craigm
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Palm City, Florida
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Looks like an eye but it's not. You need surface pressures much lower than this to develop eyewall structure.
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Rookie from 33913
Registered User
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Thanks Craigm
You must have posted that while I was asking the question.
(In the future, please use the Private Message capability when you want to pass on your thanks to another User.)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Aug 15 2008 03:54 AM)
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charlottefl
Weather Hobbyist
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92L has to thread the needle so to speak. If it goes north or south I think it stands a good chance of developing. If it continues moving west though, it has some serious mountain ranges to contend with. Convection appears to be flaring up closer to the LLC, should be interesting tonight.
Edited by charlottefl (Fri Aug 15 2008 12:39 AM)
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javlin
Weather Master
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Loc: Biloxi,MS
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Looks like what energy our MLC had earlier today has finally caught up with the LLC out front it looks like.You have to give the the nod for holding off on a name like many of us probably would have by satellite interpetation and picked the MLC over the LLC out front.I do wonder about the due W movement and as Clark mentioned a diviation S and you might as well throw the models out and that is starting to look like a possibility,then will there be anything to note in 48hrs??The LLC (almost an eddy at times) has moved just about due W all day fading in and out of view.She is really looking better tonight than today I think becoming more compact and I think finally stacking.
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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javlin, was just going to make the same comment. Here's a link that shows it:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
OTOH, its continued march due west towards the islands makes it future more in doubt.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Colleen, glad to see you're still around, Yeah, I'm a bit nervous about this system, being here on the east coast. However, the models will still change over time (the next few days) and even the pros at the HPC have low confidence in where this may end up. The Euro has a bad solution for me (taking it up the east coast). But some models have it staying offshore the east coast of Florida. This is still 4/5 days away and a lot will change, heck, this could even end up in the GOM. But it will approach the peninsula at some point early next week. Let's hope it stays out to sea.
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
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Loc: Longwood, FL
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Convection has just exploded in the 00:45 UTC infrared image. It really seems to have shaken its previous symetry and is taking on a whole new form.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html
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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)
Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67
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jessiej
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Pembroke Pines, Fl
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The models seemed to have picked up onto something. They have shifted the projection way to the east in the Bahamas, and hooking away from Florida.
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Katrina 2005
Wilma 2005
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Israel
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The models have gone back and forth every day. Don't put any real stock into the model runs right now until it starts developing. Right now, its wait and see.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
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Loc: Atlanta, GA
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recon just left Barbados...hopefully there will be some new info soon
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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92L is really on forecast with the and ...both dont expect any big development for another 24-36hrs...it may make it up to a weak storm before then, but still as I said earlier today the LLC was out infront even though most still wanted it to be in the . This should show that even though it may look impressive on IR, the LLC needs to have thunderstorms near its center along with a full circular windfield. Having a center exposed will not upgrade a system, even if it has 50kt winds in squalls 150 miles from the LLC.
With this said, I dont see any major increase tonight into Friday. Sure it may still get classified if the LLC gets storms over it, and that could happen anytime, but it wont strengthen more than a weak TS by Friday night as it gets near 70W.
With the path of this, still follow the for best guidance. The run will change slightly from run to run but it has the overall best performance. First off it it becomes a stronger TS before 70W it will be furtherest east making the turn sooner. A weaker system heading near Cuba might take this more W towards the Keys and S Florida, if it becomes a strong TS before 75W then a turn NNW towards the central and northern bahamas will ensue. There is still some question on the strength of the ridge Saturday into Sunday over the eastern bahamas. Just alittle more heights will make the turn NW instead of NNW.
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TheOtherRick
Weather Watcher
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Yeah, they need to add what actually happened so far to the animated model plots. See which model is working best.
On the animated plot, looks like BAMM did the best. Most of the time it puts it near Puerto Rico.
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
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Loc: Atlanta, GA
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Winds in SJU right now are out of the NW. Wouldn't that imply that any type of center is north of them? My concern is that this can stay far enough away from land thus limited weakening from land
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Just a reminder to our newer users that projections based solely on model output belong in the Forecast Lounge. A more general discussion on model preference or continuity or model accuracy is fine if you can support your discussion with rationale. If you can't or if you are not sure, then the Forecast Lounge is a much better choice for model input dialogue.
Thanks,
ED
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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Erin 1995 lived all over again the middle of next week? Well the thinks so on the New Oz run. Maybe alittle stronger like Jeanne. It's (to be honest) a very plausable scenerio with the trough exiting later this weekend into early next week and getting replaced by a strong ridge from Tuesday-Friday..anything under that ridge will slide W then WNW into the Gulf.
Too many things can still happen. It could get stronger earlier before 75W and catch the trough or it could even stay weaker and move closer to cuba then approach the keys and head more W across the southern gulf later next week. We will have a better idea every 12hrs and by Sunday 12Z runs...we will have a very good idea on what is happening.
This is why we all love trying to forecast the evolvement of Tropcial systems and weather in general. !!
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Robert
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Southeast, FL
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It appers to me that we have an elipitical area low pressure slanted sw to ne with the lowest pressure south of puerto rico. It seems to be trying to consolidate off the islands south east coast. with strong convection meeting from the SW NE and SE. The Nw part semed to hit the mountian and dive south west meeting up with qaudrent below it. Id guess the center will consolidate south of the island maby stair step around it to the north coast of hati? or right into it. I think the blow up on the northern part of the island might be the mid low cut off on its own.
Edited by Robert (Fri Aug 15 2008 05:47 AM)
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Clark
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Looking at late night radar from San Juan and nearby surface observations, there appears to be a broad and weak surface circulation near or just north of the NE tip of Puerto Rico (as of 0600 UTC/2 a EDT). Base reflectivity radar scans suggest that the system remains poorly organized but does show trends toward organization, with a new mid-level vortex about 5000 - 8000 ft up forming on the NE tip of Puerto Rico near the surface circulation. If this continues and is not significantly hindered by land, it's possible that we are watching the formative stages of our sixth tropical depression and storm of the season.
Puerto Rico doesn't have the history that Hispaniola does as a tropical storm graveyard but it does have some fairly significant peaks in the middle of the island. It won't kill the disturbance but it could keep it from sufficiently organizing to let Hispaniola do a number on the disturbance. Overall, 92L is not quite as far north as I thought it might be earlier and that brings Hispaniola into the picture for changing the ballgame entirely. Ultimately, however, until it gets past Puerto Rico, I hesitate to make any significant calls here as the center can and will likely jump and reform a bit due to convective bursts and the like over the next day.
Some of the late night model runs have shifted west from the earlier ones that had shifted east, so given that plus the landmass uncertainty in the short term, now is as good of a time as any to reiterate to not take any one model run as truth. There will be fluctuations back and forth, particularly as models get a better handle on the upper level pattern (and blocking situation setting up in the western half of the US) that will steer 92L to wherever it is going to go. Nothing has changed from earlier that all from the central Gulf all the way to the southeast coast, Florida in particular, need to carefully watch the evolution of this storm over the next few days. First off, let's see what it does in the Greater Antilles -- and I pray that casualties in Hispaniola (and elsewhere) are minimized from the flooding that is likely to ensue.
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Beach
Weather Guru
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Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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Here is a link to the local Radar on the Island of PR
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
It looks like the center has moved on-shore.
Does anyone else see this?
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craigm
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Palm City, Florida
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Thats the problem with this system it does not have a closed center at the surface yet, hence no upgrade. Many mid level vortices. Weather channel described broad center of circulation skirting the north coast of PR this morning but, was mentioned without conviction. If they are correct and this diffuse center can avoid the mountains of Hispaniola and stay over open water things could get interesting as the environment improves.
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cchsweatherman
Weather Watcher
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The latest QuikSCAT image for Invest 92L shows a closed surface circulation either on the northern coast of Puerto Rico or west of the island. This is the final piece that it has been missing. Still don't know if this will be enough to classify this as Tropical Depression 6 at 11, but we will have to wait and see.
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