Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995

Yep. It's official. Tropical Storm Boris has formed in the EastPac.

Yesterday, although invest 94E was organizing quite nicely, it lacked the sustained, deep convection required to earn it the 'depression' moniker.

But then, starting around 05Z last night, a *huge* convective flareup began in the SW quad and quickly blossomed into a potent band of very strong thunderstorms, wrapping around into the east semicircle and pulling into and over the LLC of the disturbance.

It didn't take too many hours of this deep sustained activity near the developing warm core to lower pressures just a tad further, and viola! Tropical Depression 2E was declared at 5am EST. True cyclogenesis likely occurred some hours earlier, as the tremendous release of latent heat of condensation was converted to mechanical wind energy that eventually worked its' way down to the surface boundary layer, and a tropical cyclone is born. One of nature's most amazing phenomena.

And that intensely strong convective burst has continued unabated since then, with extremely cold cloud tops of -80 C and colder. This has apparently dropped the surface pressure even more and is reflected in the wind field stiffening to sustained tropical storm force with even stronger gusts below the strongest 'supercell' thunderstorms, as you would expect.

The initial intensity forecast for TD 2E was for it to max out as a minimal TS, or 35 kts. But now, as the storm is rapidly gathering steam, the experts' diagnostic reasoning is calling for Boris to strengthen up to 50 kts., and sustain that intensity for at least 3 advisories.

But, as is usually the case with EastPac systems, the NHC advisories on newly developing systems tends to underestimate to forecasted peak intensity, especially for the first 4 or 5 advisories after a TD has formed. I've noticed this a lot. Intensity forecasting is very tricky business, especially with all the model inputs that are considered and all the vagaries of mother nature, sometimes throwing us a curve when the models were expecting the slider.

And I don't think it's out of the question for Boris to earn the status as the first hurricane of the northern hemisphere season, typhoons notwithstanding. Especially if it tracks more westerly than forecast and stays within the confines of the crucial 26 C isotherm and the impending northerly sheer isn't prohibitive. I think a hurricane more likely than not. We'll see.



Per the latest advisory discussion from the NHC:

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"AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO BASED ON CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS IS THAT BORIS COULD STRENGTHEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 36 HRS AND REACH A HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY."

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Here's a link to the University of Hawaii's Weather Server, which provides unique imagery of many basins. I like to put it in 'Rock' mode and slow the animation speed just a tad. Enjoy!

http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/sata...amp;overlay=off

Anyways, this is really a no-big-deal storm in a no-big-deal basin (except when the cyclones impact Mexico or Central America), and it's just more 'interesting', than anything, to watch the cyclogenesis process take place and follow along to see what becomes of the systems.

The very best that Boris could do is bring some much welcomed and beneficial rains to the Islands as a decaying remnant circulation in about a week to 10 days time frame.

And keeping an eye on Invest 95E, too, as this system seems to have a pretty good shot at storm formation as well. A TCFA was recently issued, and it's convection is also on the increase. This system is closer to the Central Pacific, and would be in our 'neighborhood' even before ex-Boris would arrive. Oh, and did I mention? We need the rain !!

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Is it possible that the MJO is in the area of both of these storms (Boris and Christina)?

They seemed to have spun up fast in unison as if something there suddenly changed after a quiet period.

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