Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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i think that was the wrong recon... Notice the time
lol.. You guys got it... I noticed i saw a 926mb reading... in the data
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Aug 20 2007 02:04 AM)
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Nathan
Verified CFHC User
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Well as said much earlier in the day if the ULL stalls out before or around 90-95 West it might bring the track further north, but Im thinking that probably wont happen.
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Mike N
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Tampa, FL
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It appears that the ULL in the Gulf is slowing down if not possibly beginning to stall. Check out the WV loop.
Also, seems the system NE of the Lesser Antilles will encounter shear if not already. Enough to keep it at bay??
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Nathan
Verified CFHC User
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I have not looked lately but where is that High Pressure ridge and and is it going to make it down to push the ULL out, or will we be looking at the ULL as a player over the next few days.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Dean is now approaching the warmest (hottest?) part of the Caribbean, I believe, and just looking at the IR loop, it appears that the eye is shrinking, and doing so at a quick pace, so it's not surprising to see a lower pressure and a single eyewall. Curious that the estimated surface winds (121kts) are very close to the FL winds (125kts)...
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru
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Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
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The ULL does look like it has slowed down or stalled but it also looks like the ridge may be breaking down the ULL as it seems to be much stronger and is winning out. So the ULL still may not be a factor even though it has stalled.
Shawn
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Well as said much earlier in the day if the ULL stalls out before or around 90-95 West it might bring the track further north, but Im thinking that probably wont happen.
Anything is possible, though. Indeed, I've been looking at the ULL periodically today, and it has at times looked like it was stalling. Dean has obviously continued moving due west, though - but that makes sense because there was some distance between the two systems. Now, however, the inflow into the ULL, so to speak, is very close to the edge of Dean's moisture envelope. Will it be enough to yank Dean northward? The models do not think so, and neither does the . I would put the possibility at something greater than zero, but I don't know how much (not high, at this point, but keep an eye on it).
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Mon Aug 20 2007 02:29 AM)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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Looks like recon may have found stronger winds.... at
02:26:00Z at the location of 17.70N 78.82W at an alt of (~ 20.61 inHg) 2,842 meters
(~ 9,324 feet) Flt. Level 30 sec. wind - From 53° at 139 knots (From the NE at ~ 159.8 mph)
URNT12 KNHC 200243
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 20/02:19:30Z
B. 17 deg 28 min N
078 deg 34 min W
C. 700 mb 2452 m
D. 107 kt
E. 128 deg 9 nm
F. 224 deg 108 kt
G. 128 deg 009 nm
H. 927 mb
I. 7 C/ 3019 m
J. 18 C/ 3043 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C16
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 1104A DEAN OB 10
MAX FL WIND 125 KT E QUAD 01:25:00 Z
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 143 KT NW QUAD 02:25:30 Z
STARS VISIBLE ABOVE IN CENTER
awww.... must be a nice night!!  Take a picture guys!!!
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Aug 20 2007 02:50 AM)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
Edited by Random Chaos (Mon Aug 20 2007 02:47 AM)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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not sure, but i think they may have dropped two GPS Dropsondes on this pass...?? Checking data now.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Aug 20 2007 02:48 AM)
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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Im not sure if anyone posted a statement on the storms over S florida today..but they were NOT part of Dean. Deans furthest band so far is over central cuba and that is currently. Lets try not to overdo or scare people in florida who are not weather knowledgable.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Looks like the recon info only sorta made it in before the advisory... in the initial section they say pressure is *estimated* at 925, and in the repeat they say minimum central pressure is 924 (don't say estimated). Also, the advisory held the winds at 145mph. While the recon has not found anything higher than that - yet - they likely will before they depart, given the trend.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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Somehow we are and aren't in the main forum, depending on how you access the thread.
Edit:
Looks like we need a new main thread. Thread corruption is occurring.
Edited by Random Chaos (Mon Aug 20 2007 02:58 AM)
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BillD
User
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Loc: Miami
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Something is linked wrong. If you go to the latest message from the top page you get here. But if you go into the start of the thread, it ends with your message referring to me posting the next to the last vortex message.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Looks like the board is redirecting posts to the Disaster Forum instead of the main one?
EDIT: I started to reply to THIS message, and it was linked correctly - but the messages directly above this message are linked to the Disaster forum.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Mon Aug 20 2007 03:08 AM)
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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru
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Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
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I'm a little confused. Someone on here said not too long ago that some of the models had shifted a little further northward but in the 11:00 discussion the said they had shifted further southward. I guess that also means that the ULL won't have any effect on Dean even though it has pretty much stalled. I guess because the ridge is winning out and predicted to become even stronger.
Shawn
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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I can understand the confusion. The ULL does appear to have stalled but it is apparently far enough away to not influence Dean at all.
It appears that this thread is duplicated in both the NewsTalk forum (main forum) and the Disaster forum.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Mon Aug 20 2007 03:18 AM)
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Dean is very simple for a forecast. All the global models agree and the ,FSU SuperEns take this just south of Cozumel.. ( I feel good enough south of there) and into the BOC then somewhere near Tampico Mx. TX chance of getting more then a feeder band is less then 10%. Its been like this for 36hrs now on its MX forecasted path. There is nothing to take this more NW as the ridge will be strong over the SE U.S. and because of this ridge...we might have to look east of the bahamas on Weds-Fri.
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flahurricane
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc:
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Even if the ULL slows or stalls as it appears to be doing. The high pressure is spreading south toward north Florida. This will keep Dean on a due west track regardless of the ULL. That is until Dean exit the Yucatan Peninsula where is possibly could drift northward up the coast toward extreme south Texas.
Quote:
Quote:
Well as said much earlier in the day if the ULL stalls out before or around 90-95 West it might bring the track further north, but Im thinking that probably wont happen.
Anything is possible, though. Indeed, I've been looking at the ULL periodically today, and it has at times looked like it was stalling. Dean has obviously continued moving due west, though - but that makes sense because there was some distance between the two systems. Now, however, the inflow into the ULL, so to speak, is very close to the edge of Dean's moisture envelope. Will it be enough to yank Dean northward? The models do not think so, and neither does the . I would put the possibility at something greater than zero, but I don't know how much (not high, at this point, but keep an eye on it).
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Some great images of Dean:
http://spaceflight.nasa.gov/gallery/images/shuttle/sts-118/html/s118e07920.html
http://spaceflight.nasa.gov/gallery/images/shuttle/sts-118/html/s118e07919.html
http://spaceflight.nasa.gov/gallery/images/shuttle/sts-118/html/s118e07937.html
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