WSW I would think the Southerly track is maybe more likily.If you use the Central Atl VIS sat and impose the forcast points and look out front of Dean you will see what I am looking at.The track is starting to remind me of in some always to the S of the guidence.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html
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AdvAutoBob
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Loc: Cape Coral, FL
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FWIW,
I received an email from a friend of mine 3 days ago (he gets them from a family member at NOAA and asked me not to reveal their identity - sorry for the cloak and dagger nonsense), in which the model(s) pointed at a Florida east coast event on or around the 17-18. From the look of it, it was an early run, so I took it with a grain of salt. I'm now watching this storm with interest, even though I'm on the other side of the state (west coast of Florida).
Not trying to sound alarmist, wishcasting, etc.... just telling you what I was told.
-------------------- "Chance favors the prepared mind"
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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OK, recon is now enroute to 91L sending back regular HDOBS at the moment. These dont show much as the plane is flying at 25'000 feet, but will descend as it gets nearer. Satellite shows a circulation, but whether it classifies as a TD is open to interpretation, i have seen better looking disturbances not classified, but we'll soon see
-------------------- Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Kissimmee
Unregistered
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The probability of a hurricane/storm staying on a near westward track from Africa to Texas makes what some of the longer range models are spitting out at this time, suspect at best. As a storm gets stronger they tend to move in a more polar direction. If they stay weak, they tend to move more E-W. Of course throw in a few troughs, ridges, etc into the mix and it's anyones guess,but overall the stronger storms tend to move more polar. So by early next week we should have a better feel for this.
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native
Weather Guru
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Loc: SE Florida
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Quote:
FWIW,
I received an email from a friend of mine 3 days ago (he gets them from a family member at NOAA and asked me not to reveal their identity - sorry for the cloak and dagger nonsense), in which the model(s) pointed at a Florida east coast event on or around the 17-18. From the look of it, it was an early run, so I took it with a grain of salt. I'm now watching this storm with interest, even though I'm on the other side of the state (west coast of Florida).
Not trying to sound alarmist, wishcasting, etc.... just telling you what I was told.
Bob - I am not a moderater here and I rarely post. But, in this instance I felt compelled to post and reply.
Why in the world would you post that here when the information is not only inaccurate but purely speculative as as well. Just because a friend of yours who has an anonymous family member at NOAA who's divulged some info does not mean it needs to be posted here "for our information" especially if it's obviously dated and inaccurate.
I know this sounds harsh but, Bob there are many many people who lurk on this site and take its contents to heart. Some lay person reading your post or worse yet, only reading half your post would be sent off to nearest shelter screaming.
As everyone here has devined, it's still way too far off to do anything but speculate and make sure we stress that in our posts.
Mods - please feel free to flog me for this post.
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