CategoryFive
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 4
Loc: On Louisiana's vanishing coast
|
|
Frequent lurker...infrequent poster...as a curious observer of tropical weather, here is a question I have always had......Why do thunderstorms (the heavy summertime afternoon variety so frequent in the South are what I was thinking of) flare up and are caused by the heating of the day yet thunderstorms associated with tropical systems appear to flare up (and thus strengthen) the systems mainly at night?
To the lay person it would appear that the heating of the day would help with thunderstorm activity in a tropical system but that is obviously not the case.
Why the difference? Thanks. Love the site !
--------------------
USC can't three peat...they didn't win it all in 2003 !!
|
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
|
|
well recon is up to above 5,000ft now.. (5,154ft) highest flight level winds i have seen are From 98° at 42 knots
(From the E at ~ 48.3 mph) at 01:44:30Z. They were directly due east of Corpus Christi... Looks to about to turn north along the coast... They were about 20-30 miles off the beach. Pressure around 1009mb at the surface.
--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
|
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
|
|
Dean remains a tropical storm - barely. Winds are up to 70mph, pressure is down to 991.
Hurricane watches have been issued for the
following locations by their respective governments...St. Lucia...
Martinique...Guadeloupe and its dependencies...Saba...and St.
Eustatius. The government of the Netherlands Antilles
has issued a tropical storm watch for St. Maarten.
--------------------
Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
|
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
|
|
hmm... must got an error in my last recon data on TS Erin  ... i got a pressure reading of 995.1 mb at the surface... must of decoded wrong? at about 0220z around 27.13N 96.23W.... the obs was taken was 84 miles (134 km) to the ESE (120°) from Corpus Christi, TX, USA... Opps! i think i see what i did wrong in the spreadsheet... trying to clean it up... HDOB are kinda tricky, along w/Vortex data.
Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Aug 16 2007 02:55 AM)
|
Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 365
|
|
Re: Twizted Sizter's post re: Hebert box, in which he or she wrote: "9 out of 10 that pass thru impact S Fl...maybe Dean will be that 1 that misses if he passes thru it. Andrew & Betsy didn't pass thru & who can forget them? As an interesting aside based on the earlier spaghetti models they went thru the 2nd Hebert Box. The 2nd box only applies to a developing or moving storm before Oct 1.
Charley '04, "04, & '05 were our most recent ones."
There is much confusion about the stastical meaning of the Hebert box (really, 2 boxes), but regarding the first box that you are discussing, it is absolutely NOT true that 9 out of 10 storms that pass through that box impact South Florida. It may be true that 9 out of 10 strong hurricanes that impact South Florida during August and September pass through that box (although I think the number is somewhat lower), but that does not mean that 9 out of 10 that pass through the box impact South Florida. In fact, I'm almost certain that fewer than half - maybe significantly fewer than 1/2 - that pass through th box do NOT affect South Florida.
I hope that clears that up a bit.
-Brad
|
charlottefl
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 94
|
|
I think it is important to remember that the atmosphere around these storms are very complex. And we don't
totally understand every factor that affects the steering of a hurricane. And if that wasn't enough these factors
are constantly changing, Models have greatly improved the track of hurricanes over time but I think the general
rule applies that it's better to just stay tuned to the . Having said all that I believe we will have a better feel for
where Dean is going once they are able to fly the NOAA P-3's into the storm and feed the info gathered into the models.
|
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
|
|
Quote:
hmm... must got an error in my last recon data... i got a pressure reading of 995.1 mb at the surface... must of decoded wrong? at about 0220z
Where did you look at a surface pressure reading? There's no recon into Dean yet.
--------------------
Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
|
craigm
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 327
Loc: Palm City, Florida
|
|
Looks like the ridge fills in completely 72 hrs out keeping Dean moving W to WNW. Not sure what is in the pipeline that would break this down. I think you all would agree that model consensus is remarkable this far out. Having said that I'll probably be boarding up in a week on the east coast of FL. 'not LOL'
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW.gif
--------------------
Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
Edited by craigm (Thu Aug 16 2007 03:12 AM)
|
twizted sizter
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 184
|
|
That post I made was based on the link Beach posted to Hurricane City..based on Heberts research...very long list of major hurricanes that passed thru & impacted S Fl.
Like Clark said earlier in this era of technology the boxes are not viewed in the same they may have once been.
Personally I find it an interesting ananomly & will be watching to see if Dean passes thru either one of them.
Click on the link & read about it..Hurricane City is a good site with alot of information.
Edit to add...BTW model plot has the 1st box highlighted. The plots can be found on the main page or by clicking the map of Dean on the left under the Current Storms heading.
Edited by twizted sizter (Thu Aug 16 2007 03:40 AM)
|
Valandil
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 14
Loc: Hamburg, Germany
|
|
As of now we have the first Hurricane of the season, upgraded Dean with a preasure of 987mbar.
In the IR and WV satelite image one can see what appearst to be an eye that is forming, convetion looks impressive.
I would thing he'd be slowing down now but that doesn't seem to be the case. They put the velocity at 24mph, quite fast I'd say...
Also I found some nice readings from Bouy 41040 It is a bit north of the center.
Vala
Edited by Valandil (Thu Aug 16 2007 10:32 AM)
|
danielw
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
|
|
Using the two above shots, and the lat/ long shot from the same site.
I'm estimating the Eye of Dean is at 10 miles diameter... this estimate was double checked using the longitude lines on the 'bd-l' sat shot.
A 10 mile Eye on a 75 mph Storm???
Recon is in for a surprise and a bumpy ride when the arrive this afternoon. Actually I think everyone might be a bit surprised... myself included.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/bd-l.jpg
Edited by danielw (Thu Aug 16 2007 10:54 AM)
|
GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
|
|
For entertainment purposes only, When you click on this link:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html
There appears to be a little boy, head arms and feet holding a bucket with the water ing out over his head from the outflow of the storm. This is achieved by the color intensities in the colored imagery. In a time of stress this is just a little chuckle.
--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
|
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
|
|
Quote:
A 10 mile Eye on a 75 mph Storm???
Recon is in for a surprise and a bumpy ride when the arrive this afternoon. Actually I think everyone might be a bit surprised... myself included.
Good morning Dan (and everyone else)... Actually the 8am advisory just upped the winds officially to 80mph. But still, a 10 mile eye for a cat 2 hurricane is unheard of, I believe, let alone for a cat 1 storm.
I will be a bit surprised by the recon info this afternoon - if it finds anything less than a strong Cat 2 or a Cat 3 hurricane. Given how rapidly Dean *appears* to be strengthening - from looking at the IR loop and the size of the eye - the islands are in for much more than they might have initially anticipated. It's interesting, given Dean's small size, that just about ALL of the Lesser Antilles chain is under a tropical system watch or warning - be it a hurricane warning or watch, or a tropical storm warning or watch. Then again, looking at that IR loop, Dean is growing in size, too, to the south.
--------------------
Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
|
MikeC
Admin
Reged:
Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
Hmm, there may be a weakness toward the end of the run in the ridge, the latest model run isn't all that great for those in the Gulf, hopefully that isn't a trend.
It seems the Lesser Antilles may get more storm than they bargained for, however. I'm still thinking intensity is underestimated right now.
|
Kal
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 50
Loc: Space Coast
|
|
Over the past twenty-four hours or so there has been considerable agreement amongst the various models concerning the forecast track for Dean. This morning I was pointed over to this loop which seems to indicate that the is now a dissenting outlier. I was wondering if one of our Mets or more experienced storm trackers could speak to what the sees (or thinks it sees) that would prompt such a drastic swing from the Yucatan towards the Central Gulf Coast. Old data? Bad data? New data? Just curious what the rationale is.
Edited by Kal (Thu Aug 16 2007 12:47 PM)
|
LisaC
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 39
|
|
silly question, when is there gonna be recon into Dean?
|
Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
|
|
Ok, I wake up to Dean with a 10 mile eye clearly visible on IR. shows it clearly too. I am unused to a system below category two with a clear and discernable eye on IR, and it was visible while Dean was still a Tropical Storm.
Based on this, I think Dean has the possibility to rapidly strengthen over the next day. It is extremely well organized for a Cat 1 storm.
As for the , it doesn't surprise me that we are now seeing a late period northward curve. The steering guidance for deeper storms has a weaker ridge to the north. As Dean deepens, it will be able to make the northward turn sooner as the steering currents will turn northward at an earlier point.
Take a look at the steering currents for a TS strength system (990mb) vs a strong hurricane (930-950mb). Remember that those graphics are current, not forcast in several days. Now, looking at those graphics, you can see the steering currents circle tighter to the ridge for deeper storms, allowing a northward curve earlier. Most models do not take the deepening of the storm into account when determining track, and thus the more westerly motion indicated in most models.
Lisa: Good question. hasn't updated their recon schedule in two days. According to the discussion it said sometime this afternoon, but when?
|
7 Deadly Zins
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 12
Loc: Nashville, TN
|
|
In 1980 hurricane Allen moved into the E. Carib. at 59.1 and 13.6 with a 10 mile wide eye, moving at 20 knots, with 110 knot winds. Allen was a couple weeks earlier than Dean, so water temps may have been a little cooler. Dean is getting some dry air on its west side mixing in, so intensification may not match Allens, but not out of the question.
Recon is scheduled to arrive in Dean at 18Z. Should have a vortex message around 2 - 3pm EST.
GFDL does show the N. Gulf move but bends it back toward Texas at the end with a ridge building westward.
Tonights 0z will have the Gulfstream 4 data in it's initialzation. Have to see if any major track changes occur. Gulfstream 4 mission runs at 18Z also.
|
Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 489
Loc:
|
|
Seems to be a bit of a paradox that is moving the storm more poleward, but keeping it a weaker system.
Doesn't it usually work the other way, with stronger storms like Dean moving north?
--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
|
NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
|
|
That is because the is seeing a trof of low pressure coming down from west Texas around day 5-6 when Dean is forcast to be near the Yucatan. Dean doesnt need to be a cat 5 to be steered north at that point, however I also think the is way low on intensity at that point.
--------------------
Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
