allan
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I dunno about that, the storm has been off track since it became TD16. I expect this to make it into the Carribean where the Anticyclone is and "possibly" strengthen a bit.. I have very low confidence in it turning now, besides, the shortwave that is "supposed" to turn it is still in Texas LOL. We'll be dealing with Noel a bit longer that we originally anticipated. With that Anticyclone there, who knows what can happen, nature is nature and we sometimes can't get it right, just got to let nature do it's thing. Remember.. ANYTHING can happen, sometimes storms have a mind of there own.
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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doug
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The radar suggests a portionof the LLC is already emerging to the west and cerainly some of the percipitation over the Island has intensified a bit. So I guess it is possible for the LLC to continue to be the dominant low, and reorganization to occur further south. But I'm with Mike, this has all the appearances of a sheared system. Shear wasn't supposed to be the issue, but if you watch the Sats you can clearly see a fairly strong SW'ly upper component which would be enough to keep the LLC bare so to speak.
But as I stated the southern and western portion of the circulation are drawing on Carribean support now and we'll see soon how this plays out.
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doug
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LoisCane
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fascinating storm really even though its a not the big exciting cat 4s or 5s we had
there are so many variables with this storm as always this time of year
with this much western movement the models are going to have to shift some
already seen where it will be a gradual turn as opposed to earlier this morning talk was a more northerly turn
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Lee-Delray
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If the LLC detaches, will it turn or go W or SW into the Carribean? Does the rest (what's left) go NE into the Atlantic?
And the big question, what happens in Florida other than a wrecked Holloween for my 9 year old?
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MikeC
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Halloween is going to be windy because of the pressure gradient, somewhat cool, with a chance of some rain (but not directly related to Noel). I'd go for it and just see how things are at that particular time.
I'm of the thought that storms don't have a mind of their own, they do surprise us, but it's because of us not understanding everything about them, and mostly the conditions around the storm.
For example, with Noel, there is little to no chance of it becoming a hurricane, the further west Noel winds up, the more unfavorable conditions get for development. When it does get back over water, conditions are going to likely keep it weak too.
Yesterday and the day before the hurricane center's track had a lot of doubt built into it, today not so much, so far it's been pretty good.
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ftlaudbob
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I am not a MET by a long shot,But just looking at the tracking map,this thing better start turning north real soon.If it waits to much longer it will bump right into South Florida.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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scottsvb
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Noel is slowing turning NW now...and should move NW this evening or maybe even NNW tonight towards Andros Island....I was thinking earlier there was a good chance it would get near 80W..but now 78.5-79 seems more reasonable.
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Lamar-Plant City
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Quote:
Yesterday and the day before the hurricane center's track had a lot of doubt built into it, today not so much, so far it's been pretty good.
Mike. I enjoy your posts and knowledge, but just what about today's forcast tracks do think is pretty good. All I see is the storm center moving WAY left of the track....so the models are just making the turn tighter and tighter and starting farther west as if the northeastern part of the cone is pinned and the lower portion can swivel any way to correct for how far off the path the storm is.....I agree that the northward turn seems invevitable, but the models have missed this westward movement by a LOT...except for the 10/28 12:00 UKMET which predicted this...then changed in the next run.
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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
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LoisCane
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nice to say its about to make a turn but the official 2pm has it slowing down a bit and still moving WEST..
Im less concerned about how Wednesday Night in Miami is and more concerned about Thursday morning.. just back from the ocean where I took pics (all anyone was doing except the guys packing up the deck chairs) so...
until that center comes off and is in water for at least six hours i think its premature for anyone to say with a certainty what noel will ultimately do... as a met, an amateur or just an observer
and the pressure gradient wouldn't be so strong if not for noel hanging in there
takes two to tango
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Lee-Delray
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My 9 year old would have gone for it through !?!
I'm not worried about a strong storm, but figure it will be enoguh to knock power out. For those of you who do not know about FP&L, our power blinks on and off all the time.
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doug
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The visible confirms what you said Scott, also the distance between the mid and low level circulations has lessened. A thought I've had watching for a while is that the midlevel is generally going west too and perhaps the lowlevel is pulling up to reconnect. I don't know if that is why but the visible shows more organization in the low level, more banding, etc. Also the percipitation on the island itself has intensified, particulalrly under that one blow up of convection NE of the center and S of the midlevel....So I question if this is the turn or re-organization.
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doug
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allan
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The LLC will probably not be relocated, and is NOT moving NW... . It seems the LLC is going to enter the Western Carribean in a few hours... That shortwave is still in Texas and the steering currents do NOT favor a recurvature yet. I think this has a good chance on making it past 80W. Of course, ANYTHING can happen and we all may be wrong lol, Noel is something else.
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
Edited by danielw (Wed Oct 31 2007 12:51 AM)
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Steve H1
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Excellent observation doug, as it appears to me that the two are merging, or the convection getting pulled into the LLC, which is a sign of structure improvement. Now it is even harder to see the LLC, but I assume it is beginning a turn to the NW.
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doug
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Alan, I think in time you will see that Scott was correct.
Based on the radar image we have, which is now over an hour old, I would estimate the location to be 21.3 N and 77.6 W
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doug
Edited by doug (Tue Oct 30 2007 08:27 PM)
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allan
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I'm not saying it's not moving at least north of due west, it's just not moving NW. Look at the steering currents, you can easily make out the strong ridge that is keeping Noel south.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.html
I'm sorry but that's not going to make it easy for Noel to "miraculasly" recurve. All the models are wrong.
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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Old Sailor
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Doug I agree with you and Scott, to me the LLC and MLC just North east of Noel with make the right turn.
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allan
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21.0N 78.0W at 5pm
Movement- W at 8mph
As I stated earlier, it can't move NW until that shortwave trough in Eastern Texas gets moving which right now, it's not. I say this becomes a remnant low chubbing in Cuba OR it gets into the Western Carribean and starts to get going. The Carribean scenario is the best choice. I'm not saying it won't recurve, but it all depends on what that trough in Eastern Texas does. West it is and west it will go!
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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doug
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Hello alan, thanks for that chart. The question is which layer is the one in play? What are the steering heights that are relevant here? The 200-700Mb chart paints a completely different picture and one which is more consistent with the models and one which high lights the features I see the discussing as relevant to the track of the storm. Not being a Met, I don't really know but I suspect all the models are not wrong.
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doug
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allan
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yes but that is for a 940 MLB storm or below.. something like , a category 4-5 hurricane. The one I showed you is the 1000 MLB steering current map. the weakness is there yes, but it's so high up there and Noel is too weak to reach it. The next big weakness is that shortwave trough in Eastern Texas which was forecasted to be towards Florida by now, and it isn't so all models except maybe the BAMS is off.. in my opinion. We'll have to see what Noel surprises us with next.
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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ftlaudbob
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Still moving west @5 according to the .This is one hard storm to forcast!I think now all bets are off,and Florida may need to kick it up a notch and prepare for scattered power outages.Covection seems to be building.I think it is offical the models and the are wrong.No knock on the this one was tricky.It will make the turn north,the question is when.Gotta hand it to Allan,looks likehe nailed this.
Edited by ftlaudbob (Tue Oct 30 2007 09:57 PM)
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