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News Talkback >> 2008 Forecast Lounge

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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
Re: 92L transitioning [Re: MikeC]
      #81321 - Thu Aug 14 2008 09:00 AM

With regards to the models, I would agree that current tendancies would lean now - or are favoring recurvature. If in fact 92L is deepening, than I would have to be even more inclined that motion would be distinctly tied to mid level flow rather than surface or shallow flow. Longer term guidance seems to want to possibly hook a system back NW'ward possibly towards the Carolina's or Mid Atlantic seaboard. "If" such building of a ridge were to occur, than wherever any such TC might ( if still close to the U.S. coastline ), such a possible west ot NW motion could ensue. Here too, is where model casting is really tricky business because even temporary stalling due to a system deepening, or a less anticipated COL, would affect forward speed of motion, thus also impacting future motion.

To my eyes, there truly does exist "such as reason" why 92L may never impact the U.S. mainland. It's current appearant westward motion ( 270-280 degrees ) would seem to have 92L on a mountain climbing excursion. Any disruptive interaction with Puerto Rico or even moreso with Hispanola, could entirely disrupt or destroy the systems circulation. This looks to me to be perhaps more likely than quick development to be followed by recurvature.


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SeaMule
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 64
Loc: Fairhope, Al...on the coast
dvorak shmorak..Fay is on the way.... [Re: MikeC]
      #81322 - Thu Aug 14 2008 09:06 AM

It is already a depression...imho....anyone ever see such a nice anti-cyclonic ridge above a 'wave" before...

they will have their hands full with this one...


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
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Re: 92L transitioning [Re: weathernet]
      #81323 - Thu Aug 14 2008 09:09 AM

Agree. Its current path takes it right over those two islands. We need to see how that plays out before we can really make any good guesses on its fate.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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lbvbl
Unregistered




92L [Re: MikeC]
      #81327 - Thu Aug 14 2008 11:34 AM

So based on the latest tracks, a northward turn is expected, which would result in FL being avoided altogether. I am from SE FL, and I'm just wondering what the chances are of this system affecting my area. Yesterday the tracks had me more nervous, but there seems to be a trend in that the tracks continue to shift to the east.

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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Re: 92L [Re: lbvbl]
      #81329 - Thu Aug 14 2008 11:40 AM

Quote:

So based on the latest tracks, a northward turn is expected, which would result in FL being avoided altogether. I am from SE FL, and I'm just wondering what the chances are of this system affecting my area. Yesterday the tracks had me more nervous, but there seems to be a trend in that the tracks continue to shift to the east.





It is not even a TD yet,so the models are generally not that accurate at this stage of a system.I myself don't really pay that much attention to the models till it becomes a TS.It is inching closer,so it needs to be watched closely.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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lbvbl
Unregistered




Re: 92L [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #81330 - Thu Aug 14 2008 11:47 AM

So what will determine at what point the system turns north?

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
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Re: 92L [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #81331 - Thu Aug 14 2008 11:49 AM

vis satellite shows the LLC exposed to the WNW of the area of convection and passing over Anguilla heading about 275dg. I dont think they will make this a TD until the convection fires over the LLC. Winds are in excess of 40kts and it would probably bypass the TD status when this happens. I guess they could still upgrade it early if they feel they want to give out TS warnings to Puerto Rico.

Longer range is up in the air. I still follow the GFDL, and even though model trends 1 way from run to run, sometimes they jump right back to where they were predicting 24hrs ago.


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saluki
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Reged: Sun
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Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FL
Re: 92L [Re: lbvbl]
      #81332 - Thu Aug 14 2008 11:54 AM

Quote:

So what will determine at what point the system turns north?




Steering currents will play a big role. If a high-pressure ridge is in place, the storm would be steered more to the west. If there is weakness in the ridging, a more northward path is likely. I'm not a met, but hopefully this rather simple explanation is somewhat accurate.

Edited by saluki (Thu Aug 14 2008 11:55 AM)


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lbvbl
Unregistered




Re: 92L [Re: saluki]
      #81333 - Thu Aug 14 2008 11:59 AM

Yes it does, thanks. Does anyone know which tracks have a history of being most accurate?

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TVGuy
Unregistered




Question for the lounge.... [Re: saluki]
      #81335 - Thu Aug 14 2008 12:04 PM

Hello there...

I read your forums all the time and have for the past few years. I work in the media and it's part of my job to send crews out to cover these things so I have to keep up on all the projections so I know where we have to be.
My first question is--what model do you all think has proven to be more accurate with past storms? Most seem to agree with each other but then there always seem to be 2 or so that completely differ.
Thanks for your help!


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
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Re: Question for the lounge.... [Re: TVGuy]
      #81336 - Thu Aug 14 2008 12:10 PM

Quote:

Hello there...

I read your forums all the time and have for the past few years. I work in the media and it's part of my job to send crews out to cover these things so I have to keep up on all the projections so I know where we have to be.
My first question is--what model do you all think has proven to be more accurate with past storms? Most seem to agree with each other but then there always seem to be 2 or so that completely differ.
Thanks for your help!




I like the GFDL model.

The last couple frames of the WV,lead me to believe it may skip TD status and go right to TS Faye.Take a look:
www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 941
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Question for the lounge.... [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #81339 - Thu Aug 14 2008 12:20 PM

Even the floater vis loop looks like a strong TD or minimal TS. We'll see when the recon gets in there soon.

--------------------
Michael

PWS


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: Question for the lounge.... [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #81340 - Thu Aug 14 2008 12:35 PM

when a storm gets classified, go with the GFDL unless its the outliner of models and also if the NHC says disregard it. Sometimes it will have a bad feedback of data in it (like any model can). Anyways GFDL model with the ECMWF and GFS blending in.

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
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Re: Question for the lounge.... [Re: scottsvb]
      #81341 - Thu Aug 14 2008 12:39 PM

everyone seems to miss the point that the LLC is exposed over Anguilla. Until it fires convection (which it will eventually) near the LLC...it wont be classified unless, #1 they want to give out T.S Warnings to Puerto Rico or 2, the Recon finds another LLC in the area of convection, but with saying that, the LLF shows the exposed center to be the dominate 1.

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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 941
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Question for the lounge.... [Re: scottsvb]
      #81342 - Thu Aug 14 2008 12:53 PM

In the last frames, that LLC seems to have dissipated. It's looking like it may be reforming under the convection. When is the recon due in the system?

--------------------
Michael

PWS


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CDMOrlando
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 57
Loc: seminole cnty florida
Re: Question for the lounge.... [Re: scottsvb]
      #81343 - Thu Aug 14 2008 01:01 PM

Quote:

when a storm gets classified, go with the GFDL unless its the outliner of models and also if the NHC says disregard it. Sometimes it will have a bad feedback of data in it (like any model can). Anyways GFDL model with the ECMWF and GFS blending in.




Scott is right.

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
959 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2008

AND THE NOAA DROPSONDES RELEASED IN VICINITY OF THE LOW THIS MORNING WERE BEFORE MODELS INITIALIZATION. THEREFORE...INITIALIZATION ERRORS COULD BECOME AN ISSUE.


USED YESTERDAYS COORDINATED TRACK FOR THE POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM
OVER THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...WITH A SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION FOR THE
DAY 7 POINT IN LIGHT OF THE WIDE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. THE 00Z
GEM GLOBAL SENDS THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF CUBA...REPRESENTING THE LEFT
SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL ENVELOPE...WITH THE 00Z AND 06Z GFS
SHEARING THE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS BERMUDA DEFINING THIS
GUIDANCE TO THE RIGHT. WILL HAVE ANOTHER COORDINATION WITH TPC
TODAY AND TAKE A FRESH LOOK AT THIS SYSTEM.


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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
Re: Question for the lounge.... [Re: scottsvb]
      #81345 - Thu Aug 14 2008 01:10 PM

Not missing the point...just missing the center you were speaking of. I think the center has reformed at 18N 61W. Outflow is starting to expand in all quadrants. The inflow is also now moving in the direction of the MLC at the above location. I think this is already Fay.

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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 941
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Question for the lounge.... [Re: WeatherNut]
      #81347 - Thu Aug 14 2008 01:23 PM

I'm seeing the same thing and your coords appear to be right on. Looks like a TS to me, too. Also looks to be spinning up rather quickly.

--------------------
Michael

PWS


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mikethewreck
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 52
Loc: Treasure Coast FL
Fay? [Re: WeatherNut]
      #81348 - Thu Aug 14 2008 01:24 PM

I agree, 92L looks like it may have gotten its act together.

Living in Florida, I have been watching this storm like a hawk. Does it look like the re-formation of 92L/Fay brought it south enough that the mountains of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola might get a chance to rip her apart before she gets up closer to my neighborhood? (Not wishing a hit on the islands!)

Still remember Andrew going north of the islands and then being driven in to South Florida by the Bermuda high...

--------------------
Earliest memory Hurricane Cleo!
Went under Hurricane Gloria!


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Re: Fay? [Re: mikethewreck]
      #81349 - Thu Aug 14 2008 01:28 PM

My two cents:

I think the LLC has reformed,and we now have Faye.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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