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Reged: Fri
Posts: 245
Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii
Typhoon Wipha Spares Shanghai / East Pacific Gets Busy
      #78578 - Tue Sep 18 2007 10:26 PM

Greetings Everyone. Just as Florida's Invest is now steadily developing, so too is the Eastern Pacific becoming quite active again. More on that in a moment.

Of much more significance is Typhoon Wipta, which has made landfall on the SE China coast some distance south of Shanghai. Typhoon Wipta was a Super Typhoon, with 130 Kt. winds, in the day or so leading up landfall, while still maintaining 'Major' status (100 Kts. or 115 mph) at the time of landfall.

However, it appears that the huge Shanghai metro area has managed to largely avoid the worst of Wipta's wrath. As mentioned, the monster cyclone came ashore well south of the city, although an estimated 1.6 million poeple were evacuated from hazardous areas as a precaution.

And, as vpbob has pointed out ...

>> "I'm not real familiar with the topography of that part of China but just from looking at a map there seem to be a lot of deep inlets and bays that could be very susceptible to storm surge with the onshore winds pushing water inland."

So while Shanghai has largely dodged the bullet, the many 'deep inlets and bays' south of the city and closer to point of landfall had to have had some serious impacts from Wipta. More on Wipta's impacts later ...

Meanwhile, a small invest a few hundred miles off Mexico's west coast had gained enough convective organization to be upgraded, first to TD-10E and now we have Tropical Storm 'Ivo' It's expected to gently recurve back towards the tip of Baja as a weakening storm in the coming days, and should not pose a serious threat to Cabo San Lucas, barring any sudden intensification, which can sometimes be tricky to forecast, ala 'Humberto'.

And lastly, and perhaps most interestingly, are the developments in the western East Pac basin. A very large and elongated area of lower pressures and disturbed weather, oriented SW to NE has persisted for a few days with very strong convection flaring sporadically near several (at least 3) ill-defined low level centers.

Sometimes the LLCs dissipate and are dropped from the TAF analysis charts, but at least one vigorous mid-level circulation clearly persists through it all. And it now appears that the deep convection is consolidating nicely near 15N and 125W, as NRL has just posted it as a new invest, 98E, for the EastPac basin.

If this invest does undergo tropical cyclogenesis, it will have a very large circulation envelope, like Flossie earlier in the season, which may initally hinder any rapid development, but if it does intensify, it would likely be a very large storm.

It's developing in the same area (around 15N and 125W) that both Hurricanes Cosme and Flossie formed earlier in the season, both of which went on to threaten Hawaii for part of their lifetimes. Cosme turned out to ba a good rain event for a parched Big Island, and I'm sure you'll recall that Flossie was a serious threat (Hurricane Watch for the Big Island), maintaining a strong Cat 3 and min Cat 4 status for days, all the while making a bee-line for the State.

So, we'll have to see what becomes of Invest 98E, as it's in a 'climatogically favorable' area to possibly effect Hawaii in a week to ten days, assuming it does develop.

Here's a good link to follow along in 98E's bid at cyclogenesis:;overlay=off

Aloha From Hawaii, Norm

PS: Everyone did a fantastic job with Humberto! Fascinating and engrossing to read along during Humberto's rapid intensification. These forums are just great. Keep up the good work everyone!

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