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Area off the Southeast US Coast has a 10% to develop, either way will be wet in parts of the Southeast/NC this weekend. Beryl gone but not forgotten in Houston area where power outages still are widespread.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 4 (Beryl) , Major: 317 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 317 (Idalia) Major: 317 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2008 News Talkbacks

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LoisCane
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Re: 94L [Re: Hugh]
      #80745 - Sun Jul 20 2008 11:00 AM

Considering data just came in from Recon they have to issue an advisory, a public discussion. These things don't write themselves. Imagine they could go with TD status but info coming in screams Storm and several sites including NRL have put up the D name..

Give them time to get it right. They aren't blogging or posting here and a lot of data needs to be shared and dispersed.

Amazing how we can follow along now days as if we are on recon.

She isn't going west by my eye and you can watch the water vapor loop for hints as to where she will go but the IR really is showing a developing storm.

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html

good loop and doesn't go far enough to the east to distract you looking at future ways.

also..show's what's up over the US that can affect her

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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cieldumort
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Re: 94L [Re: Random Chaos]
      #80746 - Sun Jul 20 2008 11:03 AM

Quote:

I'm not quite sure what Recon is doing.
They so far have not passed anywhere close to the core of the storm.
See attached screenshot from Google Earth.




Sounds like a pretty good reason not to use that program. Here's a link to a direct data feed.

As for advisories not yet being up on "Dolly," NHC might have three named storms on their hands to write advisories up on all about the same time, and could be running a little behind, is all.


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
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Re: 94L [Re: LoisCane]
      #80747 - Sun Jul 20 2008 11:03 AM

Bear in mind that the 11 am advisory packages have yet to come out for Cristobal and Bertha too. I'm sure things are a little hectic in the NHC right now.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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Hugh
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Re: 94L [Re: LoisCane]
      #80748 - Sun Jul 20 2008 11:04 AM

True LoisCane... but given that the advisory time has arrived... I would have thought that the NHC would issue a STDS in the interim, to say "Recent reports from hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that Tropical Storm Debby is forming in the northwest Caribbean Sea. A special advisory will be issued within the hour."
They've done that in the past in similar situations.

Having said that, they're just now issuing the entire Atlantic package, so maybe Dolly's advisory is just a few minutes late. NRL now has 04L.DOLLY posted but no track yet.


--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Sun Jul 20 2008 11:07 AM)


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


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Re: 94L [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #80749 - Sun Jul 20 2008 11:08 AM

Bertha and Cristobal have their forecast discussions up at NHC. Not much detail on either, much less than normal. Bertha is basically non-existent discussion. Must be spending all their time on 04L's writeup.

Per the google earth data: that actually matches the data from the data direct link. The vortex recon was way SW of the satellite based IR core, and I compared it to the lat/lon in the HDOB and recon statments.


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Hugh
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Re: 94L [Re: Random Chaos]
      #80750 - Sun Jul 20 2008 11:12 AM

Well considering that Bertha was officially declared extratropical with this package, it's not surprising to have a very short discussion. There's not much you can say about it that hasn't been said already.
Cristobal looks pathetic right now, too, and even though it's closer to the CONUS it's moving away from land. So all attention should be focused on the new gal in town, so to speak.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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cieldumort
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Re: 94L [Re: Random Chaos]
      #80751 - Sun Jul 20 2008 11:15 AM

Little bit of shear still impacting the cyclone, keeping the deepest convection offset to the east of the LLCC.

"Dolly" is in a squeeze play between the ULL to its northwest and another approaching ULL from its east. It may or may not continue to be afflicted with shear all the way to its ultimate destination. On the other hand, it does have a fledgling ULH sitting above it, which could yet expand somewhat, especially with continued deep convection.


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
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Re: 94L [Re: cieldumort]
      #80752 - Sun Jul 20 2008 11:28 AM

Are they going to wait and hold off and issue a special advisory package at 12? This is rather strange, even on relative short notice.

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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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ftlaudbob
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Re: 94L [Re: cieldumort]
      #80753 - Sun Jul 20 2008 11:29 AM

Looks to me like this thing is really getting it's act together.It also appears that it is happening at a fast pace.I think it will skip TD status and go right to TS Dolly.I also noticed the shear drop off someone else mentioned.This July is starting to remind me of July 2005,as far as activity.

--------------------

Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .


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Texas Cane Tracker
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Re: 94L [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #80754 - Sun Jul 20 2008 11:39 AM

This system (Dolly) certainly appears to be much further North than the coordinates that were reported when this was classifed as 94L . Will this apparent shift to the north be reflected in the forecast track of the system, or is this simply energy displaced from the center?

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WeatherNut
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Re: 94L [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #80755 - Sun Jul 20 2008 11:41 AM Attachment (201 downloads)

Well NRL has it designated as Dolly.
update: Its on NHC site now

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since

Edited by WeatherNut (Sun Jul 20 2008 11:44 AM)


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
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Re: 94L [Re: WeatherNut]
      #80756 - Sun Jul 20 2008 11:43 AM

The marine advisory just came out. Located at 18.4N 84.2 W. Winds of 40knts, gusts to 50 knts.

Thats all so far.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


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Re: 94L [Re: WeatherNut]
      #80757 - Sun Jul 20 2008 11:44 AM

NHC Tropical Storm Dolly up. Not much detail yet. Looks like they are using trac data from the old core, not the new northern core.

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scottsvb
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Re: 94L [Re: Random Chaos]
      #80758 - Sun Jul 20 2008 11:55 AM

Dolly Finally...I mean Finally...made it down to the surface late last night.....and once it did...it made it more NW turn later than the GFDL model expected. Once it made it down to the surface..thunderstorm now are finally trying to fire around a better defined circulation that was once a broad LLC....earlier the disturbance was mostly in the midlevels. Dolly should move on more of a southern route towards the Yucitan and then NE Mexico. Texas isnt out of the woods yet though.

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Hugh
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Re: 94L [Re: scottsvb]
      #80759 - Sun Jul 20 2008 12:01 PM

Quote:

Dolly Finally...I mean Finally...made it down to the surface late last night.....and once it did...it made it more NW turn later than the GFDL model expected. Once it made it down to the surface..thunderstorm now are finally trying to fire around a better defined circulation that was once a broad LLC....earlier the disturbance was mostly in the midlevels. Dolly should move on more of a southern route towards the Yucitan and then NE Mexico. Texas isnt out of the woods yet though.




I don't quite follow this logic... Dolly made a NW turn, yet it's going to take a more southern route from here on out? Why?

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Texas Definitely In It..check out 5 day cone [Re: scottsvb]
      #80760 - Sun Jul 20 2008 12:03 PM

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_wv_ls_0.html

Also... it's been following the ULL which is currenly around the West Tip of Cuba which makes you think.

Expect new models to have new tracks and remember they have watches up so there will be a 2pm locational advisory

Am thinking the first real discussion will be at 5. Think this was sort of like an Alert Upgrade vs a 11 Advisory.

Probably good as they are still getting data from recon and then they have to evaluate it and talk it over, etc.

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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Random Chaos
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Re: Texas Definitely In It..check out 5 day cone [Re: LoisCane]
      #80761 - Sun Jul 20 2008 12:07 PM Attachment (189 downloads)

I've attached the NHC reported center on a IR map. It looks like they took the hurricane hunter's vortex recon of the area SW of the storm. Guess my big question is: why were they investigating down there rather than where the big convection flare up and the apparent rotational center is? Is there something I'm missing?

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Beaumont, TX
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Re: Texas Definitely In It..check out 5 day cone [Re: LoisCane]
      #80762 - Sun Jul 20 2008 12:10 PM

Parts of Texas are in the cone for later down the road. Only predicting TS status. Getting interesting for sure.

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scottsvb
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Re: Texas Definitely In It..check out 5 day cone [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #80764 - Sun Jul 20 2008 12:32 PM

Hugh I was referencing the GFDL model which had Dolly going to LA or northeast TX....but since it never developed as fast as the GFDL...it will not make it that far north....also land interaction will keep it down some until later Monday...keeping this weaker...longer..and heading towards NE MX.

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craigm
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Re: 94L [Re: Hugh]
      #80765 - Sun Jul 20 2008 12:33 PM

I'm not seeing nw motion. I think you can pick out vort center on rgb with recent flareup right over the center around 18.8N - 84W
- main convection is northeast of center giving illusion of a more northward component. I'm seeing wnw motion. I think models will verify just further north than where they are initialized now. Texas and mexico need to keep an eye on this one.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

--------------------
Why I'm here:
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