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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)

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The Second Half
      #77495 - Sat Aug 25 2007 11:34 PM

June, July and most of August are in the record books - without a great deal of activity. A strong Atlantic ridge has kept the ITCZ well to the south of where it normally would be at this time of year. The tropical waves exiting the west coast of Africa have been small and mostly rather weak and a cool eastern tropical Atlantic still persists. The only significant shear problem has been the strong easterlies generated by the Atlantic ridge itself. Saharan dust has let up considerably. The current count for the season stands at 5/1/1.

MJO hasn't been much of a useful indicator this year and the eastern Atlantic SSTs are still expected to remain slightly on the cool side for the remainder of the year and a continuing La Nina is also anticipated for the rest of the year.

I'm leaning toward 6/4/1 for the remainder of the season.

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Re: The Second Half [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #77545 - Tue Aug 28 2007 10:57 PM

Any MJO cycles haven't had much success in sustaining themselves out in the Pacific; it's a kind of weird oceanic state we're in, stuck in a weak La Nina pattern with a lot of mixed signals across the board. Despite that, the next month looks to feature positive divergence anomalies at upper levels across much of the main development region. SAL hasn't been as big of a problem as in the past couple of seasons, likely due to increased rainfall across the Sahel in Africa this year, though a strong Azores ridge has kept things fairly stable and moving quickly in the Atlantic. Regardless, SSTs have finally warmed to marginally supportive levels off of the coast of Africa. Even without well-defined tropical waves for most of the season, there has been a persistent monsoonal-like trough across the tropical Atlantic for much of the season; this bodes well once we get better-defined disturbances coming off of Africa, as we seem to start to be doing now.

I think we will see a quite active peak in September, with 6 named storms. In fact, I like Ed's "rest of season" numbers for September, albeit with two major storms rather than one. I think we will likely see a quieter period begin toward late September and last into early October. I expect 2, maybe 3 more storms beyond September, with 1 of those becoming a hurricane.

In sum, 8/5/2. That'd bring us to 13/6/3 for the season -- or a couple of storms short of my early-season prediction, which I'm more than fine with.

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Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: The Second Half [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #77546 - Wed Aug 29 2007 01:29 AM

Thought I would get around to sticking my toe in the water, now that it's warmed up a little bit, perhaps just enough to get a clearer picture as we head into and over that mind-bubbling mid-point

I expect to see the ongoing Saharan Air Layer (SAL) intrusions of recent seasons to continue this year, although perhaps with diminishing effect on system development for the remainder of the season - a combination of the other players coming together better, and perhaps more specifically less dry air, overall -

Not sure what to make of the stubbornly intense Azores ridge, other than I suspect that it simply has to start to give at some point, and allow for some healthier wave action.

Fronts this year have had a tendency to drop quite a bit further south than normal, and while I expect this to continue, I also anticipate several more cold core to warm core transitions before the season is up, with perhaps one or two named systems during the months of November & December (more likely November than December).

For the remainder of 2007, I'll go with: 9 more named storms, 5 more hurricanes, 3 more majors, bringing the 2007 total to 14 named, 6 hurricanes, 4 major, plus anything that might just get added posthumously during reanalysis, of which I currently have four potential candidates in mind - with two of these four standing out above the other two.

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