Ed Dunham
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Today Marks the first day of the 2008 Altantic Hurricane Season. It starts off this morning with Arthur still classified as a Tropical Storm, dumping heavy rain over Central America.
Names for storms this year are: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gustav, Hanna, Ike, Josephine, Kyle, Lili, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paloma, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, Wilfred
Atlantic Hurricanes can affect anywhere along the eastern coastline and Gulf of Mexico, and even cause a great deal of inland flooding and some times wind damage well inland of where a system makes landfall.
Here's a plot of all storms from 1851-2004, see if your area is in it:
Currently one of flhurricane's image servers is down and we are working to get that back up, so the site may be appear jerky at times until we get all the image servers back online. Hopefully very soon.
If you would like to help out site costs this year for replacement hardware to keep the site running smooth please check out our Donations page. Thanks for all who have helped. We'll be tracking the storms and offering up more discussion with hopefully less unneeded hype.
For Florida, there is no Hurricane "Sales Tax Holiday" this year. This should not stop you from making sure all your supplies are there, and in working order.
As always, be hurricane prepared! And always, always, take the word of the National Hurricane Center over anything you read on the Internet, here or otherwise.
May 31st Update
Tomorrow is the first day of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, which lasts until November 30th, but a day before it starts we already have our first named storm of the year...
Invest 90L was upgraded to minimal Tropical Storm Arthur just as he made landfall along the northern coast of Belize at 31/17Z. Although first forecasts move the system westward as a Tropical Depression into the Bay of Campeche in a couple of days, the system, under increased ridging to the north, is now in western Belize moving to the southwest - perhaps even south southwest. With the current movement, the chances of Tropical Depression Arthur reaching the southern Gulf of Mexico become increasingly remote and the system will probably die out over western Belize or the mountains of northern Guatemala.
Heavy rainfall and flash flooding are likely over the southern Yucatan, Belize and Guatemala. The highest sustained winds reported from Phillip Goldston Intl. Airport near Belize City were 12mph although reports of tropical storm force winds were reported along the northern coast of Belize at landfall.
Thus starts the 2008 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season - a day early - with the somewhat uncommon event of a tropical cyclone in May. Please use common sense and courtesy in your posts this season - see my Met Blog for guidance. Looks like its going to be a long and interesting season of storm tracking.
ED
Edited by MikeC (Sun Jun 01 2008 07:52 AM)
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Storm Hunter
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Arthur still a TS... in the 5pm pkg.
IN ADDITION...NEW CONVECTIVE CELLS ARE
DEVELOPING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. BASED ON THE CLOUD PATTERN
ARTHUR IS KEPT AS A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM AT THIS TIME...
ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6
KNOTS. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP
THE CYCLONE MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE OR EVEN INLAND OVER MEXICO.....
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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weatherguy08
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I find it almost scary how accurate the models were on Arthur. I clearly remember all of us talking about the potential for something to develop last Sunday and Monday, then come Saturday, the first named storm of the system has developed. I'm not totally sure if this was an "accident" by the models or if they really caught on to the developing the system, but am not one to believe that all major models would develop a low this early and predict it so well a week out by total accident. This is something we are going to need to remember throughout the season, that we cannot simply right off a system a week before, especially if models are consistently in agreement with each other.
On a related note, this was from the Saturday PM AFD issued by the NWS Office in Lake Charles, LA:
"WITH THE RIDGE OUT OF THE WAY [next weekend]...THIS SCENARIO WILL OPEN
THE GULF TO TROPICAL DISTURBANCES/MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN. BOTH
THE AND ...THOUGH DIFFERING FROM RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH
OTHER...ARE INSISTENT THAT AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL
EVENTUALLY LIFT OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE GULF. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TRENDS."
The HPC said something similar:
"WHILE TS ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA ON WED DAY 4...THE AND STILL SHOW AN AREA OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND A POSSIBLE LOW CENTER IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON FRI."
After looking at the models, the shows the ridge over the GOM and the holding through Tuesday. On Tuesday, a low pressure system develops over KS/CO/OK Panhandle area and moves east. Then on Wednesday, a second area of low pressure forms in a similar area then also moves to the east. The combination of these two system results in weakening of the ridge and pressure falls over the GOM, thus "opening the door" for systems to move into the GOM. The shows a very similar situation. The shows falling surface pressures over the southern GOM in nine to ten days (i.e. Jun 9-10). The only shows a broad area of low pressure over the Gulf, but it does show several consecutive low pressure system moving through the middle part of the which would "keep the door open" for anything to come up into the Gulf.
In summary, I'm not really saying if anything will develop, but the patterns appear to be in place to allow something to move northwards.
Edited by weatherguy08 (Sat May 31 2008 06:27 PM)
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DarleneCane
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Seems to me if Arthur was the type of guy who left with the girl who brought her then he will at some point go northwards at some point as the had maintained that eventual ending though not sure how Arthur gets back to water in the short term. The high in the GOM is currently building down towards the BOC so I don't see how that scenario of Arthur doing the old infamous BOC track for early storms. and both have Arthur moving very slowly, crawling so if part of it hangs around for the next impulse that could lift it.. a lot of "ifs" and "maybes" if you ask me.
Interesting to see what if anything happens. Either way we have used up one name before June even happened.
Wasn't too soon this year.
Question?
Could moisture flying off the top of Arthur help to erode the strong high to it's north or northeast a bit? It has always been a large area of moisture.
Unlike the small storms of last year may favor larger, wetter storms.
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weatherguy08
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I am about 90% sure that we can write off Arthur for a U.S. landfall at this point. Models are in agreement that the ridge over the GOM and will hold through at least Wednesday. By that time, Arthur will probably be either dissipating or dissipated over inland Mexico, but as I said in an earlier post, the models show the ridge eroding during the late part of next week which would allow for storms to move northwards. Also, the long-range shows the ridge remaining weak for some time. If anything develops near where Arthur did or in the GOM, a U.S. landfall would be more plausible.
I know I posted this earlier, but just to reiterate what the HPC said:
"WHILE TS ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA ON WED DAY 4...THE AND STILL SHOW AN AREA OF
UNSETTLED WX AND A PSBL LOW CENTER IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON FRI."
Edit: changed "week" to "weak"
Edited by weatherguy08 (Sat May 31 2008 09:18 PM)
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LoisCane
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Yeah, one would think Arthur would fall apart being still a weak storm however it has a large pocket and most of it is still over water feeding it so... seems to be there still.
This loop shows him oozing his way back to water.
When you look at this whole system.. Alma/Arthur or which ever center emerges it is as if it oozed more than moved.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/atlantic/movies/wg8vor3/wg8vor3java.html
And.. would say it is going to make it ... go figure.
See what the models say tomorrow morning. See where the center of Arthur is tomorrow morning.
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dem05
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Arthur continues to show hints of a re-formation in the Gulf of Hondoras (Western Caribbean) this morning. At this time, Arthur's surface circulation over the Yucatan is still trackable on the shortwave...but it is very weak and diffuse. Mean time, the banding feature over the Gulf of Hondoras that was producing the tropical storm force winds no longer appears as a banding like feature. In itself, the area has taken on the appearance of a mid-level rotation with some of it's own banding. That said, it would not be a surprise to see Arthur re-form eastward over the extreme western Caribbean. This is were the energy has remained within Arthur and the overall circulation of this ongoing trough. Also, the evolution of a small and very weak cut off low may be trying to evolve north of the Yucatan Penninsula per the Water Vapor. Mean time, Vapor also shows that if Arthur does maintain himself and makes it to the Bay of Campeechee, the air over there is very dry. Looks like that would not bode well for re-development. Today will be an interesting day if Arthur does indeed re-form in the Gulf of Hondoras (Western Caribbean).
I will let you judge for yourself:
Link (Rainbow): http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html
Link (Shortwave): http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html
Link (Water Vapor): http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html
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dem05
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Just a post 5AM Advisory update and a fun point of conversation:
Per the Advisory, the is still tracking the diffuse center of Arthur over the Yucatan and maintaining him as a tropical stom due to the weather in the Gulf of Hondoras. Per yesterday's discussion on the previous forum thread, many believed that Alma's mid level rotation made it to the GOH and was at least partly responsible for spawning Arthur. Likewise, some may contend that as the surface center of our current "Arthur" has moved inland, the mid level center stayed behind in the GOH as a component of the larger trough system.
As we discussed, naming convention rules state that due to the loss of a surface ciculation of Alma over Central America, the system in the Western Caribbean was definately Arthur. If the does track the surface rotation of Arthur to spindown over Mexico, and the banding over the GOH does evolve into a new low level vorticity...I wonder how this naming convention would apply. Apparently, Arthur is being maintained as a tropical storm due to this GOH weather (which may be enough to to consider it a relocation if a new surface center does evolve in the Gulf of Hondoras). Likewise, if the surface center is tracked to dissapation and a new center forms in the GOH, I wonder if the would be forced to move onto the letter B based on their established naming rules. Interesting...
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flanewscameraman
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I have a general question here for those with knowledge. Meteorologically, if that is the correct spelling, how are the tropics, i.e. the Caribbean, , Atlantic, setting up this year compared to the active years of 2004, 2005. I do not believe that the formation of Arthur(Alma) is an indication one way or the other of an active season, but I am curious to see if the elements are appearing that may indicate a more robust season. Thank's
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craigm
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Studying the models and sat images over the last hour , try this theory.
Models verify with Art dissipating inland while moving west and remnants moving more northerly with the weakening ridge possibly reforming in the SW BOC. In the mean time something spins off of Art's wake on the east side of Honduras as evidenced by the strong persistent convection that keeps popping in that area. This early season storm is reminiscient of a pattern I noticed in 04/05 where systems seemed to linger for days in weak steering environments.
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Hugh
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Quote:
Apparently, Arthur is being maintained as a tropical storm due to this GOH weather (which may be enough to to consider it a relocation if a new surface center does evolve in the Gulf of Hondoras). Likewise, if the surface center is tracked to dissapation and a new center forms in the GOH, I wonder if the would be forced to move onto the letter B based on their established naming rules. Interesting...
I had not considered the naming issue, because, well, I just hadn't thought about it, but you bring up a good point of discussion, at the least. It would not be the first time I LLC had reformed and forced the to track a named storm from a different location... so in that respect, assuming the isn't so naiive as to track the remnant low to dissipation when the new low is already in the formative stages, the name Arthur would be maintained. IF, however, the does continue to track the "original" LLC to dissipation (which it seems like they are apt to do, from the 5am discussion), and THEN they decide to pick up on the developing low in the GOH... the naming would be a matter of significant debate, and largely one of timing. If a 6 hour span elapses between the discontinuance of advisories on "Arthur", and the issuance of advisories on "GOH System", I could see the deciding (incorrectly, in my opinion) that the system was a new entity and warranted designation as "TD Two"/"TS Bertha". This could lead to a bit of a comical post-season analysis, where someone finally determines that Alma underwent not one, but two, sex/name changes.
ETA: 11am advisory downgrades Arthur, and says the circulation center is difficult to locate. *sigh*... try looking in the Gulf of Honduras.
ETA2: Is it just me, or is the GOES satellite down? SSD is not up-to-date.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Sun Jun 01 2008 10:55 AM)
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weathernet
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Quote:
I have a general question here for those with knowledge. Meteorologically, if that is the correct spelling, how are the tropics, i.e. the Caribbean, , Atlantic, setting up this year compared to the active years of 2004, 2005. I do not believe that the formation of Arthur(Alma) is an indication one way or the other of an active season, but I am curious to see if the elements are appearing that may indicate a more robust season. Thank's
Interesting to watch Arthur evolve ( or spin down ), along with all the associated meteorological debates on names, origin, and future motion. Dem, I too had thought Arthur had that look of trying to possibly "spin down" a new center from a mid level, on its east quadrant, but looking at the overall large envelope system that it is, am leaning more towards the likelihood of the overall system spinning down while over land, and eventually late today/tonight whatever convection over the W. Carib. to finally fall off as convergent inflow from the weekening LLC decreases. At this point, will defer to this forum's moderator discretion ( in keeping this post reply here or to moved to another forum ). Does Arthur's early emergence and/or the current atmospheric conditions indicate what this season may be to come?
With regards to the question posed as to what indication that this early named storm, along with the current overall conditions or appearance of the , SST's, Surface Pressures, Upper Air, etc., this is what I too am more curious about. I tend to pay attention to the origin, motion, size, of early systems as kind of a "read" on the upcoming Hurricane Season. To me, early Sub tropical systems ( baroclinic or cut off lows ) indicate seasons with less "true tropical systems" or greater "weaker" storms. Arthur was certainly NOT this, and though weak due to land proximity, certainly tropical in nature. Does Alma's far Eastern Pacific origin ( or Arthur's Carib. emergence ) pertend to the overall W. Atlantic long wave pattern, thus better tipping our hand if or where latter storms are likely to form or recurve? For me, not enough to draw on, but I will extend this thought............. Arthur was a W. Carib. system. Origins and tracks of Atlantic tropical systems seem to occur in one or several "clusters". Contrary to last year, active Caribbean years often do not bode well for the Gulf States. My own assumpion is that we will certainly see additional tropical cyclone activity in the Central and Western Caribbean, and that some area of coastline between Florida and Texas is certain to be affected. I'm not willing to even speculate yet, if affected mean weak tropical systems droping copious amounts of rain, or one or more major hurricanes - still too early to tell.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Today is June 1st... All you Weather People should know the importance of this day... HURRICANE SEASON!!! We did have Arthur that sprung up yesterday from the remnents of Alma on the pacific side which came ashore in Nicaragua Friday, moved across Honduras and came out disorganzied just east of Belieze..but it gained enough organization again with bouy and quicksat data showing 44kt winds becoming a TS Arthur. Since there is a big mid level high over the NGOM Arthur quickly went into Belieze and S MX and is now a weak depression. It's highly doubtful he will make it back into the BOC but not impossible. Anyways nothing else really out there to really warrent. Long range models are useless after 5 days. Conditions by weds might be better to pick up on a trough near Cuba and a upper low east of the bahamas...sometimes on the southern end of a trough of low pressure a circulation might form....and if the upper low moves out..conditions can improve on a system. Right now, thats guesscasting and thats not in our Metoerology tests right? lol.
Anyways its good to see the Vets on here are back for another year. This is site probably has the most knowledgeable people giving us ideas and forecasts with even METS coming on. Lets do our best at giving the public a heads up on info,links, and the general aspects of atmospheric sciences that give us our passion for weather/hurricanes. Hope we have a great year!
scottsvb
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LoisCane
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Convection for over 18 hours in the GOH and then suddenly it begins to wane and it flares up in the Pacific. Still a twist there, still signs of circulation on the East Side... and on West Side getting color on IR..
Going to be a wait and see for the next 12 hours to see what Alma/Arthur wants to do and what says about it though I imagine they will wait a good 24 before saying anything specific as it's all a fluid situation.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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HanKFranK
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i'm not the first person to mention it by far, but the is still consistently (albeit in different ways) trying to take something up from the general location of the yucatan in about a week. the disturbed weather currently there just sort of persists, though i don't expect the will be issuing many more advisories on arthur. at the outer ranges of their runs several of the other globals are hinting that the disturbed weather will be there at least... whether on the caribbean side or the campeche side. or maybe the pacific side? expect it's a pattern-feedback sort of thing... synoptically something wants to be there, so the models are picking it up. noteworthy that they aren't doing a whole lot as far as strength goes.
check out the and if you want the zanier solutions to goggle at. sort of the humor corner for now, but every now and then those oddball solutions work out.
mostly fun for now... cause you can't expect anything really fearsome this time of year. ghastly exceptions like audrey notwithstanding... it's just june.
HF 0208z02june
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weathernet
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Hank, your not kidding either....., except I don't take the lightly, so much as I certainly do the Canadian model. But, I agree with you that "something" really does want to come out of this soup. 18Z , which I thought remarkedly picked up on all this mess early on, does indeed show yet something else moving north from Yucatan in the 180 hr. time frame. So, just to be silly......., what are the odds of this mess sticking around for say, 2 weeks longer? Maybe out of all this, we might see the "grandson of Alma" - and this same gyre will be spinning off Cristobal. We'd really have something odd to talk about!
Hey folks.....enjoy the science; how often in the first week of June, can you really claim to already be getting "Storm Punch Drunk".
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RedingtonBeachGuy
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Quote:
several of the other globals are hinting that the disturbed weather will be there at least...
Hey all.. is one thing, but shows, shows.. well, it shows a very disturbed weather pattern in the Gulf as well in 132 hours. Hmm..
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LoisCane
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You know when more than one model shows a chance for development it begs watching.
Canadian shouldn't be so pushed aside as it was accurate often last year at predicting things.
When looking at the water vapor loop it's obviously that there is a weakness forming in the East Gulf and if anything does form down there the door would or could be open to a more northerly.. and later northeasterly turn IF anything happened.
Way too many ifs... see what the models show tomorrow.
As for the A storms.. would like to say Bon Voyage but I only bet on sure things and nothing is sure there.
Impressed they wrote an advisory on it at all tonight.. makes you wonder. Maybe they too are wondering on the models.
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Storm Hunter
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well the 00Z jumped to a low popping up on the north side of the islands out in the atlantic and move it into SE Florida in a few days... its jumping around from the last two runs... to me that means its up to something... 00 not really sure whats going on with it... kinda goes quite in short range.... one thing for sure, i am impressed with that LARGE wave about to run into northern South America tomorrow... wonder if it will move up into the Caribbean later this week? Big wave
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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craigm
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Quote:
well the 00Z jumped to a low popping up on the north side of the islands out in the atlantic and move it into SE Florida in a few days... its jumping around from the last two runs... to me that means its up to something... 00 not really sure whats going on with it... kinda goes quite in short range.... one thing for sure, i am impressed with that LARGE wave about to run into northern South America tomorrow... wonder if it will move up into the Caribbean later this week? Big wave
I don't trust the at all. Over the years it always seems to develop systems too aggressively. Although I.m sure it's picking up on something synoptically.
I think it would be great if there was a grading system for the models on past performance or maybe one already exists?
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