Ricreig
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As long as the high to the north of us remains in place, it really doesn't matter too much what the name of the disturbance down south of us is called. It likely won't affect us here in the US. However, looking ahead, there is a push of energey entering the north-west US that will probably induce that high to move off to the east in a few days which will put us on the reverse flow side of that high pressure area that has been blocking all of the tropical moisture to our south. When that happens, any remnants of Alma, or TD1 or just the leftover moisture will start to be drawn NW then N into the GOM where it could get caught up in the tail end of a front. This is a classic scenerio this time of the year for the start of the wet season and given the energy already evident in the Western Carribian, I wouldn't be surprised to see somethind develop, but I don't think it would be a direct continuation of Alma or TD-1, possible, but unlikelly.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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MichaelA
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Well, well, well! They pulled the trigger on this! It's a bit late, but I still don't see this system going very far. I still have my doubts as to whether it will get into the BoC.
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Michael
PWS
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Hugh
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Well, this is a record. Declare a system dead, and then two hours later, declare it a tropical storm.
In this case, the flaw was to have declared it dead to begin with, obviously.
I *still* believe the LLC of Arthur is reforming east of the identified position.
ETA: It appears that they are not going to issue a "discussion" with the initial advisory package. At least, I can't find one that is out yet. I'm curious to see what, if anything, they are going to say in a discussion about the genesis of Arthur. Perhaps they are still trying to figure out how to justify calling it Arthur?
ETA2: And as soon as I hit SEND, they issue the discussion and say this:
This system is not designated Tropical Storm Alma because the
surface center of Alma dissipated over the high terrain of Central
America yesterday.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Sat May 31 2008 01:17 PM)
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dem05
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EDIT: This was not officially Arthur as I was typing. Reference 90L as Arthur now in the text below. 
I see the great debate of is or isn't 90L the spawn of Alma. This is a somewhat classic debate that has occurred in the past. However, with Alma, there is a twist.
I bring to light the following storms of the recent past: Hurricane Mitch of 1998 and Hurricane of 2004. In the case of Mitch, the mid level center that was directly affiliated with the core of the hurricane worked it's way into the Bay of Campechee. That mid level center was able to work it's way back to the surface and re-develop into a tropical storm. After much debate, the system retained it's name. As for in 2004, the same evolution occurred. The mid level circulation directly affiliated with the core of the system re-emerged over water. After a long loop southward, the system worked it's way back to the surface and re-formed several days later. This system required even further examination and debate, but after clear evidence was provided, the decision was made that the new storm was .
In this case, we have two items to discuss.
1.) I think everyone is on board with this one, but if 90L was to develop and it indeed had been the remnants of Alma, it's name would be re-assigned to an Atlantic name.
2.) Alma is the daughter of a monsoon trough and likewise, 90L is the son of the same monsoon trough. However, 90L is certainly not the child of Alma. There are some very good reason to say that 90L is not the remenants of Alma in any way shape or form. Alma was a small cyclone embedded within the broader monsoon trough. While it is true that Alma pumped up some heat and moisture in the Caribbean, the circulation of Alma never made it to the Gulf of Hondoras. In fact, the stage was already being set for 90L to evlove within the broader trough while Alma was just starting to spin down over Central America. By mid day yesterday, it was clear to see that new vorticity was evolving within the moonsoon trough over the Western Caribbean. At the same time, the remenant low of Alma was still deciernable over western Hondoras. As time went by, that remenant low was absorbed into the broader monsoon rotation evolving over the western Caribbean. In some, there was no remenant (low level or mid level) of Alma to make it over water and 90L is of it's own independant development within the broader monsoon trough. If anything, 90L ate the remenants of Alma for lunch mid day yesterday.
I hope this expalains the evloution a bit. In the mean time, I am digging to see if there is an archived satellite loop that depicts how this dance occurred. Will be back with it if I find it.
Edited by dem05 (Sat May 31 2008 01:21 PM)
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Old Sailor
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NHC was to fast to pull the trigger on Arthur, think they giving themself fast count incase it turns out like last year.
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Hugh
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Quote:
If anything, 90L ate the remenants of Alma for lunch mid day yesterday.
I like that analogy, even though I'm not sure I agree with it.
The fact of the matter is that under current storm naming protocols/rules, if a named storm travels from one body of water, across land, and then into another body of water, the storm is renamed. It doesn't matter if the storm maintains itself or not, so in this instance, the origins of Arthur are irrelevant in its naming. Now, whether that protocol makes sense, is a matter for debate, but I think it does, because let's just say that this system had been kept as Alma, and then somehow moved into the central Gulf, grown stronger, and made landfall along the U.S. coastline. Then, the "first" storm to form in the Atlantic basin is given the name "Arthur"... which would cause significant confusion among the public. So, the "right" thing to do is to name this "Arthur" from that standpoint.
The flaw by the is to state that the reason the system was named Arhur had anything do to with Alma other than the fact that it crossed from one body of water into another and was renamed by established protocol.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Rich B
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Arthur has a large wind field - tropical storm force winds out to 260 miles. This is probably, in part, why the system is forecast to weaken by only 5 knots while transiting the Yucatan, and then reintensify over the BOC. Surprised they left it so late to call it, as it was probably a Tropical Depression earlier today too. Cant remember the last time classified a system after it had moved onland tho!
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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xxflcyclonexx
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Loc: Charlotte County
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Current Weather Conditions: Belize / Phillip Goldston Intl. Airport, Belize
(MZBZ) 17-32N 088-18W 5M
Conditions at
2008.05.31 1700 UTC
Wind from the S (190 degrees) at 7 MPH (6 KT)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions overcast
Weather Light rain
Temperature 77 F (25 C)
Dew Point 75 F (24 C)
Relative Humidity 94%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.77 in. Hg (1008 hPa)
ob MZBZ 311700Z 19006KT 9999 -RA BKN010 BKN080 OVC250 25/24 Q1008 2979INS NOSIG
24 Hour Summary
Latest 1 PM (17) May 31 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.77 (1008) S 7 light rain
Noon (16) May 31 29.8 (1009) SSW 6 rain
11 AM (15) May 31 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.77 (1008) SSW 9 light rain
10 AM (14) May 31 75 (24) 75 (24) 29.77 (1008) S 12 light rain
9 AM (13) May 31 75 (24) 75 (24) 29.76 (1007) S 12 rain
8 AM (12) May 31 75 (24) 75 (24) 29.73 (1006) SSW 9 light rain
7 AM (11) No Data
6 AM (10) No Data
5 AM (9) May 31 75 (24) 75 (24) 29.71 (1006) SW 9 light rain
4 AM (8) No Data
3 AM (7) No Data
2 AM (6) May 31 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.75 (1007) WNW 5 light rain
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dem05
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I did find the final floater images of Alma are still on the server under the link I had for the shortwave. It does show how the center of Alma was obsorbed "for lunch" into the overall circulation of the monsoon trough. Also, you may note at least one lower level vorticity in the extreme SW Hondoran waters (which was later absorbed as well) as well as a mid level circulation around 18N and 85W (Which was the beginnings of Arthur).
To help in identifyting the remenant low of Alma, click the radio button "Trop Fcst Pts." at the top of the image:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/loop-ir2.html
Edited by dem05 (Sat May 31 2008 02:05 PM)
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HanKFranK
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my contention that this thing is really alma.. is because the mid-level vorticity center from the storm which did cross central america.. emerged off the north shore of honduras yesterday. there was a surface spin up present in the area, and a sort of trough axis extending northeast and tangled with that advancing tropical wave. yeah, maybe the surface low did sort of wash out against the base of the low-trough fixture to the northeast, but that mid-level center was clearly present during the entire crossing, and is what 'arthur' just developed underneath during the last 24 hours.
i get it, this is fuzzy territory. if a tropical cyclone center decays at the surface, and redevelops in the same general area (i.e. erin 2001).. is it a different storm? the mitch and examples for a storm that pretty much washes out over land but has it's mid-level vorticity induce another system. remember TD 10 and ? the gate has swung both ways, but the example was from a several-days dead system.. not something that developed 24 hours later along the vorticity track of a previous system. as far as basin-crossing storms.. since the new rules about name retention were established earlier this decade, they haven't held up with systems like iris and its pacific version, or with our most recent example alma. it does sort of load the numbers a bit when a system that is directly attributable to a weakened storm crosses basins and causes another 'storm', when it isn't clear that it isn't just a reintensified version of the same parent system.
interesting that the same sort of controversy exists around tornado counts. if a parent mesocyclone drops four tornadoes in quick succession... is it the same tornado lifting and touching, or are they four discrete tornadoes to tally? how can you tell if a tornado jumped six times if there were no spotter reports and a bunch of straight line wind damage mixed in, if you're trying to count every touchdown as a discrete tornado? i've been paying attention to this due to all the severe weather we've had recently (and the crazy tornado numbers caused by storms in 2004)... and seen obvious differences from one NWS reporting area to another. tornado reporting is way up in recent years, and it's hard to nail down long term statistics for either tornadoes or tropical cyclones with that kind of observation difference built into the tallies over recent decades.
anyhow, lots of stuff to grumble about. lots of conflicting voices and opinions.
HF 1909z31may
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cieldumort
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Quote:
The fact of the matter is that under current storm naming protocols/rules, if a named storm travels from one body of water, across land, and then into another body of water, the storm is renamed. It doesn't matter if the storm maintains itself or not, so in this instance, the origins of Arthur are irrelevant in its naming.
This is actually a very common misunderstanding.
A couple of years ago the policy was changed. If and when a system crosses into another basin, even by way of land, as long as its core remains intact and is very much the nucleus for renewed development, then it retains the same name.
This was not the case this time, however. As an example of what happened today, this situation is not at all dissimilar to TD 10 being dropped and replaced with TD12 (Katrina ATL 2005).
The core surface circulation of Alma did in fact wash out over the mountains of Central America, while much of its moisture and related mid-level vorticity went on to merge with a preexisting surface low which was birthed by the same parent broad area of low pressure. Additionally, it is likely that at least one approaching easterly wave interacted with this soup in a fashion that helped to get the new spins going, which finally took shape in what is now (officially) Tropical Storm Arthur.
Consider this from 's Special Discussion Number 1
Quote:
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT DESIGNATED TROPICAL STORM ALMA BECAUSE THE
SURFACE CENTER OF ALMA DISSIPATED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
AMERICA YESTERDAY.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
This is actually a very common misunderstanding.
A couple of years ago the policy was changed. If and when a system crosses into another basin, even by way of land, as long as its core remains intact and is very much the nucleus for renewed development, then it retains the same name.
I just googled this and you're correct and I was mistaken. I thought the policy was changed a couple of years ago to provide for renaming the system, but I got it backwards 
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Storm Hunter
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I think got it right again.. although i think it may have been a TS a few hrs earlier...
"THIS SYSTEM IS NOT DESIGNATED TROPICAL STORM ALMA BECAUSE THE
SURFACE CENTER OF ALMA DISSIPATED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
AMERICA YESTERDAY. "
agree there too.. the spin we all saw on cross to the north was a mid-upper lever low... the surface from what i could tell got torn apart as it crossed the mountains.... and the mid-upper low moved to the north under the anti-cyclone flow aloft... i think the ship report and buoy report are what made make the call. Welcome to the season of 2008... which officially starts in 12 hrs.... (time to tweak my seasonal forecast now!)
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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dem05
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I think about 99% of us missed the memo on the newer naming protocals. Just curious Hugh, do you still have that link handy? That would definately be a "for the good of the order" link to post as our season is just getting underway.
In the mean time, the models do indicate that the ridging should remain pretty strong. Maybe some additional development in the BOC after the Yucatan crossing. However, this does not look like a US threat for the time being (next 4 days or so). If the ridge persists as indicated, I'd expect it to follow the forecast track and eventually wash out in Mexico. Too bad, cuase Florida could use the benificial rain of a very weak system.
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Storm Hunter
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by the way... is up to something again at the end of the short range.... looks like we may get some left over mositure pulled up into the gulf coast?
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Hugh
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Here's a link to the PDF:
http://www.ofcm.gov/nhop/08/pdf/03-chap3-08.pdf
On Page 5 is the following:
The following rules apply for tropical cyclones passing from one basin to another: Retain
the name if a tropical cyclone passes from one basin into another basin as a tropical cyclone; i.e.,
advisories are continuous. An unnamed tropical depression will also retain its number (e.g.
Tropical Depression Six-E remains Tropical Depression Six-E) if it crosses into another area of
responsibility. For unnamed tropical depressions moving from west to east across 180°, CPHC
will use the associated Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s (JTWC) number and indicate in
parentheses following the number. For named systems, CPHC will use the associated (RSMC)
Tokyo name and provide the associated number in parentheses.
Within a basin, if the remnant of a tropical cyclone redevelops into a tropical cyclone, it is
assigned its original number or name. If the remnants of a former tropical cyclone regenerate in
a new basin, the regenerated tropical cyclone will be given a new designation.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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pschex
Unregistered
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Too bad the high that is keeping us HOT and DRY won't budge too soon- we need some moisture from Arthur
When is it forecasted to move on....
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HCW
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Loc: Mobile,AL
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It's going to take 1 to 2 storms for that ridge to break down and allow storms to head more north . This is first tropical storm to form in may since 1981. Can I change my forecast numbers since it looks like they are going to name everything this year . Looking at the ascat there are no winds over 29kt so I am not sure why they named this system .
http://www.knmi.nl/scatterometer/ascat_osi_25_prod/products/20080531_15_11.gif
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Over 4,000 members and now on a new server
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
Edited by HCW (Sat May 31 2008 04:26 PM)
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dem05
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Arthur is likely continuing his treck across the Yucatan. But hmmm...To early to make such a call, so here's something to watch over the next few hours: the area around 18.5N, 87.5W. With Arther embedded in a continued larger scale envelope, it would not be impossible to see a center re-formation in this proximity. There may be some signs that this may be trying to occur. We'll find out for sure in the coming hours.
Link (Shortwave): http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html
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DarleneCane
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Loc: Miami Beach, FL
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1. Excellent point by Hank Frank with regard to his analogy to Twister Outbreaks. Good point.
2. Often Tropical Storms are simply large messy areas of moisture with strong winds, low pressure and more than one center. One wins, some lose and sometimes energy hands off to a newer stronger center. Hard to say here what Alma was eating for lunch as the webcam couldn't pick up the details and the devil is often in the details.
3. Y'all might wanna up your numbers if this is an example of how things are gonna be at the . Not Old School but if you have a large area of severe weather with winds higher than 40mph still over water and gusting to the 50s isn't it prudent to warn people as that is theirjob. Tell it like it is I say.
4. If conditions and various imagery don't exist for Arthur to pull north or nnw aren't y'all curious what the was eating that kept making it repeat that same forecast over and over? Got to give it credit as so far it was on the money with a named storm. Though I think 6/1 and 6/2 was when it got interesting.
5. Looks like one big frontal trough in ways with Arthur sitting in the caboose.
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