Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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off for a day and missed hearing about hope. got it on the bastardi page this morning.. john hope was the guy i grew up watching, before good info became available on computers. his expertise and authority in the tropics was unquestionable, but only mentioning that would seem a cheat. you always got the feeling from listening to him that he was a good person.. something that doesnt always come across with tv personalities. i respected the man. God rest him.
on a less mournful note, convection in the western gulf, southeast atlantic pretty intense. low to mid level twist apparent with both.. both moving ene. ahead of the front approaching from the north, the wind has shifted to out of the west, setting up good SFC convergence down there with the easterlies. maybe with the front approaching and the pressure falls (pretty low here) the complex will get the old baroclinic kick. i give it about 1 in 5 of deepening into something noteworthy.
after this current system goes down there will be a dying front splayed along the upper gulf, and a cutaway system drifting gulfward in texas early next week.. so some possibles down the road as well as the current interest. still low prospects though. june, to soon.
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Alex K
Unregistered
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First post this season. About the circulation forming-I don't really know what to say. While looking at the visible loop before you guys told me, I thought I saw a bit of forming circulation myself. However, I could be forcing myself to imagine a circulation.
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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NHC still have not issued a 530pm Outlook... odd!!
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Not only that, but we've gotten no reports from South Florida today. I'da been all over this if LA was getting hammered.
Steve
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Hello from South Florida. Been a rainy day here, 3-5 inches of rain in western Broward county where I live. Other than heavy rain on and off the conditions have been tame. No gusty winds and only a few rumbles of thunder. Radar this evening shows alot of heavy rain moving in from the gulf that will affect us on the southeast coast later tonight. Great board here, often lurk, first post.
Steve
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BabyCat
Weather Guru
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Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
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I'm in S. Florida (Broward County). My computer is not doing too well these days so i can't really investigate this weather pattern we are under.
It sure *feels* tropical and I am wondering if this pattern has a potential for development. The reports say no. Can anyone tell me what is out there in the NW Carribean?
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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I live in Key West, the power is out we have 40 mph gusts in t-storms which are barely grazing us. If they drift a little more east we're really in trouble. That's what's going on here.
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Greyman
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 32
Loc: Miami,Fla.
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Its funny that this post is named Tropical Stream because that is what I have in front of my house right now & more is on the way,rainfall estimates are now 7 to 8 inches in my neighborhood & other areas have recieved more since yesterday.I know this is not a storm or even a depression but I agree with others that have posted here today, it does feel very tropical.
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BabyCat
Weather Guru
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Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
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Have you seen anything on a loop?
Glad to hear it's not just me 'feeling' that!.
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Greyman
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 32
Loc: Miami,Fla.
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Hey BabyCat,its been a pretty rough day here in South Fla. from Key West all the way up here to Miami & Broward County,but it is just that low pressure trough that has been hanging around for days now,but appears tp be slowly moving out,there is no true LLC that I can see, but there are probably little circulations embedded in the convection,nothing that is going to develop any time soon,but it has been a gusty,rainy few days,especially today.
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BabyCat
Weather Guru
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Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
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Thanks for the info!
I did see the trough and I know that it's suppose to move out (south).
There's a break in the action right now so I think I'll go (swim) to the grocery store!
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Floridians. Nothing like a good old fashioned tropical day. We might be in for a little next week up this way. I'm giving props to Bastardi for recognizing the current setup over a week ago. He said the pattern would drop a storm out of the Rockies through TX and into the lower Mississippi Valley where a piece of it would cut off. That was completely outside of what any other source was giving. The complex is heading south through TX/OK even now - so far so good. If a ridge builds to the east and west of this upper low and associated convection, he pulled off a coup de grace. I have been in tune with the prediction since I live in the lower MS Valley. If he hits it, this was an excellent prognostication.
Steve
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Jeanine
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 36
Loc: Hollywood, FL
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Put those sunglasses on this a.m. it looks like we have a little bit of sun here in south Fl. After reading the weather report it does not look like it is going to last to long. Showers and thunderstorms expected again this afternoon.  Hopefully not as bad as it has been. Happy Fathers day to all of the dads out there.
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Joe
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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A look at models and NWS morning discussions shows central and possibly northern Florida getting in on some heavy rain. Theres been heavy rain over south Florida the last few days now this time further north. A strong short wave for this time of the year will drop out of texas into gulf of mexico tonight. By mon heavy rain will develop generally from fort myers and tampa. This looks likley considering its a strong upper level energy and not to mention rrq of jet and cool mid level temps adding to the fuel. NWS in tampa has already mention the possiblity of flood watches for this event. Looks like a wet couple of days.
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Yep, Joe, it's true. We may finally have some very, very heavy rain which will really be good for the drought situation.  I was also reading the NWS Melbourne discussion from earlier this morning and they also said that the upr disturbances could really beeff up the atomsphere. Very cool temps aloft, the disturbances riding over the peninsula, and good upper level support could get some strong storms going. Won't be Monday, though, because if I know how the weather here in Florida works, we really have to have some surface heating in order to get strong storms going. It can be different in strong El Nino's, but otherwise we have to have sun usually. Tuesday would have more sunshine and would perhaps be the better day for this.  Newest NWS Miami discussion also says one of the models (AVN I think) brings a tropical wave near S. Florida on 6/25. These things don't become classified usually considering it's June, but it's just interesting... 
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Joe
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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12z models still show a heavy/possible flooding situation for central florida, especially near west coast. AVN/ETA are in good agreement with NGM the lone man out. Looks as though will continue to see scattered showers and thunderstorms moving off eastern gulf through tonight. Then I expect more widespread heavy rain to form in afternoon and last through mon night. Tuesday looks similar. NWS didn't issue flood watches and are leaving that up to mid shift. I expect 1-3 inches generally with 4-5 in certain locales. After this round about we should return to a more typical afternoon thunderstorm pattern.
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Greyman
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 32
Loc: Miami,Fla.
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Hello everyone on , I hope your're having a great day,I just wanted to know,what does it take to get a few stars under my name,help me out here I've put up some very good posts & am willing to provide any helpfull info & have rated most of you with some stars. 
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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This board is very quiet considering there is a well defined and organising circulatioin off the coast of Louisianna / Mississippi! Convection is wrapping into the centre, with the bulk of the strongest convection immediately to the east and north of the centre, and then another area located to the south of the centre.It seems as if the system is heading to the east slowly, but i think it needs watching as it is so well defined!
Any thoughts?
Rich
StormWarn2000 IWN
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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This first system is liable to move ENE or NE into the FL Panhandle. We probably got .02" of rain out of it yesterday despite the heavy rainfall in TX and Western LA - it just fell apart. Of more concern to me is the potential setup of a ridge to the East and West of the Central Gulf Coast. Bastardi noted on his T.U. this morning that there is liable to be a fairly substantial piling up of moisture somewhere around the Yucatan Peninsula later this week due to an incredibly strong high (30.5) setting up off the mid-Atlantic Coast. This would mean a few days of strong SE/ESE/E winds across FL and into the Gulf. He made the suggestion that possibly the tropical wave moving into the Carribean (if anything) may be the catalyst to spark some development - if anything actually does want to develop.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Rich,
Don't worry about the circulation off of the Mississippi/Louisiana coast. It's not tropical, but it could produce a heck of a lot of rain. Here in Central Florida, we've had some pretty powerful storms rolling through in the last half an hour. Very heavy rain, excessive lighting (looks like some has been hiting ground, in the house we've had some lights glitching, thank god for a APC on the computer) and there has also been some wind gusts to about 30 or 35 MPh. There's more coming too. Looks like Tuesday could be even stormier than this as we could have even more radiational and surface heating with less debris cloudiness.
Could this weather mean trouble for Central Floridans? 
Nah!  I love this stuff!
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