Old Sailor
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From what I see on the both 00Z and 600Z and the 00Z shows nothing close the the USA. Nor does the other model at this time.
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craigm
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Quote:
From what I see on the both 00Z and 600Z and the 00Z shows nothing close the the USA. Nor does the other model at this time.
CMC has a closed low showing up about 6 days out. doesn't. Keep in mind it's the 
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMCTROPATL_0z/cmc144.html
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Why I'm here:
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Quote:
Quote:
From what I see on the both 00Z and 600Z and the 00Z shows nothing close the the USA. Nor does the other model at this time.
CMC has a closed low showing up about 6 days out. doesn't. Keep in mind it's the
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMCTROPATL_0z/cmc144.html
Re check the graph which doesn show it.
[url=http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc/fcst/index.html]
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doug
Weather Analyst
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The has stated this whole conglomeration across Mexico and back out into the E. Pac. is a trough, and the latest visible is indicating a new spin in the E. Pac. Looks a lot like Alma did just before she was officially designated an investigation area.
I personally don't see the W. Carribean throwing a low out toward the U. S. from this, especially if another LLC develops in E.Pac. As for the the closed low it presents spawns from a weakness in the Bahamas, which as of now is not evident. So far it stands alone.
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doug
Edited by doug (Mon Jun 02 2008 04:19 PM)
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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great loop craig
i think thats a pretty impressive wave with a great twist for this time of year and where is the shear that usually blasts it away from the islands and blows them apart in june and july?
as for the canadian.. i respect it enough to think more on the matter
miami has rain today, lots of moisture, lots of pop up showers turning into big tstorms... not normal afternoon tstorms
the area is juiced up from moisture possibly from the top of arthur that blew off the top of it..
there is a weakness in the high here... could this wave make it up here in 4 or 5 days.. never occured to me the wave could play a part but that wave is tightly wound and everyone is acting like its invisible
thought it would smash into south america a few days ago.. now maybe not
the tropical discussion mentions it too
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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craigm
Storm Tracker
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Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
From what I see on the both 00Z and 600Z and the 00Z shows nothing close the the USA. Nor does the other model at this time.
CMC has a closed low showing up about 6 days out. doesn't. Keep in mind it's the
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMCTROPATL_0z/cmc144.html
Re check the graph which doesn show it.
[url=http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc/fcst/index.html]
O.S. This is bordering on chat so this will be my last post regarding this before I PM.
I pulled this excerpt off the link you provided which may explain why it's not showing up. Great link by the way.
'Why aren't all the closed SLP minima on the model analyses available for phase diagram analysis?
A cyclone will not be analyzed on the phase diagrams if: 1) the cyclone is currently too close to the edge of the model domain, 2) the cyclone does not last for 24h, or 3) the cyclone has a minimum SLP > 1018mb'
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JoshuaK
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It looks as if there is a little bit of a spin located within the previously strong convenction that is heading north along the eastern Yucatan coastline towards Cozumel. And yes, I can see a very definite looking spin directly west of where the Guatemala/Mexican border meets the E. Pacific. This is a very interestingly placed trough, IMO.
EDIT: Took a look on the current image, and the E. Pac circulation shows up really well, although it doesn't appear to be a closed circulation as of yet:
Edited by JoshuaK (Mon Jun 02 2008 04:59 PM)
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Visible imagery still shows a circulation centre associated with the remnants of Arthur inland over the Yucatan due south of Chilitepec. This circulation is not moving southwest as forecast, but appears rather to be moving west or just north of west. Will be interesting to see if it shunts nearer the BOC coastline, and if so whether it can kick of any convection over the BOC. The whole disturbance is still setting of some pretty intense convection over the Gulf of Honduras spreading up the eastern Yucatan coast. However, the drier air over the BOC may inhibit convection from developing widely there. As a side note, Invest 91E is up as a result of the remnants of both Alma and Arthur.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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JoshuaK
Weather Guru
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Took another look at the visible loop on the GOES 30-min update floater, and it seems I was delusional about the spin off the Yucatan coastline. However, it appears that on it's present course, the center of spin associated with the remains of Arthur will start skirting the BOC coastline with a few hours, and with most of the dry air dipping down on the west side of the BOC, there may be a little room for some convection development.
The circulation area in the gulf of Tehuantepec in the East Pac looks more promising, but appears to be drifting eastwards torwards land, perhaps being nudged along by the broader circulation of Arthur's remains.
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cieldumort
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The consolidating LLCC in the extreme eastern Pacific has just been tagged ( Invest 91E. ) and already is wrapping itself up almost seemingly as quickly as both Alma & Arthur before it.
This feature, probably already very nearly on the cusp of being a numberable cyclone, could significantly disrupt or alter the short-term chances of any significant development over on the Caribbean side.
It goes without saying that this overall region remains a real hotbed for tropical cyclogenesis.
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Just a reminder to all that, for the remainder of the season, comments on EASTPAC systems belong in the Other Storm Basins forum and not on the Main Page thread.
Thanks,
ED
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Well the latest visible imagery and loops show the centre associated with Arthurs remnants approaching the coast of the BOC between Chilitepec and Ciudad Del Carmen. Little in the way of convective activity over the BOC associated with the circulation, but a small area very near the centre.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Hurricane29
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We had a similar monsoon trough in the area back in 2005 and we saw we happened.Lets hope its not the case this year.
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doug
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Yesterday I downplayed the Bahamas reference in the model because there was nothing there...however my interest was peaked a bit and note today there is at least some signs of upper level activity beginning to play there, Some of the energy there was responsible for frisky TStorms across the lower peninsula in the last couple of days. Maybe this bears watching after all.
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doug
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scottsvb
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I wouldnt put much stock in anything developing in the bahamas. There is alot of high winds aloft and a upper low is forecasted to develop in a few days off Florida. Hopefully that upper low will move to the eastern gulf and give florida alot of rain!!! LOL. So far the rains in florida have been mainly over the southern half of the state and east coast. Tampa, Sarasota....very dry!!
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Climatology wouldn't favor anything developing over the Bahams this early in the season. I am nevertheless waiting that something can come out of this trough(?) across the western & central carribean - especially this time of the year.
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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doug
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I don't see the whole pattern being conducive to anything in the near term actually...no sign of the big anticyclone breaking down, which will prevent any of the disturbed activity in the Carribean coming north. I agree the upper air motion across the Bahamas is not favorable. Unless the high moves NE and out to sea a bit, the p[attern will be unfavorable, IMHO.
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doug
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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The wave around 32-35W and 2-15N appears to be getting a little better organised. It has had a consistently good structure but little in the way of convection. However, today has seen a weak circulation develop along the axis near 9N. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased near this circulation too, and the wave certainly has potential. shows a weak low pressure area tracking just northeast of the Islands and flirting with the Bahamas in about 4 to 5 days, but cant see much other model support for this to do much as yet.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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pschex
Unregistered
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To my untrained eyes, it loks like the gulf looks to be a bit more soupy then the last 3-4 days. Clouds are slowly creeping northward and more are forming. As you can tell, I am wishcasting for some moisture in south Louisiana!
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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That is an interesting looking feature, but a bit early in the season for something to develop in that area. I'd take it as a bad omen if something did develop mid-Atlantic this early in the season. Also, the remnant circulation from Arthur can still be seen along the coast of Mexico at the SW BOC. There is still a lot of unsettled weather in that area moving toward the BOC and western GOM. Could be interesting there as the surface high centered over west central FL begins to move to the NE over the next few days.
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Michael
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