Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Thursday 10/11 Update -- 4:30pm ET
The National Hurricane Center has designated the unsettled area southeast of Bermuda as the season's 15th tropical depression. It is expected to move generally toward the north and east over the next several days before being absorbed by a frontal boundary. On the whole, the basin remains full of convection but low in terms of organized features.
Update - Friday, 10/05, 11:30PM EDST
Invest 90L moved inland over east Texas earlier today and Invest 92L has been dropped. Invest 91L located at 12.7N 48.9W at 06/00Z. 91L has been stationary for the past 12 hours and remains very disorganized under westerly shear. 14L, the remnants of Melissa, barely recognizable at 24.6N 53.5W at 06/00Z.
Newly identified Invest 93L located at 20.5N 67.5W at 06/00Z has some chance for slow additional development. Movement probably to the west northwest or northwest.
The former 92L is now an elongated trough of low pressure that should rapidly transition to the eastern Gulf tonight, but any development chance is pretty slim.
ED
Original Post
No tropical cyclones in the basin - but lots of potential areas of interest. The remains of Melissa (14L) were located at 21.6N 48.6W at 04/00Z with winds of 30knots. Convection keeps firing, primarily to the north of the circulation center, and some minimal intensification is possible. The system is currently moving to the west northwest at 14 knots.
Invest 90L located in the northern Gulf of Mexico near 26.8N 87.8W at 04/00Z with winds of 25 knots. System has not developed today and at times convection has been on the wane. Current movement is to the northwest at 8 knots. Modest shear and proximity to the Louisiana coast should limit further development - but it still needs to be monitored.
Invest 91L well to the east of the Windward Islands near 9.6N 42.0W at 04/00Z with winds near 25 knots and movement to the west at 12 knots. System is still not well organized, however, some slow development is possible over the next couple of days.
Finally, Invest 92L is east of the central Bahamas. The center has been relocating to the southeast over the past 4 or 5 hours and a weak low level circulation may be starting to develop near 24.6N 71.5W at 04/02Z. Sustained winds probably near 25 knots as convection fires primarily to the east and south of the center. Again, slow development is possible, but with the constant shift in center location, a future track is not easily determined. This one is truly a wait-and-see system. So we will.
ED
Southeast Composite Radar
Edited by MikeC (Tue Oct 16 2007 11:31 AM)
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Storm Hunter
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don't look at the 00Z run  I hope like all year that its wrong! But i do say i am having a hard time with seeing how the ridge is going to set up next mon-wed of next week off the NE US. Not sure i by the run from on 92L at 00Z... straight across to the direct westsouthwest.... going to be an interesting weekend, thats for sure! It seems there is a flop in the models from night to day (00z to 18Z)... just seems like there is bad data or some bad coding going on in a few of the models... or maybe i just seeing things? You'll see evening runs show one thing... then mid-day runs show some different. I thought it might have to do with Upper Air data, but am starting to rule that out some. Will see what 12Z brings in the morning.
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Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Oct 04 2007 01:51 AM)
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weathernet
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Looking at early a.m. 0Z data comin' in. Boy! I see whatcha mean regarding . Canadian wants to lay down a Cat 4 on Duval Street! Well, saw that and immediately assumed we here in S. Florida were safe and moreso, probably a great weekend to go fishing! But then, saw both and pretty much in agreement on what would looks like a T.D. in the Florida Straits in about 48 hours or so. Given other model continuity, I pretty much have a fair amount of confidence in , at 96hr. or less. Lately has trended systems too deep, while more shallow. Most interesting however was the 0Z run on 92L. Again, assuming some model conformity, perhaps an even better tool for tropical cyclongenesis. looks to place a slow moving Tropical Storm just southeast of the Florida Keys in about 54 hours, with a coarse heading closer to 270 rather than WSW. A slow moving and broad system such as depicts, would'nt shake too many coconuts off the trees, but sure could drop about 6"-12" of rain over large areas of S. Fla.
Given all this, and the upper anticyclone over the Bahamas, am a little puzzled as to some appearant lack of "mojo" thus far. Would've anticipated we'd be seeing a more unified consolodation of convection by now. Granted, only today have we started to see some pressure falls in the Bahamas, but if we are to see some development out of this Bahamas system, than would expect a fairly significant upswing in this systems overall cloud structure within 24 hours. Perhaps no evident low or mid level turning by then, but certainly a greater consolodation of convection perhaps indicative of continued slow pressure falls.
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neospaceblue
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The has this very near hurricane intensity by Monday.
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I survived: Hurricane Bonnie (1998), Hurricane Dennis (1999), Hurricane Floyd (1999), Hurricane Isabel (2003), Tropical Storm Ernesto (2006)
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ftlaudbob
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A anti-cyclone seems to be forming over 92L.This could get very interesting very quickly.Conditions still look good for development.I would say people from West Palm down the the Keys should start to watch this system very closely.Alot depends on where the High is and where the LLC forms.We don't want any surprises!
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Artemis
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I'm a weather novice and I live in West Palm Beach. Could you please explain what an "anti-cyclone" is? I went to Wiki and I don't understand how it could affect an existing weather system such as 92L. It was just defined as it affects land or over water, but nothing about how it could change a weather system. And, just how quickly could things change, and how could this change affect the weather here?
Thanks-'preciate it!
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Lamar-Plant City
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I am not a weather 'expert', but I will give it a shot. An anticyclone is an area of high pressure in the upper atmosphere. To have a strong tropical system requires (among other things) a SURFACE area of LOW pressure and an UPPER area of high pressure. It has to do with moving heat from the ocean surface upward and developing strong convection. Many tropical systems have well developed lows at the surface, but don't have good high pressure aloft to help develop a stronger system. This one has the high pressure above, but lacks a strong low at the surface at this point. I may get corrected on the fine points, but that is the way I have been taught this (PLEASE correct me if I am wrong....I HATE to be wrong  )
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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
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cchsweatherman
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Taking a look at 92L, there is no one defined center of circulation associated with this disturbance, so it is very premature to look at any forecast models regarding the track of this system. This is one of those rare cases where the future intensity of the system can be better predicted than the future track. No one has a great handle on this system, not even the computer models. We will have to wait and see what develops throughout the day with 92L for better signs of the future development and track of this system.
(Lets leave the issuing of 'Weather Alerts' to , NWS and Meteorologists. Certain alarmist material was removed.)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Oct 04 2007 11:34 PM)
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scottsvb
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Correct that we dont have a clear idea on this invest.. Looking at data we have and model heights around the region show that this may continue to be broad as pressures also fall in the NW carribean due to rising heights off the midatlantic and western Atlantic. With a ridge off the east coast...a general W movement will take place. After it gets near the Yucitan a general consolidation may take place. A strong upper low is forecasted to move out into the plains by early next week and head towards the great lakes and ohio valley.. This may enforce a N and then NE movement of whatever is down there as the westerlys drop to near 25N by late week. Still this isnt a forecast cause we dont have a handle on the whole situation including the invest. In the near term with pressures slowly falling around the whole region...1 exact low pressure wont be the main player as we might have a few weak lows until the broad area gets west of the FLA straits and Cuba.
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allan
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Actually there is a circulation, but no convection.. however, my eyes may be tricking me or a low may be forming around 72W and 24N.. I see a circulation, we'll see what happens in the future.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis-l.jpg
Also, IF and this is a big if.. if the storm gets into the Western Carribean and under the anticyclone (shield), it may become a more serious threat.. but we'll have to see what happens, it's seems like that twist I see on the visible is moving southwest.. again, we'll see what happens later.
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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Rasvar
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I have to agree that 92L will be a long term project that may still be four or five days away from substantial development. The idea of a system camping out around the Yucatan or Bay of Campeche and then getting kicked out to the NE is my long term concern if this system does develop.
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Old Sailor
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There are no models supporting a NE run of 92L after BOC not of them as of now.. did it for one run..
Dave
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scottsvb
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no models are showing a NE movement cause them runs are out too far and its based on data and evolution of the atmosphere. Cant always go with what the models say but I do agree with them showing a digging upper level low and trough ....but will it capture the disturbance and how strong will it or the disturbance be...there are many questions. Just cant go by model runs.
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weathernet
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I believe that the earlier noted low level swirl slowly moving westward towards S. Florida, was the "embrionic stage" that the northerly shear was quick to seperate. The area of the elongated trough, south of Cuba, though limited in convection, does show a little more rotation, as well as better parked under the middle of the upper high. Hmmmm, perhaps has had a pretty good read on this system after all. Any significant development of the area in the Bahamas will at minimum seem to be an uphill battle.
As for any other systems, or remnants of other systems, or even 2nd cousin twice removed remnants of previous ghosts of earlier systems, I think that we may soon be moving to that part of the season where a much smaller window will exist for significant tropical systems to develop. Of course, that may not bode well for some of us, as systems stew and propogate up from the W. Caribb. over the next 6 weeks, but at least the current status quo no longer looks to be "that" threat, at least not at the moment.
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cieldumort
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What a difference 24 hours can make in the tropics. And what a difference a little ol' shear and dry air can make, as well. By all appearances, the switch in the Atlantic just got shut off, or generously stated, the dimmer knob got adjusted way, way down. Divert all power West Pac, Mr. Scott! Warp speed Cat 5! And don't give me any mouth about those dilithium crystals! Getting past the boldly going where no bad puns have gone before, it seems increasingly likely, now, that 90L is battling far too much dry air to overcome the moderate shear and non-tropical baggage that has plagued it all along, 92L has just found out the dirty truth behind running into the dirty side of a strong upper level high, 91L hit a wall of hurt even before it could dig its way into the grave..yard, and Melissa.. Melissa.. talk about phantom ghosts!
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HURRICANELONNY
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Don't give up yet on 92L. The cyclonic turning around 23n68w is moving in a general wsw direction. It will be approaching less shear and could become a depression by this weekend. As for the models. I never pay attention to them till something forms. When there is a broad low they tend to pop storms anywhere and everywhere. If it forms this weekend then I'll look . So wait and see it could happen this weekend.
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Beaumont, TX
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Dry air prevented 90L from having a chance to develop. Good for Texas. Strange watching that "ghost" rotating towards shore.
With 92L, it is a wait and see. Shear has been a huge factor this season.
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madmumbler
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Quote:
Divert all power West Pac, Mr. Scott! Warp speed Cat 5! And don't give me any mouth about those dilithium crystals! Getting past the boldly going where no bad puns have gone before,
*ROTFLMAO* I will admit, for a "busy time" (4 invests posted, one of which is a "remnant" come back to life like one of Wes Craven's zombies) it sure is quiet. It's like there's a whole lot of nothing going on right now.
What kind of serious chance does 92L have though, long run? It looks like on water vapor it's sucking in a bunch of dry air (if I'm looking at the floater correctly). Or is it one of those systems where we need to wait and see what happens when/if it makes it into the GOM?
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Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.
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Lee-Delray
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Posted from wunderground's Dr. Jeff Masters:
"Disturbance 92L east of the Bahamas
An area of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with a surface trough of low pressure (92L) near 22.4N 73W, in the southwestern Bahama Islands, has diminished. Wind shear of 20-30 knots has blown away nearly all of the heavy thunderstorm activity near the surface low pressure system, which has now reformed about 200 miles to the south of where it was last night. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed some westerly surface winds over the southern Bahamas, which would aid in the formation of a new surface circulation under the heavy thunderstorms there. However, wind shear is still 20-25 knots today, and I don't expect any development until 92L can move into the Western Caribbean where wind shear is lower. This may occur Sunday. Another possibility is that a surface circulation just offshore of the Florida Keys, visible as a swirl of low clouds on this morning's visible satellite loop, could begin to develop. The computer models still indicate the possibility of a tropical storm forming in the Western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico 2-7 days from now, but are much less insistent upon it. Upper air conditions are expected to be very favorable for tropical storm formation over the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico for the next seven days, but nothing will form if we don't get a disturbance with some spin to it entering the region. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft is on call to investigate the Western Caribbean on Sunday, if necessary."
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saluki
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I give 92L a fighting chance if it holds together until it reaches the Straits of Florida/Gulf/western Caribbean. It looks like there's simply too much shear over the Bahamas to allow for much development at the moment.
Edited by saluki (Fri Oct 05 2007 10:27 AM)
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