dem05
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Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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I did get a message from a fellow poster that my post was confusing/ sounding greek in my post. If I got a bit to wordy, I do apologize. I think there will be a fair amount of weather to watch over the next 4 days...and I was trying to cover all the bases. Maybe I may have gone too far in trying doing that...But here are a few bullet points to try and simplfy. I will try to simplifyin the future.
- GOMex ULL is moving west at a good clip right now, porbably far enough west that the implications of it are waning for the moment right now.
- Any turn in path that would concern the Eastern Gulf (Florida and Alabama) would only occur in 48-60 hours (Between the Caymans and the Yucatan)...With an extreme unlikelihood of this ever happenning (I'd say 85% chance against is).
- Any turn toward the central gulf states would need to occur before 95 west. Also highly unlikely, but a little more possible that a turn in the eastern gulf.
- Excellent and ever persistant model agreement favors the western Gulf (Mexico and Texas), but there may still be some unanswered questions regarding the future of the Ridge and troughs in the mid latitudes...as well asthe ULL in the gulf and the Atlantic Ridge. Time will tell if the models really do have it right, but I think there are additional questions since the models seem to have an agreeable Hurricane forecast, yet have varying solutions for the mid latitude flow.
BottomLine: I am only rebellious slightly against the models becuase I expect there is still some small level of chance that Dean Could turn in 48+ hours. But the models have been going on toward the west for long enough that is is looking safer and safer for the eastern and central gulf at the moment. I hope this help to clear some things up, but you can PM me with questions if you would like.
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javlin
Weather Master
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Loc: Biloxi,MS
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I like it Dem you explain were at least I can see it a little better.There is one thing that has been bugging me all day is Dean's W side is flat but I also notice just now so is the E of our ULL ,so what gives here.It would seem to me that the weakest point in the ridge is directly behind the ULL?Also just how much area seperates a low and high pressure area?
the picture http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh3.html
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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New recon info (not a vortex)... 125 mph surface winds measured, and a pressure down to 916.
Well, I missed the vortex that Random Chaos posted below. So now the question, how strong IS Dean, really? 916-918 is Cat 5, but 125-135 winds based upon recon info so far.
-------------------- Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Sun Aug 19 2007 02:41 AM)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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New vortex recon:
730
URNT12 KNHC 190235
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 19/02:09:00Z
B. 16 deg 10 min N
071 deg 30 min W
C. 700 mb 2384 m
D. 93 kt
E. 219 deg 010 nm
F. 305 deg 092 kt
G. 220 deg 012 nm
H. 918 mb
I. 8 C/ 3050 m
J. 16 C/ 3049 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C25
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 0704A DEAN OB 18
REMNANTS OF INNER EYWALL E040/10/8
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 130KT NE QUAD 02:14:00 Z
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dem05
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Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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I've received a good question from one of our fellow posters...Thought I'd share the question and the response...
Question
I'm just curious....given that most/all people think there is ZERO chance of Dean turning within 48 hours... why do you rebel even slightly? I'm in the eastern gulf coast region... don't expect any impact from Dean at all, but I'm still watching it carefully because, well, it's a freak of nature if nothing else.
Response
I can answer that one...After you read, please take a look at my graphic, because it will give visual presentation. There is a ridge over the Baha Mexico Area that is trying to move west. The pacific trough has the Baha High basically stationary; even though it is pushing on the trough a bit....the base of the trough is to the west of it and is currently keeping it at bay. At the mid latitudes across the continental US, the jet stream, the ridges and the troughs are progressing along, but the southern extension of the jet stream over the pacific is causing the subtropical ridge over Mexico to stay put. I am concerned that this may...MAY cause a log jam in the subtropics and the upper level low over the gulf will eventually stall in the western gulf or over Texas/Mexico...If it stalls around 95 West, the flow in the eastern Gulf will be southerly and Dean will catch up to that (I only give it a 15% chance right now, and that may be very generous). Otherwise, there’s an upper low approaching Oregon and Northern California...It’s moving east and will pass above the ridge over Baha California. One of two things will happen here...More likely, it will curve toward to NE toward North Dakota and Minnesota. However, with the ridge in the middle states heading eastward and the Baha Ridge remaining stationary...it may have enough oomph to start a digging trough across Utah and Texas. That may have some interaction with the gulf ULL and draw it northward...Much like we are seeing with the ULL over the Atlantic that is being drawn up ahead of the jet stream trough off of the NE seaboard. That may increase a treat to the northern coast of TX and/or LA.
With that said...models are in decent agreement...and this is conjecture of some other unlikely possibilities...However, there is still a weak chance of changes and all should track Dean along the Gulf Coast
Edited by dem05 (Sun Aug 19 2007 04:39 AM)
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louisianatracker
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Loc: SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
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I have been a silent viewer for several years now. I trully appreciate all of the good info and opinions. My current question relates to the generally southward movement of the storms positon as it relates to the last forecast track. I have noticed this southward trend over the last couple of hours. (see link) Please advise as to how this movement may impact future guidance and how this may affect potential interactions with afforementioned ULL and ridge. I am somewhat encouraged that Southeast Louisiana is looking like it will feel minimal impacts if current forecast holds. However, I have good friends and interests on the island of Isla Mujeres, Mexico, which is in the Yucatan, just north of Cozumel. The island has had very bad luck as it relates to historic storms with extreme low pressure recorded. Ex: Gilbert 1988 and 2005. Do you think the southward movement is a wobble, or a temporary trend. Please advise...
web page
-------------------- I Survived Katrina Physically...I am Still working on the mental aspect! NEVER LET YOUR GUARD DOWN! BE PREPARED FOR THE WORST...It can happen anywhere!
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Clark
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I wouldn't worry about it right now -- these short-term wobbles occur quite frequently and can be manifest in anything from wobbles to circular oscillations about the main forecast path. Earlier, it did just the opposite as it wobbled north of the track for a couple of hours. If anything significant changes, we'll be among the first to let you know, but for now I wouldn't be too worried about these short-term wobbles.
-------------------- Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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Some rather impressive microwave imagery just in:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc07/ATL/04L.DEAN/tc_ssmis/91h/1degreeticks/full/Latest.html
Very strong internal structure, it appears.
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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru
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Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
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Has anyone been paying attention to the rotating system in the middle of the Atlantic? You can see it very well here on the water vapor loop. Is that another threat to the US?
-------------------- Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma, Ian (eyewall), Nicole
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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I wanted to repost a portion of the 11pm NHC Advisory (8-18-07):
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. AMOUNTS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA WITH MAXIMUM
TOTALS OF 10 INCHES. THE REMAINDER OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA
COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 7
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.
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Clark
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Quote:
Has anyone been paying attention to the rotating system in the middle of the Atlantic? You can see it very well here on the water vapor loop. Is that another threat to the US?
That's just an upper level low; nothing to worry about from a tropical standpoint whatsoever. It'll likely get caught by the trough over the northwestern Atlantic regardless.
-------------------- Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Some rather impressive microwave imagery just in:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc07/ATL/04L.DEAN/tc_ssmis/91h/1degreeticks/full/Latest.html
Very strong internal structure, it appears.
I do not understand what is going on with Dean. The pressure has reached the lowest levels, yet the winds have now gone down (to 145mph as of the 11pm advisory). The is clearly nearing completion, or from that image, it looks to be completed. My gut tells me that the 145mph wind reading is understated, and that if it has weakened, it will be very temporary, given the somewhat significant pressure drop (from 930 to 916-918). Throw in the diurnal maxima, and Dean has all the makings of a Cat 5 at any time now.
-------------------- Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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lunkerhunter
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Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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Hugh,
My take on Dean is that the pressure drop is the leading indicator of strength and the actual winds are not, i.e. the still isn't complete which is why the wind speeds are down. The pressure drop shows that Dean is gaining strength and will spin itself up again.
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lunkerhunter
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Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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"COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA."
doesn't this sound very low?
Why would Kingston, Jamaica receive 1/4 to 1/3 of what Miss. got from , especially with Dean tracking to the South side of the island?
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SkyWarn536A
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First time posting here, I was born and raised in Tampa Bay and I have always followed hurricanes. I am involved with amateur radio and skywarn. I am always looking for good websites with hurricane models/tracks/discussion so PM if you have any good ones. Only been hit directly once, and the was with the no name storm. Had to evacuate four other times though.
I think Dean will remain on the track at least until the Yucatan, I just know from following storms for so long that at that point sometimes storms have changes track, but with all the models I see in agreement for Mexico I would not bet against them. Godspeed to the people of Jamacia!
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GuppieGrouper
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Loc: Polk County, Florida
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It is relative to land mass, cloud saturation, and guessing. was out in the Gulf for days and the water was built up in walls or waves. Jaimaca and surrounding areas are in danger, but the major danger is from mountain run off rather than days of the storm sitting in one place and spinning. There are other geographic differences, but I can tell you that parts of Central Florida can receive 6 inches of rain in one afternoon thunderstorm, and although there will be urban street flooding until the runoff subsides, there is not really a lot of problems, because people have already adjusted. Even those silly pictures in Miami in the early rainy season only last about 2 hours at the most unless there are some serious storm drainage stopped up with fast food garbage bags and beer cans.
-------------------- God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
Edited by GuppieGrouper (Sun Aug 19 2007 03:13 AM)
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Clark
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Quote:
Quote:
Some rather impressive microwave imagery just in:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc07/ATL/04L.DEAN/tc_ssmis/91h/1degreeticks/full/Latest.html
Very strong internal structure, it appears.
I do not understand what is going on with Dean. The pressure has reached the lowest levels, yet the winds have now gone down (to 145mph as of the 11pm advisory). The is clearly nearing completion, or from that image, it looks to be completed. My gut tells me that the 145mph wind reading is understated, and that if it has weakened, it will be very temporary, given the somewhat significant pressure drop (from 930 to 916-918). Throw in the diurnal maxima, and Dean has all the makings of a Cat 5 at any time now.
When a storm has a dual eyewall structure, the wind field becomes somewhat "diluted," for lack of a better term. The wind profile becomes rather broad and flat while both eyewalls compete for energy. Eventually, the outer one takes over and significant deepening (both of pressure and winds) can occur. Truthfully, the deepening we've seen tonight during the of Dean's pressure is more the exception than the norm; usually the pressure will tend to rise somewhat during the eyewall cycles. Not sure why this hasn't happened with Dean, though my initial thoughts center on that warm water eddy it is passing very close to tonight.
-------------------- Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Truthfully, the deepening we've seen tonight during the of Dean's pressure is more the exception than the norm; usually the pressure will tend to rise somewhat during the eyewall cycles. Not sure why this hasn't happened with Dean, though my initial thoughts center on that warm water eddy it is passing very close to tonight.
That's what I was thinking concerning the pressure, and indeed the pressure in Dean did rise earlier during the , which is why when it began to plummet I figured the was completed, especially given some of the impressive IR images tonight. The real question I'm wondering about is what will happen with Dean once the finally is completed. Since the pressure is already so low, and the hurricane is passing very close to the warm eddy, will that make it more likely that an extremely rapid rise in intensity (wind speed) happens when the 'cane is done with its reorg? I'm feeling a bit of a sense of deja vu. experienced an extreme pressure drop without an increase in windspeeds - in fact the windspeed on the 11pm advisory for was 145mph, if my memory is correct - and then overnight, the bottom fell out - literally - and when the recon returned to the storm the next morning, the record books were rewritten. Can history repeat itself?
Edit: Woah... the latest IR image... and the latest water vapor image... is so odd. It's like much of the moisture in Dean just got sucked out of it. Cloud tops have warmed significantly, and seemingly suddenly. The fringes of Dean are now onshore in extreme southern Hispanola. Could interactions with land have had such a massive impact already?
IREVISED...I see what you are talking about on the GHCC looper...there is some cloudtop warming occuring at the moment, but I think you will see the get colder here pretty shortly. JK
-------------------- Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by wxman007 (Sun Aug 19 2007 03:50 AM)
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WeatherNut
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Most of the REALLY intense storms I've seen in the past usually have a much larger eye when they complete an . Thats when the bottom falls out as far as pressure goes. , , and other cat5 storms seemed to follow that trend. They were annular in nature I believe. I'm not seeing that kind of eyewall with Dean. It hasn't gotten much bigger during the s. The pressure thing is weird. I would think it would rise a bit before dropping like that. Is it possible this happened in the short time recon wasn't in the storm?
-------------------- Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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twizted sizter
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It does appear the is nearing completion as you said & coupled with the DMax I would not be surprised to see Dean reach Cat5 by the morning. Don't think it will be tonight. My understanding is it takes some time for the storm to "recover" if you will. Which would also explain the winds not coordinating with the pressure...it takes time for the winds to catch up to the decrease in pressure.
Dem5..I've enjoyed your thoughts on Dean. Some 14 hrs ago I noticed the trough over Georgia was stationary & a recent glance still appears so. Is that an insignificant or incorrect observation?
Like you I find the models a useful tool at times but it appears that since we have so many different players in determining the final destination of Dean that something is being missed or under/over analyzed by the models.
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