Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


A few swirls trying to earn an Invest tag in the final days of the 2021 Season. Their environment is not ideal for development.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 76 (Nicholas) , Major: 92 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1146 (Michael) Major: 1146 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2008 Forecast Lounge

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | >> (show all)
Jester
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 5
Loc: St Pete FL
Re: Navigating Florida [Re: watchinout]
      #82357 - Tue Aug 19 2008 07:01 PM

I don't post often, as a matter of fact I think this is my second post in about four years or so. I hope I'm in the right forum for this question. Being in the Tampa bay area it is understandable that I watched Fay with great interest. Long story short, the local mets have something called VIPIR that seems to have nailed Fays track down to the mile. Is this a fluke? The spaghetti plots were coming together towards landfall but VIPIR had the track all along.


Should I trust VIPIR?

Best,
J.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
John C
Unregistered




Re: Navigating Florida [Re: Jester]
      #82360 - Tue Aug 19 2008 07:19 PM

A local station in Orlando is saying the same thing. But trust is a strong word. VIPIR got 2 tropical storms right and all the rest wrong. Not to good on Hurricanes. Trust the NHC when in doubt

Edited by John C (Tue Aug 19 2008 07:22 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
engicedave
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 70
Loc:
Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast [Re: MikeC]
      #82362 - Tue Aug 19 2008 07:27 PM

Channel 9 (ABC) weather guy in Orlando, Tom Terry, says he doesn't think it'll make the Atlantic and he also said he doesn't think it'll track as far north as the NHC is forecasting

Moved to the Forecast Lounge

Edited by Storm Cooper (Tue Aug 19 2008 07:35 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Navigating Florida [Re: Jester]
      #82364 - Tue Aug 19 2008 07:30 PM

Other than the Ask/Tell Forum I think you posted in the right place during this event. VIPIR is a radar/model product. Our local Met wxman007 can for sure fill you in as his station has VIPIR and he had a hand on its development. I believe it is a spin off of the AF MM5 model? You may want to PM Jason as I don't recall him speaking about VIPIR as forecasts goes.....too many models and too many solutions right now...

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4426
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Navigating Florida [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #82366 - Tue Aug 19 2008 07:33 PM

Comedy G F S Ensemble seriously, hey kids have crayons and draw yourself some model lines is what this looks like now.

The new GFDL, on the other hand keeps it over the Atlantic longer and then moves it in near Savannah, with the easterly trek that Fay seems to be having, this is a lot more likely than any of the GFS runs, (They mostly are already off)

I still think the NHC's track is the best bet for now.




Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Navigating Florida [Re: MikeC]
      #82369 - Tue Aug 19 2008 08:05 PM

interesting that the GFDL for invest 94 shows Fay heading into the Gulf, and the GFDL for Fay shows a more north path..but the GFS ensemble seems pretty close as of now..should be fun to watch..nothing like the 5 day cone stretching from Bowling Green KY to 250 miles south of Pensacola........

(Post moved - Forecasts from long range models belong in the Forecast Lounge)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Aug 23 2008 10:18 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Re: Navigating Florida [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #82384 - Tue Aug 19 2008 08:59 PM

VIPIR is really two things. The software itself is a met data display platform...it was designed for the display of radar data originally, but was adapted for use with other datasets.

The VIPIR model is a custom version of the Penn State MM5 that has been modified by Baron Services, the group that created VIPIR. It has done very well with some storms, and not so well with others. It is a model, and all model data should be evaluated on a storm by storm basis...all of our forecast models have had good storms and bad storms.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Jester
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 5
Loc: St Pete FL
Re: Navigating Florida *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: wxman007]
      #82393 - Tue Aug 19 2008 09:19 PM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Manchester, NH
Re: Hurricane Watches up for North Florida, Georgia as Tropical Storm Fay Moves North Northeast [Re: MikeC]
      #82401 - Tue Aug 19 2008 09:32 PM

Okay, I have been gone for the last few hours and have come up with a few questions myself in regards to Tropical Storm Fay. Anyone can answer them, I just would like them confirmed.

1. Why is Fay Stationary? She is in the same exact place she was when I left at around 6:30pm EST. Is there a meteorological reason she is not going anywhere?

2. There has been some talk about Fay coming back toward us. What does this mean? Why would a Tropical Storm come back the way it entered? In this case, would she be much severe?

3. What are the chances of fay sticking around and the other Invest catching up to her? I know this sounds stupid on my part and all, but what is the likelihood of this happening?

4. Why are all of the weather plots just throwing Fay all over the place? Where does the NHC, UKMET and other data plotters or what ever you call them get their data from? How do they predict where the storm will be? Why are they changing so sporadically?

Lastly, what is Fay's overall plans? Things look like she is trying to strengthen but is having trouble doing so. She is defiantly one of my weirdest storms I've ever tracked, and quite interesting for my first storm. I have another thought on my mind. Why is is still Windy in Fort Myers? Were getting the same tropical conditions we have been getting all day. Wind Gusts are the same as they were when Fay was here. The rain has stopped since the sun went down. Any probable reasons for all of this?

(at this rate, I am going to expect the unexpected with Fay. She seems to be one of the wildest storms anyone has seen, and tracked. After all, she did strengthen over land, as well as form an eye that was visible on satellite imagery over land as well. I think I'm safe to say that no one is quite sure what to expect with Fay. Am I right in saying this?)

Thats it for now. I suppose.

--------------------


Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Radilman1
Unregistered




Re: Navigating Florida [Re: Jester]
      #82403 - Tue Aug 19 2008 09:37 PM

Looks like Fay has taken a little jog to the east: http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=mlb&overlays=11101111&product=N0R&loop=yes

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
mcgowanmc
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 96
Loc: NW ARKANSAS
Re: Navigating Florida [Re: pcola]
      #82450 - Wed Aug 20 2008 08:40 AM

I say it's sitting here.

All day.

Then moving W, maybe WNW.

Daytona gets 15".

Apalachicola Bay by Friday.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

http://i.flhurricane.com/images/2008/clark6latest.png

Look at the cone of THC's forecast.

The weirdest TS ever. ;}


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Captain Jed
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 7
Loc: Tampa Bay
Re: Navigating Florida [Re: mcgowanmc]
      #82454 - Wed Aug 20 2008 09:07 AM

Fay is a dud.I called it a fizzle/drizzle Sun 130 pm.Its never had any legs,cant get it together,just a nice rainmaker,which Okeeechobee needed,as well as the Glades/Central Fl.Its still just going to be a rainmaker for Fl.Scott svb as usual,in my opinion,year after year,nails them.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Bad Zebra
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1
Re: Navigating Florida [Re: Captain Jed]
      #82462 - Wed Aug 20 2008 09:47 AM

Wouldn't call it a dud where I'm sitting...trees down in Melbourne, scattered power outages throughout Brevard County. Several utility poles in the process of being replaced after being snapped. A good portion of my fencing is now layng on the lawn. Tornado ripped apart a manufactured home community Tuesday (surprise, surprise). and my pool's overflowing.

Edited by Bad Zebra (Wed Aug 20 2008 09:50 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
pepper
Unregistered




Re: Fay Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #82469 - Wed Aug 20 2008 10:26 AM

Any chance of percepitation and winds around hattiesburg ms?




Quote:

This is the "lounge" for 92L, the wave in the Central Atlantic. The place for just saying what you think. Don't take mine or anyone else's word for it here.

My guess is that whatever comes of 92L (if it develops or not) will remain mostly south (especially if it stays weaker now) and affect some of the islands and approach the Southeast or enter the Gulf at some point. It's the time of year where I start to take things like this a bit more serious, but any real discussion of it probably won't happen until we determine if it will form or not.

Interestingly the discussion for Houston this mornng mentions this system and they are curious to see if it'll enter the gulf.

Quote:


LASTLY...THE TROPICS LOOK TO BE GETTING MORE ACTIVE. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SYSTEM APPROACHING FL/CUBA
BY AUGUST 19TH. CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP. 500 MB FLOW SHOWS A BREAK IN THE RIDGE AND A WEAK TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THIS TIME...THE SYSTEM LOOKS
LIKE IT`LL TURN TO THE NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF. BEARS WATCH.








Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Fay Forecast Lounge [Re: pepper]
      #82488 - Wed Aug 20 2008 12:23 PM

well if Fay is off the coast now, there is still the possibility of that 4th florida landfall if it re-enters the gulf at some point..that has to be a first

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
sharless
Unregistered




Re: Fay Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #82495 - Wed Aug 20 2008 02:00 PM

What are the local's 'gut' feeling about taking a booked vacation in Charlotte's Harbor next week or do I stay home in sunny CA? Have to fly through Atlanta, GA/Ft. Myers on 23rd & 30th...

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Fay Forecast Lounge [Re: sharless]
      #82501 - Wed Aug 20 2008 02:14 PM

why not go..next week Fay will be far, far away........

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Captain Jed
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 7
Loc: Tampa Bay
Re: Fay Forecast Lounge [Re: sharless]
      #82512 - Wed Aug 20 2008 03:38 PM

California-Cleared for a landing,come on in,its nice now!

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Robert
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 354
Loc: Southeast, FL
Re: Fay Forecast Lounge [Re: Captain Jed]
      #82517 - Wed Aug 20 2008 04:07 PM

Well Gonna throw this out there for the short term. Fay sits sround breaking some florida rainfall 24 hour records. then the high coming digs south ahead fay forcing her into a Cyclonic loop probably a slight jog east followed by SE, WSW, W,WNW i will say it probably go's back in around vero to jupiter.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
sharless
Unregistered




Re: Fay Forecast Lounge [Re: Captain Jed]
      #82527 - Wed Aug 20 2008 05:46 PM

Capt. Jed-Your bio says resident sceptic, so if you think it's good to go, Cal. gals are coming...hope the storm brought lots of shells to shore, cause shelling & birdwatching is what I like to do. I appreciate the input.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 1 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 222287

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center