flanewscameraman
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 33
Loc: Palm Beach County, FLA
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It appears to the untrained eye that we are beginning to see the early formation of TD. All bets are off on where this may wind up in both intensity and direction at the moment, but it is interesting to see how the convection has persisted tonight. I believe the next few days will be interesting as we all watch how this plays out.
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weathernet
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
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Nice to be starting to get some data from recon; on practically every resolution early this morning, cannot help but be impressed by the maintaining and improving outflow. Overall structure certainly giving the appearance of a more vertically stacked and possibly forming depression. Though sounds as if no such data has yet been offered up to corroborate by recon as of yet. Providing that the upper level shear is truly lessening, than may only be time before surface winds start working down to the surface. Would not be surprised if continued recon passes found a tight 1007mb pressure.
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Robert
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 366
Loc: Southeast, FL
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They already found 1007.8 out ahead of the system just to the west of convection with little winds switch from NE to SE. Its a 1009 under the convection
Time:
04:31:00Z
Coordinates:
17.88N 60.20W
Acft. Static Air Press:
594.4 mb (~ 17.55 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt:
4,524 meters (~ 14,843 feet)
Extrap. SFC. Press:
1007.8 mb (~ 29.76 inHg)
D-value:
-
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s):
From 49° at 13 knots (From the NE at ~ 14.9 mph)
Air Temp:
4.2°C (~ 39.6°F)
Dew Pt:
-2.2°C (~ 28.0°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind:
14 knots (~ 16.1 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) SFC. Wind:
9 knots (~ 10.3 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate:
0 mm/hr (~ 0 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
Edited by Robert (Thu Aug 14 2008 02:38 AM)
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weathernet
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
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Hmmm, sounds like not quite "co-located" surface to mid level, but given the continued bursting of convection, would anticipate perhaps yet an additonal couple millibar pressure fall. Perhaps "if and when" recon gets a 1005 / 1006mb pressure ( perhaps not on this mission ), than better indication of the systems improved vertical structure. At such a time, would anticipate surface winds to then perhaps substantiate upgrade to depression. Water vapor images are seemingly not depicting the same dry air, though still appears to have a lingering ULL impact by what appears as a feature to its east. Looks like upper levels improving as 92L progresses west to WNW. Other observation being BD curve showing nice cloud tops around -70 degrees in current convective burst.
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cieldumort
Moderator
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Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx
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The current mission into 92L is certainly shedding a good bit of light on things. There are some hints that the low could be right smack in the process of closing back off at the surface overnight tonight. Obviously, should it be able to do so, especially while also blowing up all of this deep convection pretty much right on top of the location of lowest pressure, a tropical depression could be forming fortuitously right before the mission's eyes.
Unlike prior nights, 92L is now traveling through a much less hostile environment: The ULL to its west-northwest continues to scoot at a seemingly faster clip than 92 is, and may be weakening. An upper-level anticyclone sitting atop the disturbance looks to be setting up shop, and coming along for the ride. Dust in the vicinity is in far less supply, and without the previous levels of shear to shoot bullets of this killer SAL into the mix, the dust plague out ahead of it looks to be greatly diminished as an impediment to further development.
At this time, judging from the recon data just in, buoy and ship reports, it appears that 92L is still represented by a fairly robust mid-level low, with a now only slightly offset, broad surface low of around 1007-1008mb. Winds are coming up, which is also something we hadn't seen much of previously. It certainly looks like the Leeward Islands might very well be in for tropical depression-like conditions, whether or not it makes the cut by the time it (probably) crosses over (at least a portion of) them.
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