Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
|
|
by the way... did anyone see the 00Z NAM?
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/nam/00/index_slp_m_loop.shtml
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Jul 20 2008 12:58 PM)
|
rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 428
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
|
|
It seems the low is working its way through Florida- but will it end out in the Gulf Stream? I see 94L is looking like it is strengthening. i can't wait to see some modeling- but will it be subject to shearing if it goes WNW?
--------------------
________2024 Forecast: 24/14/7________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
|
allan
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
|
|
Doesn't 94L remind you of last years 94L in September?? I find it odd.. This certain system became one of the most strongest Hurricane in the ocean. The Hurricane developed rapidly and unexpectidly, when models had no idea it was even there in the first place. It seems like deja vu with this 94L over here. It seems like shear has weakened in it's path, well actually it's just moving north. Recon should find at least a TD if not a weak TS. It seems like with the numbers as high as 2.5, it's either a TD or s storm right now.
--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5
|
allan
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
|
|
94L has gotten much better organized and might I point out what scottsvb said earlier that it won't do anything until it reaches 70W or 72W which he was right. It had to get away from South America to organize. Earlier I though a new low was developing to the west of the convection, though it seems I was wrong and the low might be under the heaviest convection. Navy has it located 71W and 13.7N. Models continue to push northward and now put Texas and even Luisiana on the possibility. Still too far out but as 94L slowly starts to organize, we will know more on the track, a Tropical Depression can form at any given time according to the latest discussion from the . Basicaly just needs a closed low and there, you have a TD.
If you are going to discuss model output, put it in the Forecast Lounge. Post moved.)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Jul 19 2008 12:41 AM)
|
weatherguy08
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 60
Loc: Miami, Fla.
|
|
The models take 94L on a path very similar to Hurricane Emily back in 2005. She took a very "low" path and went across the Yucatan Peninsula then into Mexico just south of the US-Mexico border. Coincidently, Emily was about this time of year (mid July). I also have been noticing that the models have been gradually shifting farther and farther north. It doesn't appear that this is going to be like Dean or Felix and take a straight-line path into central America. Assuming it develops, this could be one for the Gulf Coast to keep an eye on.
|
cieldumort
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 2470
Loc: Austin, Tx
|
|
Re: 94L
Models are finally starting to initialize this disturbance correctly. By my own best forecasting ability, I'm still on a 75% chance that it becomes a TS within the next 6 days (probably sooner, if it does) and a 40% probability of it becoming a hurricane within 6 days (and probably sooner, if it does), and a 10% chance of it becoming a major hurricane within 6 days. Feeling vindicated so far tonight... in fact, just cranked out this whopper...certainly not the sort of thing we would like to see verified.
TD 3 should have a good chance of earning a name, provided it stays just to the right enough (and offshore!) to avoid ingesting too much of that dry air from its left, while enjoying just enough interaction with the gulf stream. In fact, it appears that it could simply ride the stream long enough.. and pick up a pace just fast enough.. to have reasonably low net-effective shear while ingesting plenty of gulf stream energy juice. While that's not even in the same galaxy as the current official forecast, and judging by how slowly its been getting its act together, looks like a bit of a stretch right now, I wouldn't write that possibility off. We've seen a few gulf streamers really pop this way from time to time.
3 AM EDT Addendum:
Sustained tropical storm-force winds are likely now occurring within 94L:
Invest 94L Location - 15N 74W (Per at this time)
Station 42058 - Central Caribbean 15.09 N 75.06 W
Supplemental Measurements Highest 1 minute Wind Speed:
Time (GMT) WSPD WDIR
0601 33.4 kts ESE ( 104 deg true )
|
Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
|
|
Re: 94L's run
The HWRF run shows something similar, but on a very different track:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.c...;hour=Animation
I'm thinking and HWRF are both picking up on high SSTs in the gulf. Much higher than in the Caribbean, and for a fast moving storm, the depth of the warm water has less impact (depth is shown in the Z26 map, and affects the HHC map).
See SST26 and HHC maps here: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/all_watl.html
The biggest question is track. takes it into the Yucatan, preventing any chance of significant development. brings it into the gulf, on about the same track as the HWRF. is the eastern outlier of these major models.
If you want to see all the major model tracks: http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/ (currently 94L is frame 3, but it could change)
Speaking of model runs, anyone know anything about the GHM model? I haven't noticed it before, and it's listed over at : http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/hur/storm_1/00/index_hurpage.shtml
Edit: PS - I like Avila's comment on Bertha in the latest forecast discussion  - "CONSQUENTLY...BERTHA HAS TO WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO BECOME ...FAMOUS LAST WORDS. "
Edited by Random Chaos (Sat Jul 19 2008 07:49 AM)
|
weatherguy08
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 60
Loc: Miami, Fla.
|
|
It really looks like 94L is feeling the effects of that upper-level low over Cuba. Models show this low breaking down during the next few days. Maybe this will open the door for development in the western Caribbean Sea.
|
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
|
|
94L
not sure about tonight's upgrade... i'm just having a hard time figuringout what the upper level low ahead is going to do... and it seems to be the major factor in my book right now... we have TS force winds to the east and north of the low.... south of jamica... with the high in the atlantic helping...
UPDATE: Tonights run on the 00Z pkg.. has invest for 94L.... but all models bring it to TS with the next 24hrs...SHIPS even goes up to Hurricane Forecast at the end of the run... 77kts in96hr
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0010 UTC SUN JUL 20 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942008) 20080720 0000 UTC
--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Sat Jul 19 2008 09:22 PM)
|
weatherguy08
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 60
Loc: Miami, Fla.
|
|
Decided I should put this in the forecast lounge as opposed to the main forum.
I don't know how much significance this has, but in the 's recon plan for tomorrow (Sunday), the points where they want the recon to investigate are to the north of the model guidance. Perhaps they have a different thinking on the forecast track of this system than the models. Any thoughts?
I'm not sure, but the circulation maybe moving more to the north, around 17 north 79 west.
|
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1237
Loc: South Florida
|
|
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html
Also..when you look at a wide basin view on IR or a WV the first and almost only thing that jumps on you is 94.
It's developing a signature of sorts too. Moves more fluid, tumbling look to it and a spin and it's huge compared to
Cristobal.
If it finds a way to fight the ULL off... watch out.
--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
|
Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
|
|
Latest IR and Watervapor runs at SSD are showing an impressive core developing over Grand Cayman. Very cold cloudtops. SSMIS (at ) just got a microwave overpass and doesn't show a consolidated internal structure yet, but with this large, deep convection now taking over, we could see rapid consolidation.
The model runs, such as the 06Z run, are locking onto the southern convective zone near central america that has just about died out now, rather than the one over Grand Cayman. The tracks from for that run take this system over the tip of the Yucatan. If one were to guess that the new center would track a similar, but parallel, path, we could extrapolate that the system would thread the area between the Yucatan and Cuba, keeping the core intact for entry into the gulf. I'm thinking, thus, that this storm may be more powerful than the various intensity models are showing, as they are based on tracking the wrong internal low of the system.
Reference:
IR (JSL colors)
IR (Funktop colors)
IR (AVN colors)
IR (Ramsdis area coverage)
Water Vapor
SSMIS data
Model tracks, using the southern core that is dieing (see Frame 3)
Edit: adding reference links
Our morning view of 94L:
[
Edited by danielw (Sun Jul 20 2008 12:41 PM)
|
islandtime
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 6
|
|
How will the ULL to the NW (positioned over the Yucatan) of Dolly affect her movement? I have noticed at times that the low seems to be almost pulling 94L/Dolly northwards. Could this ULL pull Dolly through the gap and lessen the chance of interacting with the Yucatan?
|
dat_weather_guy
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 1
|
|
Seems to me that the circulation 'center'  is plotted too far south and west on the map compared to what one sees on the RGB long image loop.
|
Storm Cooper
User
Reged:
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
|
|
What a place to relax! A long range forecast for Dolly for me would bring her ashore just north of the MX/TX border by about 30 miles being hardly a Cat 1 Hurricane.
--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
|
ritavet
Unregistered
|
|
From the hazy clouds here it looks like they're running HAARP. I think it's headed to Texas.
|
MikeC
Admin
Reged:
Posts: 4635
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
Model runs are a bit further north this morning, but I just don't trust them, especially since Dolly is so weak and the ridge of high pressure is so strong. As for me, I'm going for the more westerly solution right now.
|
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
|
|
northside of Brownsville, TX... sadly if the storm slows as forecasted... then the farther north i think it would move... cat2-3... as of right now.. tonight she should get her act together.
--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Jul 21 2008 07:21 PM)
|
Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
|
|
Looking at Dolly I feel that she still be a TS when she makes land fall on the Mex/TX area.
|
MikeC
Admin
Reged:
Posts: 4635
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
As of tonight I'm still thinking generally more westward, it's starting to get more organized, but slowly and it could gain more overnight, but I'm still somewhat "bearish" wish it. My guess now is South of Tex/Mex border as a cat 1. Don't take my word for it, listed to the National Hurricane Center.
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
