weather999
Weather Watcher
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Loc: southwestern ontario, canada
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Quote:
RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SHOW A SINGLE EYEWALL THAT HAS
BECOME BETTER DEFINED WITH COLDER TOPS IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL
BE HELD AT 130 KT...BUT LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT DEAN
IS APPROACHING CATEGORY FIVE STATUS...AND IT IS EXPECTED REACH THAT
THRESHOLD LATER TODAY OVER THE DEEP WARM WATERS OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN.
From the latest discussion--the single eyewall is apparent in at the latest microwave imagery, and very apparent in AVN, and especially (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/bd.jpg).
I'm with Psyber... next recon will probably give us Cat 5, or staying at a Cat 4 until landfall in the Yucatan.
I found it interesting that the has (finally) forecasted Dean to not reach Cat V status, and at the same time, are "expecting" Dean to reach 5.
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Scott3294
Registered User
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Quote:
I updated the main article, but I'm reposting it here too. With more analysis and some input from Ed, here's what looks good so far.
The system (92L) is roughly 2260 miles east southeast of Central Florida, and the center is near 22.5N, 56.0W. Movement is west northwest at 17MPH, and should continue that and potentially trend more westward (based on the sketchy initial model runs), forward speed may increase up to 21-23MPH.
If it were to affect the US, the current thinking is that it would be approaching around Friday or Saturday.
Not to pick nits...but I am measuring about 1450 NM from Savannah. I think 2260 miles may be a a bad measurement for 56w/22.5N.
Edited by Scott3294 (Mon Aug 20 2007 03:17 PM)
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Recon is airborne from Keesler AFB as of 45 minutes ago.
My guess is that Dean is as close to Keesler as he is to St Croix USVI. That also allows the crews in St Croix to rest before possibly flying an INVEST on the system mentioned above.
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Psyber
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Ontario, Canada
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From the recon it looks like Franklin thinks it's a forgone conclusion that Dean is going CAT5. It's not surprising considering how little is in front of him along with a nice warm soup of SST's.
My biggest concern is that any more intensity now will pay dividends for when Dean enters the southern GOM...there are alot of people in the Veracruz area that could be affected by Dean 2.0. All evidence points him north of Mexico City...lets hope he stays that way. There's 18-20million people in Mexico City...alot of who are in substandard housing. Even a weak Cat 2 could cause monstrous damage.
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The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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From 26.7N/ 80 W, just south of West Palm Beach, and just east of the US Highway 98/ US Highway 1 intersection, to the 22.5N/ 56.0W coordinate estimates above.
Great circle, as the crow flies, is 1330 nm at 95degrees true.
Checked the 0815_00Z model at sea level for the 120 hour forecast. Which was last night at 8PM EDT.
The model had Dean a bit to the south and east of where he actually was. Close enough!
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cg...&hour=120hr
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cg...&hour=000hr
Edited by danielw (Mon Aug 20 2007 03:40 PM)
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Jorge Nakazawa
Registered User
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Loc: Mexico City, Mexico
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[My biggest concern is that any more intensity now will pay dividends for when Dean enters the southern GOM...there are alot of people in the Veracruz area that could be affected by Dean 2.0. All evidence points him north of Mexico City...lets hope he stays that way. There's 18-20million people in Mexico City...alot of who are in substandard housing. Even a weak Cat 2 could cause monstrous damage.
Actually, Mexico City is immune to direct hits by hurricanes due to its being located in a central plateau (2400 mts above sea level) and surrounded by high mountains. Almost all we get from hurricanes is a lot of rain, which in itself may cause severe troubles, but nowhere as much as a hurricane will cause. Frankly, we are more concerned with the rural communities in the Yucatan peninsula and Veracruz. There are a lot of poor communities there, and the geography of the coast with the proximity of the mountains make for very nasty flash flood conditions.
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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i don't think NWS has put a system off of florida into the forecast period beyond some weather.. watching to see if they do. Either way... waiting to see if comes on. I've heard shear is not a big problem in a day or so but at the moment that area is messy, congested and not what I would call favorable. But.. we'll see.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
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I'm looking at the latest models I can see. It seems that the still has something crossing central Florida later in the week, but not the "storm" it showed for the last few runs. The & UKMET still don't show anything.
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Psyber
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Ontario, Canada
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Quote:
I'm looking at the latest models I can see. It seems that the still has something crossing central Florida later in the week, but not the "storm" it showed for the last few runs. The & UKMET still don't show anything.
the 1-2-3 model shows a fairly sizable area in the eastern carribean to watch as well in the next 48 hours. There isn't much there yet to forcast with so it's still very early to be placing anything striking anywhere until a real component shows up with some decent steering.
As for Dean:
REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...18.0 N...83.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...924 MB.
nothing really new to report, slight strengthening per forcast...I think that Honduras is affecting the inflow a little bit right now
Edited by Psyber (Mon Aug 20 2007 06:03 PM)
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LisaC
Weather Watcher
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Its still a cat 4 at the 2 pm advisory. Dean looks very impressive on the Sat image. Looks like landfall just north of the board with Belize.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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Still on forecasted path of landfall near 19N and still I feel no threat to TX with 2nd landfall as a Cat 2 near Tampico MX. I dont have much to say but this is a simple forecast with all the global models saying the same thing for days now.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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WTNT02 KNGU 201600Z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 201600Z AUG 07//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 22.3N 54.7W TO 27.0N 65.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
2. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 54.7W HAS FORMED
BENEATH INTENSE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WIND SHEAR HAS BEEN
ANALYZED AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1009MB.
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS STILL DISORGANZIED.
HOWEVER, AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO WEAK WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES DOWNSTREAM, TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
ENHANCED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 211600Z.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/docs/current_storms/al922007.tcf
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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hmm... new XTRP puts 92L in my neck of the woods in 120 hrs (western Calhoun County in Fla. Panhandle)... lol... I know its just the current heading/speed/extrapolation... really XTRP is going to jump around alot until we get a closed low out of 92L. This Invest will need watching over the coming days...
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Clark
Meteorologist
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I've gotta wonder about how fast 92L will develop, if it does at all. Looking at current water vapor imagery, Dean is feeding an upper low (TUTT cell) currently over Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. The associated outflow jet is being enhanced by the temperature gradient associated with the warm outflow from Dean, resulting in an increase in vorticity (spin) and an enhancement to the mass sink that is that upper low. I see 92L on the reasonably favorable NE side of that, but I also see it about to get flung west between this upper low and the subtropical ridge to its north. Thinking out loud, I have to wonder if the models are not handling the evolution of the cell correctly, similar to what happened with Philippe in 2005 (sheared apart by a -enhanced upper low in the face of continual strengthening prognostications). I defer to the experts at on this one, but I don't see anything out there that catches my eye for sudden development.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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NCEP mentioned the GEM and DGEX both bring 92L toward the FL Peninsula in the next 5 days.
The current Area Forecast Discussions from Jacksonville, Melbourne and Miami also mention the system as a Tropical Wave.
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craigm
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Palm City, Florida
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92L---I just grabbed a piece of this text, hopefully not completely out of context. NWS HPC doesn't delve into intensity forecasts as much as overall synoptics, I think.
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
251 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2007
THE ONLY EXCEPTION
TO THE MEAN WAS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA WHERE 00Z/20 GEM
GLOBAL AND 06Z/20 DGEX BOTH SUPPORT BRINGING A TROPICAL SYSTEM
WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
Entire text can be found here and is time sensitive:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html
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Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Florida
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Looks like Dean will be a Cat 5 at 5:00 PM winds are 156.5 MPH..
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 neospaceblue
Weather Watcher
.gif)
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Loc: Newport News, VA
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000
URNT12 KNHC 201945
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 20/192320Z
B. 18 DEG 05 MIN N
083 DEG 39 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2399 M
D. 120 KTS
E. 060 DEG 15 NM
F. 151 DEG 151 KTS
G. 060 DEG 15 NM
H. 918 MB
I. 9 C/ 3037 M
J. 19 C/ 3043 M
K. 18 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C18
N. 12345/7
O. 0.03/1 NM
P. AF303 1404A DEAN 0B 15
MAX FL WIND 151 KT NE QUAD 1918Z
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I survived: Hurricane Bonnie (1998), Hurricane Dennis (1999), Hurricane Floyd (1999), Hurricane Isabel (2003), Tropical Storm Ernesto (2006)
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Psyber
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Ontario, Canada
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Quote:
000
H. 918 MB
Impressive in a morbid fascination way...We're looking at possibly < 160mph winds at landfall considering he's moving along pretty fast and probably won't lose much inflow before landfall. I was hoping for a little more southern track that put him slightly over hondouras but he's walking right over top of it and is going to maintain maxium time over deep warm SST's. If there's any GOOD part to a this, its that he's not exactly sitting in one place battering anything for too long.
Unless my eyes deceive me, the N-W part of the eyewall is a little more ragged then the iron curtain it was all afternoon so possibly some good news coming before landfall...
EDIT: Ummm am I misreading or did Franklin use a probable bogus speed in his calculations in the 5pm discussion?
I wanted to bring people's attention (not sure if its been mentioned yet) to the National Hurricane Center's RSS feed. Alot of people aren't into them yet but they are great for specific on the run push email updates: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index-at.xml
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The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.
Edited by Psyber (Mon Aug 20 2007 08:47 PM)
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DougBaker
Verified CFHC User
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918mb, but not a cat 5? any reason the winds have not increased as the preassure has gone down.
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