Hurricane29
Weather Guru
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Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida
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Quick question ED why would it be unusual under the present or forcasted atmospheric conditions across the tropical atlantic?
Also so your thinking landfall wise for U.S. could be rather on the busy side?
Thanks Again for your insights.
Edited by Hurricane29 (Sun Apr 06 2008 01:01 PM)
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Note that your post was moved because the seasonal prediction thread in the Storm Forum is limited to forecasts only.
A high storm total (14 or more) under strong La Nina pre-season conditions (May/June/July) would be unusual because it has never happened before since reliable SST records have been available (1950).
Regarding landfall, there have been 11 seasons with an average July/August/September Region 3.4 SST anomaly of -0.8C or stronger. A review of those 11 seasons showed a landfall in Texas and North Carolina 45% of the time, and a landfall rate of 64% for Florida and Louisiana. The 11 seasons were 1950, 1954, 1955, 1956, 1964, 1971, 1973, 1975, 1988, 1998 and 1999. Every season had at least one tropical cyclone landfall (TS strength or greater) in the United States. The 11 seasons had a combined total of 26 hurricane landfalls and 17 tropical storm landfalls. If a strong La Nina remains in place through September (as currently forecasted), the probability of a hurricane landfall AND a tropical storm landfall in the U.S. this season is slightly greater than 90%.
ED
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sdgsd
Unregistered
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So where do hurricanes generally spawn in may-june-july. What theatres should we be looking at?
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