AmateurJohn
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 27
Loc: Highlands County, FL
|
|
I've been listening to the live feed from Jamaican Radio linked to in the first post in this thread. They just read an announcement that Air Jamaica has rescheduled two flights originally scheduled to leave Jamaica Sunday (one to JFK and one to Newark). These flights are now leaving tonight - Saturday night. Sounds like they want to get their equipment off the island as soon as possible.
|
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
|
|
Quote:
I expected the 5pm to not reflect any changes... because there's been no plane out there for a few hours... Last report from recon in the center had the multiple eyewalls.... but looking at all available sats i have.. this systems is very impressive right now...
Thanks for the clarification, I thought they had recon in their continuously with the storm being so powerful. I noticed just now in re-reading the advisory, though, that the pressure is an estimate. Well, when the next recon does go in (tonight, I assume?)... it won't be a pretty report, from the standpoint of the shear power of this thing from looking at it right now. The went by quicker than I expected, and for all intents and purposes, didn't weaken Dean at all. Now that it's apparently ended, it actually would surprise me if recon did not find a Cat 5. But, I said that this morning, and then the happened.
Poor Jamaica. It's still possible that Dean may skirt north or south of a direct hit on the island (and likely, I personally think), but if that does not happen.... yes, I think they are very wise to evacuate aircraft. There is still time, but it will run out very quickly before much longer, and if Dean does indeed strengthen, it will only make matters more urgent.
--------------------
Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Sat Aug 18 2007 08:50 PM)
|
charlottefl
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 94
|
|
I understand that hurricanes are extremley complicated to predict, at least as far as future track is concerned.
And I understand that the , models, and forecasting tools have continued to increase in skill. Having said
that I have seen numerous situations where a storm just 3 days out way predicted to go one place and went
another. (And I'm not just talking 50 or 60 miles. Sometimes more than a few 100.)
To answer one persons comment about why no one is paying attention to Dean in the St. Pete area.
When you have forcasters say it's NOT going to affect your area they are on a slippery slope. I know better than to
let my guard down even when forcasters are showing no impact to my area because of the simple fact that
things change. The atmosphere is constantly changing and there are certian factors that can sometimes not
be seen that cause storms to do crazy thing. Keeping this in mind I watch intently what Dean is doing, knowing
that Dean is probally going where they say it is, but there is always an off chance it's not. Being ready in the
event things change, and hoping they don't. So as for Dean continue to keep a watchful eye, time will tell where
He will go.
|
weather999
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 25
Loc: southwestern ontario, canada
|
|
Quote:
5pm advisory is out, with absolutely no changes to intensity or forecast to speak of. I'm not sure what the recon status is, but it would surprise me for the pressure to not start plummeting at any time now, and the winds to really go up in a hurry - and yes, I'm aware that they're already at 150.
I would totally agree. I thought that Dean's intensity would drop a bit this morning/afternoon, but it appears that the storm was strong enough to bear the brunt of this and not lose any intensity.
As well, it looks like Dean will clip the warm eddy south of Hispanola, which adds to the bullets in the storm's favour...
I'll say next recon pass: 923 mb, with borderline 5 intensity, 11 pm advisory, cat 5. Jamaica looks to be in bad, bad shape 
|
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
|
|
Thanks for the clarification, I thought they had recon in their continuously with the storm being so powerful. I noticed just now in re-reading the advisory, though, that the pressure is an estimate. Well, when the next recon does go in (tonight, I assume?)... it won't be a pretty report, from the standpoint of the shear power of this thing from looking at it right now. The went by quicker than I expected, and for all intents and purposes, didn't weaken Dean at all. Now that it's apparently ended, it actually would surprise me if recon did not find a Cat 5. But, I said that this morning, and then the happened.
Poor Jamaica. It's still possible that Dean may skirt north or south of a direct hit on the island (and likely, I personally think), but if that does not happen.... yes, I think they are very wise to evacuate aircraft. There is still time, but it will run out very quickly before much longer, and if Dean does indeed strengthen, it will only make matters more urgent.
Here's the recon schedule.... http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD_last.shtml?
**notice they pushed back the Buoy drop.... (drop a buoy out the back of a C-130... in front of the hurricanes path)... but they are going to run 2 a day G-IV missions... sounds like they want to get all the Upper air data they can get!!! There will be center fixes now every 6 hrs until it makes landfall...
--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Sat Aug 18 2007 08:54 PM)
|
belfast-jj
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 2
|
|
Is there any sites that include storm surges - wave height indicators ?
My thoughts are with anyone in the path of Dean
jj.... 
|
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
|
|
This was what Dean had going on this morning.... Notice that the multiple eyewalls show up....
1345utc Here's a Gif File with a better view... Near the eye... Eyewall storms were really high...
There is a mov. file from the pass... Its very large... This is from NASA.
Small Movie *** Notice some of the towers near the center were near 10km high.**
**Basically DEAN is a very Powerful Hurricane... and i expect he is now a Cat 5. We want know until recon gets in there***
Edited by Storm Hunter (Sat Aug 18 2007 09:40 PM)
|
weatherguy08
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 60
Loc: Miami, Fla.
|
|
Is it just me or does the CIMSS 200-700 MB Layer Analysis show that the upper-low has had a slight southwestwards movement today? I could see that if this low moves farther south, it could "pull" Dean northwestwards more than anticipated. Maybe this is where the is getting its solution. Speaking of the in the 2100Z discussion, the mentioned, "THERE COULD BE VERY UNCERTAIN DAYS AHEAD SINCE THE HAS HAD A VERY RELIABLE TRACK RECORD."
Link to 200-700 Layer Analysis Map: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm6.html
Use buttons in the upper left hand corner to see the history of this past in three hour increments.
Edited by weatherguy08 (Sat Aug 18 2007 09:41 PM)
|
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
|
|
Quote:
Is it just me or does the CIMSS 200-700 MB Layer Analysis show that the upper-low has had a slight southwestwards movement today? I could see that if this low moves farther south, it could "pull" Dean northwestwards more than anticipated. Maybe this is where the is getting its solution.
I have not yet looked at the CIMISS 200-700 MB Layer Analysis.. but... the water vapor loop caused me to believe the same thing - the low appears to have moved southwest, and I can see how this could pull Dean more poleward than any of the models may anticipate. Having said that, it really depends upon where the low goes in relationship to Dean from here on out.
--------------------
Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
|
Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
|
|
Another thing that caught my eye was the eastward movement of the high pressure, it now appears to have moved a couple hundred miles to the east (in the highest levels), looking at a wider range of pressures, the ridge looks wider, but also a bit weaker in the steering currents. This really is a case of, be alert, but no need to do anything but keep an eye on the storm. (well that and make sure you know what to do in case the storm does the unexpected).
I'm just not sold on the 285 degree track for 5 days.
--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
|
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
|
|
Recon is up... heading towards the Domincan Rep..... it will be a while before center fix!
--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
|
dem05
User
Reged:
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
|
|
Well...Dean pretty much looks to possibly returning to the due west juant it was on last night...This time...it has found route 16. This likely comes down to the switching influences I mentioned this morning with respect to the Upper Level Low in the Gulf and the Risge to the North. The Upper Level low has made up a little ground today and Dean is likely feeling a bit more influence from the ridge. If dean speeds up a bit,or the ULL slows down a bit...we may go back toa direction of 290 degrees again in the morning (much like this morning)...Been getting ready to prepare a new post like the one I put up this morning. Figure to have something up on the forum by about 8-8:30 PM.
Edited by dem05 (Sat Aug 18 2007 11:02 PM)
|
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
|
|
It does indeed look like there has been a jog due west. Maybe this will allow Dean to move south of Jamaica and spare them.
--------------------
Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
|
lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
|
|
cloud tops are colder than 2 hours ago. white is now appearing. NASA
--------------------
Matthew '16, Hermine '16, Colin '16, Bonnie '10, Fay '08, Wilma, '05, Katrina '05, Jeanne '04, Frances '04, Charley '04 in FTM (drove behind it), Bertha '96, Bob '91, The Blizzard of '78 in NH
|
Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
|
|
The has (temporarily, at least) come into agreement with the other guidance, as the new 18Z run has Dean making its final landfall well south of the TX/Mexico border, very close to the official track.
|
dem05
User
Reged:
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
|
|
Hi again gang, I am reworking a new map right now to share with you, so you may not hear from me until 8:30-9:00. A fellow poster (srquirrely) has provided an excellent water vapor link that far exceeds anything Ihave been using. I will base my posted image from it, but I wanted to share the loop in case you don't have it. Mean time, I have to give her all the credit for my next image that I'll be posting. If you haven't found this WV link form Unisys yet, I think you are gonna like it!
Link: http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_hem_loop-12.html
|
OUSHAWN
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 101
Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
|
|
Thunderbird beat me to it. I just noticed the model as well. Looks like they are all coming into agreement now. They just seem to differ some on what part of Mexico Dean will hit. I actually noticed a bit of a SW movement to Dean in the last few visibles before we lost the daylight.
Shawn
|
Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
|
|
Our beast, about an hour ago (last good image of the day):
|
Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 383
Loc: Plant City, Florida
|
|
Quote:
It does indeed look like there has been a jog due west. Maybe this will allow Dean to move south of Jamaica and spare them.
Passing closely to the south of Jamaica is not a whole lot better than directly overhead. At this point, from where Dean is, you would hope for it to go to the north of the island since the worst weather and stonger wind field is usually on the north side of a storm. Also passing to the north, they wouldn't experience winds that combine the rotational speed of the storm (~150mph) with the forward speed of 18 mph...that makes about a 35mph difference from the N side of this storm to the S side....at least that is how I have been lead to understand it. This more westward movement tonight could be a trend or could just be a continuation of what now looks like a slow overall pattern of wobbling (VERY slow). This should mean a more northward wobble beginning sometime after midnight EST.....just my own interpretation...anyone else what to touch that idea?
--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
|
neospaceblue
Weather Watcher
.gif)
Reged:
Posts: 28
Loc: Newport News, VA
|
|
Pressure down to 920 mb. Category 5 by 11 PM
--------------------
I survived: Hurricane Bonnie (1998), Hurricane Dennis (1999), Hurricane Floyd (1999), Hurricane Isabel (2003), Tropical Storm Ernesto (2006)
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
